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Here are the major stories from the cement industry in 2015 as the year draws to a close. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Will the year of the mega-mergers pay off?
2015 showed a global cement industry that was consolidating. Amongst the multinational producers Lafarge and Holcim finished their merger and HeidelbergCement announced that it was buying Italcementi. Yet alongside this international trend the large Chinese cement producers, who represent over a quarter of the world's production capacity, have continued their own-government-favoured consolidation. The on-going boardroom scuffles at Shanshui have been a lively example of this.

Where this will leave the cement industry as a whole in 2016 is uncertain but mergers and consolidation are no 'magic bullet' for difficult market conditions. After the fanfare subsided from the launch of LafargeHolcim the first quarterly report emerged in late November 2015 reporting falling net sales, net volumes and profit markers.

BRICing it – growth stalls in Brazil, Russia, India and China
The economies of the BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have all suffered in 2015. Brazil and Russia are enduring recessions. Growth in China and India is slowing down. All of this has a knock on in their respective construction sectors.

Over in China, we report today that production capacity utilisation is estimated to be 65% and that cement companies lost US$2.63bn in the first nine months of 2015. The same source says that at least 500Mt/yr of production capacity needs to be eliminated. That represents nearly a third of Chinese total production capacity or about an eighth of global cement production capacity.

Multinationals African plans accelerate
One consequence of all these international mergers is the transformation of the situation in Africa. Suddenly LafargeHolcim has become the biggest cement producer on the continent, followed by HeidelbergCement, Dangote and PPC. Africa becomes the big hope for the multinationals as established markets continues to flounder and growth in Asian and South American markets slackens. Perversely though, should African development growth slow it may cast a poor light on the mega-mergers of 2015 in the coming years.

Dangote Cement is growing fast and it may overtake HeidlebergCement soon as the second largest cement producer in Africa. Yet it may not be plain sailing for the Nigerian company. As we report today, sources in Gambia say that Dangote's plans to open a cement plant are on hold in part to protect its domestic suppliers.

The Gambian government has denied a licence to Dangote to open a cement plant. Dangote has built its empire in recent years by forcing out cement importers from Nigeria. As it expands in other countries in Africa it may now be facing a backlash to playing the nationalist card at home as other countries too desire 'self-sufficiency' in cement production.

Iran shakes off the sanctions
In July 2015 Iran and the P5+1 countries agreed to lift trade sanctions from Iran. The implications for the local cement industry are immense given that the country was the joint-fourth largest producer in 2014, based on United States Geological Survey data. Remove the sanctions and, in theory, the local economy should boom leading to plenty of construction activity. Notably, at the launch of LafargeHolcim the new CEO Eric Olsen was asked for the new group's position on Iran. It didn't have one but this will change.

China expands along the Silk Road
China's cement industry may be suffering at home but it has been steadily expanding in Central Asia. Notably Huaxin Cement has plants in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and it has new projects in the pipeline. Business may be down at home but steady advancement abroad may offer the Chinese cement industry the lifeline it needs.

Cop out at COP21?
And finally... The 2015 Paris Climate Conference announced a diplomatic coup d'etat in December 2015. However, it apparently forgot to include any binding targets. The Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) pre-empted the decision by announced its aim to reduce CO₂ emissions by clinker producers by 20 - 25% by 2030... Provided the entire cement industry follows its lead. Cement plants burning vast swathes of dirty fossil fuels may not have to worry quite yet.

For more a more detailed look at trends in the cement industry check out the Global Cement Top 100 Report in the December 2015 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 6 January 2016. Enjoy the holidays if you have them.

China: Shareholders of China Shanshui Cement have voted to keep Chairman Zhang Bin at a meeting on 13 October 2015 amid a fight for control of the nation's seventh-largest cement maker that has been ongoing since April 2015.

China Shanshui Cement held an extraordinary general meeting during which a proposal from its largest shareholder, Tianrui International Holding Co, to get rid of Zhang was rejected after receiving a 99.9% no vote. Tianrui International, which has a 28.16% interest, has been trying to change Shanshui's management and had another failed attempt in July 2015.

