Displaying items by tag: China

South Korea: Due to high prices of cement, the government has announced plans to import Chinese cement, which is reportedly about 15% cheaper than domestically produced cement. The preparations to import it, including certification and the construction of storage warehouses, will take about two years.

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans last week to add the cement sector to the country’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) by the end of 2024. The ministry has started the consultation process to also add steel and aluminium production to the system. 2024 will be used as a control year for the new industries entering the scheme, an implementation phase will run in 2025 and 2026 and then the quota allocated to companies will start to be reduced from 2027 onwards. Plants that emit 26,000t/yr of CO₂ or higher will be included in the ETS.

Clearly this is a big deal for the cement industry worldwide, as China produces around half of the world’s cement. As Ian Riley the CEO of the World Cement Association commented, "The inclusion of cement in the Chinese ETS is a critical and long-awaited step. As we have seen in Europe, a well-implemented carbon ETS can be beneficial by not only curbing emissions but also catalysing industry restructuring that favours the most efficient and lowest-emitting producers. This move signals China’s intent to prioritise sustainability in high-emission sectors…” In 2023, for example, China produced 2.02Bnt of cement compared to a global output of 4.10Bnt. This compares to the 176Mt of cement produced in the European Union (EU) in 2022. The EU, of course, is the home of the world’s second largest ETS.

China’s National ETS originally started in 2021 focusing on the power generation sector. It followed several pilot markets in eight regions, which continue to operate in parallel with the national system. At present the National ETS covers more than 2000 companies with emissions exceeding that 26,000t/yr of CO₂ figure mentioned above. These are mostly generation businesses, but it does also cover captive power plants. Overall, the scheme is estimated to cover around 5Bnt/yr of CO₂ and accounts for over 40% of the countryʼs CO₂ emissions. The current targets are an 18% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP compared to 2020 levels by 2025, peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060. Following the addition of the cement, steel and aluminium sectors, however, the ETS is estimated to grow to 8Bnt/yr of CO₂ and it should account for 60% of the country’s CO₂ output.

In April 2024 the average spot price of emissions traded on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange reached €12.7/t of CO₂. This was a notable milestone because in the local currency it exceeded the ‘psychological’ 100 Chinese Yuan threshold. Meanwhile, the EU ETS CO₂ price started to increase in 2021 finally making it just past Euro100/t of CO₂ in early 2023. Since then, it has declined somewhat but remains at €50-75, well above the levels of the 2010s.

In practical terms the real significance of China’s National ETS for the cement sector should begin to be felt once the government starts to tighten up the allocated quotas from 2027 onwards. It is at this point that it will become apparent how the system is being used to drive the pace of decarbonisation. The other part of this to watch is if or when domestic talk turns to setting up a version of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to stop imports. It is at this point that one might be able to tell if the ETS has ‘bite.’

The government has not been shy in regulating industry and one of its starkest tools so far in tackling overcapacity has been mandating cement plants to simply stop production for some months of the year through so-called peak shifting. The National ETS gives it another tool to drive policy changes. Yet it is more complicated and with wider implications to other industries than simply telling plants to take a break. How it fits in globally, where there is a significant difference between the ETS price in China and the EU, remains to be seen. Yet, any additional CO₂-based burden upon the cement sector in the world’s largest cement producing country is a major step towards decarbonisation.

China: China plans to expand its national carbon trading market to encompass the cement industry by the end of 2024, Bloomberg reports. This initiative, announced by Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu, aims to reduce emissions in high-pollution sectors and prepare for the EU’s impending carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) starting in 2026. Currently limited to 2200 power utilities, the expansion will integrate seven more sectors into the market, which China hopes will cover 70% of its emissions by 2030. The Ministry is reportedly seeking public feedback on the proposal until 19 September 2024.

It won’t be a surprise to most readers that the Chinese cement industry continued to struggle in the first half of 2024. The China Cement Association (CCA) summarised the situation as a "continuous decline in demand, low price fluctuations and continuous losses in the industry." Cement output fell year-on-year and four of the six large cement companies featured in this article reported falls in revenue. The CCA estimated that the sector as a whole lost about US$140m in the first half of the year.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2019 to first half of 2024. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 13% to 855Mt in the first half of 2024 from 980Mt in the same period in 2023. That’s a fall of more than 100Mt and around the annual cement production capacity of the US! Analysis by the CCA reckons that the first half of 2024 saw the lowest cement production since 2011. It blamed the situation on the failure of the real estate market to stabilise and a slowdown in infrastructure investment. Geographically the areas with the biggest declines were the Northeast, Northwest and Central and South regions. Those provinces with the smallest declines were Tibet, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Hebei. However, the CCA was keen to point out that staggered production, through initiatives such as peak shifting, took place in the second quarter of 2024, the producers’ cement inventory fell and cement prices rallied somewhat in June 2024.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: For CNBM Basic building materials segment revenue shown only.

