Displaying items by tag: Ukraine

Pakistan: Cement plants in North Pakistan are using 70% Afghan coal in their fuel mix, and may increase the figure to 90%. Afghan coal costs US$170 – 200/t, in line with local Pakistani coal prices. The News International has reported that fossil fuel supply disruptions ensuing from the on-going war in Ukraine have increased global coal prices. Additionally, Indonesian coal is subject to a ban on exports, while bad rains have disturbed Australian coal production. On 14 March 2022, the price of South African coal exported from Richard Bay, Umhlathuze Municipality, was US$460/t, up by 95% month-on-month from US$236/t on 10 February 2022. South Africa has previously been a major source of coal for Northern Pakistani cement production. Cement producers in the region have on average 4 – 5 months’ supply of coal in inventory.

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) says that it is reviewing its planned US$2.4bn investment programme for 2022 due to the changing conditions it faces following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ensuing cost rises. The Bangkok Post newspaper has reported that the company has recorded a rise in raw materials and energy costs across its businesses.

President and chief executive officer Roongrote Rangsiyopash said "We will delay some new investment projects, especially greenfield investments, and consider increasing more investments under merger and acquisition plans to avoid possible impact on our long-term financial management." Rangsiyopash added "Prices of cement and building materials will also gradually increase."

Russia: Germany-based HeidelbergCement has suspended ‘all further investments’ in its operations in Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. According to its website, the group supplies the Russian cement market from three local cement plants and two terminals. CEO Dominik von Achten said that a ‘large part’ of HeidelbergCement’s Russian production capacity is presently in winter shutdown.

Von Achten acknowledged the company’s responsibility towards its employees in the country, who he said have no part in the apparent Russian aggression and on-going war crimes in Ukraine. He said “We are in constant exchange with our local workforce to protect them and are closely monitoring the situation on a day-by-day basis.”

Türkçimento’s Volkan Bozay took to the airwaves last week to raise the issues that the war in Ukraine is causing for Turkey-based cement producers. The head of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association explained, to the local Bloomberg HT channel, that the dramatic jump in the price of Newcastle Coal posed a serious threat to the sector. The price jumped nearly US$100/t in a single day in early March 2022. Bozay said that the cost of cement from a plant using imported coal would consequently rise by around US$15/t. He added that the association’s members had an average of 15 – 20 days of coal stocks.

Graph 1: Price of coal, March 2020 – March 2021. Source: Trading Economics.

In a separate press release Türkçimento revealed that Turkey, as a whole, imported approximately US$1.5bn of coal from Russia in 2021. The cement industry imported about 5Mt of coal in 2021, from all sources, although the majority of this came from Russia. Coal shipments from Russia since the start of the war were reported as ‘very limited or even not possible.’ It was further explained that each US$10/t increase in the price of coal put up plant production costs by US$1.5/t of cement.

Naturally Bozay’s appearance on a television news show carried a lobbying aspect. He called for government import standards – such as the sulphur ratio, lower heating values and volatile matter limits - to be relaxed to allow coal to be imported more freely from sources such as Colombia, Indonesia and South Africa. There was also a push to let in more alternative fuels such as tyres and waste-derived fuels. The bit that Bozay didn’t mention though was how many of his members had long term coal supply contracts in place to cushion them, from short term price inflation at least. Yet, if coal shipments from Russia have simply stopped, then the price is irrelevant. A cement kiln configured to run on coal stops when it uses up its stocks.

Turkey was the world’s fifth largest cement producer in 2021 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Türkçimento data shows that in 2020 it exported 145,000t of cement to Russia by sea. Overall it exported 16.3Mt of cement and 13.5Mt of clinker. The US, Israel, Syria, Haiti and Libya were the top destinations for cement. Notably, Ukraine was the sixth largest recipients of cement, with 752,000t imported, although anti-dumping legislation introduced in mid-2021 looked set to reduce it until the war started. Ghana, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Cameroon and Belgium were the principal recipients of clinker. Cumulative cement exports for the year to October 2021 were up by 3% year-on-year compared to the first 10 months of 2020. Clinker exports were down by 27% though. Overall domestic production and sales in Turkey rose by 9.5%, suggested an estimated production figure of 79Mt for 2021.

