Displaying items by tag: Sinoma

Check out this graph of Chinese cement prices from September 2015. An author at Business Insider attributes it to Larry Hu, the Chief China Economist for Macquarie. It pretty much sums up the mood analysts have at the moment regarding the Chinese cement industry.

Figure 1: China cement prices, 2012 – 2015. Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research September 2015.

The recent announcement by the Assets Supervision and Administration Commission regarding the merger of China National Building Materials Group Corporation (CNBM) and China National Materials Group Corporation (Sinoma) comes hot on the heels of a series of poor half-year financial returns from China’s major cement producers. Attempts to tackle overcapacity in its local cement industry have been underway for a few years now. Actions taken include demolishing outmoded capacity, merging companies and expanding overseas. However as the construction markets have cooled in the country the scope of what the cement industry is facing has become clear, as revenues and profits have tumbled.

Now that the first half cement sales volume data has become available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) the response of the cement industry to its predicament has emerged. As can be seen in Figure 2 there has been a rough trend of sales decline throughout 2014 and 2015. The first half of 2016 has started to buck this trend as sales volumes have risen year-on-year for both quarters.

Figure 2 – Chinese cement production by quarter, 2014 – 2016. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Sales revenues have dropped for most of the major companies that have publicly released their results for the first half of the year. The exception is Taiwan Cement, which makes a large proportion of its sales revenue outside of China (People’s Republic of China). Its sales revenue in China barely rose year-on-year in the first half of 2016. However, the cement sales volumes for all these companies have started to show what is happening. They have risen for most of the producers examined. Essentially, each of these producers is producing more cement but making less money. As Digital Cement puts it, the industry is in a 'low-profit position.' Increased market competition and endemic industry overcapacity are causing this.

Mergers and acquisitions have been the big story for the European multinational producers following the economic crash in 2007. Returns from low growth markets have been substituted for efficiencies of scale, knowledge sharing and greater international reach. Lafarge and Holcim merged in 2015 and HeidelbergCement is due to complete its acquisition of Italcementi later this year. However, as LafargeHolcim's disappointing financial returns and its continued slew of divestments show so far, the merger has not worked as well as may have been hoped… yet.

Whether China's version of this works with its large state owned enterprises is uncertain. Mergers are meant to cut out inefficiencies through economies of scale. Yet the question remains: can even larger Chinese cement producers do this when they are state controlled and harangued by pressures outside the normal market, particularly when local regions try to preserve their industries. The last such big deal, between Anhui Conch and China Resources Cement, fell apart in July 2016. The plans for CNBM and Sinoma may fare better but if the price of cement keeps falling then the market may have other ideas.

For more information see the China country report in the September 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine

A Sinoma subsidiary was raking in the big bucks this week with the announcement that it had booked a Euro1.05bn order with the Egyptian government. The order was for six 6000t/day cement production lines plus assorted maintenance contracts from Chengdu Design and Research Institute of Building Materials Industry (CDI).

The order caps a busy month for Sinoma. At the start of June, another subsidiary, CBMI, said that it had picked up deals to build two new lines in Algeria for Groupe des Ciments d’Algérie. Around the same time another project in the country, a joint venture between Lafarge Algeria and Souakri Group, revealed that it had started commissioning its mill. Other assorted cement projects announced so far in 2016 include a waste heat recovery unit for Thai Pride Cement in Thailand, a conversion to coal burning at South Valley Cement in Egypt and various orders for mills via Loesche for Sinoma projects in Vietnam.

The scale of that latest Egyptian order becomes apparent when one looks at Sinoma, or China National Materials Group Corporation’s, annual results. It reported revenue of US$8.08bn in 2015, a slight decrease from US$8.38bn in 2014. Those six lines represent 13% of the group’s entire turnover in 2015. That’s one humongous order. The last time Sinoma signed a cement deal on this magnitude was in August 2015 when Nigerai’s Dangote placed an order at a value of US$1.49bn.

Elsewhere on the balance sheet for 2015, its profit fell markedly by 25% year-on-year to US$150m from US$200m. However, its new order intake grew by 14% to US$5.1bn. Overseas orders accounted for over three quarters of this or US$4.32bn, its highest level on record. This compares to its rival FLSmidth’s new order intake of US$2.8bn in 2015. It declared that it would continue to seek business outside of China in line with the country’s ‘One belt, one road’ policy focusing on Central Asia and South America.

