Displaying items by tag: data

Qatar: Qatar witnessed robust month-on-month cement production growth during September 2020 as the country scaled back its Covid-19 restrictions. Cement production increased by 9.1%. Cement was one of a number of sectors to buck a wider trend of a continued industrial slowdown, according to the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA). However, the volume of cement produced was 3.1% lower than in September 2019.

Last week’s financial results from Çimsa contained a glimmer of hope for the Turkish cement market. Its net sales grew by 27% year-on-year to Euro175m in the first nine months of 2020 and operating profit more than doubled. Crucially, the balance between domestic and export sales tilted back a little toward the local market at a 55/45 ratio rather than 40/60 for the same period in 2019. Oyak Cement, another of the larger local producers, reported a similar rise in sales also. Akçansa Çimento, the joint venture between Sabancı Holding and HeidelbergCement, saw its sales fall slightly so far in 2020 but its profit grew. These financial results are all surprising given the currency and debt crisis the country faced in 2018 and now coronavirus in 2020.

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Turkey, January – July 2017 – 2020. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB)

Graph 1 above shows the general picture of the Turkish cement industry for the first seven months of each year to put the data so far in 2020 into context. The general Turkish economy faced problems in the middle of the year when the value of the Turkish Lira dropped sharply in mid-2018 and interest rates rose sharply. Subsequently, annual cement sales fell by over 20% year-on-year to 56.5Mt in 2019. A couple of weeks ago the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB) said that the sector started 2020 optimistically with a recovery in January 2020. Coronavirus then hit, causing a contraction in the domestic market for the next four months. However, the construction market picked up again in June 2020 and this is expected to have continued into August 2020.

The cement sector previously pivoted to exports strongly with nearly a 50% bump up in exports to 11Mt in 2019. 2020 has been similar so far for the export market with a 40% rise year-on-year from January to July 2020 to around 9Mt. Much of these exports have gone to the US with local media and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reporting that the North American country took 18% of Turkey’s Euro840m cement exports from January to September 2020. Focusing on international trade has not come without a price though. In September 2020 the Ukrainian government started an investigation into alleged dumping of cement by Turkish producers. Following a complaint by local producers, the Interdepartmental Commission for International Trade (ICIT) determined that: “imports were made to an extent and under conditions such that they may cause material injury to the domestic producer.” The results of the investigation remain to be seen, but Ukraine had no qualms in 2019 about slapping tariffs onto cement imports from Russia, Belarus and Moldova.

All of this leaves the Turkish cement producers relying, much as previously, on the export market to hold up sales while the domestic market recovers to 2018 levels. This is becoming riskier, given the growing number of rivals exporting cement around the world, particularly from around the Mediterranean, and with more countries like Egypt hoping to do likewise. Yet as long as favourite destinations like the US and Israel keep buying, Turkey should be okay. At home, the question remains whether the growth seen post-coronavirus measures in the spring is a sign of economic recovery or merely pent up demand. The country’s initial coronavirus response was praised internationally but signs of a second wave are present. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed in October 2020 its earlier forecast of a 5% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey in 2020. Much of the rest of the world is facing similar contractions in output or worse in 2020 but starting the year from a poor economic position is not enviable.

Iran: Cement production rose by 14.4% year-on-year to 35.6Mt in the first half of the local calendar year that started in March 2020 from 31.1Mt in the same period in the previous year. The sector exported 5.8Mt of cement with a value of US$128m to 28 countries according to the Mehr News Agency. India, Afghanistan, Russia, Iraq, Qatar, Kenya, Kuwait, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, China and Oman were among the export destinations of cement.

Uzbekistan: Cement companies produced 7.8Mt of cement in the first nine months of 2020, a rise of 2.6% year-on-year from the same period in 2019. The Trend News Agency reports that the country exported US$24.2m-worth of cement in the period, to Afghanistan, Singapore, Russia, China and Turkey. The value of its cement imports – from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Iran and Russia – exceeded this by more than double at US$870m.

Pakistan: Cement producers dispatched a record 5.74Mt in October 2020. Exports rose by 12% to 875,000t from 784,000t. The Nation newspaper has reported that the figure brings Pakistan’s total dispatches for the first four months of the 2021 financial year, from 1 July 2020 to 31 October 2020, to 19.3Mt, up by 20% from 16.1Mt in the first four months of the 2020 financial year.

