Displaying items by tag: Ukraine

This week’s Virtual Global CemPower Seminar included an assessment on how interventions in European power markets might affect efforts to decarbonise industry. The presentation by Thekla von Bülow of Aurora Energy Research outlined how different countries in the European Union (EU) were implementing the forthcoming electricity price cap on ‘inframarginal’ producers to 180Euro/MWh. Each of these different proposals will entail differing levels of structural change to the wholesale energy market. For example, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) has recommended establishing a series of frameworks including a stronger focus on Contracts for Difference (CfD) schemes to promote renewable energy sources.

These changes are a consequence of the EU’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices surged and then pushed up other energy prices in turn to record levels. As this column covered in September 2022, the price of electricity shot up in the summer of 2022 whilst at the same time Russian gas imports ceased. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, called for urgent action to be taken to support cement production due to large increases in the cost of electricity. For example, in its latest overview of the German cement industry, the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) said that the sector has an electrical consumption of 30TWh/yr. Clearly energy policy is of great interest to the industry.

Since then, in late September 2022, Heidelberg Materials’ chief executive officer Dominik von Achten told Reuters that his company was preparing to shift production at its Germany-based plants to times and days when power prices are lower including at the weekend. However, this was dependent on negotiations with the unions. Von Achten also warned of plant closures being a possibility. Then, in November 2022, it emerged that Zementwerk Lübeck’s grinding plant in northern Germany had reportedly been only operating its grinding plant at night and at the weekend due to high electricity prices. Also in November 2022 European energy news provider Energate Messenger reported that Heidelberg Materials was preparing its cement plants in Germany with emergency backup power to keep critical services running in the case of electricity power cuts. One view from the outside came from equipment supplier FLSmidth’s third quarter results where it noted it had, “...started to see the first cases of budget constraints imposed by customers to counter the increasing energy cost. A high utilisation is still driving service activity in Europe, but some customers have put large capital investments on stand-by and we have experienced a slowdown in decision-making processes.” On the other hand it also pointed out that this trend is driving sales of products that helped reduce energy usage and/or switch to alternative fuels.

On the financial side, Holcim reiterated in its half-year report that, on the country, level the group uses a mixture of fixed price contracts, long-term power purchase agreements, on-site power generation projects and increased consumption of renewable energy at competitive prices to reduce the volatility from its energy bills. Both Cemex and Heidelberg Materials said similar things in their third quarter results conference calls. Cemex said that nearly 70% of its electricity requirements in Europe were fixed in 2022 with nearly 30% fixed for 2023. It went on to reveal that around 20% of its total costs for cement production in Europe derived from its electricity bill. Interestingly, it added that a higher proportion of its electricity costs in Germany were fixed than elsewhere in Europe, due to the use of a waste-to-electricity system owned by a third party that is fed with refuse-derived fuel (RDF), but that it was more exposed to floating fuel rates in Spain. Heidelberg Materials added that it supported energy price caps in both Germany and the EU whether they affected it directly or not.

So far it has been a mild start to winter in Europe. This may be about to change with colder weather forecast for December 2022. This will stress test the EU’s energy saving preparations and in turn it could force the plans of industrial users, such as the cement sector, to change. Some of the cement producers have commented on the financial implications of rising fuel costs but they have been quieter publicly about how they might react if domestic consumers are prioritised. Plant shutdowns throughout cold snaps are the obvious concern but it is unclear how likely this is yet. The variety of energy policies between fellow member states, their own supply situations and the differences between cement plants even in the same country suggest considerable variation in what might happen. If large numbers of cement plants do end shutting throughout any colder periods, then one observation is that it will look similar to winter peak shifting (i.e. closure) of plants in China. The more immediate worry in this scenario though is whether these plants actually reopen again.

