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Update on the UK, June 2024
26 June 2024The Hillhead Quarrying, Construction and Recycling Show is in full flow this week, taking place near Buxton in Derbyshire. As one delegate marvelled on the panoramic minibus journey down to the quarry, “It’s like a music festival without the music and… other stuff.” Indeed. Of course what one doesn’t find at Glastonbury and the like is a near comprehensive range of suppliers, over 600 of them, to the industry all in one place… in a quarry! Where else can one get up close and see the new hydrogen-powered generators and excavating vehicles that are being piloted? The official attendance figures don’t get released until after the event but on the ground it looks as busy as ever. It’s truly the place to be this week.
The show gives us a reason to take a look at the UK cement sector. Like many other countries around the world it is an election year in the UK, with a General Election scheduled for 4 July 2024. The result of this should determine the next Prime Minister and the ruling party. So, naturally, the MPA, the trade association for the aggregates, asphalt, cement, concrete, dimension stone, lime, mortar and industrial sand industries, is taking the opportunity to remind the political parties what its priorities are. The quick version is: support for decarbonisation; a streamlined planning system; and better delivery of projects. This sounds familiar to priorities in other countries but one British spin on this includes the UK’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).
Graph 1: Domestic cement sales and imports in the UK, 2017 – 2022. Source: MPA.
Edwin Trout’s feature on the UK cement sector in the June 2024 issue of Global Cement Magazine presents a good overview of the last 12 months. The general UK economy has faced shocks in recent years such as Brexit, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. However, this has been further compounded by a downturn and high interest rates since late 2022 when the then Prime Minister Liz Truss caused market turbulence in the wake of a badly received government financial statement. As Trout relates, sales of heavy building materials have been in relative decline since mid-2022 with more of the same expected in 2024. Production of cement in 2023 is currently uncertain given the reporting time lag from the MPA but up until 2022 domestic cement sales fell somewhat but imports grew. This has created a situation where overall cement sales in 2022 were 12Mt, not far behind the annual level in the early 2000s. However, the share of imports has nearly doubled since then. More recent MPA data on mortar and ready-mixed concrete sales throughout the first nine months of 2023 suggest that market activity has decreased and poor weather at the start of 2024 looks set to have made this worse.
Despite the apparent slowdown in building materials sales the cement companies have been conducting smaller-scale maintenance and upgrade projects at their facilities and supply chain schemes such as the cement storage unit for deep sea shipping lines that Aggregate Industries said in February 2024 it was going to build at the Port of Southampton. The news the cement companies want to show off has been a steady stream of information about ongoing decarbonisation projects in the cement sector. C-Capture started a carbon capture trial at Heidelberg Materials’ Ketton cement works in Rutland in May 2024, Capsol Technologies said in March 2024 that it had been selected to conduct a study on its carbon capture technology at Aggregate Industries Cauldon cement plant in Staffordshire, Heidelberg Materials' Ribblesdale cement plant in Lancashire announced in March 2024 that it was taking part in a study to assess the use of ammonia as a hydrogen source for fuelling cement kilns and Heidelberg Materials awarded Japan-based Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) a front end engineering design contract for a carbon capture installation at its Padeswood cement plant in Flintshire in February 2024. Finally, on the divestment front, CRH completed the sale of its UK-based lime business to SigmaRoc for €155m in March 2024. The business operates from sites in Tunstead and Hindlow with five permitted lime kilns.
That’s it for this short recap on the UK for now. For a longer look at the UK cement sector read Edwin Trout’s feature in June 2024 issue of Global Cement Magazine.
Hillhead 2024 runs until 27 June 2024
China to cap clinker production capacity
12 June 2024The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.
Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.
Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.
As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.
It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.
The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.
The Gambia: The Gambian government has released over 300 truckloads of imported cement held at the Senegal border at Farafenni. The Ministry of Trade, Industry, Regional Integration and Employment described the move as a one-time measure intended to alleviate the backlog caused by a rise in import duties, by a factor of six, to US$2.66/bag. The Cement Importers and Traders Association (CITA) welcomed the release of the cement, citing concerns over a possible shortage.
China: The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other government departments, has launched the Special Action Plan for Energy Conservation and CO2 Reduction in the Cement Industry. The plan aims to cap clinker capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by 2026, with 30% of it above the national energy efficiency benchmark level. This will reduce energy consumption per tonne by 3.7% from 2020 levels. The plan will eliminate 13Mt of CO2 emissions and 5Mt of coal consumption in 2024 – 2025.
