Displaying items by tag: Chile

Two fairly serious investments in Peru made the industry headlines this week. The first was Yura’s plans to upgrade its Arequipa cement plant at a cost of US$200m. The project will involve increasing the plant’s clinker production capacity as well as installing a new mill and a 4.3km conveyor. The second was the latest instalment in Cementos Interoceanicos’ long held ambition to build a plant. It has struck a deal with France-based Satarem to build a 1Mt/yr plant near Puno. The deal also includes Satarem buying a 30% stake in Cementos Interoceanicos and plans to construct two lime units as well.

Graph 1: Local cement sales in Peru, January 2020 to February 2021 compared to January 2019 to February 2020. Source: ASOCEM.

These projects follow a squeeze for the local industry due to coronavirus-related containment measures. Data from the Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) shows that cement sales collapsed during the lockdown to just 11,000t in April 2020 before recovering in the autumn. Total annual local sales fell by 17% year-on-year to 9.7Mt from 11.6Mt. Sales have also remained high in January and February 2021.

The experience from the larger cement producers mirror the data from ASOCEM. Cementos Pacasmayo’s sales revenue fell by 7% year-on-year to US$354m in 2020 and its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 21% to US$86.3m. Unión Andina de Cementos’ (UNACEM) income fell by 14% year-on-year to US$467m in 2020. Despite this, UNACEM managed to sign a deal to buy Cementos La Unión Chile for US$23m in December 2020. The purchase consists of a 0.3Mt/yr cement grinding plant and a 0.34Mm³/yr ready-mix concrete business with multiple concrete plants and trucks. UNACEM described Chile as its main clinker export destination and it holds concrete and precast subsidiaries in the country.

Yura’s general manager Ramón Pizá reportedly called his company’s plans a “vote of faith in Peru.” This is not an understatement considering the market shocks caused by coronavirus in 2020. The country implemented public health measures relatively early during the pandemic but still ended up with one of the worst death rates per capita in Latin America so far. As the British Medical Journal (BMJ) pointed out earlier this month, the timing was right but tragically the application of public health measures has been found wanting. Yet, the fundamentals for the Peruvian cement market are strong. Annual sales mounted from 2017 to 2019, and were showing signs of continuing this in early 2020 before the lockdown shut the market down. This growth pattern has continued so far in 2021.

Philippines: The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has issued an order amending its previous order on cement safeguards. The Manila Bulletin newspaper has reported that the amendment extends safeguard measures to 13 new countries which now exceed the necessary 3% import volume share. These are Chile, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and South Korea. Imported cement from these countries will now face a safeguard duty of US$0.2/bag. An official source quoted by the newspaper called the surge in importation from these countries "trade diversion" tactics by importers since these countries were previously exempt from the safeguard duty.

Chile: Melón’s new 0.25Mt/yr grinding plant that it is building at Punta Arenas is scheduled to start operation by the end of the first half of 2021. The unit is forecast to produce around 80,000t of cement in its 12 months, according to the La Prensa Austral newspaper. It has had an investment of US$30m and will create around 50 jobs. Spain-based Cemengal was previously reported as the supplier of the mill. It is intended to supply the Magallanes Region including Tierra del Fuego. The cement producer is also considering doubling the production capacity of the grinding plant to 0.5Mt/yr if the market supports it.

Chile: Melón has signed an electricity supply contract with Enel Generación. The contract covers the supply for its La Calera, Puerto Montt and Ventanas cement plants, and its San Bernardo aggregates quarry, until 2043, according to the La Tercera newspaper. All energy supplied under the contract will come from renewable sources. There is also the possibility of expanding the scope of the contract.

General Manager Iván Marinado said, “Our commitment to the sustainability of our operations is permanent. We have state-of-the-art technologies, we work together with our carriers in programmes to reduce logistical impact and energy efficiency, and we have a solid co-processing strategy for the use of alternative fuels (AF) and raw materials. Today we are happy to take a new step and start the use of renewable energies, as a concrete and effective example of our concern to contribute to the environmental improvement of the localities where we operate.”

