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Third quarter cement producers roundup

13 November 2013

The third quarter results are in and signs of a recovery in the construction industry are present. Generally for the European producers, volumes of cement sold in the third quarter of 2013 have improved year-on-year compared to the figures for the first nine months of 2013. Although many of these third quarter sales changes are still negative it seems like the industry has turned a corner.

Lafarge reported that cement sales fell by 4% year-on-year to 102Mt for the first nine months in 2013. In the third quarter of 2013 sales remained stable year–on-year at 36.7Mt. Holcim saw its nine month sales fall by 3% to 104Mt while its third quarter sales remained stable at 36Mt. HeidelbergCement saw its nine month sales rise by 1% to 67.7Mt while its third quarter sales rose by 4% to 25.3Mt. Italcementi saw its nine month sales fall by 6% to 32.6Mt while its third quarter sales fell by 2% to 10.8Mt.

By region some of the differences between the European-based multinational cement producers have been telling. Lafarge, for example, is still down year-on-year on cement volumes sold in North America, denting the perceived wisdom of a strong North American recovery. However, profit indicators such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have risen in that region, increasingly in the third quarter. Cemex and Holcim have done better in this region.

Notably, the unstable political situation in Egypt has also impacted the balance sheets for Lafarge and Italcementi. Lafarge reported that cement sales volumes fell by 27% for the first nine months of 2013, principally due to gas shortages, and 19% for the third quarter as the company started to substitute other fuels. Similarly, Italcementi saw overall cement and clinker sales drop by 11.2% in the nine months and 14% in the third quarter.

Meanwhile in China, Anhui Conch produced 86.2Mt for the nine months, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Overall revenues in China seem to have risen after decreases in 2012. Anhui Conch reported that its operating revenue rose by 15% to US$6.08bn for the first nine months and US$2.20bn for the third quarter of 2013. Analysts have pinned the return to profit to building in the country's eastern and southern provinces and the effects of government-led industry consolidation. Bucking this trend though, China National Building Materials (CNBM) saw its revenue rise by 37% to US$13.5bn for the first nine months of 2013 but its profit fell by 8.1% to US$542m.

Anhui Conch, Lafarge, Holcim, CNBM, Italcementi and HeidelbergCement all feature at the top of Global Cement's list of the 'Top 75 global cement companies' to be published in the December 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine. Ahead of final publication we want to know whether readers agree with the rankings. Download our list (registration required) and let us know your comments by 1 December 2013.

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UK Competition Commission talks tough

09 October 2013

Well, it seems like they were serious.

The UK Competition Commission has provisionally decided that Lafarge Tarmac should sell off one of its cement plants in the Midlands. The Commission also wants the sale to exclude buyers from any pre-existing UK cement producer. The door is open from Holcim or CRH downwards to enter the UK market. Although if the enforced Lafarge sale of Hope to Mittal Investments in 2012 is indicative, it may well be to an industry outsider.

If the move goes ahead it will open up the Midlands and north of England from four cement producers - Hope Cement, Lafarge Tarmac, Hanson and Cemex - to five. Lafarge Tarmac's cement production capacity lead of nearly 4Mt/yr will be knocked down to nearer 3Mt/yr, putting it level with Hanson Cement's production capacity.

Unsurprisingly Lafarge Tarmac is not best pleased, putting out the following in response to the commission's announcement. "The Commission's assumptions and reasoning have serious flaws and the biggest loser in this process will be the customer. There is strong evidence to demonstrate there is effective competition in the sector – with new players having recently entered the marketplace."

The Commission also wants to increase competition in the supply chain for ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS). According to the Commission findings Hanson dominates the UK GGBS market and Lafarge Tarmac controls the market for its precursor, granulated blast furnace slag (GBS). So production facilities may need to be sold by both Hanson and Lafarge Tarmac.