Shareholder clashes may become more common in China as President Xi Jinping encourages the culling of weaker companies in industries that are grappling with overcapacity. Two of Shanshui's other shareholders, China National Building Material Co and Taiwan's Asia Cement, which combined hold 37.6%, said in September 2015 that they will make a joint conditional cash offer to acquire all the outstanding shares they don't already control. The duo reiterated on 9 October 2015 they're still considering that course of action.
China Shanshui Cement had also initially called the extraordinary general meeting to vote on the appointment of Li Liufa, a founder of China Tianrui Group Cement Co, as Chairman of China Shanshui Cement. But China Shanshui Cement said on 12 October 2015 that it hasn't yet received a notice regarding that, making the proposed appointment no longer applicable.
Shareholders voted 95.1% in support of the removal of Zhang Caikui, Zhang Bin's father, as an Executive Director at the 13 October 2015 meeting. Li Cheung Hung and Wu Xiaoyun also had 99.9% of votes cast for their removal. Li was the Joint Company Secretary of China Shanshui Cement while Wu is a professor of the University of Nankai.

The past few weeks have been notable for the high number of cement plant projects announced. Aside from further Dangote developments in Africa, (which doesn't seem to be able to go a week without announcing some 'milestone' or another,) a growing number have been in 'new' markets, especially in Central Asia.

The list from the past month or so is impressive. In east Asia Myanmar's Ait Thit Man group has announced that it will double its capacity from 5000t/day to 10,000t/day. In the south, Shree Cement wants to build another new facility in India. In west Asia, Pakistan, a country that has not seen significant cement capacity investment in the past few years, will be getting a new plant in Salt Range courtesy of China's Yantai Yantai Baoqiao Jinhong.

Turkmenistan looks set to build a 1Mt/yr plant as part of a massive government industrial stimulus package. China's Jilong Group wants to build a 0.8Mt/yr plant in Issyk Kul, Krygyzstan. Another Chinese producer, Xinjiang Tianshan will be bringing a 1.2Mt/yr plant to Georgia. Even today (Wednesday 30 September 2015), we have heard that there will be further Chinese investment, this time by Shangfeng Cement. It has announced financing for two new plants: in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Both are set to be 1.2Mt/yr facilities.

Two trends are clear from this. 1. Land-locked Central Asian and other relatively undeveloped countries elsewhere in Asia are finally coming to the cement plant party. 2. It is the Chinese producers that have the upper hand in these markets. This is based partly on cultural, political, geographical and historic links between China and these former Soviet nations. It is partly due to the lower 'face value' cost of Chinese equipment compared to European manufacturers. (The efficiency with which the lower cost equipment is installed and its running costs remain potential pitfalls, according to the Europeans.) Finally, it has a lot to do with the collapse of domestic demand for cement plants in China itself, where the economy continues to teeter on the brink.

The steady rise of the Central Asian cement sector and the increasing international activities of Chinese cement plant manufacturers have been 'on the cards' for years. To date, they have been trends waiting to happen, but 2015 looks to be the year that these factors finally combined and translated into large numbers of projects.

For Central Asian countries the prospects that come with a larger and more dynamic cement industry should enable greater independence, accelerated infrastructure development and economic growth. For the Chinese, setting up cement plants in Central Asia is a natural expansion of its multi-billion dollar activities in the African cement sector, where Sinoma recently signed a massive deal with Dangote Cement. As noted previously in this column, Africa can't continue to add capacity at the current rate forever.

For European manufacturers of cement plants, the other side of this story is not as pretty. AGAB, the large plant manufacturing group of Germany's Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (VDMA), has recently released its Status Report 2014/2015, which reports on activities from 2014. AGAB members' cement plant order volume fell by an incredible 63% in 2014 to Euro198m. This is a fall from Euro529m in 2013 and six times lower than the Euro1.2bn peak of 2008. Some of this is domestically driven but the vast majority of it is export markets.

The same report also shows that, for construction of all types of large industrial plants, Chinese producers have increased their global market share from 5% in 2006 to 17% in 2014. Over the same period, Western European producers have seen their share fall from 45% to 33%, although an increase in overall project volumes mean that these producers received roughly the same value of orders in each year. US suppliers, although not a major consideration for the cement sector, saw their share of orders fall from 22% to 20%. Japan also lost a third of its stake over the same period, falling from 15% of sales in 2006 to just 10% in 2014.

While AGAB's report anticipates increased competition from Chinese producers, it is by no means all 'doom and gloom' for Europe's traditional large plant manufacturers. It highlights the fact that Russia, the largest single market for heavy plant in 2014 and a significant consumer of European-made cement equipment, has decided against Chinese equipment in some cases. It also highlighted that the weakness of the Euro helps exports from Germany and the rest of the Eurozone and suggests that the sector should look to increase its service and consultation offering in order to build on its existing reputation for high quality equipment.