CNBM says that it is the largest cement producer in the world. However, Anhui Conch appears to have sold more cement and clinker than CNBM did… in the first half of 2024 at least. Anhui Conch sold 126Mt of cement and clinker, a drop of 3% year-on-year, compared to 114Mt by CNBM, a drop of 20%. Anhui Conch’s sales revenue and net profit fell by 30% to US$6.4bn and 48% to US$490m respectively. The sales revenue from CNBM’s Basic Building Materials segment, its division that manufactures cement, deceased by 31% to US$5.73bn. Tangshan Jidong and CRC reported similar situations to their larger peers with declines in revenue and profit.

Huaxin Cement and Taiwan Cement both managed to raise revenue, but this was mostly due to their businesses outside of China. Huaxin Cement increased its operating income by 3% to US$2.3bn, with sales volumes of cement falling at home but growing abroad. Indeed, its domestic operating income fell by 32% to US$716m, a similar rate of decline to the other companies featured here. By comparison, the operating income from its overseas cement business rose by 55% to US$502m. Combined with a boost in aggregate sales volumes, this helped to stabilise the company’s financial performance. Taiwan Cement, meanwhile, completed its acquisition of Cimpor Portugal in March 2024 giving it a majority stake in OYAK’s cement business in Türkiye. Subsequently, its revenue in the second quarter of 2024 shot up year-on-year.

CNBM hit the nail on the head in its half-year report when it said: “The overcapacity has not been fundamentally resolved.” China is a big country with lots of regional variation but when cement plants stopped manufacturing cement in the second quarter of 2024 the price improved. Funny that should happen! The government is slowly making adjustments to the real estate market and other mechanisms, including the China national emissions trading system, are due to be applied to cement plants soon. Yet, until that overcapacity is addressed or unless some market fundamentals change then expect to see more of the same in China in the near future.

China: The sales revenue from CNBM’s cement manufacturing division fell by 31% year-on-year to US$5.70bn in the first half of 2024 from US$8.25bn in the same period in 2023. The group blamed the decline on falling sales volumes of cement and aggregates and decreasing prices of heavy building materials. Its Basic Building Materials segment reported an operating loss of US$261m from an operating profit of US$348m previously. The division sold 114Mt of cement and clinker, a fall of 20% from 142Mt.

In its interim report the group said that its Basic Building Materials segment had been “…affected by a combination of factors, such as the in-depth adjustment of the real estate and funding constraints for infrastructure projects.” Subsequently the cement industry had faced low demand and prices. It added that market overcapacity had not been resolved.

Overall the group’s revenue and gross profit fell by 19% to US$11.7bn and by 25% to US$1.86bn respectively. However, income from its Engineering Technology Services segment rose by 2% to US$2.89bn. This division includes cement plant and equipment supplier Sinoma International. The group noted that global engineering and construction demand remained stable in the first half of 2024.

Cambodia: China-based Jiangxi Provincial Building Material Group plans to establish a cement plant in Cambodia. Company president Wensheng Chen led a delegation on 29 August 2024 to assess investment opportunities, meeting with officials from the Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC).

Chea Vuthy, secretary-general of the CDC’s Cambodia Investment Board (CIB), said "The CIB’s management and officials look forward to providing all possible arrangements for the company to invest in Cambodia."

China: Anhui Conch Cement recorded a decline in its net profit of 49% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, Reuters has reported. The group’s Building Materials Industry business reported a 21% year-on-year decline in its sales to US$4.71bn. Its Cement business also recorded declining sales, by 23% to US$3.87bn.

Kyrgyzstan: 174,800t of cement entered Kyrgyzstan in the first half of 2024, more than double first-half 2023 import volumes of 83,200t. Neighbouring Kazakhstan supplied 152,000t (87%) of the total, according to data from the Kyrgyz National Statistical Committee. Central Asia News has reported that other imports originated from China, Iran and Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan’s first-half cement production declined by 2% year-on-year in the period under review, to 1.3Mt. However, it grew by 10% year-on-year in June 2024. The country exported 190,000t of cement throughout the first half of 2024, all of it to Uzbekistan, down by 21% from first-half 2023 levels.

