Displaying items by tag: Mexico

Mexico: Mauricio Doehmer has been appointed as the president of the National Chamber of Cement. He is Cemex’s corporate affairs and business risk management executive vice-president, according to the El Financiero newspaper. He succeeds Billy Alvarez, an executive with Cementos Cruz Azul.

With president-elect Trump due to take office this week we wonder what this means for the cement industry in Mexico. In 2016 this column looked a couple of times at the implications of Trump upon the US cement industry. First, we looked at who might benefit if he builds his wall along the Mexican border and then we wondered what his policies might mean for the US industry. To answer the latter first, the main issues for the US industry are infrastructure, changes to the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) and the repercussions if Trumps serious about a trade war with China. So long as a trade war doesn’t happen then Trump is probably good news for the US cement industry. As for Mexico, the joke has been that Trump will be good for the construction business ever since market analysts Bernstein’s passed a note around in the summer of 2016 about that wall.

Graph 1: Breakdown of Mexican cement industry by production capacity. Source: Global Cement Directory 2017.

The makeup of the domestic Mexican cement industry hasn’t changed too much in the last decade, even with the merger between Lafarge and Holcim, preserving the same market share in production capacity between the companies. Most of the producers have reported growth in 2016. Cemex reported that its cement sales volumes rose by 3% for the first nine months of 2016 and by 10% in the third quarter of that year. Overall though, its net sales fell slightly to US$2.16bn in the first nine months, alongside a fall in ready-mix concrete sales volumes. Cemex, crucially, also seems to have taken charge of its debts in 2016, saying that it was on track to meet its targets and that it had announced nearly US$2bn worth of divestments in that year. Currently the company is trying to buy out Trinidad Cement in the Caribbean, which may be a sign that it has turned a corner.

Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua’s (GCC) cement sales volumes rose in the first three quarters of 2016, in its case by 4%. Its overall net sales in Mexico rose by 4.2% in Mexican Pesos for the same period but fell when calculated in US Dollars due to currency variations. GCC attributed its sales growth to better pricing environment and increased cement volumes, mainly for projects in the commercial and industrial sectors that compensated for a decline in the public sector, following the culmination of two major urban paving and highway construction projects in 2015. At the smaller end of the market, Elementia reported that its cement sales skyrocketed by 30% to US$104m in the first nine months of the year aided by higher prices and volumes.

The major Mexican cement producers all have a presence in the US with the exception of Cruz Azul. Cemex has held assets north of the border for years, Cemento Portland Moctezuma has links to Buzzi Unicem, GCC bought US assets from Cemex in 2016 and Elementia completed its purchase of Giant Cement also in 2016. These companies have clinker in their kilns in plants on US soil manned by US citizens. This represents investment in local industry and it is exactly the kind of thing that appeals to the rhetoric of Trump’s approach so far. If the new president builds his wall then Mexican producers will probably be producing much of the cement that builds it. Even the Mexican Peso’s slow decline since 2014 could help the local cement industry, as it will cut the cost of moving exports and materials north of the border. Indeed, Enrique Escalante, the chief executive officer of GCC said in late 2016 that his company was ‘ready to build’ Trump’s wall.

However, the sheer uncertainty factor of an incoming president with as little experience of public office as Donald Trump must be giving chief executives pause for thought. After all, Trump's tweets before he has assumed office have forced car manufacturers to change policy. If he manages to disrupt the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in order to protect US jobs then the repercussions for the Mexican economy will be profound. It sends nearly three quarters of its exports to the US. Local cement producers would surely suffer in the resulting economic disruption.

So, currency devaluations aside, Mexican producers are making money from their cement operations at home and they are increasingly hedging their bets by operating or buying units in the US. Some, like GCC, are even being ebullient about the benefits that might come their way. It may be a bumpy ride but the Mexican industry is ready. However, it may wish to avoid appearing in any of Donald Trump’s tweets anytime soon.

In June 2016, the polls said that the UK would remain in the European Union (EU), but now we have the prospect of Brexit. Democrat supporters in the US now know how the UK's 'Remainers' feel. The unthinkable has happened: the so-called 'Deplorables' have taken over the asylum. Donald Trump has won the US presidential election and he will be the 45th US president, after confounding all the polls, the media, the analysts and the commentators. He'll be able to appoint a swathe of right-leaning office-holders, including a crucial replacement for the late Antonin Scalia on the US Supreme Court. This will change the direction of US law-making for years, possibly decades, towards a less-liberal and more conservative outlook.

