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Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.

Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.

Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.

Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.

Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.

On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.

Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.

Russia: Soyuzcement has warned the government that the cost of cement could rise by up to 30% year-on-year in 2024 due to mounting energy, logistics and staffing costs. The national cement manufacturing union has informed various departments and agencies - including the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Construction and the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) - that this price rise will follow a 23 - 30% production cost inflation reported in 2023, according to the Kommersant newspaper. Other contributing factors have included negative currency exchange effects leading to a 20% rise in the cost of certain imported equipment items as well as logistic issues stemming from a shortage of drivers and declining fleet levels. Separate analysis by Kommersant estimates that the rising cost of cement in 2023 led to a 10 - 15% increase in the overall cost of construction in 2023.

Pakistan: Fauji Cement sold 4.9Mt of cement during Pakistan’s 2023 financial year (FY2023), which ended on 30 June 2023. This generated revenues of US$244m, up by 25% year-on-year from US$194m in FY2022. The producer’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also rose, by 29% to US$72.3m from US$56.2m.

Managing director and CEO Qamar Haris Manzoor said “The transformation journey which started in 2020 on capacity enhancement, cost reduction initiatives and increasing captive green energy has now started to pay dividends, despite unpreceded economic challenges.” He continued “FY2023 has been challenging for businesses due to all-time high inflation and interest rates, which saw a drop in consumer demand, negatively affecting the industry. The cement industry saw a demand decline of 16% as construction activities decreased in both the northern and southern regions of the country. Despite the tough environment, Fauji Cement remained committed to its growth strategy, and successfully commissioned its 6500t/day expansion project at its Nizampur site.”

Malaysia: Malayan Cement recorded consolidated sales of US$808m during the 2023 financial year, up by 39% year-on-year from US$583m in the previous financial year. Its net profit was US$34.2m, up by 90% from US$18m. The company partly attributed its sales growth to its incorporation of YTL Cement, which took place in the 2022 financial year on 21 September 2021. It also increased its cement sales volumes and prices.

Looking to the current, 2024 financial year, Malayan Cement said “Non-residential construction activities are expected to benefit from higher investments in manufacturing facilities, given the shift in global supply chains. Nonetheless, the group's optimism is tempered with caution, as inflation and higher interest rates may have a knock-on effect on cement demand.” It added “Our ability to deliver seamless solutions to customers will be optimised, boding well for the positive growth and outlook of the group and the industry going forward.”

The Hungarian government recently enacted Emergency Decree 320/2023, taxing all CO₂ emissions from the country’s 40 or so largest industrial enterprises. The government used emergency powers to set up a new taxation scheme, which undercuts existing free allowances under the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS). The scheme additionally penalises the trade in ETS credits. Cement producers announced that the new regulations will make it impossible for them to keep operating.¹

With regard to Hungary’s six active cement plants, the scheme comprises:

1 – A Euro20/t tax on CO₂ emissions, effective retroactively from 1 January 2023, payable by any large enterprise that uses EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) free allowances to cover the majority of its CO₂ emissions. Plants that decrease their production, or that carry on non-CO₂-emitting activities at over 10% of their operations, will pay a higher rate of Euro40/t of CO₂.

2 – A 10% transaction fee for the sale of free allocations under the EU ETS, payable to the Hungarian Climate Protection Authority.

Less than three years ahead of full implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the Hungarian government has seemingly moved unilaterally against cement production – this in a country surrounded by seven other cement-producing countries. Multiple foreign cement producers connected to the major market of Budapest by rail, river and road will be watching developments with interest. These include CRH, which, besides two smaller plants inside Hungary, operates the 800,000t/yr Cementáreň Turňa nad Bodvou plant, immediately over the border in Slovakia.

This comes at a time when the domestic cement industry is facing historically high costs and low demand, with a 30% year-on-year decline in construction activity in July 2023, following double-digit inflation throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.