As an aside it's worth noting that the Belgian Competition Council recently imposed fines due to anti-competitive practices also related to GGBS. Also, elsewhere in the news this week Irish GGBS cement producer Ecocem is aligning itself with the EU carbon roadmap to 2050, partly at least because its product produces less CO2 per tonne of cement. Whoever or whatever controls the supply of GGBS in the UK has implications for how emissions are lowered in the cement sector.

Other suggested measures from the Commission such as restricting the publication of UK cement market data seem problematic. Although it may make it more difficult for UK cement producers to collude it will also make it harder for related businesses (including press and industry analysts like Global Cement) to understand what is happening at any given time.

Finally, we have to ask what the effects of the Commission's suggestions might be at the start of an uncertain recovery in the UK construction market might be. According to the Minerals Production Association cement production fell from 8.5Mt in 2011 to 8Mt in 2012, the first decrease since 2009. 2013 seems set for modest growth on 2012. The implications of Commission's plans - if they happen – could be huge.

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PCA stands by brighter US cement future

18 September 2013

US cement consumption may have disappointed some in the first quarter of 2013 but solid growth lies ahead, according to the Portland Cement Association (PCA). Just how solid that growth will be remains open to interpretation.

PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan forecast 8% growth in cement consumption at the start of 2013. Now's its been halved to just 4%. Yet he's standing by the hint of good news ahead, upping the growth from 2014 to 9.7%.

Figures from the major US cement producers present a mixed picture. The major multinational cement producers mostly suffered from the weather in early 2013. Lafarge saw its cement sales in North America drop by 23% year-on-year for the first half of 2013 to 4.4Mt from 5.7Mt in the same period of 2012. Cemex's cement sales in the US rose by 3% but no specific figures were released. Holcim's cement sales in North America fell by 7% to 5Mt from 5.4Mt. HeidelbergCement's cement sales in the North America grew by 5% to 5.7Mt from 5.4Mt.

Of the rest, Texas Industries reported a rise in cement shipments of 29% to 2.23Mt from 1.73Mt for the six months to the 31 May 2013. Titan saw sales in the US rise by 10% to US$258m.

Preliminary United States Geological Survey data for June 2013 suggests that the increase in portland and blended cement shipments in the US slowed in the first half of 2013. In 2011 32.1Mt were shipped, in 2012 37.0Mt were shipped and in 2013 37.2Mt were shipped.

Meanwhile the construction figures US Department of Commerce mostly suggested growth but not without the odd jitter. Construction spending fell slightly in June 2013. Total construction spending adjusted seasonally fell by 0.4% to US$869bn due to a fall in non-residential construction. Since then though the July 2013 figure hit US$901bn, the highest since June 2009.

Accordingly, in his forecast Sullivan pins his hopes on the residential sector in the near term. It has seen consistent growth since October 2012. However other industry commentators, like the American Institue of Architects, have focused on poor growth in non-residential construction.

Let's hope Sullivan's got it right.

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Czech-mate for Cemex?

04 September 2013

Cemex's decision to head deeper into eastern Europe as part of the Cemex-Holcim asset swap announced this week suggests some nerve. Cement production levels started to fall in the region from 2012, according to Cembureau figures, with continued problems reported so far by the multinational cement producers in 2013. Cemex seems likely to lose money from the start with its new assets in the Czech Republic.

In more detail, Cemex will acquire all of Holcim's assets in the Czech Republic, which include a 1.1Mt/yr cement plant, four aggregates quarries and 17 ready-mix plants. In return Holcim will give Cemex Euro70m and Cemex will give Holcim its assets in western Germany including one cement plant and two grinding mills that encompass a total capacity of 2.5Mt/yr, one slag granulator, 22 aggregates quarries and 79 ready-mix plants.

Cemex must believe that it can wait out the recovery of the construction sector in eastern Europe or make savings from having a more easterly spread of assets. Certainly Cemex said in its press release on the asset swap that its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) would start to rise from US$20m to US$30m from 2014.

