Displaying items by tag: demand

Thailand: Domestic cement sales are expected to decline by 5.5% year-on-year to 34.7Mt in 2025 due to a contraction in private construction, particularly new housing projects, according to local press. In the first quarter of 2025, sales rose by 9.6% to 8.8Mt. Government projects will continue to expand but at a slower pace than in 2024, which is reportedly insufficient to offset weaker private demand. Political uncertainty may delay the 2026 budget and new project bidding, which could impact demand for government construction projects from late 2025 into 2026.

Iran: Domestic cement demand fell by 8% year-on-year to 4.69Mt in July 2025, according to the Iran Cement Association. Cement output dropped by 11% year-on-year to 4.71Mt, while clinker production rose by 23% year-on-year to 6.31Mt. Cement exports grew by 1.4% during the period to 0.5Mt, but clinker exports declined by 11% to 0.5Mt.

In the first seven months of 2025, cement consumption fell by 7.3% to 34.6Mt from 37.3Mt in 2024. Cement output declined by 3.7% year-on-year to 37.8Mt, while clinker production was stable at 43.0Mt. Cement exports rose by 4.6% year-on-year to 3.37Mt, but clinker exports dropped by 21% to 3.53Mt from 4.45Mt.

The association attributed the fall in demand to a sluggish real estate market and difficult economic conditions. The government’s limits on cement production to address power shortages has also impacted production levels.

The second quarter of 2025 saw Russian GDP growth slow to 1.1% year-on-year, with a revised full-year growth forecast of 0.9%.¹ An economy bulked up on injections of military spending (budgeted at 33% of GDP in 2025)² since the invasion of Ukraine may slowly be keeling over. Faced with this eventuality, the Russian cement industry will likely be reviewing strategies not to be dragged down with the rest of the economy.

Prior to the release of the latest economic data, Russian construction had been forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% in 2026 – 2029. Drivers included anticipated investments in oil and gas, transport, airports and renewable energy.

Purely in cement terms, the data no longer appear to corroborate this outlook. Market leader Cemros expects total domestic demand to drop from 67Mt in 2024, by 10 – 15% year-on-year, to 57 – 60.3Mt in 2025. In the first half of the year, Russia consumed 28.4Mt of cement, just 4% above production volumes of 27.2Mt in the same period. Cemros cited ‘declining cement consumption’ to account for its upcoming instigation of a four-day working week at its plants across Russia from October 2025.

On 12 August 2025, Cemros spoke out about a threat to the interests of the domestic industry: increased imports from Belarus. It said that Belarus’ three-plant industry is supplying Russia with cement at a rate equivalent to the combined production volumes of two-to-three cement plants. Time to cap them, it told the government, suggesting a ceiling of 1.5Mt/yr.
The producer may have received a shock on 18 August 2025, when Belarus-based Krasnoselskstroymaterialy announced an upcoming US$100m upgrade to its 700,000t/yr Vaŭkavysk cement plant in Grobno Oblast, Belarus.

By that time, the Russian cement association, Soyuzcement, had already called for an anti-dumping investigation into all cement imports. It expects that import volumes of 3.74Mt in 2024 may rise to 5Mt/yr ‘in the near-term future.’

Lingering behind these discussions is the fact of high operating costs, partly precipitated by Russia’s continuing burden of international sanctions.

Here, the cement sector’s hopes are riding on a very particular marketing campaign: that of President Vladimir Putin on the global diplomatic circuit. He must sell his war (or peace on his terms) in a way that fends off increased international sanctions or support for Ukraine. Existing sanctions were on show at the Alaska Summit in Anchorage, US, on 15 August 2025, where the Russian leader made his pitch to US President Donald Trump – including a request for de-sanctioning, alongside various proposed punishment measures against Ukraine. Before travelling back to Moscow, the Russian delegation reportedly had to offer to pay cash for aeroplane fuel.³

Though President Trump did not secure a ceasefire, he nonetheless held back from making good on threatened new sanctions, and rated the Alaska Summit ‘10/10.’⁴ Putin might be equally pleased with the inconclusive outcome as precisely the goal of all his obfuscations. For Russia’s cement producers, costs won’t suddenly rise, but nor will they come down any time soon.

