Displaying items by tag: China

Huaxin Cement revealed this week that it is buying Holcim’s majority stake in Lafarge Africa for US$1bn. The moment marks a big step in the China-based cement producer’s international ambitions. It has been linked in the financial media to many divestments around the world in recent years. Yet this appears to be its largest acquisition so far and it adds to what is becoming a serious sized multinational business in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The details of the deal are that Holcim has agreed to sell its 83% share of Lafarge Africa to Huaxin Cement. Lafarge Africa operates four integrated cement plants in Nigeria at Sagamu and Ewekoro in Ogun State, at Mfamosing in Cross River State and the Ashaka Cement plant in Gombe State. It has a combined production capacity of 10.5Mt/yr. The transaction is expected to close in 2025 subject to regulatory approvals.

Holcim holds a relationship with Huaxin Cement that dates back to the late 1990s when it first bought a stake in the company. Following the formation of LafargeHolcim in the mid-2010s, Lafarge’s subsidiary Lafarge China Cement was sold to Huaxin Cement. At the end of 2023 Holcim reported that it owned just under a 42% share in the company. Huaxin Cement has also bought assets from Holcim as the latter company has divested subsidiaries over the last decade. In 2021 it bought Lafarge Zambia and Pan African Cement in Malawi from Holcim. This adds to other acquisitions in the region. In 2020 it purchased African Tanzanian Maweni Limestone from ARM Cement. Later in 2023 it picked up InterCement’s subsidiaries in Mozambique and South Africa. In addition, in October 2024 local media in Zimbabwe reported that the company was planning to build a grinding plant. Now, throw in the plants in Nigeria and Huaxin Cement is the second biggest cement producer in Sub-Saharan Africa after Dangote Cement.

Huaxin Cement said it had an overseas cement grinding capacity of just under 21Mt/yr at the end of 2023. However, this figure included plants in Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Oman, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Data from the Global Cement Directory 2024 suggests that the company now has 10 integrated cement plants in Sub-Saharan Africa with a cement capacity of around 18Mt/yr. It also operates a number of grinding plants in these countries.

The Lafarge Africa deal is significant because a mainland China-based cement producer has finally hit the US$1bn window in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity overseas. Many potential acquisitions in the sector are linked by the press to Chinese companies these days. However, most of the activity to date has been of a plant-by-plant or piecemeal nature. Alternatively, these companies have been building their own plants around the world as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Taiwan Cement Corporation (TCC) has spent more buying itself into Türkiye-based OYAK Cement since 2018 but it is headquartered in Taipei.

The question from here is how much further does Huaxin Cement plan to expand both in Africa and beyond? The obvious answer is that it will keep going given the state of the cement sector back home in China, the retreat of the western multinationals and the demographic trends in the region. World population growth is predicted to be fastest in Africa in the coming decades and demand for cement should follow. Outside of Africa, the ‘big’ one recently has been InterCement in Brazil. Unfortunately for Huaxin Cement though, InterCement extended its exclusivity deal with Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) in November 2024. If the Lafarge Africa transaction completes then it will be the biggest deal yet and it will welcome a China-based cement company to the big league of international M&A. It may just be the start.

Uzbekistan: Customs authorities have raised the clearance fee for cement imported from Tajikistan by seven-fold. In early November 2024 the fee was increased by US$300/t from US$35/t previously, according to the Asia Plus news agency. A source quoted by the news agency speculated that the move follows a strategy meeting by local cement manufacturers in October 2024. Tajikistan has previously been the main supplier of cement to Uzbekistan. However, as the country has built new cement plants, often supported by investors in China, domestic production capacity is growing. The Uzbek government previously banned cement imports for a short period in mid-2020.

The mood music for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan has been poor. Despite this though the decarbonisation prospects for the cement sector are looking rosier than other industries.

First, the negatives. People are starting to question whether the COPs are fit for purpose. Donald Trump’s election as President-Elect in the US before the event started pretty much set the tone given that he intends to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. Again. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev described his country’s natural gas resources as a “gift from God” following reports that, once again, COP national delegates had been caught promoting fossil fuel deals. France and Argentina also withdrew their lead negotiators for differing political reasons. Meanwhile, there has been increasing lobbying against carbon capture from the environmental sector. In short the view is growing that carbon capture is a delaying tactic by fossil fuel companies rather than a viable solution. This poses a threat to the cement sector because its current net zero roadmaps require carbon capture.

The World Cement Association’s CEO Ian Riley asked in a statement whether there might be “...a shift toward negotiations driven by the major emitters - China, the US, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.” However he observed that none of these countries yet seem ready to lead on the climate agenda globally.

Now, the positives. Cement CO₂ sector emissions may have continued to fall in 2023. The Global Carbon Project published its Global Carbon Budget 2024 in mid-November 2024. It predicts that global fossil CO₂ emissions will rise by 0.8% year-on-year in 2024 with emissions from coal, oil and gas still mounting. However, emissions from cement producers are expected to fall by 0.8%. This trend started in 2022. It appears to be due to declines in China, the US and the EU but, notably, not in India. It’s worth commenting here that this decline may be principally down to the parlous state of the real estate market in China, but there is also a lot of decarbonisation work happening. We’ll take a win where we can.

