Energy costs for cement producers in India are set for volatility following the Supreme Court's decision this week to cancel the vast majority of allocated coal blocks. After ruling that the allocation process by the Indian government was illegal and arbitrary the court stopped 214 out of 218 coal blocks. The affected operators working on the blocks have six months until 31 March 2015 to wind down production. At this point the government intends to auction off the blocks.
The background to this decision lies in the so-called coal allocation scam or 'Coalgate.' Over 80% of coal in India is produced by the state owned company Coal India. Since 1993 though the Indian government has been allocating coal blocks or leases to mine coal for captive use by industries such as cement, steel and power generation.
However, the allocation process was accused of lacking transparency compared to an open bidding process. The Comptroller and Auditor General of India estimated the loss to the government was an incredible US$30bn. The allocation process received further scrutiny as Indian coal imports rose leading to accusations of inefficiency on the Coal India side and corruption on the coal block side. Meanwhile, major power cuts such as those in the summer of 2012 focused both domestic and industrial users' minds on the state of the country's coal industry.
Following the power cuts in 2012, an inter-ministerial panel recommended the de-allocation of two coal blocks held by five companies, including Gujarat Ambuja Cement, Grasim Industries and Lafarge India.
India's coal imports started to increase rapidly around 2009 with an annual growth rate of around 5% and a demand growth of 25% from 2009 – 2014. The majority of its imported coal comes from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa. In 2012 its coal imports were over 150Mt.
With Indian cement producers facing production overcapacity and falling profit margins in recent years, any disruption to input costs such as power is bad news. The growing import rates point to an increasing supply-demand mismatch. A more open process for the allocation of India's vast coal reserves should be good news for industrial users in the medium to long term. However, in the meantime they may face a jolt.
