Sudan made a rare mention in the cement news this week when state plans to increase production capacity were revealed. Minister of Investment Mudathir Abdul-Ghani commented on a visit to a cement plant in River Nile State that the government wants to increase production capacity from 3Mt/yr to 5Mt/yr.
It's likely that the minister meant cement production as opposed to production capacity and that something was lost in translation from the original source via the Sudan News Agency. Global Cement Directory 2016 data places the country's cement production capacity at just under 7Mt/yr from six plants. ASEC and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) have cited similar figures in recent years too. A Global Cement contact reported in June 2015 that only three of the six cement plants were generally operational. These were Atbara Cement, Alshamal Cement and Al Takamol Cement (ASEC). The last available figures from the Bank of Sudan reported cement production was 2.9Mt in 2013, excluding data from one plant.
Regardless, the focus on Sudan is worth attention. The usual African demographic factors and rebuilding potential following the secession of South Sudan in 2011 suggest that the country is ready for increases in cement consumption. In 2009 per capita cement consumption was placed at 65kg/capita, an extremely low figure. After this point cement production leapt up from 0.6Mt/yr in 2009 to 2.91Mt/yr in 2013. This was due to expansion projects and new plant builds such as the Al Takamol (ASEC) cement plant. Using the current 2015 estimate for population this would still keep the country's per capita consumption below 100kg/capita.
Back in its 2012 annual report ASEC described the Sudanese market as one 'plagued' by oversupply and fuel shortages, creating a difficult environment to operate within. Transportation challenges, political instability, economic sanctions and the separation with South Sudan were all mentioned as problems to the local cement industry, hitting utilisation rates. ASEC's stated plan at the time was to reduce costs to stay in business. This all chimes with direct reports to Global Cement placing the utilisation rate at 50%. Demand for cement reportedly fell in January 2016 due to high inflation rates, at about 35%, and a poor economy.
With these kinds of conditions it would take a brave investor to spend their money in Sudan despite the golden demographic trends. State investment or incentives could be instrumental. This makes the Minister of Investment's comments noteworthy. Despite all the problems ASEC reported a 'marked' rise in sales revenue in 2013 to US$70m for its subsidiary Al-Takamol in Sudan.