Next, the Global Cement and Concrete Association’s two big announcements at COP29 have been the publication of its Cement Industry Net Zero Progress Report 2024/25 and the launch of international definitions for low carbon cement and concrete. The progress report proffers a nifty update on how well it’s going. Short version: 23% reduction in emissions intensity since 1990; lots going on; plenty more to do.

One of those issues that require attention is low-carbon procurement. Hence those international definitions. This may seem like an abjectly boring topic but never underestimate the power of standards upon building materials. This should help support governments, policy makers and the private sector to set low carbon procurement rules. Since governments are among the biggest buyers of building materials worldwide, both directly and indirectly, this is intended to start speeding up decarbonisation by driving demand for existing lower carbon cement and concrete products. Whether this is the tool that cracks the global adoption of low carbon building materials remains to be seen. Yet the long lead time it took the Portland Cement Association (PCA) in the US, for example, to promote the use of Portland Limestone Cement is both instructive and inspirational. It can be done and it can deliver results.

COP29 has been described as the ‘finance COP’ because the representatives are hoping to set a new global climate finance target. This target, or new collective quantified goal (NCQG), is seen as one of the summit's main outcomes. It is intended to replace the existing US$100bn goal that is due to expire in 2025. However, the question of how much each country pays has predictably caused disagreements between developed, developing and those countries in between. All of this is well above the ‘paygrade’ of the cement sector but is crucial to what happens next, because it’s going to get expensive. Establishing regional carbon capture infrastructure requires serious funding. Time will tell whether COP29 can actually further this aim. The arguing continues.

China: Shandong Province will curb cement production from 15 November 2024 to 15 March 2025 to reduce air pollution. The measure, similar to last winter's, was announced by the Province's industry and environment ministries. Shandong's reliance on inefficient captive coal-fired power plants means the measure could reduce coal demand significantly.

Starlinger revealed this week that it had taken on copycats in China and won. The packaging machine manufacturer said that it had sued a number of China-based machine manufacturers and their customers, packaging producers, based on infringement of several of its patents. An out-of-court settlement was eventually reached with the case going before both a civil court and a Chinese court specialised in intellectual property. Naturally, Austria-based Starlinger did not say what the settlement involved other than stating that the proceedings had been “...settled with strict obligations for the machine manufacturers.”

It’s unclear how directly the case affected the cement sector. Starlinger did say that the case involved a replica of a proprietary sack conversion line for producing woven plastic sacks. Packaging producers, often in Asia, use Starlinger’s conversion lines to manufacture proprietary block bottom valve sacks made of polypropylene tape fabric for the cement and construction industries, although they are also used for other dry bulk goods such as rice, flour or chemical granulates.

Starlinger’s reasons for going public are interesting given that most companies steer well clear of discussing legal matters openly. In the accompanying press statement Harald Neumüller, the chief strategy officer of Starlinger, used the disclosure to promote his products by saying “Only the best are copied, as the saying goes.” He then went on to underline the company’s strengths in research and development. Yet he also admitted that this was “...little consolation if it has economic consequences for innovative machine manufacturers like us.”

Firstly it should be noted that battles over patents and ideas happen everywhere from time to time. Discussing international copyright theft has become politicised because it plays into the geopolitical rivalry between the US, Europe and China. One US-government commissioned estimate in 2017 reckoned that the US economy was losing US$225 - 600bn/yr due to counterfeit goods, pirated software and theft of trade secrets. This report has been criticised but it gives one an idea of the scale of the concern. However, there are also plenty of prognosticators in the western media who have spent the last two decades warning of a hard landing in the Chinese economy that hasn’t happened.

Bringing this discussion back to cement, following the collapse of the real estate market since 2021, cement output has fallen. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that output decreased by 11% year-on-year to 1.33Bnt in the nine months from January to September 2024. This appears to be following a similar decline in local real estate investment. The market is still correcting itself and the government is making gradual changes but there has been no apparent cataclysm so far. China-based equipment suppliers don’t appear to have suffered to the same degree due to their foreign orders.

The standard western narrative is that when European or American companies sold their equipment in China from the 1990s onwards they contended with a rocketing economy and lax intellectual property (IP) enforcement. Such an environment reputedly made it easy for some local companies to copy machinery and sell it more cheaply. At the same time China’s industries legitimately surpassed their competitors leading to criticism about how they did it. Publicly available evidence of this behaviour in the cement sector is limited. One of the few includes action by Haver & Boecker, another packaging machine manufacturer, in the late 2010s. However, anecdotally, the view that IP was stolen in China is prevalent in the west whether it is true or false. No doubt readers will have their own experiences and opinions. None of which would be publishable. The issue has been superseded though as China’s cement sector has become the largest in the world by a considerable margin. The biggest manufacturers of cement plants in the world are now Chinese companies too. They either use their own equipment or buy in western kit depending on what the customer wants. They also own a number of their overseas competitors and more potential acquisitions look likely.

