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Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) Cimentos was confirmed this week as the agreed buyer for Holcim’s Brazilian cement business for US$1.03bn. The deal includes five integrated cement plants, four grinding plants and 19 ready-mix concrete facilities. CSN is now poised to become Brazil’s third-largest cement producer by production capacity after Votorantim and InterCement. Or second place if you believe CSN’s cheeky claims about a competitor’s idle capacity!

Figure 1: Map of cement plants included in CSN Cimentos’ deal to buy LafargeHolcim Brazil assets. Source: CSN Investor Relations website.

CSN originally started out in steel production and this remains the major part of its operations to the present day. In 2020 it reported revenue of US$5.74bn. Around 55% of this came from its steel business, 42% from mining, 5% in logistics and only 3% came from its cement segment. CSN’s path in the cement sector started in 2009 when it started grinding blast furnace slag and clinker at its Presidente Vargas Plant at Volta Redonda in Rio de Janeiro state. It then started clinker production in 2011 at its integrated Arcos plant in Minas Gerais. Not a lot happened for the next decade, publicly at least, as the country faced an economic downturn and national cement sales sunk to a low in 2017. From around 2019, CSN Cimentos then started talking about a number of new proposed plant projects elsewhere in Brazil, dependent on market growth and an anticipated initial public offering (IPO). These included plants at Ceará, Sergipe, Pará and Paraná and expansion to the existing units in the south-east. Then CSN Cimentos agreed to buy Cimento Elizabeth for US$220m in July 2021.

It is worth noting that the Holcim acquisition is subject to approval by the local competition authority. For example, the Cimento Elizabeth plant and Holcim’s Caaporã plant are both in Paraíba state and within about 30km of each other. If approved, this would give CSN Cimentos two of the four integrated plants in the state, with the other two operated by Votorantim and InterCement respectively. CSN also stands to pick up four integrated plants in Minas Gerais from Holcim to add to the one it holds at present. Although this would seem to be of less concern due to the high number of plants in the state.

Holcim has made a point of saying that its divestment in Brazil is part of its strategy to refocus on sustainable building solutions with the proceeds going towards its Solutions & Products business following the Firestone acquisition that completed in early 2021. It has also stated previously that it wants to concentrate on core markets with long term prospects. In this context a major steelmaker like CSN diversifying into cement is a contrast. Both industries are high CO₂ emitters so CSN is hardly moving away from carbon-intensive sectors. Yet the two have operational, economic and sustainability synergies through the use of slag in cement production. This puts CSN Cimentos in company with Votorantim in Brazil and JSW Cement in India, two other steel manufacturers that also produce cement. Whatever else happens at the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP26) in November 2021, it seems unlikely that global demand for steel or cement is likely to be significantly reduced. CSN Cimentos is now going to resume its IPO of shares to raise funds for the Holcim acquisition.

Acquisitions are all about timing. The CSN Cimentos-Holcim deal follows the purchase of CRH Brazil by Buzzi Unicem’s Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC) joint-venture earlier in 2021. As mentioned above, the cement market in Brazil has been doing well since it started recovering in 2018. The coronavirus pandemic barely slowed this down due to weak lockdown measures compared to other countries. The current run of sales growth may be tapering off based on the latest National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) figures for August 2021. Rolling annual totals on a monthly basis had been growing since mid-2019 but this started to slow in May 2021. Annual sales will be up in 2021 based on the figures so far this year but after that, who knows? A CSN investors’ day document in December 2020 predicted, as one would expect, steady cement consumption growth in Brazil until at least 2025, based on correlated forecast growth in the general economy. Yet fears of inflation, rising prices and political uncertainty ahead of the next general election in late 2022 may undermine this. InterCement, for example, cancelled a proposed IPO in July 2021 due to low valuations amid investor uncertainty. CSN Cimentos may encounter similar issues with its own planned IPO or face over-leveraging itself when it picks up the tab for LafargeHolcim Brazil. Either way, CSN decided to take the risk on its path to becoming Brazil’s third largest cement producer.

US: The US Geological Survey (USGS) recorded a 0.8% year-on-year increase in total US cement shipments in the first half of 2021 to 50.4Mt from 50.0Mt in the first half of 2021. Domestic deliveries constituted 85% of the total at 42.6Mt, against 7.75Mt of imports (15%). Clinker imports were 1.23Mt, with a total value of US$81.6m. Turkey was the lead exporter of clinker to the US in 2020 at 470,000t (38%), followed by Saudi Arabia with 466,000t (38%) and Canada with 276,000t (22%).