The question for the buyers at Cemex who considered this deal is whether the construction market has bottomed out in the Czech Republic yet. According to World Bank figures, following the 2008 financial crisis Czech Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to a low of US$197bn in 2009, rose again until 2011 but then fell to US$196bn in 2012. Currently the Czech National Bank is anticipating a further fall in growth in 2013. Meanwhile, data from a third quarter 2013 Czech construction sector analysis by CEEC Research reported that a drop of at least 4.7% was expected in 2013 with a follow-on decline of 2.7% in 2014.

Possibly one deal-maker for Cemex was the prospect of combined operations with Holcim in Spain across cement, aggregates and ready-mix. Similar to the Lafarge-Tarmac joint-venture in the UK, the move offers reduced risk in a declining western European market. How the Spanish competition authorities will respond remains to be seen. Elsewhere on the continent this week the decision by the Belgian Competition Council to fine the Belgian cement sector shows an example of behaviour the Spanish authorities will want to avoid.

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Analysis: Gimmie Water - water conservation in the cement industry

03 July 2013

It's been a cold and rainy 'summer' so far in 2013 in the UK. So much so that crowds at the Glastonbury Music Festival watching the Rolling Stones this weekend were lucky they didn't get drenched during 'Jumpin' Jack Flash.' However, cement producers around the world are increasingly tackling the opposite problem as they concentrate on water conservation measures.

As we see this week, the Cement Manufacturers' Association of the Philippines (CeMAP) has started advocating the use of rainwater for cement production. According to figures put out by CeMAP, an average dry-process cement plant uses 100-200L of water per tonne of clinker produced. The Philippines uses around 3.2BnL/yr of water for its cement production capacity of 21Mt/yr, which operated at an 85% capacity utilisation rate in 2012. A simple calculation reveals a water usage rate of 179L/t of cement produced in the Philippines. Though close to the top of CeMAP's dry-process water use range, it is actually less than some of the multinational cement producers (see below).

Water conservation among multinational cement producers has become increasingly high-profile in recent years. In January 2013 Cemex announced that it had developed a methodology to standardise water measurement and management across all of the company's operations. This followed a three year partnership between Cemex and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In its 2012 Sustainability Report Cemex reported that 12% of its cement operations were in water-scarce or water-stressed locations. Its water consumption for cement was 305L/t. This compares to Holcim's water consumption for cement of 260L/t in 2012.

Other multinational cement producers have put into place similar measures. Lafarge started to assess its 'water risk' in 2011. It found that 25% of its cement production sites were located in areas of water scarcity or high water scarcity, based on 2025 projections of annual renewable water supplies per person. A follow-up with the WWF Water Risk Filter (WRF) continued the assessment, identifying 15 Lafarge cement sites as being located in 'high-risk' basins, with 10 particular sites identified in Pakistan, India, Algeria, Mexico, Jordan, China, South Africa, Iraq and Uganda.

It is worth noting here that most of these countries are currently growth areas for cement demand and so producers with plans to expand in these regions need to tread a careful line. Cement makers that use vast amounts of water in water-scarce regions will be less desirable neighbours for local populations than those that use less water. This, like consumer and regulatory pressures in developed markets, could turn into a major driving factor for improved environmental performance in developing regions. Investing in water conservation measures therefore appears to make sense socially, environmentally and (ultimately) economically.

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Carlos Gonzalez sworn in as president of Dominican Association of Cement Producers

26 June 2013

Dominican Republic: The Dominican Association of Cement Producers (Adocem) swore in Carlos Gonzalez as its president for 2013 – 2014. Gonzalez, who is also president of Cemex in the country, joins Gabriel Ballestas of Cementos Argos as treasurer and Jose Caceres of Cementos Cibao as secretary.

