Displaying items by tag: quota

The Deputy Prime Minister of Egypt met with representatives of the cement sector last week to discuss the local market. The key topics were prices, increased production capacity and restarting suspended production lines. Then this week it was revealed that the government was preparing to issue two new cement plant licences by the end of 2025. So, what’s been happening in the local sector?

Readers may recall that the Egyptian government tackled overcapacity issues by way of cement production quotas back in 2021. This solved the immediate problems at the time but, since then, there has been a growing problem with local producers focusing on export markets to the detriment of the domestic market. For example, there was a shortage of cement reported in mid-2024 due to a shortage of trucks. Large quantities of these were being used, it transpired, to transport cement to neighbouring Libya. For more on this read Global Cement Weekly #760.

The price of cement peaked earlier in 2025. At this point the government took action by limiting cement exports to no more than 30% of a company’s production volume and by abolishing the quota system. It later reviewed the status of eight idle production lines in an effort to get them running again. Prices subsequently eased according to local media reports. Before the changes, the Cement Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries said that the country had a production capacity of 76Mt/yr from 46 lines. Domestic consumption was estimated at 46Mt/yr and exports at 20Mt/yr giving a utilisation rate 87%. Note that this export figure is 30% of the total production of the country as a whole. For the first half of 2025, production increased by 24% year-on-year to 30.7Mt from 24Mt in the same period in 2024. Exports rose by 11.5% to 9.7Mt from 8.7Mt. However, data from Al Arabiya Business shows that exports fell by 25% in May and June 2025 following the government action. Production grew by 16%.

Vicat’s financial report for the first half of 2025 reported that export sales volumes in Egypt represented over 50% of the local subsidiary’s total sales volumes. It also noted that the domestic price surpassed the export price during the reporting period. Titan Group said that its local business had experienced an ‘impressive turnaround’ due to a construction boom in the country. It said that its plants operated at ‘high capacity’ with an alternative fuels (AF) thermal substitution rate of around 40%. It added that it was intending to expand storage capacity to support growing export volumes. By contrast, Cementir endured a tougher trading period due, in part, to less exports following technical problems related to the restart of a local production line.

A source quoted by Al Arabiya from the Export Council for Building Materials noted that there had been a ‘significant’ decline in exports to several major markets, including Libya, Lebanon, the US, Ivory Coast and Ghana. That anonymous source also warned that, if the problem with the domestic market could not be resolved quickly, then the sector risked losing export markets where reconstruction work was taking place. These comments were mirrored by Adam Khalil, a Building Materials Sector Analyst at Al Ahly Pharos Securities, who told local media this week that the anticipated reconstruction of Gaza presented benefits for Egypt-based construction and building materials companies. In particular, he noted the proximity of Sinai Cement to the Gaza Strip. Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the latest ceasefire between Gaza and Israel appears to have been breached.

The other part of the government action has been focusing on increasing AF substitution rates. At the meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister this month the stated aim was to reduce production cuts. To this end, a report on the number of waste recycling plants was reviewed and compared to the requirements of each cement plant. The government intends to set up ‘practical implementation mechanisms’ to maximise the usage of AF. Energy sources have been a particular bugbear for the cement sector in Egypt historically as the government has encouraged producers to switch fuels from time to time.

The wider economy in Egypt continues to face headwinds. Cementir, for example, in its half year report said that the country’s economy was “...being held back by high inflation, devaluation, rising energy costs, pressure on manufacturing industries and a revision of the state budget with the suspension of infrastructure projects.” However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecast for Egypt in 2025 and 2026 in mid-October 2025. The decision by the government to cap exports of cement and cut the production quota marks a serious change since 2021. It is clearly watching the situation closely. The timing from roughly in the middle of the year should make the effects clear to see in the annual reports in early 2026. We will wait until then.

Vietnam: The government will allocate greenhouse gas emission quotas to cement and steel plants and thermal power facilities by 31 December 2025, following a new decree issued on 9 June 2025, which takes effect on 1 August 2025. These facilities will receive quotas during the 2025–2026 period. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in coordination with the ministries of industry and trade and construction, will lead the pilot proposal process and submit total allowable emissions to the prime minister for approval. Quotas for each plant must be finalised by the end of 2025. From 2027, ministries will propose lists of facilities and quotas for 2027–2028 and 2029–2030, with submissions due by 30 June of the first year of each period. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will allocate quotas by 31 October annually once approved.

Quotas will be based on emission intensity per unit of product, industry growth targets and each facility’s potential to reduce emissions. Facilities may trade quotas and carbon credits on the national market. The decree also revises rules on trading, borrowing, transferring and surrendering quotas. Facilities must surrender quotas equal to verified emissions, minus carbon credit offsets, by 31 December following each compliance period. Penalties and future deductions will apply to those who fail.