The proceedings pack from the Virtual Global CemPower Seminar is available to buy now

Italy: Buzzi Unicem’s net sales rose by 18% year-on-year to Euro3.00bn in the first nine months of 2022 from Euro2.54bn in the same period in 2021. Its cement sales volumes fell by 6% to 21.9Mt from 23.4Mt. Its ready-mixed concrete sales volumes dropped by 3% to 8.80Mm³ from 9.05Mm³. The group reported a general slowdown in demand during the third quarter of 2022, particularly in Italy, Eastern Europe and Ukraine. This trend was weaker in the US and sales volumes improved in Central Europe. Buzzi Unicem added that it increased its prices in all regions in the third quarter.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Cembureau called for urgent action on electricity prices from European governments this week to protect cement plants. Its maths was crushingly simple. One tonne of cement takes around 110kWh of electricity to produce. Electricity prices started to top Euro700mWh in some European Union (EU) countries at the end of August 2022. The association says that this represents added costs of Euro70/t of cement and a tripling of the total cost of production. This kind of sudden extra cost to cement production could lead to the widespread closure of cement plants and lead to chaos in the construction supply chain.

Previously, Cembureau reported in 2020 that electricity accounts for about 12% of a cement plant’s energy mix. In a dry production process plant 43% of this is used for cement grinding, 25% goes into raw material preparation, another 25% on clinker production and the final portion is typically used for raw material extraction, fuel grinding and for packing and loading. However, the cost of the electricity can make a big difference to the overall energy bill for a cement plant. When a report by the European Commission’s (EC) Joint Research Centre (JRC) modelled a reference northern European cement plant with a production capacity of 1.0Mt/yr back in 2016, it concluded that the EU cement industry was spending around half of its energy costs on electricity compared to smaller ratios at plants in China, Egypt, Algeria and... Ukraine. That last country in the list is poignant given its unwitting participation in the current energy crisis. One other thing to note is that cement producers, as large scale users, may well be paying less than the wholesale prices Cembureau appears to be quoting.

The timing of Cembureau’s proclamation is pertinent because the EU and individual states have mostly been waiting until the autumn before revealing their energy support plans. However, the dilemma for Cembureau, and other industry lobbying groups, is how to protect their sectors whilst domestic consumers are threatened. The aftermath of the coronavirus lockdowns has shown what can happen when production of key commodities stops: supply chain disruption, shortages and price rises. One ironic shortage in the UK during the lockdown periods was that of CO₂, as high gas prices forced the main producer to shut down, leading to unexpected knock-on problems along the supply chain in areas such as food production. The same situation is reportedly at risk of happening again now too.

Cembureau’s wider solution is to link domestic and industrial consumers of electricity. So, some of its suggestions to policymakers are to use all available means of power generation, implement emergency measures such as price caps immediately, change the rules of the electricity market more generally to prevent future price shocks and to promote large scale renewable power source development. These are all things that could help both individual and industrial users of electricity.

Compare and contrast, then, with the MPA’s (Mineral Products Association) approach to the same problem in the UK. Its strategy instead has been to ask the UK government for tax cuts and freezes and to hurry along the forthcoming policy on support for Energy Intensive Industries. That’s not to say that Cembureau’s suggestions don’t also include some sector specific requests. It has asked that the EU temporary state aid framework adopted in late March 2022 should allow all energy intensive industries to have access to state aid covering 70 - 80% of eligible costs. It has also encouraged the wider use of alternative fuels, although it doesn’t link the reason why beyond reducing imports of fossil fuels. Lastly, it bangs the drum for its recent preoccupation, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, this time adding electro-intensity as a main criterion for eligibility for compensation under EU emission trading scheme (ETS) indirect state aid guidelines.

Government support packages for the energy crisis are starting to be announced in European countries but the question for everyone is whether they and other actions will be enough. One problem for the cement industry will be simply staying on the radar of policy makers facing a crisis looming over their citizens. Yet if there is not enough energy to go around then rationing of some kind will be inevitable and heavy industrial users will be the first obvious targets to be told to cut back. Some months later building material supply shortages will hit. One national cement sector to watch in the coming months may be the Spanish one as it has long warned of the risks of high electricity prices.

Senegal: Data from the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD) indicates that cement exports fell by 34% month-on-month in June 2022, although local sales rose by 4%. Overall cement production fell by 2% as manufacturers battle the economic impacts of the war in Ukraine.

Philippines: Eagle Cement’s sales rose by 24% year-on-year to US$246m in the first half of its 2023 financial year from US$199m a year earlier. Its income was US$53.4m, down by 20% year-on-year from US$66.6m. Eagle Cement attributed the decline to cost impacts resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and bottlenecks in global supply chains. Its operating expenses were US$26.1m, up by 35% year-on-year.