Chile: The protest organisation Frente de Defensa de Islay has launched a challenge against the legality of Cbb’s planned 200,000Mt/yr Arequipa grinding plant in the Port of Matarani. The La República newspaper has reported that the organisation says that the plans would violate Islay district’s urban zoning law due to the risk of contamination.

The producer plans to complete the US$20m plant in mid-2021. It acquired the project from Inversiones Primax in 2019.

Peru: Unión Andina de Cementos’ (UNACEM) income fell by 14% year-on-year to US$467m in 2020 from US$546m in 2019. Cement despatches dropped by 16% to 4.46Mt from 5.32Mt. Its profit decreased to US$8.33m from US$96m. The cement producer attributed the reduction in sales and profits due to the country’s coronavirus-related lockdown from March to May 2020. In December 2020 it agreed to buy Chile-based Cementos La Unión Chile for US$23m. The deal includes the 0.3Mt/yr San Antonio grinding plant and a concrete plant.

Chile: Peru-based Unión Andina de Cementos (Unacem) has signed a contract with Inversiones Mel 20 Limitada and Spain-based Cementos La Unión for the acquisition of the latter’s Chilean subsidiary Cementos La Unión Chile. Diario Financiero News has reported that the company operates the 300,000t/yr San Antonio grinding plant and a concrete plant. The value of the deal is US$23m. The agreement is subject to approval by local regulators.

Chile: Cementos Bío-Bío has taken a loan worth US$37.6m from BCI-Itaú bank and Scotiabank. It took the measure ‘to ensure the company’s liquidity’ in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Cementos Bío-Bío said, “The Covid-19 pandemic brings risks due to its impact on the world and local economy. The company estimates that it will strongly affect construction, impacting cement dispatches.” It added, “The company maintains a comfortable cash position,” with liquidity of US$53.3m.

Chile: The board of directors of Grupo Hurtado Vicuña (GHV) subsidiary Cemento Polpaico, which operates the 2.3Mt/yr integrated Cerro Blanco plant in Santiago and two grinding plants, has voted in favour of a merger with fellow GHV subsidiary Cementos Bicentario (BSA), which operates three grinding plants in the country. The Diario Financiario newspaper has reported that GHV first mooted with merger with the affected parties in February 2018.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) took on direct implications for the international cement industry this week when an Italian vendor infected with the virus visited Lafarge Africa in Ogun state, Nigeria. The cement producer said that it had ‘immediately’ started contact tracing and started isolation, quarantine and disinfection protocols. This included initiating medical protocols at its Ewekoro integrated plant, although local press reported the unit’s production lines were still open. Around 100 people were thought to have had contact with the man.

Global Cement has been covering the epidemic since early February 2020 when the virus’ effect on the construction industry in China started to become evident. First, an industry event CementTech was postponed, financial analysts started forecasting negative financial consequences for producers and plants started going into coronavirus-related maintenance or suspension cycles. Then at least one plant started to dispose of clinical waste and now China National Building Material Group (CNBM) is considering how to restart operations at scale. Also, this week Hong Kong construction companies reportedly laid off 50,00 builders due to a lack of cement due to the on-going production suspension in China.

The major cement companies have identified that their first business risk from coronavirus comes from simply not having the staff to make building materials. LafargeHolcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch summed up the group’s action in its annual financial results for 2020 this week when he said, “We are taking all necessary measures to protect the health of our employees and their families.” Other major cement producers that Global Cement has contacted have placed travel restrictions for staff and reduced access to production facilities.