Other fallout in the cement sector from the war in Ukraine this week included Ireland-based CRH’s decision to quit the Russian market. It entered the region in 1998 through a subsidiary based in Finland and was operating seven ready-mixed concrete plants via its LujaBetomix joint venture. CRH says that all operations in Russia have now stopped. In 2021 it sold its lime business in Russia, Fels Izvest, to Russia-based Bonolit. Although selling concrete plants is not trivial, these are far cheaper assets than clinker production lines. Germany-based HeidelbergCement, Italy-based Buzzi Unicem and Switzerland-based Holcim each operate at least one integrated cement plant in Russia. So far these companies have publicly expressed dismay at the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine and made donations to the Red Cross.

Graph 2: European Union Emission Trading Scheme price, 2020 – March 2022. Source: Sandbag.

Finally, one more surprise this week has been a crash in the European Union (EU) Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon price from a high of Euro96/t in early February 2022 to Euro58/t on 7 March 2022. As other commentators have stated, normally the carbon price would be expected to follow the energy market, but this hasn’t happened. Instead investors have pulled out, possibly to maintain liquidity for other markets.

With the US set to ban Russian oil, gas and coal imports and phase-outs to varying degrees promised by the UK and the EU in 2022, we can expect more turbulence from energy markets in the coming days. As the Turkish example above shows, all of this can... and will... have effects on cement production.

Germany: Schmersal Group has asked its Russian sales partner to suspend the supply of safety switchgear and systems. It said that the action was not easy for the company as it meant stopping a ‘noticeable’ sales volume. Managing director Philip Schmersal said, "We do not want to contribute to the economy and production of a country that disregards the sovereignty of another country and brings great suffering to its people.”

Russia/Ukraine: CRH says that it has withdrawn from the Russian building materials market. It operated seven ready-mix concrete batching plants and a concrete panel plant in St Petersburg through its subsidiaries LujaBetomix and Rudus. CEO Albert Manifold estimated the group’s investments in the businesses to be Euro1.5 – 2m. RTÉ News has reported that Manifold called the operations ‘infinitesimally small,’ and said that a Russian withdrawal had previously been on the group’s radar anyway.

CRH says that it has suspended its Ukrainian operations, which reportedly generated Euro281m in sales in 2021, and continues to support its 820 employees in the country in every way it can.

Cement markets have mostly recovered following the shock emergence of coronavirus in 2020. Most of the producers that have released their results so far for 2021 have reported strong boosts to sales revenue and racing earnings as something more like normality resumed. The following roundup covers a selective group of cement companies around the world.

The recovery in 2021 has made the outliers in the companies covered here noteworthy. UltraTech Cement, Semen Indonesia and Dangote Cement are all large regional companies with dominant positions domestically and varying degrees of international spread. As can be seen in Graph 1, UltraTech Cement and Dangote Cement both reported very large increases in sales, over 20% year-on-year. By contrast, Semen Indonesia sales fell very slightly.

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected cement producers in 2020 and 2021. Source: Company reports. Note: Figures calculated for UltraTech Cement.

One reason for UltraTech Cement and Dangote Cement’s success can be seen in Graph 2 (below). Both companies managed to sell more cement in 2021. Semen Indonesia did not due to Indonesia’s production overcapacity and new competitors. It also blamed a significant rises in coal prices for a 9% drop in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

UltraTech Cement has been wary of successive waves of coronavirus throughout its 2022 financial year, but generally the Indian regional markets have recovered and government-backed rural housing and infrastructure spending have supported growth. It did note rising coal prices earlier in the year, but these were reported to have somewhat softened during the quarter to 31 December 2021. It is worth noting that the ongoing war in Ukraine is affecting energy markets but more on this at the end of this article. Dangote Cement’s performance was slowed somewhat by the start of coronavirus but it has since resumed its turbo-charged trajectory with volumes, revenue and earnings growth all above 10% in 2021. Mostly this performance is supported by the Nigerian market but the company is doing well internationally too.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected cement producers in 2019 and 2020. Source: Company reports. Note: Figures calculated for UltraTech Cement.

Holcim and HeidelbergCement’s increase in sales revenue in 2021 are actually fairly similar on a like-for-like basis, both with around 10%. The former’s sales volumes were up across cement, ready-mixed concrete and aggregates in each of its regions around the world, as were sales revenue. Holcim’s big move in 2021 has been the expansion of its Solutions & Products segment with the acquisition of Firestone in April 2021. Now this has continued with the completion of the Malarkey Roofing Products purchase on 1 March 2022, a few days after it released its 2021 results. Chief executive officer Jan Jenisch described the move towards lightweight building materials as generating, “further double-digit growth engines for the company.” As an aside, it was fascinating to see CRH leave the building envelope business this week, mostly based in the US, with an agreement to sell up its division for US$3.8bn to private equity. The business CRH is divesting sells architectural glass, storefront systems, architectural glazing systems and related hardware to customers primarily in North America. CRH is clearly pursuing a different business strategy to Holcim.