It’s time for a macroscopic view of the Chinese cement sector this week with the release of the half-year financial results by some of the larger Chinese cement producers. On the national level the picture so far in 2021 has been one of continued recovery from the coronavirus lockdowns at the start of the year and then a slowing market as state controls on real estate speculation started to take effect. However, poor weather in the spring and mounting raw material prices appear to have compounded the effects of the real estate regulations, leading to price falls.

Cement output data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China in Graph 1 shows that local production took a knock in the first quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic and this strongly recovered in the same period in 2021. The market recovered fast in mid-2020 and so the year-on-year growth for the second quarter was less in 2021. Output on a monthly basis remained ahead year-on-year from April 2020 and stayed ahead until May 2021. However, output in June 2021 was behind the figure in June 2020 and the figure for July 2021 was behind both July 2020 and July 2019.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 – mid-2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The Chinese Cement Association (CCA) was lamenting falling cement prices at the start of July 2021. It blamed the situation on slowing infrastructure development in some regions, increasing government restrictions on real estate development, especially poor mid-year weather and higher input prices such as for steel. China Resources Cement (CRC) expanded upon the point about increasing real estate regulations in its financial results for the first half of 2021 explaining that the Chinese government has been promoting a policy that aims to ensure that “residential properties are not for speculation” including controls on the financing of real estate. Later in mid-August 2021 the CCA reported that prices were recovering in east and central-southern regions although the situation remained poor in Guizhou province with shipments down to 60% of normal levels. Production control measures are expected to be implemented to stabilise the situation.

Graph 2: Sales revenue of large Chinese cement producers in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Company reports.

On the corporate side the sales revenue from some of the large Chinese cement producers mostly show the usual gap-tooth pattern that coronavirus has created everywhere as the market recovered. Notably Anhui Conch managed to avoid falling sales year-on-year in the first half of 2020. However, the CCA’s observation above about rising input costs is visible in the falling profits of some (but not all) of the companies covered here. For example, Anhui Conch’s net profit fell by 7% year-on-year to US$2.32bn in the first half of 2021. It blamed this on a significant rise in the price of raw coal. CRC also reported falling profits attributable to increased production costs.

CNBM reported an increase to cement and clinker sales volumes of 7.6% to 177Mt and concrete sales volumes by 13.4% to 52Mm³. It noted that, “In the first half of 2021, the national cement market showed the characteristics of high price level fluctuation adjustment.” From January to April 2021 local fiscal policy boosted demand for cement but from May 2021 continuous heavy rainfall and increasing bulk commodity prices slowed infrastructure project development. Anhui Conch’s cement and clinker sales volumes for both production and trading grew by 11.5% to 208Mt. It reported stable market demand in eastern, central and southern regions but noted falling prices in the west.

Looking ahead, two issues, among many, to consider are carbon trading and imports. The former has been coming for a while and was launched formally online nationally in mid-July 2021 for the power generation industry. The carbon price was nearly Euro7/t in late July 2021 in China compared to around Euro53/t in the European Union. Cement and steel are expected to join the Chinese national scheme in the next phase although analysts believe that issues such as data gathering, permit allocation rules, accounting standards, sector reduction targets and related financial support all need to be improved before this can happen. Imports are a connected issue and it has been interesting in recent months to hear financial analysts point out the risks, for example, of major exporting nations such as Vietnam relying on China so much. The CCA reckons that China imported 33.4Mt of clinker in 2020, an increase of 47% year-on-year, with 60% of this derived from Vietnam. With the Chinese government trying to tackle cement production overcapacity and meet growing environmental targets, imports look set to become a ‘hot ticket’ issue. In this context it is telling to see talk from the CCA of ensuring standards for imports such as verified carbon emissions. Naturally, the imports that could be trusted the most will probably be the ones from plants that Chinese cement producers have built themselves overseas. As waste importers into China found out previously, relying heavily on one market with strong state controls carries considerable risks. Cement exporters in South-East Asia take note.

Kenya: Cement producers recorded a 28% year-on-year increase in production in the first five months of 2021 to 3.35Mt from 2.65Mt in the first five months of 2020. The Business Daily newspaper has reported that the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics recorded a 27% increase in cement consumption to 3.35Mt from 2.64Mt. The increases follow a rise in infrastructure investment by the government, especially in the roads and dams segments. Increased credit requests by property developers also indicate a recovery in the private sector following the decline of the Covid-19 outbreak. Kenyan gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast at 6% in the 2021 full year.

Uzbekistan: Cement production grew by 23% year-on-year to 5.8Mt in the first half of 2021. Data from the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan shows that production increased fastest in the second quarter. It was previously reported that the country imported 1Mt of cement in the first four months of the year. 48% came from Kazakhstan, 27% from the Kyrgyzstan, 23% from Tajikistan and 1% from both Iran and Turkmenistan.