This growth by Chinese engineering companies on the world stage may have been stymied in 2015. The Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (VDMA) in Germany reported in April 2016 that the members of its Industrial Plant Manufacturers’ Group (AGAB) had booked orders of Euro19.5bn in 2015, a similar figure to its orders in 2014. This compared to a drop of 63% of large plant orders (not just cement) in 2014 from Euro5.29bn in 2013. AGAB saw opportunity in service industries for its German members as markets stalled in Russia and Brazil, and China’s property market faced its own problems. Research by UBS Evidence Lab, as reported by the Financial Times in May 2016, has taken a different view, suggesting that Chinese construction quarry equipment manufacturers such as Sany, Zoomlion and XCMG were likely to expand their market share outside of China to 15% by 2025. At present the research pegged them at 7%.

Expansion comes with its risks though. In late May 2016 Sinoma International Engineering reported details of a tax dispute it was suffering in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi subsidiary of the company was levelled with a request for unpaid back taxes from 2006 and 2008. At the time it was appealing against a bill of US$18m. In a changing global marketplace some things never change. Global success it seems is taxed.

The Chinese stock market volatility this week has not been a surprise for the cement industry. The question for both the local cement industry and the wider economy is how the current economic jitters are being managed. Are we witnessing the long expected hard landing of the Chinese economy or will the state planners been able to dodge it?

Growth in the housing market and infrastructure spending has been falling. The country's cement producers have reduced their production growth as the industry consolidates. First half profits in 2015 have fallen for many Chinese cement producers including China Resources Cement and Asia Cement. Anhui Conch, one of the top three cement producers in the world, reported that its first quarter profits in 2015 fell by 31%.

Chinese cement production figures have always seemed incompatible with other data suggesting incomplete information. For example, the Global Cement Directory 2015 reported China's cement production capacity at 1.48Bnt/yr. At full capacity utilisation this would suggest a national cement consumption of 1057kg/capita, a figure that bears no resemblance to any other country on earth with the exception of petrochemical giants like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Although, to be fair to China, it's recent economic growth has been unprecedented. Poor reporting, the country's unique state regulated capitalism, language difficulties and other factors may all have contributed to confusion among western analysts.

In mid-August 2015 China devalued the Yuan in its biggest drop in 20 years. It is likely it was a strategy to boost exports to rally markets against a sliding stock market since mid June. At the time of writing the Chinese authorities have now tried cutting interest rates with a similar aim and the markets have rallied.

The effect of a devalued Yuan is relevant due to China's overcapacity in several heavy industries such as a steel and cement. Already European and North American steel bodies have cried out against the threat of fresh Chinese exports undercutting their business. Clinker exports are likely to pose less of a risk given its relative low value and high transport costs. Even so, China exported less than 15Mt in 2013, a tiny portion of its production capacity. Altering the exchange rate might well help that export figure creep up. This would be bad news for local cement producers in coastal areas of East Africa for example. Here, Chinese imports might be harder to resist than, say, southern Asian ones, due to Chinese investment in the region. Recent spats over Chinese cement imports in Kenya and Zimbabwe underline this issue.

More worrying for the wider cement industry will be the risk of Chinese cement plant manufacturers and suppliers further undercutting western firms. Eurocement signed a deal with Sinoma in November 2014 for the Chinese equipment producer to supply three 3Mt/yr production lines for US$93.3m each or just over US$30m per 1Mt of production capacity. Compare this to FLSmidth's charge to a Qatari firm of US$190m in October 2014 to build a 2.24Mt/yr production line or just over US$80m per 1Mt of production capacity. This is not a completely fair comparison due to the plants being in completely different regions, but it gives some idea of the price pressures non-Chinese equipment manufacturers face. In their defence the usual argument is that their equipment is better made. However, cement producers being able to buy even cheaper Chinese kit will not help their plight. Today we report on Dangote Cement signing yet more contracts with Sinoma to build new cement plants in Africa.

The actions of the Chinese financial authorities show that they are trying careful tweaks one-by-one to fix the situation. The real problem though is that, as China transitions from a developing nation into a developed one, broader structural changes to the general economy may be required instead of tweaks. A massively over-producing cement industry is a symptom of this and how the country copes with it is instructive to how it will succeed overall. Bold attempts to consolidate the industry have shown willingness in recent years. Unfortunately the current crisis may artificially prop up an industry that should be reducing in size.