Catastrophising may be a common symptom of environmental regulation in industry associations, but one can understand on this occasion. The Hungarian cement and lime industry association, CeMBeton, backed its members’ gloomy announcement about their future with an estimate for extra annual taxes of ‘several billion forints’ (1bn forint = US$2.84m), in a statement following the decree. Assuming annual CO₂ emissions of 565kg/t across its 5.4Mt/yr cement capacity, the sector might expect to pay US$61m/yr in CO₂ rates alone.^{2, 3} According to analyst ClearBlue, the government will raise additional tax revenues worth US$278m/yr across all of the 40 aforementioned heavy emitters in Hungary.⁴

It may seem surprising that CeMBeton did not even draw up a projected tax bill during consultations over the new tax scheme – but, in fact, no such consultations took place. In its most recent statement, the association said “We do not know the government’s intentions.” Outside of official releases, Hungary’s cement producers have not always been so reserved about the government’s perceived aim.

Global Cement reported in April 2023 that the Hungarian government was allegedly interfering in the cement sector to make producers sell up – as per accusations by an anonymous industry executive.⁵ There is arguably a course of action on the government’s part which, more or less, appears consistent with this aim:

October 2020 – The Hungarian Competition Authority (GVH) starts competition supervision proceedings against CRH, Duna-Dráva Cement and Lafarge Cement Magyarország.

July 2021 – Emergency Decree 2021/404 imposes a 90% tax on producers’ ‘excess’ profits, based on threshold cement sales revenues of Euro56/t. Additionally, producers must report their exports.

September 2021 – GVH finds insufficient evidence to support the initiation of competition supervisory proceedings in the cement industry.

January 2023 – (Retroactive) entry into force of CO₂ emissions tax.

May 2023 – The government of Hungary reportedly initiates negotiations to acquire Duna Dráva Cement and Holcim Magyarország, according to the Hungarian builders’ association, National Professional Association of Construction Contractors (ÉVOSZ). Duna Dráva Cement owners Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement state that they have entered into no such negotiations, while Holcim declines to comment.

July 2023 – The Act on Hungarian Architecture lets the government dictate producers' volumes and prices and require them to supply cement to National Building Materials Stores (a proposed state-owned construction materials retail monopoly).⁶ Additionally, the government gains a right of first refusal over the divestment of any asset by the cement industry’s foreign owners.

20 July 2023 – The government enacts Emergency Decree 320/2023. ETS transaction fees enter into force.

The government can now expect a legal challenge to its latest move. CeMBeton’s first ally may be the font of all emissions legislation – the EU itself. Within the EU ETS framework, tax rates are down to member states to determine. However, the introduction of a transaction fee may constitute an illegal restriction to free allowances, OPIS News has reported. The association has also indicated its readiness to mount a constitutional challenge, specifically with regard to the legislative retrofit involved in the CO₂ emissions tax. The Fundamental Law of Hungary does not generally permit legislation to apply retroactively, though how courts will balance this consideration against the rights of the government is untested.

The government amended the constitution to provide for new emergency powers, and subsequently adopted them in May 2022, in response to the ‘state of danger’ created by Russia’s war in Ukraine – though its actions on the international stage suggest careful neutrality, if not ambivalence. At home, the war has brought a consolidation of the government’s control over various areas of life, including the economy, according to Human Rights Watch.⁷

Climate protestors around the world might be glad to see governments wield emergency powers against their own heavy industries. In Hungary, however, the wider sustainability goals are not yet clear with regard to a policy that seems, at least partly, politically motivated.

References

1. CeMBeton, Sajtónyilatkozat, 21 August 2023, https://www.cembeton.hu/hirlevel/2023-08-21/202308-mozgalmas-osz-ele-nezunk/116/sajtonyilatkozat/668

2. Heidelberg Materials, ‘Energy and climate protection,’ 2022, https://www.heidelbergmaterials.com/en/energy-and-climate-protection

3. Global Cement, Global Cement Directory 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/directory

4. OPIS News, ‘Hungary's New Carbon Tax Unlikely to Set EU Precedent, Say Analysts,’ 16 August 2023

5. Global Cement, 'Update on Hungary,' April 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15572-update-on-hungary-april-2023#:~:text=Heidelberg%20Materials'%20subsidiary%20Duna%2DDr%C3%A1va,the%20country's%20active%20national%20capacity.

