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China Daily ran a story this week entitled “Steel and cement don't reflect China's growth story any more.” The piece reassured English-language readers that the country’s economy is moving on and that recent falling production of cement simply reflected the “profound changes China's economic structure is undergoing.” Profound is the right word here given that China is home to the world’s largest cement sector.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 - 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. This compares to 7% and 15% falls in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 respectively. On an annual cumulative rolling basis, output previously hit a low of 2.22Bnt in March 2020 as the initial coronavirus outbreak was brought under control. Output then surged to a high of 2.53Bnt/yr in April 2021 before it started to fall in the autumn of 2021. On a monthly basis, output volumes fell by 5.6% year-on-year to 187Mt in March 2022.

As covered in last week’s column (GCW 555), the financial results from the larger Chinese cement producers have also suffered in the first quarter of 2022. CNBM’s total operating revenue fell by 1% year-on-year to US$7.29bn in the first quarter of 2022. Anhui Conch’s revenue fell by 26% to US$3.85bn and China Resources Cement’s (CRC) turnover fell by 18% to US$889m. Of these three only CRC has released cement sales volumes. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 34% and 12% respectively.

In its own analysis, the China Cement Association (CCA) has summarised the current situation as one of rising costs, falling demand and declining benefits. The latest large-scale coronavirus lockdowns and a poor real estate market have hit demand. Rising energy and freight prices have increased the cost of cement. Together, higher costs and falling demand have hit the profits of the cement producers. CNBM’s net profit, for example, fell by 9% to US$420m. Regionally, the CCA observed that the losses of the northern-based producers had increased and that the profits of the southern producers had started to fall sharply also. Another interesting point it made was that the year-on-year decline in March 2022 was slower than compared to the first quarter as a whole and that high levels of inventory may have made March 2022 look worse than it actually was. The association is now pinning its hopes upon demand and prices picking up again later in the second quarter after the current quarantine controls are eased and the government curbs high coal prices.

The CCA’s take doesn’t seem unreasonable, although the first quarter of 2022 was previously deemed to be a continuation of the trouble the Chinese cement sector experienced in the autumn of 2021. Possibly the first quarter has turned out worse than expected but the monthly output in March 2022 has started to look like it might be a tail-off from the worst. The period to watch remains the second quarter of 2022. Looking more widely, energy shocks from the war in Ukraine couldn’t be easily predicted but coal prices were already becoming a concern in the autumn of 2021. China’s renewed zero-Covid policy meanwhile is starting to look unpalatable both economically and socially. Throw in a continued slowdown of the real estate sector and China Daily’s profound pronouncement about the future of cement may prove accurate.

Nigeria: Domestic cement sales totalled US$3.46bn in value in the first nine months of 2021, up by 30% year-on-year from US$2.66bn in the corresponding period of 2020. The Punch newspaper has reported that market research company Atlas Portfolios Limited attributed the growth to an increase in federal and state governments’ infrastructure spending. The company added that increased homebuilding following the end of the Covid-19 lockdown generated further demand growth.

India: Dalmia Bharat’s consolidated cement sales in the first half of the 2022 financial year were 5.1Mt, up by 6.2% year-on-year from 4.8Mt in the first half of the 2021 financial year. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew by 1.6% to US$178m from US$176m. The company recorded a net profit of US$67.1m during the period, up by 19% from US$56.3m. During the second quarter of the year, which ended on 30 September 2021, Dalmia Bharat commissioned a second line at its Cuttack, Odisha, cement plant and began trial production at its newly acquired Murli cement plant in Maharashtra.

The Orissa Diary newspaper has reported that managing director Puneet Dalmia said "We are pleased with our performance during the quarter. In spite of unprecedented costs related headwinds across all regions, our razor sharp focus on operational efficiencies and execution has helped us contain our costs and deliver an industry-leading performance. We have made considerable progress on our immediate priorities, including expanding our capacity, driving organisational transformation, reinforcing our brand and redefining our corporate governance framework. Looking ahead, we remain focused on further strengthening our momentum to drive sustainable and profitable growth and generate top-tier returns for our stakeholders.” He continued “As India's economy continues to rebound from the lows of last year, we expect the demand and pricing environment for the sector to improve for the rest of the 2022 financial year."