Indonesia: The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has forecast the volume of cement to be used in the construction of the upcoming new capital city, Nusantara, as 1Mt/yr. This corresponds to 1.5% of the current domestic demand of 65.6Mt/yr. The Jakarta Post newspaper has reported that ASI members plan to supply reduced-CO2 cement for the Nusantara project, to help it realise its aims as a ‘green city.’
In 2022 – 2024, the construction of Nusantara is expected to use 1.94Mt of cement. Research from the Bandung Institute of Technology previously forecast in 2022 that the Nusantara project would raise Indonesia’s cement demand by 33% to 84Mt/yr for 20 years from the start of its construction.
Update on Spain, May 2024
29 May 2024Cemex announced last week that it will stop producing clinker at its Lloseta plant in Mallorca. Grinding activity at the site will continue, along with the shipment of bagged and bulk cement products. The company has framed the closure as part of its decarbonisation plans. The dismantling of the two preheater towers at the plant is scheduled to take place by the end of 2030. Cemex said that it will take this long to allow the cement plant to continue operating, as well as a neighbouring hydrogen unit and other nearby industrial units. The status of the Lloseta plant has been in question before. It was closed in early 2019 due to reduced cement demand and mounting European CO2 emissions regulations. However, it reopened in 2021.
Readers may recall that Cemex España participated in the Power to Green Hydrogen Mallorca project. Land by the Lloseta cement plant was used to hold solar panels and a solar-powered hydrogen unit. Other partners in the project included energy suppliers Enagás and Redexis and renewable power and infrastructure company Acciona, among others. When the unit was commissioned in early 2022, it said it was the first solar power-to-green hydrogen plant in Spain. The link between Cemex and hydrogen is noteworthy given the cement company’s adoption of hydrogen injection as part of its alternative fuels strategy. Interestingly, Acciona planned to use a blockchain method to certify that hydrogen produced at the site was made using renewable energy sources. Heidelberg Materials also plans to use the same process to verify its evoZero brand of net-zero cement products in 2025. Another recent sustainability sector news story in Spain is the commissioning by Çimsa of a 7.2MW solar plant supporting its Buñol white cement plant in Valencia. The new installation is expected to supply about 18% of the plant’s energy needs.
On the corporate side of things, FCC revealed in mid-May 2024 that it was preparing to spin-off its cement and real estate subsidiaries into a new company called Inmocemento. The cement part of this is Spain-based Cementos Portland Valderrivas. The move is intended to bolster the values of the different parts of the business. The proposal will be put to FCC’s shareholders in late June 2024, with any resulting action taking place by the end of the year. The decision to separate FCC’s cement assets is reminiscent of the financial engineering Holcim has proposed with its US business. However, in this case the driver does not appear to be the disparity between the European and US stock markets.
Graph 1: Domestic consumption and exports of cement in Spain, 2013 - 2023. Source: Oficemen.
Market data was also out this week from Oficemen, the Spanish cement association. Domestic cement consumption grew year-on-year in April 2024 but the year so far is looking weaker with consumption from January to April 2024 down by 4.5% year-on-year to 4.65Mt. This is below Oficemen’s forecast for 2024 where it expected a stagnant situation. However, there are eight more months to go. In 2023 cement consumption fell by 3% to 14.5Mt and exports declined by 7.5% to 5.2Mt. The association blamed continued underinvestment in both the public and private sectors due to economic instability since the Covid-19 pandemic. Graph 1 above shows the wider situation in the Spanish cement market over the last decade. The share of exports has declined and local consumption rebounded after 2020 but has declined since then.
These news stories provide a snapshot of what’s been happening in Spain recently in the cement sector. Oficemen’s prediction for 2024 is gloomy but local consumption has risen over the past 10 years. Exports have fallen but the cement association has started to spin the country’s decarbonsiation drive as a potential positive for the industry’s competitiveness generally. It’s hard to discern right now but there might be an advantage for an export-focused country that conforms to European standards in the future if it can hold onto its capacity. Admittedly, that’s a big if. This thinking along sustainability lines could be seen earlier in May 2024 when Cementos Molins Group rebranded itself as Molins. It described the rebranding as a bid to represent the wider range of construction products it manufactures and sells beyond cement. Oficemen has also pointed out that the local market has room for development given the relatively low cement consumption per capita in Spain compared to its peers. So, whatever happens next, there is likely to be room for improvement in the cement market.
