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Consequences of US tariffs on the cement sector
05 February 2025US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on imports from Canada, China, Mexico and the European Union this week. Tariffs to Canada and Mexico were announced on 1 February 2025 and then paused for a month to allow for negotiations. Ones to China have been implemented. Tariffs to the European Union have been proposed but nothing has happened yet. What does this mean for the cement sector?
Graph 1: Imports of cement and clinker to the US. Source: USGS. Estimated data for 2024.
The data suggests that whacking 25% tariffs on cement imports from Canada and Mexico would have an impact. The US imported 26.5Mt of cement and clinker in 2023. Based on United States Geological Survey (USGS) data from January to October 2024, imports in 2024 have fallen by 8% year-on-year but they still represent a large chunk of consumption. Türkiye has been the biggest source of imports over the last five years but Canada has been the second biggest supplier. Together with Mexico, it provided over a quarter of imports in 2023. A similar share is expected in 2024. Greece, a country in the EU, has also been present in the top five importing countries to the US during this time.
The Portland Cement Association (PCA) reinforced this view. In a carefully worded statement it took pains to point out alignment with the intentions behind the tariffs, such as appreciating that the administration was open to negotiation and appeared to be flexible. However, it warned that the moves could adversely affect energy and national security, delay infrastructure projects and raise costs. It pointed out the import share from Canada and Mexico, adding that this represented nearly 7% of the US’ cement consumption. It noted which states were the main entry points for cement imports from the two countries. Finally, it highlighted the high level of consumption (36%) that imports from Canada might account for in northern states such as New York, Washington and so on. Meanwhile, Mexico’s National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) warned that the proposed actions might trigger a ‘competitiveness crisis’ in the US.
Holcim’s CEO, by contrast, nonchalantly told Reuters that he didn’t expect any impact by tariffs on his business. Miljan Gutovic described the group’s US operations as a local business with production happening in the country and equipment and spare parts all being sourced locally. This optimistic view is likely to be influenced by the company’s impending spin-off of its US business. The listing in the US remains scheduled for the first half of 2025 with no complications expected from tariffs.
Clearly, implementing tariffs on imports of cement and clinker from Canada and Mexico could cause a shortage in the US in the short term. This, in turn, could lead to higher prices for consumers in the US. This potential effect would be pronounced in border regions that are reliant on imports. It is worth noting that a number of production lines in both Mexico and Canada have previously been mobilised to meet the export market to the US. These lines would likely be mothballed if tariffs were to be implemented, unless they could find other markets. In the medium term though, as the World Cement Association (WCA) pointed out this week, the world produces too much cement. So it looks likely that the US cement market would adjust to a new equilibrium. Taxing imports from the EU would have a similar effect. Although it seems like it would be less pronounced for the US cement market unless it was in conjunction with tariffs to Canada and Mexico. It would certainly be bad news for cement producers in Greece.
Cement producers in the US look set to benefit from tariffs as demand for their products and prices could increase. There is a risk that too sudden a change to the import market could cause adverse market effects through shortages. Many of these companies are multinational groups with headquarters in foreign countries. However, the strength of the US market compared to elsewhere has prompted some of these businesses to become more ‘American’ through listing in the US or focusing merger and acquisition activity in North America.
At this point we’re stuck in a half-way house place where import tariffs have been threatened and negotiations are pending. The relatively muted stock market reaction to the tariffs and Trump’s swiftness in enacting pauses suggest that it is brinkmanship by the US administration. If this situation continues for any length of time then it will likely have an effect all of its own. In which case don’t expect any export-focused investment by cement companies in Canada and Mexico any time soon.
Indonesia: Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) chair Lilik Unggul Raharjo has called for a more ‘robust’ approach to production overcapacity in the cement sector. In a statement by the ASI he lobbied for the government to strengthen its ban on the construction of new plants, according to the Jakarta Post newspaper and Kontan. At present the moratorium applies to obtaining licences via the country’s integrated electronic licensing system (OSS). Lilik also requested a better legal framework to protect the industry.
The government says it is using the block on investment in new cement plants to support the local sector. Restrictions are in place for regions such as Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. However, the government is ‘open’ to new plants being built in areas that have no existing units including Papua and Maluku.