Far from sitting idly by, the industry is seeking new ways to actualise the value of its product. On 20 August 2025, Soyuzcement hosted a meeting of nine producers and four retail chains to strategise ways to increase sales of bagged cement. It will be subject to mandatory digital labelling from 1 October 2025. Discussions included the possibility of batch labelling of bags on the pallet for ease of scanning at retail outlets.

For now, producers’ online media spaces give the impression of work continuing as usual. On 18 August 2025, Cemros announced a US$186,000 renovation of buildings at its Mikhailovsk building materials plant in Volgograd Oblast.

The cement business in Russia is big, established and diffuse. Transformation has been its defining feature in the 33 years since the fall of the USSR, including in the relatively stable latter decades of that period. Should macroeconomic or geopolitical events overtake it once again, we can expect some shapeshifting – but also survival.

References

1. Reuters, ‘Russia's GDP growth slows to 1.1% in Q2, says Rosstat,’ 13 August 2025, www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-gdp-growth-slows-11-q2-says-rosstat-2025-08-13/

2. Global Data, ‘Russia Construction Market Size,’ 30 June 2025, www.globaldata.com/store/report/russia-construction-market-analysis/

3. Spiegel, ‘Russen boten Rubio zufolge Barzahlung für Betankung ihrer Flugzeuge an,’ 18 August 2025, www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/trump-putin-gipfel-russen-boten-offensichtlich-barzahlung-fuer-betankung-ihrer-flugzeuge-an-a-fdd9303c-546a-43aa-89dd-4f746b8e9df3

4. Focus, ‘Jäger deutlich: "Putin verkauft Trump eine Illusion - und hat ihn jetzt in der Hand",’ 16 August 2025, www.focus.de/politik/ausland/jaeger-putin-braucht-trump-nicht-zu-fuerchten-er-hat-trump-jetzt-in-der-hand_67785013-a14b-485c-9a4a-51755ec483fa.html

Saudi Arabia: Cement sales by the country’s 17 producers rose by 21% year-on-year to 13.1Mt in the second quarter of 2025, according to Al Yamama Cement. Local demand grew by 23% and accounted for 97% of total despatches, while exports fell by 16% to account for 3% of sales.

Al Yamama Cement led the market with 1.93Mt of local sales, followed by Saudi Cement with 1.36Mt, Qassim Cement with 1.14Mt and Yanbu Cement with 1.00Mt. Saudi Cement topped exports with 376,000t sold, ahead of Najran Cement with 50,000t and Eastern Province Cement at 5000t. Cement expert and CEO at consultancy firm A³&Co Amr Nader said “East Africa and Yemen have seen rising local production, such as capacity expansions in Kenya and the reactivation of plants in Ethiopia, alongside aggressive pricing from Turkiye and Iran.”

Clinker production grew by 13% year-on-year to 14.8Mt, with Saudi Cement producing 2.15Mt. Clinker inventories rose by 3% from 2024 to 134Mt by the end of June 2025, led by Southern Province Cement with 20.2Mt. Clinker exports increased by 39% year-on-year to 1.63Mt. Key markets included Bangladesh, Kenya, Benin, Ghana and Yemen.

Indonesia: The government has called on cement producers to expand exports and develop sustainable products to counter oversupply, according to Antara news. This comes after a visit by the Director General at the Ministry of Industry, Taufiek Bawazier, to the Solusi Bangun Indonesia cement plant in Bogo, West Java. Bawazier said that national cement production capacity currently stands at 122Mt/yr, while demand is only around 70Mt/yr, resulting in low utilisation and inefficiency.