Update on Ukraine, May 2024
15 May 2024Before Russia invaded mainland Ukraine on 24 February 2023, many predicted that full-scale conflict would be averted. When the attack began, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself expected a 10-day war, according to think tank RUSI. 15 May 2024 marks two years, two months and three weeks of fighting, with no end in sight.
Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, recently published its cement market data for 2023, the first full year of the war. The data showed domestic cement consumption of 5.4Mt, up by 17% year-on-year from 4.6Mt in 2022, but down by 49% from pre-war levels of 10.6Mt in 2021. In 2023, Ukraine’s 14.8Mt/yr production capacity was 2.7 times greater than its consumption, compared to 1.4 times in 2021. Of Ukraine’s nine cement plants, one (the 1.8Mt/yr Amwrossijiwka plant in Donetsk Oblast) now lies behind Russian lines. Four others sit within 300km of the front line in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Among these, the 4.4Mt/yr Balakliia plant in Kharkiv Oblast, the largest in the country, first fell to the Russians, but was subsequently liberated in September 2022.
Before the war, Ukrcement’s members held a 95% share in the local cement market. Their only competitors were Turkish cement exporters across the Black Sea, after the Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade successfully implemented anti-dumping duties against cement from Moldova and now-sanctioned Belarus and Russia in 2019. Since then, Turkish cement has also become subject to tariffs of 33 – 51% upon entry into Ukraine, until September 2026. The relative shortfall in consumption has led Ukraine’s cement producers to lean on their own export markets. They increased their exports by 33% year-on-year to 1.24Mt in 2023, 330,000t (27%) of it to neighbouring Poland.
Russia’s invasion has made 3.5m Ukrainians homeless and put the homes of 2.4m more in need of repair. In a report published in Ukrainian, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) set out its three-year rebuilding plan for the country. USAID projects an investment cost of €451bn, with the ‘main task’ besides homebuilding being to increase the share of industrial production in the economy. Ukraine is 90% equipped to produce all building materials required under the plan. Their production, in turn, will create or maintain 100,000 jobs and US$6.5bn in tax revenues. Reconstruction will also involve the Ukrainian cement industry returning to close to full capacity utilisation, producing 15 – 16Mt/yr of cement.
CRH, an established local player of 25 years, looks best set to claim a share of the proceeds. Stepping down an order of magnitude from billions to millions, Global Cement recently reported CRH’s total investments in Ukraine to date as €465m. Since war broke out, the company has more than tripled its rate of investment, to €74.5m. The Ireland-based group is in the protracted administrative process of acquiring the Ukrainian business of Italy-based Buzzi. If successful, the deal will raise its Ukrainian capacity by 56%, to 8.4Mt/yr – 57% of national capacity. This unusual clumping of ownership may be made possible by the participation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in partly acquiring the assets, as per a mandate letter signed with CRH in 2023.
Leading Ukrainian cement buyer Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group bemoaned the anticipated increase in market concentration. On the one hand, this sounds like a classic tiff between cement producers and users with shallow pockets. On the other hand, an antebellum allegation of cement industry cartelisation should give us pause for thought. Non-governmental organisation The Antitrust League previously reported Ukraine’s four cement producers to the government’s Anti-Monopoly Committee for alleged anticompetitive behavior. This was in September 2021, when Ukraine was barely out of lockdown, let alone up in arms. With all that has happened since, it may seem almost ancient history, yet the players are the same, CRH and Buzzi among them.
Ukrcement and its members have secured favourable protections from the Trade Commission, and, for whatever reasons, evaded the inconvenience of investigation by the Anti-Monopoly Committee – a state of affairs over which the Antitrust League called the committee ‘very weak.’ The league says that producers previously raised prices by 35 – 50% in the three years up to 2021. In planning a fair and equitable reconstruction, Ukrainians might reasonably seek assurance that this will not happen again.
All these discussions are subject to a time-based uncertainty: the end of the war in Ukraine. A second question is where the finances might come from. The EU approved funding for €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans for Ukraine on 14 May 2024. Meanwhile, countries including the UK have enacted legislation to ensure Russia settles the cost of the conflict at war’s end. If Ukraine achieves its military aims, then the finances may flow from the same direction as did the armaments that demolished Ukrainian infrastructure in the first place.
The first piece of Ukraine annexed by Russia was Crimea in February 2014, making the invasion over a decade old. Against such a weight of tragedy, the country cannot lose sight of the coming restoration work, and of the need to ensure that it best serve Ukrainians.