India: Rating agency ICRA has forecast that Indian cement production will rise by 12% year-on-year to 332Mt in 2022. It said that pent-up pre-Covid-19 lockdown demand, rural housing demand and a pickup in infrastructure activity would drive the rise. ICRA predicted that demand would rise by a further 8% year-on-year to 358Mt.

In the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, domestic rose by 44% year-on-year and by 2% compared to the first quarter of the 2020 financial year to 142Mt. ICRA estimated that the top 12 Indian cement producers will record their highest ever average operating profit per tonne of cementitious material in the 2022 financial year. It said that this is likely to occur due to an increase in net sales realisation and cost optimisation measures.

India: Cement companies produced 82Mt of cement in the three-month period ending on 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, corresponding to growth of 54% year-on-year. Production in the quarter declined by 12% quarter-on-quarter, due to the proliferation of new state Covid-19 lockdowns from April 2021 onwards. The Hitavada newspaper has reported that ratings agency ICRA forecast that full-year production will rise by 12% in the 2022 financial year, on account of pent-up demand, growing rural housing demand and a pick-up in infrastructure activity. It nonetheless estimated that production will remain 2% below pre-Covid-19 outbreak 2020 financial year levels, with continuing high costs due to rising fuel prices. In the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, coal prices more than doubled and petcoke prices rose by 98% year-on-year.

Jamaica: Caribbean Cement says that it will export an additional 200,000t/yr of cement after it completes the 40% capacity expansion of its 1.0Mt/yr Rockfort cement plant to 1.4Mt/yr. In 2020, the producer exported 1580t of cement, all to North America, at a total value of US$156,000.

CBR News has reported that general manager Yago Castro said “We believe the right way is to invest in local manufacturing and make it bigger, solid and more powerful. This is why we’ve been increasing our production capacity over the past three to four years. Our team is always working on improving the supply to the market, quality of our products and service.”

The Jamaica Observer newspaper reported on 5 September 2021 that regular three-day lockdowns begun in Jamaica in August 2021 to stem the spread of Covid-19 have slowed Caribbean Cement’s distribution.

Nepal: The Cement Manufacturers Association of Nepal (CMAN) recorded average capacity utilisation across the local cement sector below 30% following the start of a national coronavirus lockdown that started in late April 2021. Despite the end of the Clockdown over the summer, demand is currently low due to an economic slowdown, according to the Kathmandu Post newspaper. It reported that three or four of the country’s 64 cement plants have shut down.

CMAN president Dhruba Thapa said, “There is a huge gap in output and demand in the market currently. Nepal's cement industry has a production capacity of 22Mt/yr, and this will rise to 25Mt/yr in the 2022 financial year. Demand reached around 9Mt in the 2021 financial year."

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) says that government-mandated coronavirus restrictions have reduced local cement demand by 20%. Roongrote Rangsiyopash, the president and chief executive of SCG, said that the construction sector expected a slowdown due to the closure of construction worker camps, according to the Bangkok Post newspaper.

The group’s building materials business sales rose by 4% year-on-year to US$2.81bn in the first half of 2021. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew by 3% to US$399m. Overall, the group’s sales and earnings increased significantly across all business lines.

Trinidad & Tobago: Trinidad Cement says it has no plans to raises its prices at the current time. However, it reserves the right to do so in the future if its production costs change, according the Trinidad Guardian newspaper. The subsidiary of Mexico-based Cemex said that it had suffered ‘significant’ losses due to government coronavirus-related regulations. It has not sold cement to the local market since early May 2021 with the exception of three construction projects due to the request of the government. The cement producer added that its silos and warehouses were fully stocked and that it was ready to start supply when it is given permission to do so.

Cement shortages at retailers has been reported in June 2021. Cement importer Rock Hard Cement announced earlier in the month that it was set to raise its prices in July 2021 due to increasing prices around the world and volatile shipping rates.

India: Ratings agency ICRA has forecast a 25% year-on-year decline in cement sales during the first quarter of the 2022 financial year to 30 June 2021. Domestic cement demand fell by 4% year-on-year and by 35% month-on-month in April 2021, according to the Press Trust of India. The agency said that this was due to the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak to rural areas and the imposition of numerous regional lockdowns. Pent-up demand is expected to drive a gradual recovery in the second quarter from July 2021. Costs for cement companies increased by 5% nationally year-on-year in April 2021. Increased fuel, power and transport costs all contributed to the rise.