Displaying items by tag: China

Startling news from Hebei, China this week. The northerly province intends to move out its excess capacity in heavy industries, including cement, to other countries by 2023. 5Mt of cement production capacity is planned for transfer by 2017 and 30Mt is planned for transfer by 2023. The larger figure is about the same as the cement production capacity of France or Germany!

Hebei isn't the biggest cement-producing province in China but it has received attention as the authorities have cut down on 'out-dated' production capacity. The region was targeted in a programme to cut emissions from heavy industry due to its proximity to Beijing and that city's smog issues.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set a target of 60Mt/yr in cement production capacity to be cut by 2017. The region was also the site of massive cement plant demolitions in late 2013 and early 2014. 18 cement plants were demolished in December 2013 followed by 17 cement plants in February 2014 alongside the destruction of connected grinding and storage capacity. Overall an incredible 74 cement plants in the area surrounding Shijiazhuang alone were targeted for demolition by March 2014.

Following this massive spate of capacity elimination, the public announcement to actively move abroad marks a stark change to China's general cement industry strategy so far. The country's equipment suppliers like Sinoma have been taking business from European rivals like FLSmidth or KHD for some time now especially in developing markets.

In 2013, FLSmidth reported a cement market order intake of US$575m and KHD reported an order intake of US$216m. In comparison Sinoma's cement equipment and engineering services reported order intake of US$5.59bn. In its annual report for 2013 FLSmidth estimated that the global market for new kiln capacity was 50Mt. At a capacity construction price of US$150/t this suggests that Sinoma took orders for nearly three quarters of the world's required capacity for new cement kilns in 2013. Order intake covers more than just building cement plants, so this quick calculation presents only a rough impression of what's going on.

More recently Chinese cement producers have started building their own cement plants or funding them outside of China. In October 2014 State Development and Investment Corp and Anhui Conch Cement Company announced plans to fund a plant in Indonesia. In September 2014 ground breaking was held for a Chinese-funded plant in Kyrgyzstan. In June 2014, Huaxin Cement invested in Cambodia Cement. This was its second overseas investment following a project in Tajikistan in 2011.

With China's government still attempting to avoid a hard economic landing as its growth slows, moving industrial overcapacity overseas makes sense. International and national players must be worried about the potential scale of this transition. On the plus side, however, those notorious inscrutable Chinese production figures in the cement industry will be far easier to analyse in plants outside of China facing international competition. Today Hebei, tomorrow the world!

China: The board of directors of Anhui Conch have announced that Zhu Yuming has resigned as a supervisor of the company due to other work commitments. Zhu's resignation will be effective upon the appointment of a new supervisor to fill the vacancy. Anhui Conch have thanked Zhu for his 'invaluable' contributions to the company.

China: With effect from 26 May 2014, Wong Ka Hang resigned from her office as Allied Cement's company secretary. With effect from 26 May 2014 Li Chun Fung has been appointed as her replacement.

In late November 2013 Guangdong province in China announced that it will be launching its carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) in December 2013. Together with six other pilot projects in China the scheme will be the second largest carbon market in the world after the European Union (EU) when fully operational. Yet with the EU ETS floundering from excess carbon permits, with a resulting low price of permits and large cement producers such as a Lafarge reported as stockpiling permits, what are the Chinese schemes planning to do differently to avoid these pitfalls?

Overall, China has announced that it intends to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by up to 45% by 2020 compared to 2005. In Guangdong, emissions from 202 companies will be capped at 350Mt for 2013, according to the local Development and Reform Commission. As shown in an article in the December 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Guangdong province has a cement production capacity of 132.7Mt/yr, the second highest in the country after Anhui province.

