Many people have been adapting to home working over the last few months due to the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting lockdowns. The digital tools have been present for years but current events were all that was needed to force everyone to try it out en masse, moving much of the back office, supporting and managerial functions to the homes of staff. Some of this communal clerical working may never come back in the views of some commentators. Other functions related to networking, such as sales or knowledge transfer, have moved to different channels like webinars and social networking or have resorted to older methods like using the telephone more. The balance between real world and remote networking may change but a return to some level in favour of the former seems likely.

The core processes of cement manufacture are resistant to this trend as workers need to be on site to mine limestone and maintain production lines. Although, that said, Global Cement Magazine has covered examples of remote commissioning and maintenance of equipment at plants in recent issues. Prior to this there has been steady work on remote monitoring of equipment and plants by both suppliers and producers and moves by cement companies to focus on digital operation such as LafargeHolcim’s ‘Plants of Tomorrow’ Industry 4.0 from 2019 or Cemex’s work on autonomous cement plant operations with Petuum.

Some ways in which cement companies have coped with social distancing recently have been revealed as they have published their best practice guides. Last week, for example, Holcim Philippines was promoting its various online customer interaction tools including its existing sales platform and a new online customer engagement program to ‘provide updates on the company’s directions, share knowledge and best practices on Health and Safety and to bond with business partners while quarantines are in place.’ Other companies have done similar things like the Cemex Go platform. On the supplier side there have been various announcements as companies have pushed their digital offerings. Meanwhile, the companies offering automation or remote operation products have been handed a unique stage to promote their wares.

Another example of cement companies trying something new in digital is the pilot that was announced this week by Siam Cement Group with the Bank of Thailand to test out payment systems using a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This likely has very little to do with the cement industry and much more to do with the sheer size of that conglomerate in Thailand. As the second largest company in the country, it’s an obvious target to try out something new like this at scale. The project will run from July 2020 until the end of the year. It will build on work that the central bank has carried out on Project Inthanon, a project between the bank and the eight financial institutions to study and develop a method for domestic wholesale funds transfer using wholesale CBDC. Any benefits using a CBDC eventually bring to Siam Cement Group and other producers in the country are likely to be limited to finance departments but savings are always welcome wherever they arise.

One cautionary note to consider though is that introducing changes to national currency systems can have impacts upon cement companies through general effects to the economy as a whole. The classic example of this in recent years is that of banknote demonetisation in India in late 2016. Cement production growth declined for about half a year at the time due to the disruption it caused.

The downside of this increased reliance on digital products and platforms is increased exposure to cybercrime. There was a rare good-news story in this area recently when Schmersal Group revealed that it had intercepted a network attack in progress in May 2020. It promptly took its IT network offline and disconnected its various systems, from the telephones, to its business software, to its production processes and automated storage systems, at all of its locations. Systems were then gradually cleansed and restored over the next two weeks. Schmersal’s response is commendable but chillingly it ended its press release by saying that, “the attack demonstrated that standard protection from antivirus programs and a firewall is powerless in the event of a targeted attack with previously unknown malware.” Companies had the same vulnerabilities before the pandemic but the increased reliance on digital platforms has heightened the potential risk. As we mentioned last time we covered this topic companies that admit to large scale malware attacks are hard to find most likely because it looks bad. Although since that article was published, Buzzi Unicem admitted that a ransonware attack on its information systems originating from its Ukrainian operations were delaying its financial disclosures in mid-2017.

In the longer term it will be interesting to see how much of the altered working patterns or methods created by the coronavirus lockdowns remain afterwards. The current situation isn’t quite like the ‘disruptive innovation’ business theory pedalled by Clayton M Christensen that has led in-part to established companies setting up start-up incubators to try and spot the next big new thing. Yet, existing trends are being sped up and this may lead to some surprises that were coming down the road anyway. For example, buying someone shares in video networking tool Zoom would have made a nice Christmas present this year! Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Exports are the theme this week with news that the value of Turkey’s cement exports fell by 26% year-on-year in April 2020. Reporting from the Trend News Agency showed that the export market has been stable so far for the year to date, with some countries, like Kazakhstan, increasing exports and others, like France, decreasing exports. However the change in April may mark the start of a new trend.

As Tamer Saka, the chairman of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB), said earlier in the year, his country is one of biggest cement exporters in the world and among its most important markets are the US, Israel, Ghana and Ivory Coast. To look at one of these countries, United States Geology Survey (USGS) data shows that cement and clinker imports from Turkey to the US grew by 26% year-on-year to 1Mt for the first quarter of 2020 but that exports fell by 24% year-on-year to 0.11Mt in March 2020. Each of these countries is being affected in different ways by the coronavirus pandemic and at different times. Overall though, Saka’s and the TÇMB’s forecast in February 2020 that exports would rise by 15% year-on-year in 2020 is looking decidedly shaky. Any knock to the export market in Turkey is particularly unwanted given the poor state of the Turkish economy at the moment.