Colombia: Cement production grew by 33% to 6.50Mt in the first half of 2021 from 4.89Mt in the same period in 2020. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics authority, shows that local despatches rose by 34% to 6.20Mt from 4.61Mt.

There has been a significant investment in the South Korean cement industry this week with the news that Hanil Hyundai Cement has ordered a steam-based waste heat recovery (WHR) system from Japan-based Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The 22.6MW system will be used on two of the production lines at the Yeongwol plant in Gangwon Province. The supplier says that installation is expected to generate about 30% of the energy the plant needs and save around 10,000t/yr of CO₂ in the process. Delivery is scheduled for late 2022.

This order may be the first investment following the announcement in late June 2021 that the state-owned Korea Development Bank had pledged around US$870m towards supporting the cement sector in making carbon reduction upgrades by 2025. These are intended to include moving away from burning fossil fuels in cement production and increasing the use of recycling materials. At the time of the agreement between the bank and the Korea Cement Association (KCA), Hanil Hyundai Cement noted that the local alternative fuels substitution rate was 24% compared to 46% in the European Union and 68% in Germany.

Graph 1: Cement production in South Korea, 2010 – 2020. Source: Korea Cement Association

By European or American standards South Korea kept its coronavirus cases under control in 2020. A robust testing and contract tracing regime (K-Quarantine) managed to prevent the country enforcing stricter measures until late in 2020. A fourth wave of infections, currently underway in July 2021, due to the more contagious Delta variant, has started to change this. Despite being able to keep its economy open though, the construction sector still took a hit although not as bad as initially feared.

Cement production fell by 6% year-on-year to 47.5Mt in 2020 from 50.6Mt in 2019 following a downward trend since 2017. The KCA expected worse after a poor third quarter in 2020 when it was preparing for shipments to fall below the level last seen in the midst of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) crisis in the late 1990s. On top of this the industry was also potentially facing a new tax on production towards the end of 2020. One large local producer, Ssangyong C&E, reported a 5% year-on-year drop in sales to US$864m in 2020 from US$910m in 2019. However, it managed to increase its operating profit over the same period. So far in 2021 the sector faced supply shortages in the spring. The KSA blamed the winter plant maintenance schedule and a lack of railway wagons and trucks.

The timing of the Korea Development Bank investment in the cement sector is interesting given the movement on the European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism. Cement exports seem unlikely to be affected but business lobbyists like the Federation of Korean Industries are well aware of the effects schemes like this might have upon commodities like steel and aluminium in the first phase and then the implications for car production later on. Target markets for cement exports such as the US, Peru, Chile and the Philippines might all become vulnerable should carbon-based trade restrictions become more prevalent. Of course export markets remain vulnerable to more usual hindrances. For example, in March 2021 the Philippines extended its safeguard measures on cement imports to various countries including South Korea.

Following a round of market consolidation in the late 2010s, the South Korean cement sector now appears to be entering a phase of sustainable realignment. In late May 2021 Prime Minister Moon Jae-in announced plans to hasten the country’s carbon reduction targets ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference scheduled for November 2021, including a carbon tax. With cement production on a downward trend since 2017 and the coronavirus crisis far from gone it will be instructive to see how far the intervention of the Korea Development Bank will go.

Peru: Cement production in the 12 months ending on 30 June 2021 was 12.2Mt, up by 43% year-on-year from 8.54Mt in the previous 12 months. Data from the Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) shows that local dispatches totalled 11.9Mt, up by 42% from 8.41Mt.

Cement exports recorded a drop, down by 7% to 0.16Mt from 0.17Mt, while clinker exports rose by 44% to 0.52Mt from 0.36Mt. High demand led to an increase in imports to 0.94Mt of cement, up by 59% from 0.59Mt, and 1.41Mt of clinker, almost triple the previous year’s volume of 0.48Mt.

Spain: Cement consumption grew by 17% year-on-year to 7.31Mt of cement in the first half of 2021 from 6.23Mt in the same period in 2020. Oficemen, the Spanish cement association, said that the figure for 2021 remained 1.4% below the same period in 2019 though. However, the consumption in June 2021 was looking promising compared to both the same month in 2020 and 2019. Exports increased by 36% to 3.8Mt in the reporting period. The association celebrated this figure but warned that high electricity and CO2 taxes could potentially have a negative effect on future exports by the sector.

Brazil: Cement sales totalled 31.5Mt in the first half of 2021, up by 16% year-on-year. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) attributed the growth to home renovations and new construction projects. The association has forecast total sales for 2021 of 64.2Mt, corresponding to an increase of 6% compared to 2020 levels. It expects the same segments to drive growth in 2022, though at a lower rate.