ASI data shows that cement sales reached 77Mt in 2024 with a capacity utilisation rate of 65%. Domestic sales fell by just under 1% year-on-year to 65Mt in 2024. Exports grew by 10% to 12Mt. The ASI expects domestic sales of cement to increase by up to 2% in 2025.
Siam Cement Group forecasts 5% sales growth in 2025
03 February 2025Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) has forecast a 5% year-on-year rise in its full-year revenues due to economic revival and the government’s current stimulus package. President and CEO Thammasak Sethaudom said that increased customer purchasing power in Vietnam will raise SCG’s local cement and building material sales
SCG’s additional focuses will be on entering the Australia and North America markets and developing its high value-added products segment.
Vietnamese cement surplus to remain in 2025
03 February 2025Vietnam: The general director of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM), Nguyen Thanh Tung, says that Vietnam will suffer continued cement overcapacity amid high production costs in 2025. Full-year production is forecast at 125Mt, 96% greater than an expected domestic demand of 63.5Mt. Việt Nam News has reported that Vietnam’s cement exports face an on-going investigation in Taiwan, and are already subject to anti-dumping duties in the Philippines.
VICEM aims to raise its domestic clinker sales volumes by 8% year-on-year to 18Mt, in order to generate sales of US$1.16bn. To this end, Tung urged the government to adopt cement reinforcement in roadbuilding, as well as lifting the export tax on cement.
Oficemen reports cement consumption data for November 2024
23 December 2024Spain: According to the latest data from Oficemen, cement consumption in Spain recorded an average increase of 1.8% in 2024, after rising by 4.3% in November 2024. The figures align with the 1.3% growth observed from January to October 2024. November's boost brought the monthly consumption to 1.34Mt nearly 56,000t more than in November 2023. Despite a 41% growth in exports in November 2024, adding 154,387t, an 8.8% year-on-year decline. From January to November 2024, Spain exported 4.54Mt of cement, 0.44Mt or 9.7% less than the same period in 2023.
Aniceto Zaragoza, general director of Oficemen, said "These positive figures are in line with the forecasts we gave at the beginning of 2024, where we expected a moderate recovery towards the end of the year. With 11 months of data now available, it is not risky to predict that we will close the year with slight positive growth, as we anticipated in January 2024. This trend makes us look at 2025 with some optimism, expecting a more solid increase in consumption."
Indian cement sector to reach 509Mt/yr by 2029
25 November 2024India: The cement sector in India is forecast to reach a market size of 509Mt/yr by the 2029 financial year. A report published by Infomerics Ratings made the prediction based on a market size of 382Mt in the 2023 financial year and a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%. The credit agency noted the cement sector’s mean growth rate of 5.37% over the last decade and the low cement consumption per capita compared to the global average. It also pointed out that the local cement sector “…faced significant pricing challenges, primarily due to weak demand across various regions.” Demand was reportedly low during the first half of the 2025 financial year leading to lower prices particularly in the south of the country.
Aditya Birla targets 200Mt/yr cement capacity by 2035
19 November 2024India: Aditya Birla plans to expand its production capacity by 28% from 156Mt/yr to 200Mt/yr before 2035. Group chair Kumar Mangalam Birla told the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit in New Delhi that scale is key to long-term survival, and that he always aims for his group to be a leader in any given industry in which it operates.
Domain-B News has reported that Birla said "It took the group 36 years to build a 100Mt/yr cement capacity, while it added another 50Mt/yr capacity in five years.”
What will the next Trump presidency mean for the cement sector?
13 November 2024On 6 November 2024, Donald Trump appeared before followers in Florida, US, to declare victory in the 47th US presidential election. A sea of red baseball caps reflected the promise of the former president, now once again president-elect, to Make America Great Again. What Trump’s triumph means for the cement industry is not so straightforward. One lesson of President Trump’s 2017 – 2021 tenure as 45th president is that a Trump presidency comes with winners and losers.