Trump will also be aided by having Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives and will actually be able to get things done. President Obama had to fight hard for eight years to achieve anything, and finally had to fall back on enacting laws by presidential dictat or 'Executive Orders.' 'The Donald' will not have to stoop so low, and once he takes office will effectively be 'sweeping with the wind.'

Trump looks set to change US policy in a number of areas, including being less conciliatory towards America's foes ("I'm going to bomb the s••t out of ISIS"), taxing imports and tearing up trade agreements and rolling back US environmental efforts (he has promised to abolish the US Environmental Protection Agency, to cancel the Paris climate change deal, to sanction more drilling for oil and to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline the fourth phase of which was recently rejected by President Obama). Who knows what else he has planned?

Well, one thing that we do know is that Trump's election is very probably great news for the US cement industry.

Early on in his victory speech, moments after receiving a telephone call from Hillary Clinton conceding defeat, Trump laid out the first step of his plan to 'Make America Great Again:' building US infrastructure. Trump said: "We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it." He didn't actually mention cement (nor did he mention a 'big beautiful wall'), but all of these projects will require plenty of cement and concrete. Whether they voted for him or not (and Trump noted that there are those 'who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people'), workers in the cement industry will be celebrating the prospect of fuller order sheets, higher prices, better profitability and more overtime. From a current GDP growth rate of around 1%, some have suggested a surge past 3%/yr and beyond during a Trump presidency. The crucial question, often overlooked, is "How are we going to pay for all this investment?" With the US debt heading towards US$20Tn, perhaps Trump's history as a Democrat - and all the tax-raising territory that comes with that position - might come in handy after all.

Trump has indicated that he's already looking to a second term ("I look very much forward to being your president, and hopefully at the end of two years or three years or four years, or maybe even eight years...") based on what he might achieve in his first term. Well, let's see. Donald Trump's deeds now need to speak louder than Donald Trump's words.

Back in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine we asked key people at the Portland Cement Association how they thought the US presidential election might affect the local cement industry. Wisely, for an advocacy organisation with offices in Washington DC, no one would be drawn, citing a lack of information. At that point it was still unclear who was going to be on the final ticket. However, we all missed a trick because one candidate, Donald Trump, had been talking about building ‘a border fence like you have never seen before’ since at least mid-2014. And that fence could potentially require a lot of cement.

Researchers at market analysts Bernstein’s sent a note to clients last week ahead of the Republican National Convention looking at the implications of if Donald Trump became president of the US and actually set out to build his 40ft high concrete wall between the US and Mexico. The result would be a 2.4Mt boost in demand for cement from cement producers near to the border. In terms of market demand Bernstein concluded that this would add over 1% to cement demand in both 2018 and 2019, a healthy ‘shot in the arm’ to the already pepped-up US cement industry, which is currently growing at around 5%/yr.

Map 1: Map of cement and ready-mix concrete plants near to the US - Mexico border. Source: Bernstein Materials Blast. Note – Bernstein does not show the Capitol Cement plant in San Antonio.

Needless to say, Bernstein’s calculations pile-drive assumptions into assumptions, atop of Trump’s political rhetoric. It bases its calculations on a border wall similar to the Israeli West Bank barrier built out of precast concrete panels. It also tries to model how much concrete and cement would be required depending on the differing height’s Trump has trumpeted at his rallies.

The kicker to this tongue-in-cheek analysis is that the construction company that stands to benefit the most from this infrastructure project is Mexican!

Cemex has significantly more cement plants and ready-mix concrete plants than any other company within a 200-mile zone either side of the border. Looking at integrated cement plants alone, it has six plants in the regions near to the proposed wall from the east and west coasts. Its nearest competitors, CalPortland with four plants and Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua with three plants, are more regionally based in the western US and Chihuahua state in Mexico. Clearly Cemex didn’t rate the chances of Donald Trump’s wall actually happening when it agreed to sell its Odessa cement plant to Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua in May 2016.

All of this goes to show that, wherever you stand on the Donald Trump presidency bid, if you manufacture cement near the US-Mexican border you might be working overtime if he (a) actually becomes president, (b) actually manages to start building his wall and (c) actually decides to make it using cement. Yet before anybody starts popping champagne corks consider this: there might also be unintended consequences for the cement sector. Restricting current legal and illegal migration trends from Mexico to the US might have a greater negative effect on the US cement industry, and the overall economy, than ordering one large infrastructure project. Working that one out is harder than a guesstimate of how much cement a border wall might consume. Probably best not to ask at this stage who might actually pay for the Great Wall of Donald Trump.