A couple of stories have popped up this week regarding restrictions on cement imports. First, authorities in Taiwan have launched an anti-dumping investigation into Vietnamese cement. Secondly, and perhaps more surprisingly given its growing economy, the authorities in Kyrgyzstan are planning to ban overland imports of cement from within Central Asia. More on that later…

First, to the Far East, where Taiwan’s Trade Remedies Authority has launched an anti-dumping investigation into cement and clinker imported from Vietnam. It will assess imports covering the year from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024 and target seven specific Vietnamese cement producers among others. The Vietnamese companies are mandatory respondents – they will be compelled to answer investigators’ questions.

Vietnamese cement has long been among the cheapest in the region due to the country’s drive to hit production targets, rather than simply meeting demand. The situation has resulted in a vast amount of cement available for export. This, coupled to Vietnam’s long, indented coastline, makes it easy to ship cement overseas.

Even with export volumes falling by 1.2% year-on-year to 31.3Mt in 2023, around a third of Vietnam’s capacity, this is a massive volume of cement - and it’s only getting cheaper. The average export value of Vietnamese cement and clinker fell from US$46-48/t at the start of 2023 to just US$31-32/t in May 2024, a decline of 30-35%. These changes have been due, in part, to an increase in tax on clinker exports from 5% to 10% on 1 January 2023 and an anti-dumping investigation launched by the Philippines in March 2023. Falling prices and volumes represent a ‘double-whammy’ for producers, several of which have announced that they made losses in the first half of 2024. Vicem’s top management said that challenges also arose at home due to a reduced demand following limited civil engineering projects and a stagnant real estate market.

It is easy to see why Taiwanese cement producers may feel threatened by the prospect of greater volumes of cheap cement on their doorstep. Taiwan only made 4.9Mt/yr of cement in the first half of 2024. With domestic prices in the region of US$65-70/t according to Cement Network, this provides a very attractive margin of US$33-39/t for Vietnamese producers to export to Taiwan. It will be interesting to see how far the country’s authorities are willing to go to protect the country’s producers and whether any anti-dumping policies lead to further falls in the landed volumes of Vietnamese cement.

Meanwhile, 4600km to the west, Kyrgyzstan has announced that it will enforce a six-month road import ban on several types of cement including Portland cement, alumina cement and slag cement. The ban, affecting both cement and clinker, will take effect on 1 October 2024 and last for six months. According to the State Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, the country saw a 76% year-on-year increase in cement imports – mainly from Iran, Kazakhstan, China and Uzbekistan - between January 2024 and May 2024. The total import volume over the five months was 125,737t. For a country that made just 1Mt over the same period, this is a major change.

The overland import ban is more of a surprise than the Taiwan / Vietnam situation, as Kyrgyzstan recently reported that the North of the country was experiencing a ‘construction boom’ and cement shortages. However, two new plants due to start production in the coming months could help the country out... unless it too would like to export its newly-developed cement production capacity.

And here we arrive at a ‘classic’ impasse. From Pakistani cement in South Africa, to price arguments in West Africa, import bans in Central Asia and Vietnamese cement in Philippines and Taiwan, more and more exporters are finding that their markets are already self-sufficient in cement, with the US perhaps the notable exception. Soon there will be nowhere left for cement to be exported to. Are we at peak cement?

China: Eaton and Langham hotels have collaborated with Green Island Cement to transform 8t of oyster shells into a sustainable cement alternative, sourcing 80% of the required limestone for cement.

Amie Lai Gor, general manager of sustainability at Great Eagle Holdings, parent company of the two hotels, said "We brought together like-minded partners to repurpose oyster shells as a sustainable raw material alternative for cement production. Our goal is to encourage more hotels and restaurants to participate, diverting more discarded oyster shells from landfills through upcycling.”

Raymond Cheung Wai-man, division manager at Green Island Cement, highlighted past challenges of separating the shells from impurities like mud and residual meat, which initially deterred the project.

Lai Gor added that future plans include working with local universities to assess the carbon reduction potential of substituting limestone with oyster shells in cement production. Despite the higher costs—tenfold compared to traditional limestone—Cheung believes that scaling up could significantly lower expenses.