What would be useful to know here is how other major cement exporters are coping with the global situation. Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that Pakistan’s cement exports dropped by 31% year-on-year to 0.36Mt in April 2020. Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) for the same month tells a similar story. Its data shows a 57% drop in exports to 0.25Mt in April 2020, with a bigger share lost by plants in the north of the country than those in the south.

The other country to note is Vietnam. Here, data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. This follows the announcement by Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) chair Nguyễn Quang Cung in May 2020 that all cement plant projects scheduled to begin in 2020 would be suspended. Luckily those currently being built avoided this fate. This has included a new line at Thanh Thang Group Cement’s integrated Bong Lang cement plant, which Germany’s Loesche has just sent a pair of clinker mills to this week.

These changes from the major cement exporters are bad for their host countries but the other side of the chain is how their destinations are affected. For example, Australia’s clinker imports nearly doubled between 2010 – 2011 and 2018 – 2019 to 4.1Mt. This compares to local clinker production of 5.6Mt in 2018 – 2019, according to the Cement Industry Federation and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. With this in mind, this week saw the resolution to a legal dispute between Wagners Holdings and Boral over a cement supply contract. Boral found a cheaper source of cement from Cement Australia in early 2019 and the two parties argued over their contract. This dispute may have nothing to do with foreign import levels but Wagners Holdings, Boral and Cement Australia all operate standalone clinker grinding plants and will all be subject to general market pricing trends. Higher international clinker levels may add pressure to pricing issues surrounding cement supply contracts in Australia and elsewhere.

Finally, cement trade flows aren’t the only commodity that has been affected by coronavirus disruption. The mass movement of workers home and then back to work is expected to complicate India’s return to business, as discussed in last week’s column. In this context it’s pleasing to come across one sign of normality. Local press in Hubei, China reported this week that workers from Huaxin Cement finally flew back to Uzbekistan. They were originally meant to commission a new plant in March 2020 but became stranded at home when they returned for the Chinese New Year. Commissioning of the plant is now planned for later in June 2020.

The Virtual Global CemTrans Conference and Exhibition 2020 on cement & clinker, shipping & trade, transport & logistics takes place on 16 June 2020. To find out more information and to register click here.

April 2020 data from the Japanese Cement Association (JCA) suggests that Japan has avoided the worst effects of the coronavirus outbreak. The industry’s total sales fell by 2.4% year-on-year to 16.4Mt in the first four months of 2020 from 16.8Mt in the same period in 2019. This is the kind of change associated with business as usual market trends, rather than the 20% declines seen elsewhere around the world in association to the coronavirus. In part this reflects the country’s case and mortality rate, which are far lower than other Group of Seven (G7) countries. The reasons for this may be due to lower levels of testing, less stringent lockdown measures and a more effective public health strategy. That last point is perhaps even more impressive given the population’s high median age (47.3). Whatever the reasons, the overall effect on the construction materials business seems low.

Graph 1: Cement production, sales, imports and exports in Japan. Source: Japanese Cement Association.

Graph 1 above shows the Japanese cement market in a historical context. Production peaked in the mid 1990s at a little below 100Mt/yr followed by a decline to above 40Mt/yr since 2010. This informs the current situation once one removes any effects from the health emergency. As Naoki Ono, the chairman of the JCA and the chief executive officer (CEO) of Mitsubishi Materials, described it in late May 2020, domestic demand for cement fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 41Mt in 2019. He blamed this on the completion of construction work for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, the end of a period of rebuilding following natural disasters and a shortage of manpower.

All of this may explain why Taiheiyo Cement announced the acquisition of a 15% stake in state-owned Semen Indonesia subsidiary Solusi Bangun Indonesia in April 2020. At the time the producer said explicitly that the partnership with Semen Indonesia was part of Taiheiyo Cement’s response to a, “forecasted long-term decline in domestic cement demand in Japan.” Given the competiveness of the Indonesian market it seems like a brave move given the country’s overcapacity, the departure of LafargeHolcim and the arrival of China’s Anhui Conch. Meanwhile at home, Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries said in February 2020 that the companies were discussing a potential merger of their cement businesses. The letter of intent suggests a schedule of late September 2020 to sign a definitive agreement and a target of April 2022 to complete the integration. This follows the two companies working together since 1998 on a joint venture called Ube-Mitsubishi Cement, which integrated their cement sales and logistics operations. Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries are the third and fourth largest producers by production capacity in the country. A merger would potentially give the combined entity the same production base as the largest producer, Taiheiyo Cement.

