Displaying items by tag: China

Data is starting to emerge about how the Chinese cement industry has coped with the economic effects of government action regarding the coronavirus. National cement industry output fell by 29% year-on-year to 150Mt in the combined months of January and February 2020. Output then picked up to 149Mt in March 2020, a drop of 17% compared to March 2019. These are massive figures, larger than the annual output of most countries, but they give some idea of what shutting down economies does to demand for cement and concrete.

Graph 1: Year-on-year change in cement output in China, April 2018 - March 2020. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Note that accumulated data is issued for January and February each year so these months show a mean figure.

Graph 1 above gives the general picture of changes in cement output in China over the last couple of years. Growth fell in early 2018 as the government implemented its supply-side reforms, including measures such as industry consolidation and peak shifting. This improved in the second half of the year and throughout 2019. January and February output has been steady for the last few years, possibly due to peak shifting, but this year the trend was massively more pronounced. In March 2020, meanwhile, output fell by 17% compared to a rise of 17% in 2019. On the demand side, reporting from the Chinese Cement Association reveals that national infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 19.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. National real estate development investment fell by 7.7% to US$310bn.

The figures above are for the whole of China whilst the outbreak was centered in Wuhan in Hubei province. The government implemented its toughest public health measures in this city and the surrounding Hubei province, with other regions using social distancing and tracking methods to various degrees. The Chinese Cement Association explains that, once other cities in Hubei province were released from lockdown, construction projects were allowed to resume but that progress was limited due to a lack of workers. Three weeks after measures were relaxed, the average shipping rate for cement producers was only 60% in these outer regions. In Wuhan the situation was more stark with demand for cement at only 20% of expected levels at the time the lockdown ended on 8 April 2020. Data from the Hubei Cement Association reports that on 30 March 2020 only half of Hubei province’s 57 clinker production lines were producing cement. The rest were suspended. To compound the problems here once logistics networks started to reopen imports of cement from other provinces flooded in taking advantage of price differences.

Few if any of the larger domestic producers have released their first quarter financial results for the first quarter of 2020. Huaxin Cement has said that its sales fell by 36% and that this is expected to cause a profit drop of 46% year-on-year to US$100m. Shanshui Cement has said likewise, although it has not released any forecasts. In its annual report for 2019 released in early April 2020, Anhui Conch said that the coronavirus had exerted a ‘short-term negative impact’ on the group’s business due to the slowdown in supply and demand in the construction materials industry. CNBM also acknowledged the situation in its 2019 report saying that it would, ‘impact on economic activity.’ CNBM’s subsidiary BNBM, a gypsum wallboard manufacturer, has released a forecast for the first quarter predicting a 90% drop in net profit due to poor sale volumes.

How this can inform the cement industries of other countries around the world that have enacted restrictions on their populations is unclear. China, as ever, is an exceptional outlier both economically and as a cement producer. Plus, the severity of how a country enacts a lockdown is crucial here. If the early reports above are indicative then half of Hubei’s clinker lines were forced to suspend production, demand for cement fell by 80% at the time the lockdown ended and imports headed in once transport networks were reopened. Issues were also noticed with labour shortages. Forewarned is forearmed as they say. The next point of focus will be how fast the Hubei and Chinese cement industry recovers from this shock. More on this as we have it.

China: Shanshui Cement has said that it expects its first-quarter losses to rise year-on-year in 2020 due to coronavirus. ET Net News has reported that, though losses are normal in the quarter containing the winter shutdown, they are expected to have been greater than usual in 2020 due to decreased sales and delays to startup caused by the outbreak.

China: The China Building Materials Federation and the China Silicate Society have named Hauxin Cement as the winner of the Science and Technology Award 2019 for its digitisation project. The project, entitled ‘Development and Innovation of a Cement Enterprise Operation Digital System,’ aims to modernise management at a pan-business level by using monitoring and analysis, intelligent logistics and a service centre system across 11 different software platforms. 39 Huaxin-affiliated companies currently use the product.

China: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has published data showing 94% domestic cement production capacity utilisation in the two-week period ending 10 April 2020, marking an end to coronavirus shutdowns in all provinces. Excavator sales in March 2020 numbered 49,400, up by 12% year-on-year from 44,300 in March 2019. Construction materials analyst Xu Xianchun said, "Demand in the construction industry has basically recovered to 2019's level, driven by new and resumed projects." Xinhua News Agency has reported that cement prices have also climbed on a month-by-month basis.

China: Huaxin Cement has announced a predicted profit drop of 46% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, to US$100m from US$188m in the corresponding three months of 2019. Huaxin Cement said, “During the reporting period, the company's performance declined significantly, mainly due to the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which caused sales to fall by 36%.”

China: China Tianrui Group’s net 2019 profit was US$256m, up by 50% year-on-year from US$171m. Sales rose by 20% to US$1.70bn from US$1.42bn. This was due to increased volumes and prices.