Published in People
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Same product, same price? Competition in the UK

22 May 2013

Back in November 2012 this column asked whether the UK cement market had become more competitive following the sale of the Hope cement plant. Broadly, we thought it had. Half a year later though and it seems that the UK Competition Commission doesn't think so. On 21 May 2013 it released provisional findings that the UK's three major cement producers were failing to compete on price with each other.

Its three main points of evidence included increases in average cement prices between 2007 and 2011, rising profitability for UK producers between 2007 and 2011 and only small changes in annual market share of sales. All of these market outcomes occurred despite a 'significant' slump in demand for cement from 2007 to 2009.

The problem here is that the Competition Commission's data refers to the UK market before it took action. In 2012 it forced the sale of Lafarge's Hope cement plant as a condition of the joint-venture between Lafarge and Tarmac. Subsequently, Lafarge and Tarmac's combined cement production capacity in the UK fell from 5.15Mt/yr to 3.85Mt/yr. However, the Competition Commission has modelled Hope Construction Materials as an effective replacement of Tarmac's previous market share in its analysis. With no major change to the status quo in the UK cement industry, it feels that competition is unlikely to improve. Hence the need for further action.

It must be emphasised that the Competition Commission did not find any evidence of explicit coordination between the producers. Professor Martin Cave, Competition Commission Deputy Chairman and Chairman of the Inquiry Group, summed it up as follows: "In a highly concentrated market where the product doesn't vary, the established producers know too much about each other's businesses and have concentrated on retaining their respective market shares rather than competing to the full."

To look at just one example, it should be noted that most of the management team of Hope Construction Materials came originally from jobs at either Lafarge or Tarmac. However in Hope's defence, who else would the new company hire except seasoned industry personnel. Naturally they would want the best people possible!

With the revival of the UK construction industry hanging in the balance the Competition Commission has a tough job ahead to ensure increased competition in the future.

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Cemex shows the alternative way in Germany

15 May 2013

Congratulations to Cemex for their work on alternative fuels in Germany. In April 2013 Cemex reached an alternative fuels substitution rate of over 80% at its German cement plants, with the Kollenbach plant beating 90%. Impressive stuff.

The German cement industry as a whole is already one of the leaders in the industry for alternative fuels use, reaching levels above 60% in 2010. This compares favourably with, for example, the UK's (high) rate of 40% in 2011 and the Cembureau average rate of 28% for its 27 European member states in 2009.

To show how fast the change in alternative fuels usage has been in Germany, in 2000 the rate was around 25%. For Cembureau members it was about 10.5% in 2000. Cemex's achievement at Kollenbach even surpasses HeidelbergCement's alternative fuels rate of 85% that it achieved across the border in 2011, at its Eerste Nederlandse Cement Industrie (ENCI) plant in the Netherlands.

Globally, Cemex seems likely to meet its 2015 target of 35% alternative fuels substitution rate. The other large multinational cement producers have similar plans in place. For example, Lafarge intends to reach 50% usage by 2020.

For more information on the German cement industry, read our feature 'Germany: A modern force in cement' in the May 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

This week we present the 100th issue of Global Cement Weekly, Global Cement's weekly cement industry news digest. To mark the occasion we would like to know what you think about what we are doing. Let us know by taking the Global Cement Reader Survey 2013. All completed submissions will be entered in a draw to win an iPad Mini.

Take the Global Cement Reader Survey 2013

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European Q1 cement round-up

08 May 2013

Once again the winter weather was bad in Europe. Once again the major European cement producers reported a fall in sales. So what has changed between the first quarters of 2012 and 2013?

Lafarge's cement sales volumes in Western Europe for the first quarter of 2013 fell by 24% year-on-year, compared to an 11% drop in 2012. Holcim's decline in volumes stabilised, compared to a 13.2% drop in 2012. HeidelbergCement's volume decline increased slightly, from a drop of 8% in 2012 to one of 10% in 2013. Cemex didn't release sales volumes figures for cement but overall net sales in its Northern Europe region fell by 13% in 2013 compared to 11% in 2012. Italcementi's cement sales volumes maintained a steady decline in both the first quarters of 2012 and 2013 at about 19%.