Taiheiyo Cement’s experience in its 2020 financial year to 31 March 2020 was in line with Naoki Ono’s summary above, with both sales and profits down. Its domestic sales volumes decreased by 5% to 14.5Mt, although exports rose by 11% to 3.9Mt. In its financial report it highlighted its key foreign markets in the US, China, Vietnam and the Philippines. Despite increasing its sales in its 2020 financial year, Sumitomo Osaka Cement’s operating income and profits fell. It blamed this on energy costs, principally coal, and other raw material inputs. It has since published its next medium-term management plan. This includes a number of measures such as cutting costs and looking at overseas expansion. Both Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries reported similar reductions in their sales and profits. Mitsubishi Materials noted that it had observed a decrease in cement shipment due to the construction delay caused by the coronavirus.

Ratings company R&I is optimistic about the Japanese market following the start to 2020. In a recent news release it concluded that domestic cement demand is ‘solid’ for the next few years due to order backlog and anticipated infrastructure projects. In its assessment local producers have been improving their cost structures since 2010 in ways that should support ‘certain levels of profit’ provided domestic demand remains around 40Mt/yr. In the medium to longer term though it still expects domestic demand to decrease slowly. Hence, the overseas expansion, merger and acquisition activity and cost cutting plans of the larger producers. Long trends aside, the Japanese cement sector is coping well so far with the global health pandemic.

Under the current circumstances it’s not surprising to see how much Indian cement production fell in April 2020. Like many other countries, its lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus outbreak suppressed industrial output. Yet seeing an 86% year-on-year fall in the world’s second largest producer is shocking. Cement production declined to 4.1Mt from 29.2Mt. Further data shows, as part of the Indian government’s eight core industries, that steel and cement production suffered the most. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers and electricity generation all fell by far less.

Graph 1: Change in Indian cement production year-on-year (%). Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

By comparison in China monthly cement output only fell around 30% at the peak of its outbreak. The difference is that China implemented a graduated lockdown nationally, with the toughest measures applied in Wuhan, the place the outbreak was first identified. As we reported in April 2020 demand for cement in Wuhan had fallen by around 80% at the time its lockdown ended. Production and demand are different, but India’s experience feels similar except that it’s on a national scale. The last time the country had a dip in cement production recently was in late 2016 when the government introduced its demonetisation measures and dented cement production growth rate (and national productivity) in the process.

UltraTech Cement, Orient Cement, Ambuja Cement, India Cement, Dalmia Bharat, JK Lakshmi Cement, Shree Cement and others all suspended operations to varying degrees in the first phase of the lockdown in late March 2020. Operations of industrial plants in rural areas was then cleared to restart in mid-April 2020, although subject to local permissions and social distancing rules, as the country’s lockdown zones took shape. All of this started to show in company results towards the end of March 2020 as sales started to be hit. The worst is yet to filter through to balance sheets.

March 2020 was a particularly bad time for the government to shut down cement plants because it is normally the month when annual construction work peaks. Cement production usually hits a high around the same time. The monsoon season then follows, reducing demand, giving producers a poor time to restart business. Credit ratings agency Care Ratings has forecast that capacity utilisation will drop to 45% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year. This follows a rate of 65 – 70% over the last six years with the exception of 2019- 2020, which was dragged down to 61% due to lockdown effects. On top of this labour issues are also expected to be a major issue to the sector returning to normality. The mass movement of workers back to their homes made world-wide news as India started its lockdown. Now they have to move back and Care Ratings thinks this is unlikely to complete until after the monsoon season, by September 2020. Hence, it doesn’t expect a partial recovery until the autumn, nor a full recovery until January 2021 at the earliest.

Not everybody is quite as gloomy though. HM Bangur, the managing director at Shree Cement recently told the Business Standard newspaper that he was expecting a rebound following the resumption of production in May 2020. He also reported a capacity utilisation rate of 60% at his company, higher than Care Rating’s prediction above, and he noted a difference between demand in rural areas and smaller cities (higher) compared to bigger cities (lower).

India is now pushing forward with plans to further unlock its containment measures to focus on the economy. However, daily reported news cases of coronavirus surpassed 8000 for the first time on Sunday 31 May 2020. How well its more relaxed lockdown rules will work won’t be seen for a few weeks. While this plays out we’ll end with quote from HM Bangur that will resonate with cement producers everywhere: “sales are imperative.”