US cement consumption may have disappointed some in the first quarter of 2013 but solid growth lies ahead, according to the Portland Cement Association (PCA). Just how solid that growth will be remains open to interpretation.
PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan forecast 8% growth in cement consumption at the start of 2013. Now's its been halved to just 4%. Yet he's standing by the hint of good news ahead, upping the growth from 2014 to 9.7%.
Figures from the major US cement producers present a mixed picture. The major multinational cement producers mostly suffered from the weather in early 2013. Lafarge saw its cement sales in North America drop by 23% year-on-year for the first half of 2013 to 4.4Mt from 5.7Mt in the same period of 2012. Cemex's cement sales in the US rose by 3% but no specific figures were released. Holcim's cement sales in North America fell by 7% to 5Mt from 5.4Mt. HeidelbergCement's cement sales in the North America grew by 5% to 5.7Mt from 5.4Mt.
Of the rest, Texas Industries reported a rise in cement shipments of 29% to 2.23Mt from 1.73Mt for the six months to the 31 May 2013. Titan saw sales in the US rise by 10% to US$258m.
Preliminary United States Geological Survey data for June 2013 suggests that the increase in portland and blended cement shipments in the US slowed in the first half of 2013. In 2011 32.1Mt were shipped, in 2012 37.0Mt were shipped and in 2013 37.2Mt were shipped.
Meanwhile the construction figures US Department of Commerce mostly suggested growth but not without the odd jitter. Construction spending fell slightly in June 2013. Total construction spending adjusted seasonally fell by 0.4% to US$869bn due to a fall in non-residential construction. Since then though the July 2013 figure hit US$901bn, the highest since June 2009.
Accordingly, in his forecast Sullivan pins his hopes on the residential sector in the near term. It has seen consistent growth since October 2012. However other industry commentators, like the American Institue of Architects, have focused on poor growth in non-residential construction.
Let's hope Sullivan's got it right.