Zimbabwe: China-based Sino-Zimbabwe Cement Company and LiveTouch Invest, owner of Diamond Cement Zimbabwe, have acquired a six hectare site in the coal mining area of Hwange, Matabeleland North Province, and announced a planned investment of US$30m in the construction of a grinding plant which will grind clinker with waste materials from coal extraction to produce cement.

LiveTouch Invest had previously mooted the idea of a Zimbabwean clinker plant joint venture with South Africa-based PPC in July 2019.

Switzerland: LafargeHolcim has announced measures to limit the ‘volatile’ impacts of coronavirus on health and business. The measures, which overrule its previous 2020 guidance, consist of: a year-on-year capital expenditure (CAPEX) reduction of Euro378m, a year-on-year fixed cost reduction of Euro283m and a reduction of net working capital ‘at least in line with level of activity.’ LafargeHolcim has said that it had Euro7.56bn strongly liquid assets as of 26 March 2020.

LafargeHolcim predicted that global construction’s cement demand will decline in April and May 2020. It said the construction sector has begun to recover in China, where all of its cement plants outside of Hubei province are once more operational. It expects to deliver 70% of it April 2019 Chinese volumes in April 2020.

China: Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement’s net profit in 2019 was US$197m, representing a 20% year-on-year increase from US$164m. Reuters has reported that on 15 November 2019 Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement paid US$82.6m for a lease and limestone exploration rights for land in De’an County, Jiangxi Province, previously held by Fushan Cement. On 25 June 2019 the company received US$23.3m in government compensation for the relocation of its Wannian cement plant.

Cement producers and suppliers are now reacting to the coronavirus pandemic at scale. The biggest obvious development has been the lockdown in India that began on 24 March 2020. The implications for the cement industry are profound given the country’s population (1.3Bn) and massive cement consumption under normal conditions. It is the country with the world’s second largest cement production capacity.

UltraTech Cement, the biggest producer, said that it was suspending production at ‘various’ locations although it added that the situation was ‘dynamic’ and that it was monitoring it from time to time. Ambuja Cement and JK Lakshmi Cement have done likewise. The latter has suspended cement production at an integrated plant in Rajasthan and three grinding plants in Gujarat. Some Indian states have moved faster than others towards shutting down movement of people so JK Lakshmi’s decision may merely be based on legal necessity. However, a difference may arise in producer strategies between keeping integrated and grinding plants open. Building up inventory is one strategy seen in poor market conditions previously around the world. Alternatively, moving to more of a grinding model might make sense in some territories if, as is happening, countries implement lockdowns at different periods. However, some Indian states have moved faster than others towards shutting down movement of people and JK Lakshmi Cement’s closure pattern may simply reflect this.

At the international scale HeidelbergCement gave an idea to Reuters of the challenge facing the multinationals. Chief executive officer (CEO) Dominik von Achten described the start of 2020 as being strong but that construction projects were being delayed in the US and that activity in France and Spain was starting to weaken. Unsurprisingly, the company has shut down three of its plants in Lombardy at the centre of the Italian epidemic. He added that the group was holding a daily crisis call to assess the effect of the virus upon staff. He also said that the group was stockpiling cement amid the disruption. The clear warning sign was of an existential threat like that faced by the airlines whereby sales could simply stop for a three or four week period… or longer.

On the supplier side, Denmark’s FLSmidth has issued a robust plan on how it is aiming to maintain service and support for its customers. Past all the now-usual stuff such as remote working it included detail on how to support clients on site where absolutely necessary on a case-by-case basis. With regards to its supply chain it pointed out that it was confident, “that any local interruptions to our suppliers can be minimised, even when the agility of some suppliers is put to the test. We have redundancy built into the system.” To this end it emphasised the global nature of its business to ensure that it could deliver parts and equipment to its customers. It claimed that it coped with coronavirus in China due to its ‘very flexible’ supply chain but did admit to some supply chain impacts. Yet it says that production is back to approaching full capacity with workshops in Qingdao and Shanghai above 90% as they work their way through accumulated backlogs. Finally, it is also offering advice on how the company can support its customers on reducing or shutting down operations.

Other supplier comments on the situation have mainly been about protecting staff, working remotely and supporting customers through continued supply of equipment and services. Back in India, Sameer Nagpal, the CEO of refractory manufacturer Dalmia-OCL told Business Standard that the company was coping so far with the crisis with little major impact seen so far. Its raw material supply chain was dependent on China but after some minor disruption it was secure. Most of its customers are domestic, where it hadn’t reported problems so far, although this may change with the Indian lockdown. Exports were a different story as it sends around 10% of its production abroad and it has a plant in Germany. In Europe it was seeing a challenge due to supply chain disruption.

The experiences above are a snapshot of some of what is happening in parts of the industry as coronavirus disruption hits home. China’s restrictions are easing, most of Europe is in lockdown, India has started its quarantine and the US has restricted movement in about a third of its states. The current restrictions in the UK, for example, allow for construction work to continue but local media is debating the associated risks for workers. Other territories have different rules. All of this is affecting demand for cement and concrete. This in turn feeds through to producers and their suppliers. Global Cement continues to monitor the situation and wishes readers a safe passage through the pandemic.