The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association said that cement consumption may increase further if the government rationalises duties and taxes and withdraws excise duty.

Eurocement changed owners this week when Sberbank took control of the company’s parent organisation. Due to a ‘difficult financial situation’ the state-owned bank said it had consolidated 100% of the shares of Eurocement’s parent company GFI Investment Limited. It’s uncertain quite how difficult this situation is but in 2016 the cement producer owed the bank Euro700m. Local media agency RosBiznesConsulting (RBC) reported in September 2020 that the ‘problem borrower’ that had caused a record increase in overdue debt at Sberbank in July 2020 was none other than Eurocement. Whilst Sberbank has said so far that it does not have operational control of the group, it is seeking a strategic investor for the asset.

This is a major story given that Eurocement is Russia’s largest cement producer and it operates 19 cement plants Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. It said it produced 16.5Mt of cement domestically in 2019 but this compares to a production capacity of around 50Mt/yr suggesting a considerably low utilisation rate of just one third! The producer has embarked on a modernisation programme in recent years but many of its plants are old and use wet-process production lines.

2019 finally saw the Russian cement market turn around following decline since 2015. Unfortunately, CM Pro reports that cement production in Russia as a whole fell by 5% year-on-year to 25.1Mt in the first half of 2020. Cement shipments fell by a similar rate. This trend appears to have carried on through July and August 2020. Cement consumption has fallen fairly uniformly in most regions with the exception of the Northwestern Federal District, which has seen a modest increase. In the middle of the year, Soyuzcement - the Union of Russian Cement Producers, was expecting wildly different scenarios ranging from falls of up to 10% in a negative situation to rebound of up to 3% in a positive one. It was pinning its hopes on government support for the construction industry in various ways. With the trend to August 2020, record breaking numbers of new coronavirus cases in early November 2020 and the onset of winter, it seems unlikely that Soyuzcement’s positive thinking will come to pass.

With this in mind who might want to buy into Eurocement? No doubt various private equity firms and local producers are watching the oil price carefully while they plan their next move. Internationally, LafargeHolcim seems the obvious western multinational contender with a presence in the country. Yet it seems unlikely it would want to take the risk, following its departure from certain regions like South-East Asia in recent years and persistent rumours about other divestment targets. HeidelbergCement’s balance sheet, credit lines and appetite for risk might not yet withstand a major investment in Russia. Buzzi Unicem has actually been expanding recently with an acquisition in Brazil but whether it’s prepared to bet on another market disrupted by coronavirus is unknown. China National Building Materials Group Corporation (CNBM) was reportedly planning on becoming a shareholder of Eurocement Group in 2016 but this may have just been bluster surrounding geopolitical links between Russia and China, and general cooperation between the companies on upgrading Eurocement’s old production lines. However, Russia is the next location in China’s Belt and Road initiative so it’s not ridiculous. Whoever steps up can expect the Russian government to take a keen interest, depending on how much control Sberbank wants to offer up of Eurocement. The story continues.

India: Cement production fell by 18% year-on-year to 209Mt in the first nine months of 2020 from 255Mt in the same period in 2019. Data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that production in the third quarter of 2020 dropped by 11% year-on-year to 69Mt from 78Mt. Monthly production has consistently fallen year-on-year since March 2020 when coronavirus-related lockdown measures started.

Egypt: Cement sales rose by 10% month-on-month to 3.8Mt in September 2020, the highest figure since April 2020. However, year-on-year sales for the month fell by 12.5%, according to the Daily News Egypt newspaper. Naeem Research said that cement demand remains 15% below where the market should be due to the coronavirus pandemic. The local cement production capacity utilisation rate is estimated to be 56%.

Tajikistan: Data from the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies (MOINT) shows that Tajikistan exported 0.99Mt of cement in the first nine months of 2020. 0.56Mt of cement was exported to Uzbekistan, 0.39Mt to Afghanistan and 43,000t to Kyrgyzstan, according to Asia Plus. Local cement companies produced over 3.2Mt in the same period. The country has 16 registered cement plants with a total production capacity of 5.6Mt.

Mexico: Jaime Rocha Font, the president of the National Cement Chamber (CANACEM), says that cement sales fell by 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2020 due to low demand from construction companies and the private sector. He added that sales fell by 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, according the El Financiero newspaper. Annual sales were 43Mt in 2018 and 40Mt in 2019.