This week saw the announcement that Cemex and Holcim are both upping their stakes in Nicaragua to increase production. The companies have stated that they expect cement demand to grow significantly in the near future.
Holcim has started work on a US$10m project to increase production by 30% to 400,000t/yr at its Nagarote grinding plant. A second expansion phase will see production raised another 30%. Cemex, for its part, is building a US$55m, 440,000t/yr grinding plant in Ciudad Sandino. Completion is expected by 2017.
These new developments will make significant additions to Nicaragua's cement industry. Currently, it consists of one Cemex-owned 600,000t/yr integrated plant and one Holcim-owned 300,000t/yr grinding plant.
Nicargua has the dubious honour of being Central America's least developed economy and one of the poorest among all of the Americas. In recent years, however, its economy has grown dramatically, with significant expansion in the construction and mining sectors, indicating that Holcim and Cemex are right to bet on Nicargua. Indeed, late in 2014 president of the High Council of Private Enterprise, José Adán Aguerri said that the country had a significant cement shortage and was currently importing from Mexico and Colombia to meet its needs.
Driving cement demand in Nicaragua is the residential housing sector boosted by the growing population, much-needed infrastructure projects and the country's most controversial project, the Nicaragua Grand Canal. The canal will be, according to local media, a 'commercial waterway that will reshape commercial shipping, reap a windfall for investors and haul one of the hemisphere's poorest nations out of poverty.' Heavily backed by Chinese investors, it is deeply unpopular with industry experts and locals alike. There have been lots of questions as to whether there is enough demand for the canal, while its construction will divert scant resources, particularly water, away from agriculture, the country's main industry. The project will, however, contribute significantly to cement demand until its completion, which is expected in 2019.
So is Nicaragua the place to be? Its near-future economic and construction sector outlooks certainly look strong, but the cement industry relies heavily on long-term infrastructure plans, which are sorely lacking. Additionally, none of Nicaragua's neighbouring countries have noteworthy cement deficits. This means that export market opportunities from Nicaragua are in short supply. Nicaragua's future depends overwhelmingly on its leaders' long term-planning abilities...