Italy: Buzzi Unicem recorded a net profit of Euro88.7m in the first half of 2022, down by 58% year-on-year from Euro210m in the first half of 2021. The group said that its recurring profitability worsened across its markets, with the exception of Russia. It also noted ‘substantial stability’ in the Czech Republic. Its consolidated sales, including those of its Brazilian and Mexican businesses, were US$2.41bn, up by 18% from US$2.05bn.

The group recorded cement sales volumes of 14.2Mt, down by 4.1% from 14.8Mt. Volumes fell by 27% in Eastern Europe and by 28% in Italy, but rose by 27% in Central Europe and by 8% in the US. Excluding Russia, the producer’s fuel costs per tonne of cement rose by 8.8% year-on-year to approximately Euro8.80, and its total energy costs rose by 20% year-on-year to Euro234m.

It implemented continued price rises across all markets except Mexico during the half, with the sharpest rises recorded in Italy and Ukraine.

A disturbing story has emerged this week concerning attempts by an unknown party to seize control of Holcim Russia. The situation marks a dangerous new phase for multinational companies operating in Russia. This includes a number of building materials producers and their suppliers.

The public side of events started on 26 July 2022 when Holcim Russia announced on its website that a legal case concerning an unpaid loan against it had been initiated at a court in Chechnya and that someone was also trying to change ownership documents with the Federal Tax Service. This was then followed by an interview by Forbes Russia with the new alleged owner of the construction materials company explaining how he had made the so-called acquisition. Holcim Russia immediately hit back hard with multiple and well researched reasons why this couldn’t be so. These included the supposed private investor’s apparent lack of a business past, a long criminal history, psychiatric records, social media accounts of an individual of seemingly modest means and so on. Kommersant FM has since reported that the court in Chechnya took the side of the asset raider but that both the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Ministry of Industry and Trade are now investigating the case.

Taking loans from a mystery businessman with no apparent past does not look credible for a multinational like Holcim and its subsidiaries. This particular method was also flagged up by one of the legal sources quoted by Kommersant FM as a recognisable corporate scam in Russia dating back to the 2000s. What is more certain is that Holcim reported that it had a 100% interest in Holcim Russia in its annual report for 2021. It then said it was going to leave the Russian market in late March 2022 following the start of the war in Ukraine a month earlier. By May 2022 it said that it had attracted the interest of 30 possible buyers. Only this week Holcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch confirmed in the company’s second quarter conference call that divestment discussions were 'active' and ongoing with a 'solution' expected in the coming months. The timing of Holcim Russia’s sudden difficulties is therefore noteworthy given that a potential buyer has not yet been publicly announced.

Whoever has tried their luck at taking over Holcim Russia has done so at a time when anti-Western sentiment is high in Russia. For example, the government attempted to pass a new law seizing the assets of Western companies trying to leave the country in July 2022. Any intervention by the authorities is likely to take some of this into account and they may be wary of helping an organisation with perceived European links. Naturally, the nationalist card was played up in the interview with Forbes Russia. For its part, Holcim Russia has commented that the ongoing 'illegal action' might lead to production delays for building materials supporting key housing and infrastructure projects. Whatever is going on it must be a tense time for Holcim Russia and its 1500 employees. We’ll leave the last word to Holcim Russia’s general manager Maxim Goncharov who has described the situation as the “theatre of the absurd.” He is not wrong.

Vietnam: High costs have resulted in the cancellation of four planned new integrated cement lines by a local cement producer. Viet Nam News has reported that the producer in question presently faces costs of US$59.9 - 64.1/t cement, with a net loss of US$8.55 - 10.30/t. Coal prices are US$237/t, more than triple those at the start of 2022 of US$85.5/t. Gypsum and diesel prices rose by 50% over the first half of 2022. The producer reportedly attributed the coal price rise to the effects of the Covid-19 conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

India: UltraTech Cement has imported a 157,000t shipment of coal from Russia for US$25.8m, which it paid in Chinese Yuan. ET NOW News has reported that this is the first instance of an Indian entity using the currency in international trade. The deal has a value of US$164/t, 50% below average South African coal prices and 20% below average Australian cement prices in India. The deal reportedly signals the possible end of Indian coal prince inflation in the medium – long term.