All of this is what makes Starlinger’s admission unusual. It has taken a stand and it may have paid off. At the very least the equipment supplier is wringing publicity out of the affair regardless of how big - or small - the settlement may have been. Others may follow.

China: Asia Cement (China)’s nine-month profit of US$16.3m in 2023 turned to a loss of US$64.6m in 2024, Dow Jones Institutional News has reported. The group attributed the reversal to a drop in its selling prices.

China: Anhui Conch Cement (Conch Group) and AVIC International Beijing have entered a strategic agreement to combine their expertise and promote technological solutions for decarbonising cement production. The partnership will leverage Conch Group's experience in cement production and equipment manufacturing with AVIC International Beijing subsidiary KHD Humboldt Wedag International (KHD)'s expertise in equipment and engineering. The collaboration aims to expand their cooperation to include building AI-powered, smart and ‘green’ research and development platforms overseas. This will involve modernising traditional cement plants and enhancing operation and maintenance services.

Additionally, the Conch Technology and Industry Research Institute will work with AVIC International Beijing and KHD to apply cement decarbonisation technologies, such as calcined clay, oxyfuel clinker lines and electro-calcining, on an industrial scale at selected Conch production lines.

South Korea: Due to high prices of cement, the government has announced plans to import Chinese cement, which is reportedly about 15% cheaper than domestically produced cement. The preparations to import it, including certification and the construction of storage warehouses, will take about two years.

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans last week to add the cement sector to the country’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) by the end of 2024. The ministry has started the consultation process to also add steel and aluminium production to the system. 2024 will be used as a control year for the new industries entering the scheme, an implementation phase will run in 2025 and 2026 and then the quota allocated to companies will start to be reduced from 2027 onwards. Plants that emit 26,000t/yr of CO₂ or higher will be included in the ETS.

Clearly this is a big deal for the cement industry worldwide, as China produces around half of the world’s cement. As Ian Riley the CEO of the World Cement Association commented, "The inclusion of cement in the Chinese ETS is a critical and long-awaited step. As we have seen in Europe, a well-implemented carbon ETS can be beneficial by not only curbing emissions but also catalysing industry restructuring that favours the most efficient and lowest-emitting producers. This move signals China’s intent to prioritise sustainability in high-emission sectors…” In 2023, for example, China produced 2.02Bnt of cement compared to a global output of 4.10Bnt. This compares to the 176Mt of cement produced in the European Union (EU) in 2022. The EU, of course, is the home of the world’s second largest ETS.

China’s National ETS originally started in 2021 focusing on the power generation sector. It followed several pilot markets in eight regions, which continue to operate in parallel with the national system. At present the National ETS covers more than 2000 companies with emissions exceeding that 26,000t/yr of CO₂ figure mentioned above. These are mostly generation businesses, but it does also cover captive power plants. Overall, the scheme is estimated to cover around 5Bnt/yr of CO₂ and accounts for over 40% of the countryʼs CO₂ emissions. The current targets are an 18% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP compared to 2020 levels by 2025, peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060. Following the addition of the cement, steel and aluminium sectors, however, the ETS is estimated to grow to 8Bnt/yr of CO₂ and it should account for 60% of the country’s CO₂ output.

In April 2024 the average spot price of emissions traded on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange reached €12.7/t of CO₂. This was a notable milestone because in the local currency it exceeded the ‘psychological’ 100 Chinese Yuan threshold. Meanwhile, the EU ETS CO₂ price started to increase in 2021 finally making it just past Euro100/t of CO₂ in early 2023. Since then, it has declined somewhat but remains at €50-75, well above the levels of the 2010s.

In practical terms the real significance of China’s National ETS for the cement sector should begin to be felt once the government starts to tighten up the allocated quotas from 2027 onwards. It is at this point that it will become apparent how the system is being used to drive the pace of decarbonisation. The other part of this to watch is if or when domestic talk turns to setting up a version of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to stop imports. It is at this point that one might be able to tell if the ETS has ‘bite.’

The government has not been shy in regulating industry and one of its starkest tools so far in tackling overcapacity has been mandating cement plants to simply stop production for some months of the year through so-called peak shifting. The National ETS gives it another tool to drive policy changes. Yet it is more complicated and with wider implications to other industries than simply telling plants to take a break. How it fits in globally, where there is a significant difference between the ETS price in China and the EU, remains to be seen. Yet, any additional CO₂-based burden upon the cement sector in the world’s largest cement producing country is a major step towards decarbonisation.

China: China plans to expand its national carbon trading market to encompass the cement industry by the end of 2024, Bloomberg reports. This initiative, announced by Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu, aims to reduce emissions in high-pollution sectors and prepare for the EU’s impending carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) starting in 2026. Currently limited to 2200 power utilities, the expansion will integrate seven more sectors into the market, which China hopes will cover 70% of its emissions by 2030. The Ministry is reportedly seeking public feedback on the proposal until 19 September 2024.