HeidelbergCement has also reported a strong year in 2021 albeit without the Holcim razzle-dazzle of barging into new market areas. It noted significant increases in energy prices and pandemic‐related lockdowns in some key markets in Asia. It described a very slight cement sales volume decline in Africa and the Middle East and a drop in earnings in Asia. Its trump cards are its carbon capture projects coming down the pipeline. It’s keen to remind investors about this with the unspoken implication that it might save the company money in the future when carbon taxes bite further.

Both Cemex and Buzzi Unicem followed the growth pattern seen in sales and earnings by the other larger multinational producers covered above. Central and South American markets really took off for Cemex in 2021, starting with its home market in Mexico. However, growth was present, although slower, in both its largest markets in the US and its Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia region. Notably cement volumes in the Philippines grew by 7% and that’s even with the devastation caused by typhoons at the end of the year taken into account. Similarly, Buzzi Unicem performed well in 2021 due to growth in Italy, the US and Eastern Europe compensating for a small sales decline in Germany. As mentioned in Update on Ukraine, February 2022 Buzzi Unicem has particular exposure to the war in Ukraine as it operates two cement plants in Ukraine and two units in Russia but this is a problem for the 2022 financial year.

To finish on Ukraine, first and foremost, a human tragedy is unfolding. Yet the war also presents many economic challenges to financial markets through sanctions and counter-actions. A recession in Russia looks likely as do energy price surges in the US and Europe leading to further inflation and, perhaps, recessions too. All this potentially lies ahead. For now, the dilemma for US and European-based cement companies and suppliers with operations in Russia is reputational. Should they continue to do business in Russia as public opinion hardens and companies like BP, Shell, Equinor, HSBC and AerCap head for the exit? The Russian government has blocked foreign companies and individuals from selling shares locally but pressure looks set to intensify for such companies to do something.

Mexico: The Mexican Ready-Mix Concrete Industry Association (AMIC) says that European natural gas shortages and disruptions to the supply of oil, chemicals and other goods as a result of the conflict in Ukraine may cause a rise in the cost of global cement production.

AMIC president Ana Laura Burciaga said "Having a conflict that delays the arrival of these products can make them more expensive because they would have to be obtained from more expensive sources due to shortages.” Burciaga continued "The area where the conflict is taking place was a major supplier of gas and we are concerned that this will have repercussions, especially in terms of a price increase when we have just suffered a very significant one of a magnitude we had not seen for many years."

Ukraine/Ireland: CRH says that it is monitoring the on-going Ukrainian invasion crisis as it impacts its employees, assets and the continuity of its operations in the country. The Irish Times newspaper has reported that the company has developed contingency plans, which it will deploy as necessary.

CRH’s Cemark subsidiary employs 800 people in Ukraine, where it has operated since 1999.

Austria: RHI Magnesita says that customer demand and sales volumes to above pre-pandemic levels have driven revenue growth in 2021. It added that, at the same time, unprecedented supply chain disruptions resulted in higher freight, energy and purchased raw materials costs. Its adjusted revenue grew by 12.9% year-on-year to Euro2.55bn in 2021 from Euro2.26bn in 2020. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 7.7% to Euro280m from Euro260m.

Stefan Borgas, chief executive officer of RHI Magnesita, said, “This has been a strong year of progress for RHI Magnesita in challenging conditions. Customer demand recovered much faster than was anticipated, creating an unprecedented strain on global supply chains and significant increases in costs and logistics lead times. Despite logistics difficulties and market volatility we have progressed the strategic investments which will deliver long term growth and margin improvement. We enter 2022 with restored margins and ready to build further on our sustainability and technology leadership position in the global refractory industry.”

The group said that merger and acquisition progress has been accelerated in the reporting year with an agreement to buy Turkey-based Sormas Refrakter and the establishment of a new joint venture in Chongqing, China to widen the product range for cement customers in the region.

Finally, RHI Magnesita reported that it has 63 staff based in Russia and Ukraine but no refractory production sites. Approximately 3.4% of group revenues were from the Commonwealth of Independent States region in 2021. It said that this business would be impacted by economic sanctions but that the main financial effects for the group as a whole were expected from higher energy costs.