Displaying items by tag: China

Exports are the theme this week with news that the value of Turkey’s cement exports fell by 26% year-on-year in April 2020. Reporting from the Trend News Agency showed that the export market has been stable so far for the year to date, with some countries, like Kazakhstan, increasing exports and others, like France, decreasing exports. However the change in April may mark the start of a new trend.

As Tamer Saka, the chairman of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB), said earlier in the year, his country is one of biggest cement exporters in the world and among its most important markets are the US, Israel, Ghana and Ivory Coast. To look at one of these countries, United States Geology Survey (USGS) data shows that cement and clinker imports from Turkey to the US grew by 26% year-on-year to 1Mt for the first quarter of 2020 but that exports fell by 24% year-on-year to 0.11Mt in March 2020. Each of these countries is being affected in different ways by the coronavirus pandemic and at different times. Overall though, Saka’s and the TÇMB’s forecast in February 2020 that exports would rise by 15% year-on-year in 2020 is looking decidedly shaky. Any knock to the export market in Turkey is particularly unwanted given the poor state of the Turkish economy at the moment.

What would be useful to know here is how other major cement exporters are coping with the global situation. Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that Pakistan’s cement exports dropped by 31% year-on-year to 0.36Mt in April 2020. Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) for the same month tells a similar story. Its data shows a 57% drop in exports to 0.25Mt in April 2020, with a bigger share lost by plants in the north of the country than those in the south.

The other country to note is Vietnam. Here, data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. This follows the announcement by Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) chair Nguyễn Quang Cung in May 2020 that all cement plant projects scheduled to begin in 2020 would be suspended. Luckily those currently being built avoided this fate. This has included a new line at Thanh Thang Group Cement’s integrated Bong Lang cement plant, which Germany’s Loesche has just sent a pair of clinker mills to this week.

These changes from the major cement exporters are bad for their host countries but the other side of the chain is how their destinations are affected. For example, Australia’s clinker imports nearly doubled between 2010 – 2011 and 2018 – 2019 to 4.1Mt. This compares to local clinker production of 5.6Mt in 2018 – 2019, according to the Cement Industry Federation and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. With this in mind, this week saw the resolution to a legal dispute between Wagners Holdings and Boral over a cement supply contract. Boral found a cheaper source of cement from Cement Australia in early 2019 and the two parties argued over their contract. This dispute may have nothing to do with foreign import levels but Wagners Holdings, Boral and Cement Australia all operate standalone clinker grinding plants and will all be subject to general market pricing trends. Higher international clinker levels may add pressure to pricing issues surrounding cement supply contracts in Australia and elsewhere.

Finally, cement trade flows aren’t the only commodity that has been affected by coronavirus disruption. The mass movement of workers home and then back to work is expected to complicate India’s return to business, as discussed in last week’s column. In this context it’s pleasing to come across one sign of normality. Local press in Hubei, China reported this week that workers from Huaxin Cement finally flew back to Uzbekistan. They were originally meant to commission a new plant in March 2020 but became stranded at home when they returned for the Chinese New Year. Commissioning of the plant is now planned for later in June 2020.

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Nigeria: Sinoma Construction Nigeria says it has completed the construction of a second 6000t/d line at BUA Group subsidiary Obu & Edo Cement’s Edo cement plant, bringing the plant’s total integrated capacity to 5.5Mt/yr. The subsidiary of China-based Sinoma said that it completed the work in spite of an outbreak of malaria and electricity shortages. It said, “The successful fulfilment of the project has laid a solid foundation for the company's in-depth localised operation and comprehensive cooperation with the BUA Group.”

Uzbekistan: Huaxin Cement has announced that 112 of its employees took the first charter flight from Hubei Province since the coronavirus lockdown began, arriving in Jizzakh, Jizzakh Oblast on 6 June 2020. Hubei Daily News has reported that Huaxin Cement’s upcoming 1.5Mt/yr integrated Jizzakh cement plant, previously scheduled for commissioning in March 2020, will now start operation in June 2020. Huaxin Cement thanked the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Civil Aviation authority for their support.

Huaxin Cement’s deal to buy ARM Cement’s assets in Tanzania has reportedly completed this morning. The Chinese cement producer will pour US$116m into Maweni Limestone to settle its liabilities and add another US$30m to complete plant construction and an upgrade, according to Reuters. Kenyan-based ARM Cement operates an integrated plant at Tanga and a grinding plant at Dar es Salaam.

Given the state of the world at the moment due to coronavirus the timing seems almost prophetic. There have been plenty of jingoistic warnings in Western media about renewed Chinese global dominance in the wake of the crisis. However, this agreement dates back to at least September 2019 when it was publicly announced, well before the current health scare. This is part of the Chinese expansion plan in Sub-Saharan Africa that’s been happening informally and formally since at least 2013. ARM Cement has seriously suffered since 2017 when cement demand fell in Kenya, a coal import ban in Tanzania caused production issues at its Tanga plant and increased competition hit both countries. It entered administration in the summer of 2018 and previous owner Pradeep Paunrana has been fighting PricewaterhouseCoopers’ attempts to sell the business to local rival National Cement. In some respects the timing of this deal may also be bad for Huaxin Cement given that it’s just suffered a 36% year-on-year drop in sales revenue to US$542m in the first quarter of 2020, related to the coronavirus outbreak. If the company can’t absorb this through the rest of the year then it might have a problem.