Even with the reduced number of working days for the quarter in 2013 taken into account, things are not looking good. Generally the results fit the prediction made by the UK Mineral Products Association (in the UK at least) that construction activity remains subdued in 2013 so far.

Profitability measures for the European divisions of the big producers, such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), reinforce the gloomy outlook, suggesting that most of the cost cutting exercises aren't having much effect on investor balance sheets quite yet. Lafarge's EBITDA in Western Europe fell by 94% to Euro5m. HeidelbergCement's loss before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased to Euro91m. Cemex's operating EBITDA fell from US$55m in 2012 to a loss of US$17m in 2013. Italcementi's EBITDA decreased to Euro12.8m.

Only Holcim reversed this trend, growing its EBITDA by 43% to Euro23.5m. The Holcim Leadership Journey appears to be working. Although the sale of a 25% stake in Cement Australia certainly helped.

Elsewhere, we have an additional story at add to last week's focus on Iraq, with the announcement that Mondi has opened an industrial bags plant in Iraq. It's based in Sulaimaniyah in northern Iraq near to the new Sinoma-Lafarge project that we reported on.

Finally, the news that the Competition Commission of India has been asked to investigate a complaint against a Chinese waste heat recovery vendor raises tensions between the world's largest two cement producers. The story echoes similar trends in the gypsum wallboard business in April 2013 where a selective anti-dumping duty was imposed on imports from China, Indonesia, Thailand and the UAE. Watch this space.

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European cement production in 2012 - HeidelbergCement, Cemex and Italcementi

13 February 2013

Three of the big multinational cement producers - HeidelbergCement, Cemex and Italcementi - have already released preliminary reports for 2012. Here's what they tell us.

Geographically, performances in the Americas and Asia propped up balance sheets. Europe, however, continued to ruin the party in 2012.

In its Western and Northern Europe section HeidelbergCement saw a 3.9% decrease in sales of cement and clinker to 21.3Mt from 22.1Mt in 2011. However this was still higher than the sales in 2010 of 19.7Mt.

Cemex's Northern Europe section witnessed a 13% drop in overall net sales to Euro3.05bn. Its Mediterranean section did worse, with a 15% drop in net sales to Euro1.08bn. Both declines were similar to the falls in cement volumes in these regions. Italcementi watched its Central Western Europe region plummet by 16.1% to 16Mt.

To demonstrate the comparative exposure to Western Europe, 25% of HeidelbergCement's sale volumes came from Western Europe and 35% of Italcementi's sale volumes came from Western Europe. Cemex hasn't released any figures for sales of cement in its preliminary results but overall in cement, aggregates and concrete, 37% of its sales came from its two European regions.

HeidelbergCement noted that demand for construction materials remained stable in Germany and Northern Europe. However it weakened in the UK and the Netherlands. By contrast Cemex noted a decrease in cement volumes for the year in Germany although it became stable by the fourth quarter. For the UK it had the same experience as HeidelbergCement, with a similar downturn in France and Poland. In its Mediterranean region Cemex recorded a whopping 40% decrease in cement volumes. Although light on detail, Italcementi pointed out a 25% drop in cement consumption in Italy and a 8% drop in France and Belgium.

In November 2012 the European Commission forecast that gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) in 2012. Broadly in line with the national situations reported above, Germany's GDP is forecast to have risen in 2012; the UK's, the Netherlands', Belgium, Italy and Spain's GDPs looks to have fallen in 2012. Curiously though, both France and Poland were forecast to have improving GDPs in 2012. HeidelbergCement and Cemex's experiences suggest that this didn't happen in the French construction industry. The (next) light at the end of the tunnel for 2013 is that EU regional GDP growth is forecast to become positive again.

With Lafarge and Holcim due to release their annual report for 2012 in late February 2012, we'll revisit this topic in a few weeks time.

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