The Chinese stock market volatility this week has not been a surprise for the cement industry. The question for both the local cement industry and the wider economy is how the current economic jitters are being managed. Are we witnessing the long expected hard landing of the Chinese economy or will the state planners been able to dodge it?

Growth in the housing market and infrastructure spending has been falling. The country's cement producers have reduced their production growth as the industry consolidates. First half profits in 2015 have fallen for many Chinese cement producers including China Resources Cement and Asia Cement. Anhui Conch, one of the top three cement producers in the world, reported that its first quarter profits in 2015 fell by 31%.

Chinese cement production figures have always seemed incompatible with other data suggesting incomplete information. For example, the Global Cement Directory 2015 reported China's cement production capacity at 1.48Bnt/yr. At full capacity utilisation this would suggest a national cement consumption of 1057kg/capita, a figure that bears no resemblance to any other country on earth with the exception of petrochemical giants like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Although, to be fair to China, it's recent economic growth has been unprecedented. Poor reporting, the country's unique state regulated capitalism, language difficulties and other factors may all have contributed to confusion among western analysts.

In mid-August 2015 China devalued the Yuan in its biggest drop in 20 years. It is likely it was a strategy to boost exports to rally markets against a sliding stock market since mid June. At the time of writing the Chinese authorities have now tried cutting interest rates with a similar aim and the markets have rallied.

The effect of a devalued Yuan is relevant due to China's overcapacity in several heavy industries such as a steel and cement. Already European and North American steel bodies have cried out against the threat of fresh Chinese exports undercutting their business. Clinker exports are likely to pose less of a risk given its relative low value and high transport costs. Even so, China exported less than 15Mt in 2013, a tiny portion of its production capacity. Altering the exchange rate might well help that export figure creep up. This would be bad news for local cement producers in coastal areas of East Africa for example. Here, Chinese imports might be harder to resist than, say, southern Asian ones, due to Chinese investment in the region. Recent spats over Chinese cement imports in Kenya and Zimbabwe underline this issue.

More worrying for the wider cement industry will be the risk of Chinese cement plant manufacturers and suppliers further undercutting western firms. Eurocement signed a deal with Sinoma in November 2014 for the Chinese equipment producer to supply three 3Mt/yr production lines for US$93.3m each or just over US$30m per 1Mt of production capacity. Compare this to FLSmidth's charge to a Qatari firm of US$190m in October 2014 to build a 2.24Mt/yr production line or just over US$80m per 1Mt of production capacity. This is not a completely fair comparison due to the plants being in completely different regions, but it gives some idea of the price pressures non-Chinese equipment manufacturers face. In their defence the usual argument is that their equipment is better made. However, cement producers being able to buy even cheaper Chinese kit will not help their plight. Today we report on Dangote Cement signing yet more contracts with Sinoma to build new cement plants in Africa.

The actions of the Chinese financial authorities show that they are trying careful tweaks one-by-one to fix the situation. The real problem though is that, as China transitions from a developing nation into a developed one, broader structural changes to the general economy may be required instead of tweaks. A massively over-producing cement industry is a symptom of this and how the country copes with it is instructive to how it will succeed overall. Bold attempts to consolidate the industry have shown willingness in recent years. Unfortunately the current crisis may artificially prop up an industry that should be reducing in size.

Kenyan cement producers kicked off this week about Chinese cement imports for the Standard Gauge Railway Project in Kenya. Local producers, including ARM Cement and Lafarge, have asked the Kenya Railways Corporation to explain why the Chinese-backed project is importing cement. Project builders the China Rail & Bridge Corporation (CRBC) has imported 7000t of cement so far in 2015 according to Kenya Ports Authority data.

Project completion is planned for 2017 with a requirement of 1Mt of cement. If CRBC carried on this rate then, roughly, the project might only use 42,000t of imported cement if the import rate holds. This is less than 5% of the estimated requirement. However, cement imports increases into Kenya have stayed steady since 2012. Imports rose by 2000t from 2013 to 2014. CRBC's imports will stick out significantly in 2015.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data places Kenyan cement production at 5.8Mt in 2014, an increase of 16.3% from 5.1Mt in 2013. Production growth has been steadily building since the late 1990s with, more recently, a dip in the rate of growth in 2011 that has been 'corrected' as the growth has returned. Consumption has risen by 21.8% year-on-year to 5.2Mt in 2014 with imports also rising and exports dropping.