From the perspective of the cement industry, Chunfang Wang from Huaxin Cement spoke about the importance of monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) at an International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) workshop that took place in Guangzhou, Guangdong in early 2013. From Wang's perspective, emission assessment standards were at a 'developmental' stage in China and 'smooth' carbon trading would depend on consistent standards being adopted everywhere. Although at the time the particulars of the Guangdong scheme were unknown, participants at the IETA event advised cooperation with scheme planners to ensure emission producers and purchasers remained part of the decision process. Sliding carbon prices in the EU ETS may have been beneficial for permit buyers but once the government planners become involved to revive the market they might lose out.

As the Economist pointed out the summer of 2013, an ETS is a cap-and-trade scheme. Since China appears to have no definite cap to carbon emissions, how can the trading work? The Chinese schemes cap carbon per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet since GDP is dependent on production, any ETS run in this way would have to include adjustments at the end of trading. This would give central planners of the scheme plenty of wiggle room to rig the scheme. Worse yet, analysts Thomson Reuters Point Carbon have pointed out that the Chinese schemes face over-allocation of permits, the same issue that sank EU carbon prices. Additionally, one of the criticisms of the Guangdong Emissions Trading Scheme (GETS) pilot scheme was that the carbon prices may have been higher than expected due to market collusion.

The Chinese ETS projects face issues over their openness. If traders don't know accurately how much carbon dioxide is being produced by industry, such as cement production, then the scheme may be undermined. Similarly, over-allocating carbon permits may make it easier for producers to meet targets but it will cause problems in the trading price of carbon. However, given that a carbon emissions cap is an artificial mechanism to encourage markets to cut emissions, should any of these concerns really matter? The main question for Chinese citizens is whether or not China can cut its overall emissions and clear the air in its smog filled mega-cities.

Specifically for cement producers, it seems likely that large producers will be able to cope with the scheme best, from having more carbon permits to sell, to rolling out unified emissions assessment protocols, to liaising better with scheme planners. In Europe smaller cement producers, like Ecocem, have criticised the EU ETS for slowing a transition to a low carbon economy by subsidising the larger producers' emissions through over-allocation. In China, with its self-declared intention to consolidate an over-producing cement industry, whatever else happens it seems likely that smaller cement producers may become lost in the haze.

Minority shareholders have bowled a googly at Holcim's attempt to simplify its business structure in India.

Or for readers unacquainted with cricket terminology, domestic institutions which hold about 9% in Ambuja Cements have been widely reported in the Indian media as having voted against a move to merge the cement producer with its parent company, Holcim India. The final results of the shareholders vote will be publicly announced on 21 November 2013. The shareholders actions follow Holcim's recent approval by the Indian Foreign Investment Promotion Board for the merger.

That this is bad news for Holcim is not in doubt given that the multinational cement producer has taken a hit in its Asia-Pacific region, particularly in India. Overall for the region its operating profit fell by 32.5% year-on-year to US$333m for the quarter to 30 September 2013.

Specifically, Ambuja Cements managed to maintain its sales volume of cement and clinker year-on-year at 4.89Mt for the third quarter. However, its net profit after tax fell by 45.4% to US$27m. It blamed the decline on subdued demand due to overall economic slowdown combined with higher input costs. Meanwhile, ACC saw its sales revenue from cement fall slightly to US$388m for the third quarter while its profit for cement before costs and tax fell by 57% year-on-year to US$22m.

As mentioned in August 2013 when this column last looked at India, the parallels to cement industry consolidation in China are telling. In China guidelines have been issued to cut overcapacity in the cement industry, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing lists of companies that should cut excess production. Alongside this, the country's leading cement producers have reported a return to profit so far in 2013. Who exactly is taking the loss from this production retraction in China, if it is happening, remains unreported and unclear.

In India, much more light has been shone upon an over-producing cement industry. Holcim and its subsidiaries are just some of the companies reporting falling profits at present. Ambuja's minor shareholders look like they have made a decision that is counter to the best interests of the Indian cement industry.