Alongside the international heads of state posting their congratulations to Trump via social media was the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which represents US cement producers. In a post to LinkedIn, it took the chance to set out its priorities for the upcoming presidency, set to commence on 20 January 2025. These include collaborating on ‘market‐based initiatives’ to further reduce US cement’s CO2 emissions, addressing ‘regulatory burdens’ that currently hinder the uptake of alternative fuels (AF) and ensuring favourable policies and funding for the use of alternative cements under federal transport programmes, which are up for renewal in 2026, as well as collaborating on carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
The post was suitably diplomatic for an organisation that will have to work with the incoming administration for the next four years. Reading the policy priorities against some of Trump’s campaign promises, however, they may be more pointed. As part of his plan to stimulate economic growth, Trump has proposed an unspecified reduction of the ‘regulatory burden’ of environmental standards. He also purports to want to replace renewables with increased use of fossil fuels – in direct opposition to the PCA’s goal to slash the US cement industry’s coal and petcoke reliance from 60% to 10% by 2050. The PCA’s stance is not merely ideological: its roadmap is founded on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. Trump, who considers the Paris Agreement a ‘disaster,’ has the stated aim of withdrawing the US from the treaty – for a second time!
The PCA included a positive note that “We can all agree that the ultimate goal of our industry and the government is to best serve the American people.” In case there were any doubt as to what it feels best serves those people, it concluded that it will work with all federal officials to help communities in the US to build ‘a more resilient, sustainable’ country.
Producers themselves, in the US and many other markets, had been finalising first-half or nine-month financial results when the Trump news broke. Now came half-anticipated strategy discussions – and a surprise: in market after market, trading in cement stocks opened on the up. Ireland-based CRH’s share price spiked by 15%, before settling on a rise of 6% day-on-day. Mexico-based Cemex’s rose by 7% and Switzerland-based Holcim’s by 5%. Investors, clearly, glimpsed opportunity in uncertainty for these US-involved operators.
Trump’s campaign successfully positioned him as the disruptive outsider, despite being the known (or, at least, known-to-be-unpredictable) quantity of the two candidates. His promise to Americans was increased affordability; to corporations, deregulation. Either way, he stands to overhaul the past four years’ policy on the economy. All of this may keep Wall Street high-ballers placing their bets on Cemex or CRH, or on Holcim North America after it eventually joins them on the New York Stock Exchange. The prospect of more money in homebuyers’ pockets is attractive, especially to allied sectors like property development, where Trump himself worked for over 40 years. The cement industry, meanwhile, will be taking a hard look at what the Trump proposition might mean for its market.
US Geological Survey (USGS) data tracks a favourable market trend under the present Biden Administration – to date – for a US cement industry that has also grown in production terms. Consumption was 120Mt in 2023, up by 14% over the three-year-period from 2020, while production was 91Mt, up by 4% over the same period. President Biden has signed into law two major pieces of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – with a combined value of US$1.94tn in additional public spending, to President Trump’s none. However, the Republican president previously proposed investing an additional US$200bn in 2018.
Trump voters may have perused the USGS’ most recent monthly cement figures, for July 2024, before casting their votes. The figures recorded a 5.2% year-on-year decline in total cement shipments in the year-to-date, to 58.6Mt. Both Eagle Materials and Italy-based Buzzi noted a recent lack of growth in US sales volumes in their latest financial results. Another possibly alarming trend for the industry – and anyone with a protectionist mindset - is the growth of imports, which rose from 14.8Mt in 2019 to 26Mt in 2023.
A defining feature of Trump’s original presidency, alongside Covid-19 lockdown, was his still-ongoing trade wars. We can expect Trump to resume his roll-out of new tariffs as soon as he can. This might include cement plant equipment produced in other jurisdictions, such as the EU. Compared to the roster of goods he previously denied entry to the US, however, 26Mt/yr of cement will be less easy to wrangle with in a country with a domestic shortfall of 29Mt/yr.
Whatever happens in politics, the US cement sector remains very strong, with historied local ownership and some of the most innovative plants in the industry globally. Global players continue to seek to maximise their US-facing presence, as evidenced by Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos’ contemplation of an initial public offering (IPO) for Votorantim Cimentos North America, announced on 7 November 2024. For the industry, the day-to-day grind – and pyroprocess – goes on.
After all, Trump did not enact many of his more disruptive proposals, such as building a Mexican border wall, after his win in 2016. See Global Cement’s analysis of that proposal here. But even this record is an unreliable guide for what to expect in 2025 – 2029. Not only did Trump himself win the popular mandate this time around, but his allies also gained majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, comprising the US legislature. This betokens a different pace and scale of possible changes.