6. Daily News Hungary, ‘Hungarian government’s new nationalising plan could violate EU law,’ 27 February 2023, https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-govts-new-nationalizing-plan-could-violate-eu-law/

7. Human Rights Watch, ‘Hungary’s New 'State of Danger',’ 8 June 2022, https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/08/hungarys-new-state-danger

Italy: Buzzi's revenues rose by 14% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, to Euro2.15bn from Euro1.88bn in the first half of 2022. This was despite an 8.3% decline in its sales and volumes of cement and clinker, to 5.12Mt from 5.83Mt. The group recorded a rise in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 58% to Euro575m from Euro365m. It noted an 'unfavourable economic situation,' with a slowdown in many of its markets.

Buzzi said "In the second quarter of 2023, the performance of the manufacturing segment was still weak, and contributed to limiting the growth prospects of international trade. In early 2023, consumer price inflation slowed down, thanks to the decrease in the energy component, although it remained at historically high levels. The decline in inflation was more evident in industrial goods, which incorporated the trend of energy prices." It added "Prospects continue to be negatively affected by persistent inflation and the consequent restrictive orientation of monetary policies in the major advanced economies, as well as by the uncertainty associated with the continuation of geopolitical tensions on a global scale, first of all the ongoing conlict in Ukraine."

Nigeria: Raw material costs for a group of major local manufacturers – including BUA Cement, Dangote Cement and Lafarge Africa – accounted for 24% of revenue in 2022. The increase in the cost of raw materials was driven by a shortage of foreign currency, raw material availability, logistics issues at ports and rising energy costs, according to the This Day newspaper. BUA Cement’s spending on raw materials rose by 9% year-on-year to US$54.3m in 2022, Dangote Cement’s spend grew by 12% to US$427m and Lafarge Africa’s expenditure increased by 32% to US$106m. The other companies included as part of the grouping included BUA Foods, Nestlé Nigeria, Cadbury Nigeria, Nigerian Breweries and Dangote Sugar Refinery.

Pakistan: Thatta Cement produced 211,000t of cement during the first half of 2023 financial year, up by 3.7% year-on-year from 204,000t during the first half of 2022 financial year. Its clinker production rose by 55% to 190,000t from 122,000t. The producer despatched 215,000t of cement, up by 4.7% year-on-year from 205,000t. Its despatches of clinker fell to 0t from 4990t.

Thatta Cement said "During the period under review, persistent political instability and indecisive monetary measures have left the business to face gross challenges. Recent floods brought on by extremely strong monsoon rains have damaged the national infrastructure and created a food crisis. The catastrophic flood has killed thousands of people, besides flooding one-third of the country. This has further compounded the agony of an economy which has already been struggling for its survival due to ever increasing current account deficit, sharply rising inflation rate and massive rupee devaluation."

The key trends to note from the financial results of cement producers in 2022 released so far are that sales revenues are up, sales volumes of cement are mostly down and earnings have mostly dropped too. Readers are not going to be surprised that 2022 was a tough year for business as the raw materials and services inflation coming out of the coronavirus period was heightened by energy cost spikes caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Producers put their prices up in response to deliver often record high annual revenues.

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected cement producers in 2021 and 2022. Source: Company reports. Note: Figures calculated for UltraTech Cement.

What sticks out by looking at the sales volumes of cement figures in Graph 2 (below) is that Holcim’s cement sales volumes were about the same as Heidelberg Materials’ were in 2022, at around 120Mt. Remember, Holcim’s cement sales volumes were 200Mt in 2021 and 256Mt in 2015 at the time of the merger with Lafarge. Large divestments have followed with the sale to Adani Group of Holcim’s India-based companies in 2022 being one of the biggest. UltraTech Cement, meanwhile, has been steadily increasing its India-based cement production capacity.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected cement producers in 2021 and 2022. Source: Company reports. Note: Figures calculated for UltraTech Cement.