Imports for the railway project are duty free as ARM Cement Chief Executive Officer Pradeep Paunrana helpfully explained to Bloomberg. Producers have also recently upgraded their plants to specifically supply 52.5 grade cement to the project. Given this, it is unsurprising that local Kenyan producers, including ARM Cement and Lafarge, are complaining about this situation, especially given the increasingly pugnacious African response to foreign imports led by Dangote and companies in South Africa. Both ARM and Lafarge hold integrated plants and grinding plants in Nairobi and Mombasa. This is the route of the new railway line.

The backdrop to this is that the Chinese cement industry is struggling at home as it adjusts to lower construction rates and reduced cement production growth. Profits made by the Chinese cement industry fell by 67.6% year-on-year to US$521m for the first quarter of 2015, according to National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) statistics. At the same time the Shanghai Composite, China's principal stock market, has seen the value of its shares fall by 30% since June.

Although it is unclear where the cement imports in this particular row are coming from, informal or formal business links between large state controlled corporations such as a China's major cement producers will always be questioned by competitors outside of China for both genuine issues of competitiveness and simple attempts to claw more profit. If the Chinese cement producers are sufficiently spooked or they really start to lose money then what is to stop it asking a sister company building a large infrastructure project abroad to offer it some help? Or it might consider asking the Chinese bank providing 90% of the financing towards the US$3.8bn infrastructure project to force the Kenyan government to offer more concessions to foreign firms. Meanwhile one counter argument goes that Kenya has a growing construction market with a giant infrastructure project that may unlock the region's long-simmering low cement consumption per capita boom. The Kenyan government may face some difficult decisions ahead.

The news this week that construction companies in the Indian state of Telengana are considering cement imports from China in order to circumvent a local dispute over cement prices highlights several issues. Firstly, state politics in India can create some interesting and not altogether logical situations. Secondly, it throws the spotlight on the changing situation in China, where the cement industry will be increasingly squeezed from all sides in the coming years. Thirdly, it shows that the global cement industry is exactly that – Global.

The first reaction when hearing of Chinese imports into India might reasonably be one of shock. How can it be that it is cheaper (21% less by local estimates) to import cement from 5500km away, into the world's second-largest cement producer, than it is to send it down the road from Andhra Pradesh? Overall, India is 'swimming in' excess cement capacity, which should make it cheap across the board. Large, well-run and efficient plants, coupled to current low diesel (transport) prices, should give the industry significant advantages on the international stage. So what's going on?

Poor local and national infrastructure is the 'obvious' culprit here, but it is only part of the story. The Telengana state government has imposed extra taxes on trucks bringing cement into the state from neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. By suggesting imports from China, it is possible that the Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) wants to make a point to the state government. Spotting a local imbalance of cement supply and demand, Telengana appears, in this instance, to have acted to make a quick buck. However, it has done so to the detriment of many other stakeholders. The extra tax deprives cement producers of higher sales, robs hauliers of business and stops the public getting a fair market price for cement. This highlights that India has not only physical infrastructure to build (in terms of highways and new railways), but also a more effective political infrastructure that can put aside state-on-state one-upmanship. This is a long-term task and not straightforward when you consider India's 1.25 billion inhabitants.

Of course the fact that China has been mentioned by CREDAI as a likely source of cement is far less surprising. The largest cement producer in the world has had excess capacity for several years now (regardless of who is supplying the statistics) and takes the opportunity to export whenever it can.

However, the sands are shifting under China at the moment. The country has not been able to rely on domestic demand to keep its over-inflated cement industry in business for many years now. It is indeed highly questionable whether it ever needed a cement industry the size of the one that it built.

Indeed, economic growth is slowing for the economy as a whole and this week there were even calls for the national housing bank to reduce interest rates for lower and middle income earners, effectively propping the sector up. This comes on top of tax breaks for home-buyers, which came in at the end of March 2015. Falling house prices have bred uncertainty and a lack of demand for new constructions and hence cement. Could China's absurd cement demand bubble finally be about to pop?