In 10 weeks’ time, the US cement sector will be lobbying an entirely new regime. Now is the time for it to prepare whatever arguments will appeal to incoming lawmakers to allow it make the best of such opportunities as may be available.
What next for Summit Materials?
30 October 2024Another potentially gargantuan deal in the US building materials sector emerged this week in the shape of Quikrete bidding to buy Summit Materials. The latter company announced that a non-binding acquisition proposal had been received and the business press revealed who it was from. Further reporting suggested that Summit Materials has a market value of around US$7bn.
Quikrete is well known in North America for its packaged concrete products that are often sold in distinctive yellow bags. Its brands include Quikrete cement and concrete, Pavestone and Keystone paver and block products and Rinker concrete pipe and storm-water products amongst others. The company says it operates over 90 manufacturing sites in the US, Canada, Puerto Rico and South America, although it does not appear to own any cement plants. Notably, it is privately owned.
The deal is likely to revolve around the ready-mixed concrete assets that Summit Materials runs. However, readers may recall that Summit Materials and Cementos Argos completed the merger of their operations in the US at the start of 2024. That deal was set to make Colombia-based Cementos Argos the largest shareholder in Summit Materials. The companies also said that it was going to set them up with the fourth-largest cement-making portfolio in the US, with a capacity of 11.6Mt/yr, and place them among the largest aggregates and concrete producers. So it will be interesting, to say the least, to see how Cementos Argos reacts to a change in plans so soon after the merger has finished. Assuming the deal is credible, how it reacts may suggest whether the company is following the money in the short term or sticking to a longer plan.
Yet another large deal in the building materials sector in North America reinforces the diverging fortunes between the markets there and in Europe. However, this dynamic can create its own problems. More details about Holcim’s spin-off of its business in North America, for example, emerged in October 2024. Press reports suggested that the group was considering a dual-listing as its Swiss and other European shareholders were potentially facing restrictions from holding shares outside of their home markets.
Despite the current frenzy for market share and margin in the US by multinational building materials companies though, the cement market hasn’t had the best year so far in 2024. US cement shipments actually fell year-on-year in 2023 and continued to do so during the first seven months of 2024, according to United States Geological Survey (USGS) data. The Portland Cement Association (PCA)’s Chief Economist Ed Sullivan blamed this mainly on high interest rates. He then noted in an autumn forecast that a cut in rates was likely to benefit the construction market from mid-2025 onwards. Anne Noonan, the CEO of Summit Materials, also noted the negative effect of interest rates on construction projects at a recent Colorado Business Roundtable event.
None of this has discouraged the hunger of companies to cash in on the US market. Even the uncertainty of the impending US presidential election taking place on 5 November 2024 has failed to quell this desire. In brief, either administration might take different approaches to trade protectionism, infrastructure investment plans, green investment, permitting, regulations and so on. Yet the market fundamentals are strong for building materials. Koch helped MITER Brands buy window and door manufacturer PGT Innovations for US$3.1bn in January 2024 and Owens Corning acquired another door producer, Masonite, for US$3.9bn in May 2024. Quikrete smells potential and it may follow.
Chilean cement sales contract in first half of 2024
18 October 2024Chile: The combined cement sales of Cbb, Melón and Polpaico continued a three-year decline with a 4% year-on-year drop in the first half of 2024, to 1.83Mt. In terms of market shares, Polpaico retained 40%, Melón 34% and Cbb 26%. Noticias Financieras News has reported that low domestic demand caused the fall in sales. Despite the general downturn, Cbb succeeded in more than doubling its profit to US$18.5m, by increasing its shipments of cement, which offset a decline in concrete sales.
Polpaico said "During the second quarter of 2024, the cement and concrete industry in Chile continued to face significant challenges, reflected in a slowdown in the construction sector." It added that there was ‘constant price competition’ exacerbated by an ‘abnormal volume of rainfall’ in June 2024.
Melón said "There has been a slowdown in projects under development compared to previous periods. On the other hand, production and distribution costs have continued to be under pressure, which in this period are mainly related to the increase in the exchange rate."