In a recent UK newspaper article, political theorist David Runciman compared the respective merits of democratic and more autocratic modes of government. Unsurprisingly for a British academic Runciman came out in favour of democracies, yet the advantages of more centralised governments were noted, such as the ability to make wide-reaching decisions faster and more comprehensively.

In light of this, comparing the Indian and Chinese cement industries in 2040 will be fascinating. Minor shareholder tussles will likely be forgotten but cement (and hopefully cricket) will be as vital then as they are now.

China: The board of directors of Anhui Conch has announced that Ji Qinying tendered his resignation as an executive director on 1 November 2013. A new executive director will be elected and appointed in due course.

Lafarge's decision to expand in Zimbabwe adds to the mix in sub-Saharan Africa.

As we discussed in Global Cement Weekly #104, Dangote and PPC (formerly Pretoria Portland Cement) may be facing off as the biggest local cement producers in the region but the influence of the European-based producers should not be dismissed too readily. Investing US$200m over the next 10 years matches PPC's similarly sized investment announced in November 2012. According to Lafarge, the spend will help maintain the cement producer's market share in the country.

The other point of note from Lafarge's Zimbabwe announcement is the emphasis on the multinational's 'Building Better Cities' campaign in the story. This is unsurprising given that that Lafarge Zimbabwe Managing Director Jonathan Shoniwa made the comments about Lafarge Zimbabwe at a branding event for the campaign. Similar events are happening around the world. However, looked at overall, the decision to place cities at the heart of its marketing makes an increasingly compelling case for a variety of markets.

Some commenters on the Global Cement LinkedIn Group discussed this very issue recently in response to a news story on Lafarge's next set of expansion plans for China. Specifically, someone asked why would Lafarge want to expand in a market suffering from overcapacity!

The Building Better Cities campaign offers one answer. As China prepares to shut down excess capacity, Lafarge's strategy to be in place once the dust settles (perhaps literally in some places) starts to make sense. As a marketing tagline 'building better cities' works well because who doesn't – from Zimbabwe to China to even France – want better cities with better transport links through price, planning, technical and aesthetic innovations.

To give a sense of the environmental zeitgeist happening in China right now, this week we carry a news story on the Chinese Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs reporting 17 Chinese cement companies for environmental misdemeanours. Elsewhere, we can see evidence of continued foreign enthusiasm for investment in the Chinese cement market from Japan's Sumitomo Osaka Cement, despite fears of overcapacity. Lafarge is saying the right things at the right time but it may not be alone in its strategy.

China: China Tianrui Group Cement has said that Yu Yagang tendered his resignation as an executive director and chief financial officer with effect from 11 May 2013 for reasons of personal development. Yu will remain as the chief accountant of Tianrui Cement, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Tianrui.

Yang Yongzheng has been appointed as an executive director, authorised representative and a member of the nomination committee. Yang will remain as the general manager of Tianrui Cement. Xu Wuxue has been appointed as an executive director, chief financial officer and a member of the remuneration committee. Xu will remain as the chief financial officer of Tianrui Cement. Wang Delong has been appointed as an executive director and deputy chief executive officer.

Last week's news that Sinoma is considering European acquisitions may seem a little odd considering that Sinoma saw its profit halve in 2012. Yet the Chinese cement equipment builder and cement producer's income (US$3.42bn) puts it level with the likes of European producers, like Italcementi (US$5.75bn) and Buzzi Unicem (US$3.58bn), and the company still made a sizeable profit (US$123m).

Now what really seems odd is the amount by which each of the major Chinese cement producers' profits fell in 2012. Each of the top five producers by capacity, including Sinoma, saw their profits decrease by 40% to 50%. CNBM 'forgot' to report its profit drop but in November 2012 it recorded a 40% fall. Anhui Conch Cement's profit fell by 45.6% to US$1.03bn. Jidong Cement hasn't released any figures but was expecting a 50% drop in late October 2012. China Resources' profit fell by 44.4% to US$300m. Compare that with the diversity of profits reported by the top five European cement producers.