Whether or not the bubble pops next week or in a couple of years, the government has long been making preparations, in the cement sector at least. It has started to aggressively remove older and inefficient capacity, encourage cement exports and helped finance new plants overseas. China is changing its emphasis from cement production to cement plant project management. This is a good move, especially as there will be fewer opportunities for conventional exports in the coming years. Neighbouring Vietnam expects to have an incredible 20Mt of cement for export at less than US$50/t in 2015, flooding China's traditional sphere of influence. At the same time, the number of countries that are self-sufficient in terms of cement production are on the rise, meaning fewer importers.

Even opportunities for Chinese firms to build cement plants outside China are likely to become fewer and further between in the future. The most promising markets in Africa already have Chinese cement plants or cement plant projects, joined this week by Zambia. Chinese cement and cement engineering firms also have interests in Central Asia, Nepal, Mongolia and elsewhere. These markets, while promising, will have nothing like the potential to consume cement like China did in the recent past. As China reduces its capacity, its growing cement plant engineering sector may well find it hard to do enough business to survive...

This week Beijing announced that it would close the last of its four largest coal-fired power plants, the China Huaneng Group Corp's 845MW power plant, in 2016. The four coal-fired plants will be replaced by four gas-fired plants with 2.6 times more electricity capacity than the former coal plants. China's policy makers are also encouraging increased use of hydroelectric power, solar and wind and is trying to restart its nuclear power programme.

In the same week, the Independent reported that Costa Rica had achieved a renewable energy milestone, having used 100% renewable energy for the preceding 75 days. The achievement was reportedly made possible by heavy rainfall, which powered four hydroelectric plants. Costa Rica has an impressive track record when it comes to energy sources. In 2014, 80% of its energy came from hydropower and 10% came from geothermal energy. In total, 94% of its energy requirements were met by renewable energy.

However, this week we also heard that Dangote is building the world's biggest oil refinery, which will process 650,000b/day. It will also be Nigeria's first oil refinery. Aliko Dangote, owner of Dangote Group, decided to up the initial design from 450,000b/day because he believes that Nigeria, as a leading producer of crude oil, should also be credited with local refining capacity. Currently, Nigeria produces crude oil, but has to buy refined products from abroad. The refinery is expected to be fully operational by 2017.

Efforts to increase renewable energy should be strongly encouraged - the benefits to the planet and its population are undeniable. However, renewable energy technology has a way to go (if ever) before it can entirely replace fossil fuel-derived energy, which makes Dangote's investment a safe bet. As renewable energy like solar and wind power is entirely reliant on nature, supplies can never be assured.

While sporadic supplies to houses and small businesses may be part of the price we eventually have to pay for a greener world, larger businesses like supermarkets and cement plants, which could lose millions (or billions) from power outages, will surely have something to say, and a lot of sway, when it comes to relying completely on renewable energy. In addition, power outages to essential services like hospitals are unthinkable when it comes to the health of our loved ones. Ultimately, the argument for relying on renewable energy may well be won by utilitarians' 'greater good' argument, but how would it feel to know that your sick child could have been saved by fossil fuel-derived energy?

China: West China Cement Ltd said that Tian Zhenjun has resigned as CEO and has been replaced by Ma Weiping, who will also take on the role of an executive director. It also said that Low Po Ling has resigned as deputy CEO. Tian and Low both confirmed they have no disagreement with the board.

For the last issue of Global Cement Weekly before the Christmas and New Year break we're following our tradition of reviewing some of the major industry news stories of the year. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Lafarge and Holcim merger
The year has been dominated by one story: the merger of the two largest European-based cement producers, Lafarge and Holcim. The implications are massive. At a stroke the new company can dispose of less profitable units, clear debts and benefit from new mega-economies of scale. As Europe emerges from the recession, LafargeHolcim will be ready. Worldwide it is a rebuff to the consolidating Chinese cement producers who are poised, if they wish, to emerge from China and dominate international markets. The process has appeared surprisingly smooth so far with considerable forward planning. This week the European Commission has approved the proposed merger.

Lafarge CEO Bruno Lafont described the deal as 'a merger of equals'. What he didn't say is that the merger will leave LafargeHolcim with no equal. However, one question remains. Once the merger is complete will the new company be profitable?