Mexico: Corporacion Moctezuma has announced that Fabrizio Donega will become its new general director from 3 October 2016. Donega will replace Pedro Carranza Andresen, who is due to retire after 10 years working for the corporation. Corporacion Moctezuma was formed in 1982 from the merger of Cementos Moctezuma and Concretos Moctezuma.

Cemex has taken action towards its debts over the course of the last week. First, it announced that it had amended its credit agreements in order to delay the looming effects of consolidated financial leverage and coverage ratio limits by one year to March 2017 with other similar deadlines also delayed. Then it announced the pricing of US$1bn of Senior Secured Notes due in 2026, a form of secured borrowing. This was followed by confirmation of asset sales in Bangladesh and Thailand. Finally, it announced that it was seeking regulatory permission to sell a minority stake in its subsidiary in the Philippines.

This column has discussed the on-going financial travails at Cemex a few times, notably recently when the group released its fourth quarter results for 2015 and in the wake of HeidelbergCement’s announcement to buy Italcementi. Basically, it all comes down to debt, as the following graph shows.

Figure 1 - Cemex assets, debt and equity, 2006 - 2015

Cemex took on large amounts of debt following its acquisition of Rinker in 2007. Since then the value of its assets have been falling faster than it has been able to reduce its debts. However, its equity (assets minus debts) is looking like it might dip below its debts in 2016. Hence, action needs to be taken. Cemex appears to have attempted to do this over the last week. Will it be enough?

The credit amendment was probably the most pressing issue for the Cemex management given that the terms have been reliant on maintaining a leverage ratio (debt divided by assets) below a set limit. Cemex has extended the terms of the borrowing in its favour so it can keep the leverage ratio higher for longer without penalty from its creditors. Note that the leverage ratio here means the ratio between debt and operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDTA).

Selling assets and shares in Asia is the next step in cutting debt in the window the group has negotiated for itself. It holds minor cement production assets in Thailand and Bangladesh that it is selling to Siam City Cement for US$53m. These include a 0.8Mt/yr integrated cement plant in Saraburi, Thailand and a 0.52Mt/yr cement grinding plant in Madangonj, Bangladesh. Unfortunately for Cemex it purchased the Saraburi plant for US$77m in 2001 from Saraburi Cement making it a loss of at least US$24m.

A minority sale of shares in its Philippines assets is more promising. The group runs two integrated cement plants in the country, the Solid Cement Plant in Rizal and the APO Cement Plant in Cebu with a combined cement production capacity of 6.23Mt/yr and a new 1.5Mt/yr production line on the way at Solid Cement also. Local media estimate that the sale could earn Cemex as much as US$850m from the booming market. The Cement Manufacturer's Association of the Philippines reported that cement sales volumes grew by 14.3% to 24.4Mt in 2015 with more growth predicted for 2016.

The credit amendment and asset sales of US$0.9bn may give Cemex the breathing room it requires to keep the creditors at bay for a while longer. It originally refinanced its debts in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis to keep the business running until the markets picked up again. They haven’t. A question that might be legitimately asked at Cemex’s analyst day later this week, on 17 March 2016, is this: when is Cemex going to seriously tackle its debts? As the situation continues the group may end up devoting more time to managing its debts than it will to actually making cement and other building products.

Mexico: Further management changes have been implemented at Cemex, including the inclusion of six executive vice presidents, instead of five. The six vice presidents will report directly to the director general, Fernando Gonzalez, with the position of executive vice president of finance to be filled by Jose Antonio Gonzalez.

Juan Pablo San Agustín will continue as executive vice president of strategic planning and business development, while Maher Al-Haffar has been appointed as executive vice president of investor relations, corporate communications and public affairs. Luis Hernandez will continue as executive vice president of organisation and human resources, as well as security and administrative services, while he will also be responsible for processes, IT, innovation, global service organisation (GSO), the securities funding corporation (VMO) and the Neoris project. Ramiro Villarreal will remain head of legal affairs, taking up the position of executive vice president of legal, while he will continue as secretary of the board of directors. Mauricio Doehner has been appointed as executive vice president of corporate affairs and business risk management.

No changes have been made at the regional director level. Cemex executives have also expressed a desire to recover investment grade at the firm, lost during the crisis in 2009.

Mexico: Cemex has announced that it has promoted its chief financial officer (CFO), Fernando Gonzalez, to chief executive. Gonzalez replaces Lorenzo Zambrano, who died suddenly on Monday 12 May 2014. It also named Rogelio Zambrano, a cousin of the late executive, as its new chairman. Lorenzo Zambrano had been chief executive since 1986 and chairman since 1995.

