Displaying items by tag: demand

Vietnam: Amid weak domestic demand and rising costs of electricity and coal, the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) is focusing on boosting domestic consumption. The current domestic supply of cement is estimated at 60 – 62Mt, far exceeding demand. The excess 30Mt is planned to be exported, with cement and clinker exports already rising in April 2024 by 12% year-on-year to 2.85Mt. In the first quarter of 2024, exports grew by 4.6% to 10.9Mt compared to the same period in 2023.

The VNCA notes ‘challenging’ conditions in major markets, including China's oversupply and protectionist measures in the Philippines, Central America and South Africa. To counter these hurdles, the VNCA proposes several government-led initiatives to increase domestic consumption and help manufacturers, including tax relief on clinker exports and financial incentives such as reduced interest rates for local producers.

Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.

Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.

Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.

Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.

Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.

On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.

Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.

US: Portland Cement Association (PCA) chief economist and senior vice president of market intelligence Ed Sullivan forecast a recovery of the US economy in the second half of 2024 at the World of Concrete conference in Las Vegas, Nevada. However, Sullivan told attendees that the economy will ‘gradually weaken’ in the first half of the year. The anticipated weakening is compounded by the end of Covid-19 relief programmes, delayed monetary policy effects and credit tightening. Supporting growth throughout the year are some of the US$550bn infrastructure investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The US government says that 40,000 new projects under the act are either in progress or completed.

Ed Sullivan said "In terms of the construction outlook, there will be a battle between interest sensitive construction sectors and less interest sensitive construction activity such as infrastructure spending and the construction of large manufacturing plants associated with the CHIPS and Science Act."

India: Dalmia Bharat's consolidated sales were US$433m in the third quarter of the 2024 financial year (1 October – 31 December 2023), up by 7.3% year-on-year. This was in part due to an 8.1% rise in the company’s cement sales volumes, amid a nationwide infrastructure spending drive. Its net profit rose by 22% year-on-year to US$32m. The producer partly attributed this to a market correction in the price of raw materials. Premium products accounted for 21% of Dalmia Bharat’s cement sales during the quarter.

Managing director and CEO Puneet Dalmia said “While we believe that margins may improve further from here on, our focus for the next 12 – 15 months will remain on improving our capacity utilisation and delivering industry-leading volume growth.”

Philippines: The Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) has warned that cement sector workers could be laid off due to competition from imports from Vietnam. It stated that local demand for cement has fallen and that the production capacity of the cement industry far exceeds expected demand in 2024, according to the Business World newspaper. The association noted that the cement industry employs 130,000 personnel both directly and indirectly.

CEMAP said in a statement, "As it stands, the Philippine cement industry has been forced to downscale operations as imports continue to cannibalize the market and, in certain cases, lay off workers due to the worsening market situation. With the projected increase of cement imports, manufacturers will be forced to further downscale operations until demand recovers or importers cease dumping and exploiting the local market."

National cement production capacity is reported to be 53Mt/yr in 2024 compared to anticipated demand of 34.5Mt. CEMAP says that 7Mt of cement was imported in 2023 despite selected anti-dumping tariffs. It expects this to rise in 2024 due to a contraction in the Vietnamese market.

Switzerland: Swiss cement shipments dropped by 10% year-on-year to 3.7Mt in 2023, from 4.1Mt in 2022. Shipments declined across all quarters, including by 10% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. Cement with a reduced clinker factor grew to account for 96% of shipments from 95%, and rail shipments rose to 38%. Ready-mixed concrete plants received 73% of shipments, and building sites 21%.

The Swiss cement association, Cemsuisse, said that it anticipates continued uncertainties and high import pressures in 2024.

Argentina: Cement shipments across Argentina totalled 12.6Mt nationally in 2023, down by 3.2% year-on-year from 13Mt in 2022. Central de Noticias News has reported that the Portland Cement Manufacturers Association (AFCP) attributed this to the continuing ‘paralysis’ of private and public construction projects. The Construction Index dropped by 7.9% year-on-year in 2023.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement reported US$82.5m in sales in 2023, down by 7.2% year-on-year from US$89m in 2022. The company attributed this to a decline in sales, to 1.6Mt in 2023. It said that it commanded a 14% local market share for the year.

Kazakhstan: National cement consumption volumes totalled 11.5Mt in 2023. The figure represents a year-on-year decline of 0.9% from 11.6Mt in 2022.

Brazil: Brazil consumed 62Mt in 2023, down by 1.7% year-on-year, according to data from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC). This marks the second successive year of decline, after demand dropped by 2.8% to 63.1Mt in 2022. As a result, cement’s value on the National Construction Cost Index dropped by 6%, after having risen by 13% in 2022. The domestic cement industry recorded a capacity utilisation rate of 66% in 2023.

SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna noted high household debt, high interest rates and poor income growth as impacting the industry’s sales. He said “The My House, My Life housing programme was not fully operational until the middle of the year. Up to September 2023, the construction industry experienced a 16% decline in the number of real-estate launches.” He continued “By 2026, we will experience a period of turnaround for the cement industry.”