China heads abroad
State planners in Hebei Province revealed plans to move excess cement production capacity outside of China in their usual sparse style. The quiet tone of the announcement failed to match its intentions to move 30Mt of capacity abroad by 2023. It is the next step after becoming the world's biggest cement producer, capturing swathes of the equipment market and consolidating its many local producers. How Chinese cement producers will fare in the wider global market remains to be seen. Yet while its economy remains strong the gobbling up of European utilities by Chinese companies suggests that, if all else fails, money talks.

Coal for India
If you can't fire-up your kiln you can't make clinker. With Indian cement producers reporting falling profits in 2014 the squabbling over coal allocation in the country summed up some of the input cost and infrastructure problems facing the country's cement industry. The coal blocks are due to be auctioned off from January 2015. Meanwhile analysts predict that Indian cement demand is unlikely to grow until 2016.

Sub-Saharan scares and skirmishes
The creation of Lafarge Africa means that three producers are now in a skirmish in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lafarge, Dangote and PPC. All three companies are present in multiple countries and expanding fast. This week, for example, PPC announced proposed merger plans with AfriSam. Given the low cement consumption per capita in this region the benefits of getting in early are immense. Unfortunately, there are many speed bumps along this road to development. One is the on-going Ebola epidemic. Left unchecked it could cause untold economic damage.

ASEAN set to open up
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is set to drop import tariffs in 2015 as it establishes a common market. Already in preparation cement producers have started to change their strategies, thinking regionally instead of nationally. Holcim Philippines, for example, announced in February 2014 that it was considering delaying building a new plant as it analysed the situation. The region, including high-growth countries like Indonesia and Thailand, could see its cement industry go into overdrive. However, the benefits may not be uniform as countries like the Philippines may lose out.

The US, fracking and falling oil prices
Of the western economies recovering from the 2007 recession, the US cement industry has rebounded the fastest, due in part to fracking which has brought down the cost of energy. The Brent Crude price hit a low of US$60 per barrel this week and this has consequences for everybody in the cement industry as fuel procurement strategies adapt.

For starters, cement producers gain a fuel bill cut as the cost of fuels fall. Producers in Egypt who have been frenziedly converting kilns from gas to coal may suddenly find their margins improve. Low energy prices also take away financial motivation to co-process alternative fuels in cement kilns. Finally, what of the giant infrastructure projects in Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) like Saudi Arabia? Take away the petrodollars propping up these builds and cement demand may evaporate.

For more a more detailed look at trends in the cement industry check out the Global Cement Top 100 Report.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 7 January 2015. Enjoy the festive break!

China has admitted once again that its cement industry is plagued by over-capacity. State news agency Xinhua came clean this week as it reported that 103 production lines have been closed for the winter months.

The principal reason given for the winter shutdown was prevention of air pollution with resolution of overcapacity presented as a handy secondary. With long term plans in place to reduce overcapacity through industry mergers, demolitions and bans on new plants this is one more offshoot from the very public problems that smog and industrial pollution has given the Chinese government.

The policy follows a similar shutdown in China's far-western state of Xinjian that has been implemented since 1 November 2014. Xinjian is away from China's main cement production heartland in the south and east of the country. The idea here is to stagger winter production from cement kilns that use coal to avoid flue gas emissions rising when coal consumption for heating also rises. Since cement consumption by the construction industry is lower in the winter, a stoppage at this time of year should affect the cement producers less. Proposals have also been made to include Inner Mongolia and Hebei into the scheme.

The three provinces in question now - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin – represent 80Mt/yr or 6% of China's total cement production capacity from 28 cement plants, according to the Global Cement Directory 2014. This is broadly in line with the proportion of national population the three provinces hold.

Back in 2012 the National Development and Reform Commission suggested that national cement capacity utilisation was 69%. Local media in China have been reporting that currently Xinjian uses 60%. Western commentators reckon that China uses only 50% of the cement industry's total production capacity. By contrast India, the world's second biggest cement producer after China, has been lamenting this year that capacity utilisation had fallen below 70%. Worldwide, excluding China, capacity utilisation rates have been estimated to be just below 70% in 2014.

Plummeting particulate matter counts are great for Beijing's cyclists and their continued goodwill towards the government. However, the implications are bad for the producers who are affected and the associated industries. As one Chinese equipment manufacturer commented on Global Cement's LinkedIn Group, "...many small manufacturers of cement plants in China will go bankrupt." Unfortunately this too is also in line with the country's strategy to reign in its cement industry through industry consolidation. It may yet turn out sunny for the state planners... once the smog clears.