As has been clearly signposted by the Chinese government, the country is overproducing cement. Just how much we can't be sure but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology declared that 220Mt/yr of 'obsolete' capacity was eliminated in 2012. The country's entire output was placed at 2.18Bt in official figures.

Outmoded capacity is being shut down and industry consolidation encouraged for the main players. Given the state-owned nature of Chinese heavy industry some level of coordination between bad results is to be expected. To give readers an idea of the challenge facing Chinese central planners, Anhui Conch added 28.3Mt/yr of additional cement production capacity in 2012. This is equivalent to the entire capacity of Nigeria or Germany!

Of interest here are China's cement export figures that the government's General Administration of Customs recently released. Exports hit a peak of 33Mt in 2007 and then declined by 68% to 11Mt in 2011. In 2012 they increased slightly to 12Mt. That's 20Mt of cement not leaving the country any more. Plus, the 'Shenzhen sea-sand in concrete scandal' can't be helping the industry's reputation abroad either.

Also of note last week, a Kyrgyzstan minister proposed restricting imports of Chinese cement to his country. Cement produced at Chinese-owned plants will be much harder to block. The next prong of the Chinese plan to tackle its cement industry is direct overseas expansion and this is what we're seeing from the likes of Sinoma and Anhui Conch. Sinoma, as mentioned above, appears to have cash to spend and in 2012 Anhui Conch began its first international project in Indonesia.

Liu Ming of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) once again stated the obvious this week: China is producing too much cement.

He made the same warning on overcapacity that has been made all year. Officials from the NDRC have recommended stricter controls on new capacity, faster mergers and acquisitions, elimination of out-dated capacity and faster industry upgrades. Unsurprisingly this is exactly the line that China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) was hawking in its 12th Five-year Plan (2011-2015) for the country's building materials industry that it released back in 2011.

So what's actually happened since last time Liu Ming played Cassandra?

Back in July 2012, at the time of the half-year financial reports, it looked like Chinese cement producers were facing profit gaps of around 50%. Now it looks worse. Major producer China National Building Material Co (CNBM) has reported a drop in net profit of 40% to US$575m for the nine months to 30 September 2012. Anhui Conch has reported a drop in net profit of 57% to US$632m. China National Materials Co Ltd (Sinoma) has reported a 76% drop in net profit to US$48.8m for the same period. Jidong Cement reported a 83% drop in net profit to US$38.6m.

In 2010 Chinese cement production was 1.87Bt. In 2011 it was 2.06Bt, according to Chinese state-released statistics. From January to September 2012, the country produced 1.59Bt of cement, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. For the full year of 2012 it is estimated that China will produce 2.8Bt/yr. However, according to the NDRC production growth have fallen to 6.7% in 2012 compared to 11.4% in 2011. Capacity is still rising whilst profits are plummeting.

At the start of 2012 the Chinese Vice Minister of Environment Protection, Zhang Lijun, announced that the ministry plans to introduce stricter rules on NOx emissions from cement plants. At the time it was reckoned that the move could wipe out a third of the industry's total net profits. Then in September 2012, industry reports suggested that the government was now going to set nitrogen oxide emissions to 300mg/m3, below the international standard of 400mg/m3. It was estimated that only about a third of producers would be able to afford the necessary upgraded equipment to meet the requirement. Then, also in September 2012, the Guangdong Emissions Trading Scheme (GETS) was launched, which might offer another way of restraining production.

In summary: profits are tumbling, production is probably slowing and new controls are as-yet unbinding. Yet, perhaps Liu Ming repeated his warning for one particular audience who can make a difference. On 8 November 2012 the Chinese Communist Party holds its 18th national congress to decide the new leadership. Producers like West China Cement are certainly hoping this shakes things up. It recently announced that it was waiting for new infrastructure projects to be approved to swallow up its growing surplus.