"We will stay focused on creating value for all of our stakeholders," said Rogelio Zambrano in a statement. "I am very optimistic about Cemex's future." He has been a member of the Cemex board since 1987 and president of the company's finance committee since 2009.

Fernando Gonzalez joined the company in 1989 and held senior positions in a number of regions before being named executive vice president for finance and administration several years ago. "We are encouraged by the positive outlook and the improving business environment in the markets where we operate," he said in the release.

The board's decision to replace Lorenzo Zambrano from within the company is likely to reassure investors of continuity at Cemex, which is seeing a recovery in earnings after the recent economic crisis led the highly leveraged firm to refinance debt, sell assets and lay off around 10% of its workforce. The speed at which the board has responded is also likely to instill confidence.

After taking over the company, Zambrano embarked on a rapid and ambitious international expansion that transformed Cemex from a regional producer into a global supplier of cement and building materials, borrowing heavily to acquire companies and aggressively paying down debt.

Mexico: Lorenzo Zambrano, CEO of Cemex died on 12 May 2014 in Madrid aged 70. There were no immediate details about the cause of death in a statement released by Cemex and there had been no reports of illness. The company added that it will continue to operate normally.

Founded by Zambrano's grandfather more than a century ago, the company started producing cement in the northern city of Monterrey, which later became one of Mexico's industrial hubs. Zambrano was born on 27 March 1944. He joined the company after graduate school in 1968, when he earned his master degree in business administration at Stanford University. By 1985 the board of directors give him full power as CEO. Then, through a series of acquisitions, Zamrano extended Cemex's reach to five continents with operations in 50 countries.

However a US$16bn acquisition of Australian building materials company Rinker in 2007 subjected Cemex to the subprime housing crisis. At the time, Zambrano put a brave face on it. "We've shown that a company that is born in a developing country can compete in the whole world and we want to keep doing it," he said. Cemex spent the following years coping with large debt obligations, struggling to make deals with lenders and trimming costs by outsourcing and restructuring jobs.

Article updated: 14 May 2014

There was a great quote on BBC News from Nigerian cement mogul Aliko Dangote to start 2014 with: "Can you imagine, can you believe, that [Nigeria] has been growing at 7%/yr with no power, with zero power? It's a joke."

In the article Dangote is describing economic growth in Nigeria and the BBC points out that 170 million people in Nigeria use the same amount of power as 1.5 million people do in the UK. The author then goes on to predict that Nigeria could grow at a rate of 10 – 12%, by just solving power infrastructure in the country.

For the start of 2014 the British state broadcaster has been running a radio series on the so-called MINT economies. The term refers to the growing economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey and is being used as a new buzzword in the same fashion as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to describe broadly similar growing economies outside the traditional western bloc dominated by the G7.

Comparing the cement industries in the MINT countries raises some discrepancies between the desires of Western economists and the local cement industries. Mexico has a population of 118m, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.85tr and a cement production capacity of 50Mt/yr. Indonesia has a population of 238m, a GDP of US$1.29tr and a cement production capacity of 47Mt/yr. Nigeria has a population of 175m, a GDP of US$479bn and a cement production capacity of 28Mt/yr. Turkey has a population of 74m, a GDP of US$1.17tr and a cement production capacity of 82Mt/yr.

Mexico and Turkey have the lower populations in the MINT group, the highest (and most similar) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at US$15,000 and are the more developed cement industries in the group with the higher cement production capacities per capita. All of the MINT countries have infrastructural issues that will require large amounts of cement in the coming years.

Highlighting Dangote's concerns we cover a cement industry news story this week from Nepal, where Dangote is considering potential locations for a cement plant. Part of the publicly reported meeting between Dangote and the Nepalese government concerned power requirements for the project. Dangote intends to generate 30MW itself and has asked Nepal to provide 30MW. From the CEO downwards the cement producer clearly understands the problems of underdeveloped infrastructure. This is not surprising given his comments above!

That MINT economies are growing powers will not surprise the cement industry. In this week's Global Cement Weekly, in addition to the Dangote story, we feature two news stories focusing on direct industry capital investment in Indonesia. Looking more widely nearly half the stories are from BRIC or MINT countries.

With this in mind Global Cement has developed its own buzzword for the cement industry in 2014: the VISA group. This group includes Vietnam, Italy, Spain and Australia, countries that have all had problems with their cement industries in 2013 such as a production overcapacity or financial losses. If readers have any nicknames of their own for groups of cement producing nations let us know at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..