Cemex sells in the Philippines
01 May 2024Cemex announced this week that it is preparing to sells its operations in the Philippines to a consortium comprising Dacon, DMCI Holdings and Semirara Mining & Power. Rumours of the divestment first started to appear in the media in February 2024.
The main part of the deal covers Cemex’s cement subsidiaries, APO Cement and Solid Cement, which have been valued at an enterprise value of US$660m. However, this becomes confusing because the actual selling price is the enterprise value minus the net debt and adjusted for the minority shareholding of one of the parent companies, Cement Holdings Philippines (CHP). The deal also includes the sale of a 40% stake in APO Land & Quarry and Island Quarry and Aggregates. Based on a press release issued by CHP to the Philippine Stock Exchange, the actual cost of the divestment appears to be around US$305m. It is hoped that the divestment will complete by the end of 2024 subject to regulatory approval from the Philippines Competition Commission and other bodies.
Cemex entered the market in 1997 when it acquired a minority stake in Rizal Cement. It then built the business up to a cement production capacity of 5.7Mt/yr from its two main integrated plants, the Solid Cement plant in Antipolo City, Rizal and the APO Cement plant in Naga, Cebu. However, CHP has endured a hard time of late, with falling annual operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) since 2019 and falling net sales in 2022 and 2020. The bad news continued into 2023, with net sales falling by 17% year-on-year to US$300m in 2023 from US$356m in 2022. It reported a loss of US$35m in 2023, double that of 2022. The company blamed the fall in sales on lower volumes. It noted that prices were also down and energy costs had grown.
The three companies buying CHP are all controlled by the Consunji family so effectively DMCI Holdings is acquiring Cemex’s operations in the Philippines. The group focuses on construction, real state, energy, mining and water distribution. It previously announced in the late 2010s plans to build one integrated cement plant on Semirara and three cement grinding plants at Batangas, Iloilo and Zamboanga but these plans didn’t seem to go anywhere. Later it was linked to the proposed Holcim Philippines sale in 2019, although the subsidiary of Holcim eventually gave up on the idea.
This latest attempt to enter the cement business underlines DMCI Holdings’ intent and the group has immediately started saying what it plans to do next. In a statement chair and president Isidro A Consunji admitted that cement demand in the country was ‘soft’ but that it is expected to rebound due to the Build Better More national infrastructure program and an anticipated fall in internet rates. Consunji added, “We recognise CHP's operational and financial issues, but we are positive that we can turn it around by 2025 because of its ongoing capacity expansion and the clear synergies it brings to our group.” He was also keen to play up that CHP is currently building a new 1.5Mt/yr production line at its Solid Cement plant with commissioning scheduled by September 2024. DMCI plans to reduce CHP’s costs through various synergies including supplying it coal, electricity and fly ash from Semirara Mining & Power.
The acquisition of CHP by DMCI Holdings is the biggest shake-up in the local cement sector in a while. DMCI has long harboured ambitions in heavy building materials and now it’s close to becoming a reality. As evidenced by its statements following the official announcement of the deal it is already thinking ahead publicly to soothe shareholder concerns. What will be interesting to watch here is whether it can actually pull it off and whether it will face trouble from imports. Readers may recall that the Philippines cement sector has long battled overseas imports, particularly from Vietnam. Despite anti-dumping tariffs though the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) warned in January 2024 that workers could be laid off due to continued competition from imports. Good luck to DMCI.
JK Cement expands Panna cement plant
01 May 2024India: JK Cement has inaugurated a US$341m new line at its Panna cement plant in Madhya Pradesh. The new line doubles the plant's capacity from 3.3Mt/yr to 6.6Mt/yr. Press Trust of India News has reported that the line is equipped with optimised kiln systems, energy-saving technologies and a waste heat recovery plant. The expanded Panna plant will help serve ‘growing demand’ in Central India, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Managing director Raghavpat Singhania said "Our new Panna plant production line is a key pillar in our comprehensive business expansion plan, propelling us towards our vision of becoming a leading player in the cement industry. This strategic expansion allows us to meet the rising demand for high-quality cement, ultimately enhancing our ability to serve our customers.”
Chinese cement capacity utilisation drops to 50%
26 April 2024China: Capacity utilisation in the Chinese cement sector has dropped to 50% in April 2024, down from 80% in April 2023. Reuters reported the development, citing data from China Coal Industry. Local coal suppliers reportedly face depressed demand.