The real trend here in Chinese expansion strategy by its cement sector is a move from imports, building plants and co-financing projects to outright asset acquisition. This isn’t the first example either. West China Cement completed its purchase of a majority stake in Schwenk Namibia for US$104m in January 2020. This gave it control of Ohorongo Cement. Other recent Chinese moves in Sub-Saharan Africa include the supply of a modular grinding mill in Guinea by Sinoma and the competition of construction of a 1Mt/yr integrated plant in Lubudi Territory in Democratic Republic of Congo by another CNBM subsidiary, Tianjin Cement Industry Design and Research Institute.

An outlier from the more ‘traditional’ Chinese routes of either supplying equipment and/or co-financing cement plants in Africa has been the CNBM/Sinoma plan to build a 7Mt/yr ‘mega’ plant in Tanzania. Once completed it will nearly double local clinker production! Unsurprisingly, when it was first announced it was pitched towards the export market. Cement producers in East Africa might do well to remind themselves what has happened in Egypt since the 13Mt/yr government/army-run El-Arish Cement plant at Beni Suef opened in 2018: the over-supplied market collapsed. Together with the Huaxin Cement purchase, once the CNBM project completes, Chinese companies will own the majority of cement production capacity in Tanzania.

Looking at Sub-Saharan Africa, Chinese cement producers look set to benefit from any potential economic realignment following the coronavirus pandemic due to their conservative approach in expanding overseas. By investing cautiously and generally avoiding large-scale international acquisitions and mergers they have insulated themselves relatively well from any potential economic crisis. One weakness though is a reliance on the strong Chinese domestic market. If, say, it declines over a longer period due to the coronavirus crisis or ever reaches more ‘normal’ per-capita cement consumption figures then expanding too slowly overseas might look like the wrong strategy in retrospect. Yet, if western competitors start retreating further then the temptation to start to buy assets in bulk may grow. Another risk is how badly the coronavirus outbreak hits countries in Africa. The combination of poor healthcare systems, younger populations and warmer climates make it extremely unpredictable. Fortune may favour the bold but slow success seems to be working well for Chinese producers so far.

China: The board of directors of Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement has elected Lin Rong as its chairman. The 48-year old economist has previously worked for Xingang Group as well as Xinyu Iron and Steel Group.

Tanzania: Huaxin Cement has announced the completion of its acquisition of Kenya-based Athi River Mining (ARM) Cement’s Tanzanian subsidiary Maweni Limestone. Reuters has reported that Huaxin Cement will invest US$30m in completing upgrades to the company’s plants in addition to an investment of US$116m to settle Maweni Limestone’s debts.

Guinea: Sinoma Construction has reported that the first batch of cement has been produced from a moveable modular grinding (MMG) mill at a grinding plant in Guinea. Sinoma Construction produced and pre-assembled the mill in China. It said that this method ‘reduces installation time by 56%, reduces CO₂ emissions by 43% and reduces the necessary labour by 70%.’ Sinoma Construction said that the project’s safe completion demonstrates that, “the project department is doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, overcoming difficulties and successfully completing the commissioning of equipment.”

Vietnam: Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. The value of these exports declined by 17.4% to US$301m, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Exports to China dropped by 5.4% to 2.73Mt, exports to the Philippines dropped by 27.5% to 1.47Mt, exports to Bangladesh dropped by 5.5% to 1.34Mt and exports to Taiwan dropped by 7% to 0.46Mt.

Democratic Republic of Congo: China-based Sinoma International Engineering has announced the construction of a 1.0Mt/yr-capacity integrated cement plant in Lubudi Territory, Lualaba Province. Dow Jones Newswire has reported that the cost of the plant, which includes a lime production line, will be US$236m.

Switzerland: LafargeHolcim has reported sales of Euro5.03bn in the first quarter of 2020, down by 11% year-on-year from Euro5.66bn in the corresponding period of 2019. Cement sales over the period fell by 10% year-on-year to 45.0Mt from 50.0Mt. The group’s earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) was Euro249m, down by 14% from Euro290m.

LafargeHolcim CEO Jan Jenisch said that the results showed the group’s ‘resilience, despite the COVID-19 outbreak in China’ in January 2020. Other markets were disrupted from mid-March. “I am confident that LafargeHolcim will emerge from this pandemic as an important contributor to economic recovery as building activity gets back to normal,” he added.

LafargeHolcim’s coronavirus action plan consists of a Euro380m year-on-year capex reduction, a Euro285m year-on-year fixed cost reduction, realisation of energy price reductions, a review of all third party products and services and a reduction of net working capital in line with the level of activity.