The Polish Cement Association (SPC) has taken a swing at mounting cement imports from outside of the European Union (EU) in recent weeks. Its ‘apocalyptic’ message was underlined by the name of a seminar it participated in at the European Parliament: “Is the end of cement production in the EU approaching?” The SPC’s primary target appeared to be imports from Ukraine. It said that, “...cement imports from Ukraine - only to Poland - have increased by almost 3000% over five years (2019 - 2024). (In 2024) it amounted to more than 650,000t, and forecasts for 2025 already indicate more than 1Mt.” However, it detailed other issues affecting the sector including high energy prices, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and decarbonisation costs such as carbon capture.

The SPC is clearly keen to find cross-country support in the EU. In its accompanying statement it said "The uncontrolled increase in imports - from Ukraine to Poland or Romania, and from Türkiye and Africa to Italy or Spain - is already directly threatening cement producers, and will only continue to rise until the full implementation of the CBAM. It shows that imports from outside the EU are not just a problem for Poland.” Representatives from the cement associations in the later countries - CIROM, AITEC and Oficemen - all added comments to the SPC statement.

The SPC has called for a customs quota on cement imports from Ukraine to Poland to be introduced. It also asked for the European Commission to extend the EU ETS indirect cost compensation scheme to include the cement sector in order to further hedge against rising energy bills. It argues that this measure is essential to keep the cement industry competitive both now and in the future. Future electricity consumption is expected to double as cement plants start to install carbon capture technology.

Graph 1: Domestic cement sales and imports in Poland, 2019 - 2024. Source: SPC, Eurostat. Note: 2024 sales estimated.

Data from the SPC suggests that domestic cement sales in Poland peaked at 19.4Mt in 2022. They fell by 12% year-on-year to 16.6Mt in 2023 and then appear to have grown to 17.1Mt in 2024 based on estimated data. It is hard to replicate the SPC’s methodology for determining cement imports into Poland based on Eurostat data. However, data in its Economic Impact Report published at the end of 2024 suggests that imports from Ukraine grew from 79,000t in 2019 to 332,000t in 2023. Any significant rise in imports of cement in 2024, as the local industry recovered from the decline in 2023, seems likely to have caused concern.

Polish concern at growing imports from Ukraine started to be expressed in the press from early 2024 onwards when the 2023 data became apparent. Germany had been the biggest source of imports from the mid-2010s. Yet Germany and Ukraine both supplied about 30% of total imports each in 2023. For example, SPC head Zbigniew Pilch noted in April 2024 that imports from Ukraine were growing steadily each month and represented nearly half of total imports in January 2024. He described these volumes as “deeply concerning.” The Association of Cement Producers in Ukraine (Ukrcement) later attempted to soothe Polish concerns in late 2024 looking at longer import trends and bringing up the challenges facing Ukraine-based producers operating in a warzone.

Concerns about imports from Ukraine in eastern countries in the EU go back decades but have been clouded by the war with Russia. This is now reasserting itself as import levels grow, the cost of decarbonising heavy industry becomes more urgent and the CBAM comes into force. That said , cement plants in Ukraine look unlikely to cope with the CBAM that well due to their relatively high emissions intensity. Yet, other exporting countries outside the EU with lower cement sector emissions intensities may simply displace their competitors. Hence, the SPC’s call for a quota. The kinds of arguments that the SPC is making about carbon leakage are likely to grow fiercer across the EU as the definitive stage of the CBAM, due to start in 2026, draws nearer. Will the current situation lead to ‘the end of cement production in the EU?’ Time will tell…

Vietnam: The government will allocate greenhouse gas emissions quotas to 150 facilities across the cement, thermal power and steel sectors, according to a draft decree discussed by the government. Under the proposed roadmap, quota allocation will be implemented in phases over the next five years.

These sectors account for 40% of national emissions, according to the Vietnam Investment Review, and are also subject to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism. The draft decree proposes decentralised development of technical regulations and mutual recognition of carbon credit data with international partners. Quotas will be proposed annually by ministries and submitted to the prime minister for approval.

 Deputy prime minister Tran Hong Ha said “This is a technical decree with many variables. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment will provide a controlled framework and guiding principles using a ‘sandbox’ approach, allowing businesses to experiment while regulators monitor, evaluate and make adjustments.”

Egypt: Tamer Magdy, the country manager for Sinai Cement, says that parent company Vicat is keen to continuing to invest in the local market. He noted that noted that the France-based building materials producer is a long-term investor with confidence in the Egyptian economy and that it has no plans to leave, according to the Daily News Egypt newspaper.

He praised the government’s decision in early July 2021 to introduce reduced cement production quotas. The group is also keen for the authorities to develop the Sinai region more, where its main market is based. Vicat has operated in Egypt since 2003 when it acquired Sinai Cement. However, Magdy also called on the government to provide subsidies for exports.

Egypt: The Egyptian Competition Authority has approved a request by 23 cement producers for permission for a temporary reduction in their cement output by 11%, with additional cuts of 3% per kiln line. Reuters has reported that the reduced quotas will be in force between 15 July 2021 and 15 July 2022. Previously, two cement executives quoted by the source said that the proposed cuts seemed unfair on multinational companies, like them, that operate older plants.