The next risk for cement companies comes from a drop in economic activity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a global 0.5% year-on-year fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.4%, with China and India suffering the worst declines in GDP growth at around 1%. The global figure is the worst since the -0.1% rate reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2009. The OECD blamed the disease control measures in China, as well as the direct disruption to global supply chains, weaker final demand for imported goods and services and regional declines in international tourism and business travel. This forecast is contingent on the epidemic peaking in China in the first quarter of 2020 and new cases of the virus in other countries being sporadic and contained. So far the latter does not seem to have happened and the OECD’s ‘domino’ scenario predicts a GDP reduction of 1.5%. All of this is likely to drag on construction activity and demand for cement and concrete for some time to come.

Moving to cement markets and production, demand is likely to be slowed as countries implement various levels of isolation and quarantine leading to reduced residential demand for buildings directly and as workforces are restricted. Business and infrastructure projects may follow as economies slow and governments refocus spending respectively.

The UK government, for example, is basing its coronavirus action plan on an outbreak lasting four to six months. This could potentially happen in many countries throughout 2020. This has the potential to create a rolling effect of disruption as different nations are hit. Assuming China has passed the peak of its local epidemic then its producers are likely to report reduced income in the first quarter of 2020. The effect may even be reduced somewhat due to the existing winter peak shifting measures, whereby production is shut down to reduce pollution. Elsewhere, cement companies in the northern hemisphere may see their busy summer months affected if the virus spreads. The effect on balance sheets may be visible with indebted companies and/or those with more exposure to affected areas disproportionately affected. The wildcard here is whether coronavirus transmits as easily in warmer weather as it does in the cooler winter months. In this case there may be a difference, generally speaking, between the global north and south. Exceptions to watch could be cooler southern places such as New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. Shortages, as mentioned above in Taiwan, potentially should be short term, owing to global overcapacity of cement production, as end users find supplies from elsewhere.

The cement industry is also likely to encounter disruption to its supply chains. Major construction projects in South Asia are already reporting delays as Chinese workers have failed to return following quarantine restrictions after the Chinese New Year celebrations. As other countries suffer uncontrolled outbreaks then similar travel restrictions may follow. Global Cement has yet to see any examples of materials in the cement industry supply chain being affected. On the production side, raw mineral supply tends to be local but fuels, like coal, often travel further. Fuel markets may prove erratic as larger consumers cut back and suppliers like the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) react by restricting production.

On the maintenance side cement plants need a wide array of parts such as refractories, motors, lubricants, gears, wear parts for mills, ball bearings and so forth. Some of these may have more complicated supply chain routes than they used to have 30 years ago. On the supplier side any new or upgrade plant project is vulnerable if necessary parts are delayed by a production halt, logistics delayed and/or staff are prevented from visiting work sites. Chinese suppliers’ reliance on using their own workers, for example, might well be a hindrance here until (or if) international quarantine rules are normalised. Other suppliers’ weak points in their supply chains may become exposed in turn. This would benefit suppliers with sufficiently robust chains.

Chinese reductions in NO₂ emissions in relation to the coronavirus industrial shutdown have been noted in the press. A wider global effect could well be seen too. This could potentially pose problems to CO₂ emissions trading schemes around the world as CO₂ prices fall and carbon credits abound. This might also have deleterious effects on carbon capture and storage (CCS) development if it becomes redundant due to low CO₂ pricing. In the longer-term this might undesirable, as by the time the CO₂ prices pick up again we will be that much nearer to the 2050 sustainability deadlines.

COVID-19 is a new pandemic in all but name with major secondary outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy growing fast and cases being reported in many other countries. The bad news though is that individual countries and international bodies have to decide how to balance the economic damage disease control will cause, versus the effects of letting the disease run unchecked. Yet as more information emerges on how to tackle coronavirus, the good news is that most people will experience flu-like symptoms and nothing more. Chinese action shows that it can be controlled through public health measures while a vaccine is being developed.

Until then, frequent handwashing is a ‘given’ and many people and organisations are running risk calculations on aspects of what they do. It may seem flippant but even basic human interaction such as the handshake needs to be reconsidered for the time being.