Startling news from Hebei, China this week. The northerly province intends to move out its excess capacity in heavy industries, including cement, to other countries by 2023. 5Mt of cement production capacity is planned for transfer by 2017 and 30Mt is planned for transfer by 2023. The larger figure is about the same as the cement production capacity of France or Germany!

Hebei isn't the biggest cement-producing province in China but it has received attention as the authorities have cut down on 'out-dated' production capacity. The region was targeted in a programme to cut emissions from heavy industry due to its proximity to Beijing and that city's smog issues.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set a target of 60Mt/yr in cement production capacity to be cut by 2017. The region was also the site of massive cement plant demolitions in late 2013 and early 2014. 18 cement plants were demolished in December 2013 followed by 17 cement plants in February 2014 alongside the destruction of connected grinding and storage capacity. Overall an incredible 74 cement plants in the area surrounding Shijiazhuang alone were targeted for demolition by March 2014.

Following this massive spate of capacity elimination, the public announcement to actively move abroad marks a stark change to China's general cement industry strategy so far. The country's equipment suppliers like Sinoma have been taking business from European rivals like FLSmidth or KHD for some time now especially in developing markets.

In 2013, FLSmidth reported a cement market order intake of US$575m and KHD reported an order intake of US$216m. In comparison Sinoma's cement equipment and engineering services reported order intake of US$5.59bn. In its annual report for 2013 FLSmidth estimated that the global market for new kiln capacity was 50Mt. At a capacity construction price of US$150/t this suggests that Sinoma took orders for nearly three quarters of the world's required capacity for new cement kilns in 2013. Order intake covers more than just building cement plants, so this quick calculation presents only a rough impression of what's going on.

More recently Chinese cement producers have started building their own cement plants or funding them outside of China. In October 2014 State Development and Investment Corp and Anhui Conch Cement Company announced plans to fund a plant in Indonesia. In September 2014 ground breaking was held for a Chinese-funded plant in Kyrgyzstan. In June 2014, Huaxin Cement invested in Cambodia Cement. This was its second overseas investment following a project in Tajikistan in 2011.

With China's government still attempting to avoid a hard economic landing as its growth slows, moving industrial overcapacity overseas makes sense. International and national players must be worried about the potential scale of this transition. On the plus side, however, those notorious inscrutable Chinese production figures in the cement industry will be far easier to analyse in plants outside of China facing international competition. Today Hebei, tomorrow the world!

Last week's news that Sinoma is considering European acquisitions may seem a little odd considering that Sinoma saw its profit halve in 2012. Yet the Chinese cement equipment builder and cement producer's income (US$3.42bn) puts it level with the likes of European producers, like Italcementi (US$5.75bn) and Buzzi Unicem (US$3.58bn), and the company still made a sizeable profit (US$123m).

Now what really seems odd is the amount by which each of the major Chinese cement producers' profits fell in 2012. Each of the top five producers by capacity, including Sinoma, saw their profits decrease by 40% to 50%. CNBM 'forgot' to report its profit drop but in November 2012 it recorded a 40% fall. Anhui Conch Cement's profit fell by 45.6% to US$1.03bn. Jidong Cement hasn't released any figures but was expecting a 50% drop in late October 2012. China Resources' profit fell by 44.4% to US$300m. Compare that with the diversity of profits reported by the top five European cement producers.

As has been clearly signposted by the Chinese government, the country is overproducing cement. Just how much we can't be sure but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology declared that 220Mt/yr of 'obsolete' capacity was eliminated in 2012. The country's entire output was placed at 2.18Bt in official figures.

Outmoded capacity is being shut down and industry consolidation encouraged for the main players. Given the state-owned nature of Chinese heavy industry some level of coordination between bad results is to be expected. To give readers an idea of the challenge facing Chinese central planners, Anhui Conch added 28.3Mt/yr of additional cement production capacity in 2012. This is equivalent to the entire capacity of Nigeria or Germany!

Of interest here are China's cement export figures that the government's General Administration of Customs recently released. Exports hit a peak of 33Mt in 2007 and then declined by 68% to 11Mt in 2011. In 2012 they increased slightly to 12Mt. That's 20Mt of cement not leaving the country any more. Plus, the 'Shenzhen sea-sand in concrete scandal' can't be helping the industry's reputation abroad either.