By company, Holcim’s diversification and regionalisation strategy appears to be paying off well. Reducing its exposure to the cement market is giving it a strong story to tell as it grows its light building materials division, frames this as a success in sustainability and moves out of developing markets. How well this will work if and when it ends the divestment and investment stage remains to be seen. One point to highlight is that its operating profit fell by 18% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis to US$3.43bn in 2022. As well as contending with high costs in 2022, a subsidiary connected to the group was fined US$778m by the US Department of Justice in late 2022.

Heidelberg Materials’ approach to the current economic conditions in 2022 seems to have been to keep its head down and push on for decarbonisation rather than diversifying its business. So it followed the ‘sales up, costs up but earnings down’ pattern of a few of the other cement companies covered here. Although, that said, it did diversify its name to ‘Materials’ from ‘Cement’ in September 2022.

Cemex experienced the same problems as the other companies for most of 2022 but conditions started to improve in the fourth quarter in most of its territories. In particular, it reported that earnings started to grow in Mexico towards the end of 2022 despite falling sales volumes of cement. It attributed this to its pricing strategy. Of note this week, the Mexican government is preparing to support higher levels of imports of cement into the country due to a shortage in the southeast of the country.

Buzzi Unicem, meanwhile, noticed a faster slowdown in cement deliveries in its key markets in Italy, the US and Eastern Europe in the last quarter of 2022 from a general trend that could also be seen earlier in the year. In its largest market, the US, it reported that investment in residential construction slowed. This was further affected by the growing cost of building materials and the rate of inflation, although increasing spending on infrastructure helped to keep domestic consumption stable. A favourable currency exchange rate between the US and the Euro also helped the company to report provisional earnings growth. Vicat’s US businesses in the US and Brazil helped cushion the group somewhat with a large rise in sales revenue. However, earnings in the US were hit by the costs related to the start up of the new kiln at the Ragland plant in Alabama, as well as general energy cost inflation. Its business in France fought against inflation with ‘significant’ price rises delivering a high increase in sales revenue but this was insufficient to prevent earnings from dropping.

The non-European based cement producers present a different picture. Despite the high energy costs, UltraTech Cement managed to increase its revenue and sales volumes of cement in 2022. Its net profit fell though year-on-year in the nine months to 31 December 2022. The company is targeting a cement production capacity of 159Mt/yr by around the 2025 financial year with the aim of becoming the largest cement producing company in the world outside of China. Dangote Cement managed to raise its prices at home in Nigeria to fight off inflation and hold revenue and earnings up. This was harder internationally though with supply chain disruption, high commodity prices, high freight rates and a plant shutdown in Congo blamed for holding earnings back.

Inflation and the energy markets will be clear concerns in 2023. If energy prices for industry stabilise globally then there is more of a chance for business as usual as markets cope better with higher costs. The continued dilemma for multinational cement companies remains whether to decarbonise through diversification or investment in new processes, and how far to go along either path. Meanwhile, the large regional producers are starting to show themselves outside of China, as UltraTech Cement’s growth trajectory testifies. One test for these companies is balancing the risk of expansion versus potential tighter local environmental regulations. The environmental rules of export markets are also a factor to consider here with the head of AdBri calling this week for an Australian equivalent to the European Union’s border adjustment mechanism to block so-called ‘dirty’ imports.

The next set of financial results from the cement sector in 2022 to look out for will be those from the large China-based cement producers. Once these are released we will examine them in more detail.

Nigeria: BUA Cement's gross earnings rose by 31% year-on-year to US$1.29bn in 2022 from US$981m in 2021. Meanwhile, the producer's net profit rose by 2.2% year-on-year to US$193m. The group said that increased bagged cement sales volumes offset the impacts of inflation and currency effects. BUA Cement's full-year finance costs were US$23m, up by a factor of six year-on-year.