Bawazier said “This is a serious challenge for the industry. If left unresolved, it could lead to unhealthy business competition. Strengthening the domestic component level policy is also a priority. Currently, local cement products have achieved a 60–70% domestic content level.”

He added that production capacity could be controlled by imposing a moratorium on new cement industry permits in regions where the market is already saturated. Several cement producers, such as Semen Indonesia, already export to Australia and even the US.

Russia: Cemros has suspended cement production at its Belgorod cement plant due to market deterioration, reduced profitability and a rising share of imports on the domestic market. The company said that the forced downtime will be used for equipment repairs, with operations expected to resume within a few months.

Cement consumption in Russia fell by 9% in the first half of 2025, and by 10.5% in the second quarter. Consumption in the Central Federal District, including the Belgorod region, dropped by 12% in June 2025, and by 8% in the Belgorod region itself. Cemros expects the decline to reach 13-15% by the end of 2025. The producer attributed the decline to high interest rates, the end of preferential mortgage programmes and a slowdown in construction projects. Cemros said that imports in 2025 have increased year-on-year, with the majority coming from Belarus. Imports from Iran have also increased by 25% since 2024. The producer said that the total volume of imported cement will be around 4Mt by the end of 2025.

Cemros said that all employees will remain on staff with pay and benefits, and some will be relocated to other plants.

Egypt: The Egyptian government has frozen the implementation of an earlier decision to reduce cement production capacities following a two-month suspension that took place during May and June 2025. The move aims to increase local supply and curb prices, which have reportedly been rising since the start of 2025 due to a decline in demand.

Shaimaa Aboulmagd, commercial director at Misr Beni Suef Cement, said the decision is expected to bring prices down further and that many cement companies have already started to reduce prices.

Ahmed El-Zeiny, head of the building materials division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce, said the market is now anticipating price stabilisation due to increased supply, noting that the sector had recently faced reduced availability from higher exports and the closure of nine cement production lines.

Sri Lanka: Domestic cement demand rose to 4.71Mt since July 2024, up from 3.96Mt, according to Tokyo Cement. The company attributed the increase to the ‘latent demand and low base effect of the previous year.’ It said that local production has expanded, despite intensified competition from a new grinding operator and multiple cement importers, capitalising on the relaxed cement import restrictions. The company expects demand to improve further, supported by private sector-led construction and government infrastructure projects.

However, Tokyo Cement warned “The heightened volatility in the global trade policies and ongoing regional conflicts pose downside risks that add to the uncertainty and may jeopardise some of the hard-fought economic gains the country is working towards.”

It added “These factors may constrain capital inflows, dampen export prospects and impede economic recovery.”

US: The American Cement Association expects that data centres will need 1Mt of cement by 2028 as investment in artifical intelligence technology rises. 

Data centres are projected to consume 247,000t of cement in 2025 and 860,000t by 2027. There were 5426 operational AI data centres in the US at the end of March 2025, with the number reportedly expected to exceed 6000 by 2027. However, the association warned that there could be challenges in meeting this demand, such as regulatory hurdles and labour shortages.

Indonesia: Cement consumption fell by 5% year-on-year to 5.18Mt in May 2025, despite rising 32% month-on-month following Eid al-Fitr, according to Kontan.co.id news. The annual drop reflects ongoing purchasing power challenges, longer holidays and routine demand from the construction of the country’s new capital city at Nusantara.

Java remained the top sales region at 2.73Mt, down by 6% year-on-year. Sales outside Java also declined by 3% to 2.45Mt. Bagged cement consumption fell by 4% to 3.69Mt, while bulk cement demand dropped by 6% to 1.49Mt. Cumulative sales from January to May 2025 stood at 22.27Mt, down 2% year-on-year, compared to a 1% decline in the January–April period.

Equity research analyst Andreas Saragih at Mirae Aset Sekuritas said “Although there was a deeper contraction, we are of the view that the achievement is relatively in line with expectations, because it is equivalent to 35% of our 2025 cement sales estimate.”