Also of note last week, a Kyrgyzstan minister proposed restricting imports of Chinese cement to his country. Cement produced at Chinese-owned plants will be much harder to block. The next prong of the Chinese plan to tackle its cement industry is direct overseas expansion and this is what we're seeing from the likes of Sinoma and Anhui Conch. Sinoma, as mentioned above, appears to have cash to spend and in 2012 Anhui Conch began its first international project in Indonesia.

Liu Ming of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) once again stated the obvious this week: China is producing too much cement.

He made the same warning on overcapacity that has been made all year. Officials from the NDRC have recommended stricter controls on new capacity, faster mergers and acquisitions, elimination of out-dated capacity and faster industry upgrades. Unsurprisingly this is exactly the line that China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) was hawking in its 12th Five-year Plan (2011-2015) for the country's building materials industry that it released back in 2011.

So what's actually happened since last time Liu Ming played Cassandra?

Back in July 2012, at the time of the half-year financial reports, it looked like Chinese cement producers were facing profit gaps of around 50%. Now it looks worse. Major producer China National Building Material Co (CNBM) has reported a drop in net profit of 40% to US$575m for the nine months to 30 September 2012. Anhui Conch has reported a drop in net profit of 57% to US$632m. China National Materials Co Ltd (Sinoma) has reported a 76% drop in net profit to US$48.8m for the same period. Jidong Cement reported a 83% drop in net profit to US$38.6m.

In 2010 Chinese cement production was 1.87Bt. In 2011 it was 2.06Bt, according to Chinese state-released statistics. From January to September 2012, the country produced 1.59Bt of cement, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. For the full year of 2012 it is estimated that China will produce 2.8Bt/yr. However, according to the NDRC production growth have fallen to 6.7% in 2012 compared to 11.4% in 2011. Capacity is still rising whilst profits are plummeting.

At the start of 2012 the Chinese Vice Minister of Environment Protection, Zhang Lijun, announced that the ministry plans to introduce stricter rules on NOx emissions from cement plants. At the time it was reckoned that the move could wipe out a third of the industry's total net profits. Then in September 2012, industry reports suggested that the government was now going to set nitrogen oxide emissions to 300mg/m3, below the international standard of 400mg/m3. It was estimated that only about a third of producers would be able to afford the necessary upgraded equipment to meet the requirement. Then, also in September 2012, the Guangdong Emissions Trading Scheme (GETS) was launched, which might offer another way of restraining production.

In summary: profits are tumbling, production is probably slowing and new controls are as-yet unbinding. Yet, perhaps Liu Ming repeated his warning for one particular audience who can make a difference. On 8 November 2012 the Chinese Communist Party holds its 18th national congress to decide the new leadership. Producers like West China Cement are certainly hoping this shakes things up. It recently announced that it was waiting for new infrastructure projects to be approved to swallow up its growing surplus.

Cement industry results from China have all told an alarming story this week: profits for the first half of 2012 look set to fall by more than 50% year-on-year.

China Resources Cement Holdings warned that its first-half earnings were down sharply. China National Materials Co. Ltd. (Sinoma), the cement equipment and engineering services provider, and Gansu Qilianshan Cement, a small Shanghai-listed cement producer, have both forecast similar drops. Sinoma blamed its drop in profit partly on an overseas project but 'interestingly' no further information was released detailing which project.

Previous to this in June 2012 Anhui Conch Cement warned that its net profit would fall by more than 50% due to weak demand and falling product prices. In May 2012 China National Building Material Co Ltd (CNBM) reported that its net profit for the first quarter of 2012 was down by 45% year-on-year. In April 2012 Jidong Cement reported an increase in its net loss for the first quarter and a year-on-year revenue drop of 14%.

Each of the Chinese big players in the cement industry have issued profit warnings of a similar scale suggesting that the Chinese market faces a uniform downturn or that a slowdown is being centrally managed. Official signs that the Chinese industry faced a slowdown emerged in March 2012 when the national growth target was lowered, analysts' predictions were released forecasting weakened profits for the nation's main producers and government officials admitted that overcapacity loomed within five years.

According to OneStone Research data on the Chinese market in 2010 CNBM, Anhui Conch, Jidong and Sinoma represented over 20% of Chinese capacity. To give these figures some perspective, in 2011 CNBM's profit was US$1.7bn. Holcim's operating profit for the same period was US$2bn and Lafarge's operating income was US$2.74bn. Even halved, CNBM's profit is a massive figure for a company with less of an international presence than the European multinationals.