Displaying items by tag: Colombia

Data is starting to emerge from South American countries for the first half of 2020 and it’s not necessarily what one might expect. Countries had different trends in play before the coronavirus pandemic established itself and then governments acted in their own ways with mixed results. Here’s a brief summary of the situation in the key territories.

Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2018 – 2020. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices. Note: Colombian data is for January – May for each year.

Brazil’s cement sector looked set to become the big loser as global events seemed poised to dent the recovery of cement sales since a low in 2018. This didn’t happen. The Brazilian national cement industry union’s (SNIC) preliminary data for the first six months of 2020 shows that sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year to 26.9Mt. This is above the growth rate of 3% originally expected. Indeed, the monthly year-on-year growth rate in June 2020 was 24.5%. SNIC is not wrong in describing this kind of pace as being ‘Chinese.’ All this growth has been attributed to the home improvement market as people used their lockdown time to renovate their homes, renovations and maintenance in commercial buildings during lockdown and growing work on real estate projects. The government’s decision to implement weak lockdown measures clearly helped the sector but this may have cost lives in the process.

SNIC’s president Paulo Camillo Penna pointed out that producing and selling cement could co-exist with fighting coronavirus. However, trends such as a slowing real estate sector, less large construction projects and mounting input costs are all seen as potential risks in the second half of 2020. What SNIC didn’t link to the wider fortunes of the local cement industry was the economic consequences of coronavirus. The World Bank, for example, has forecast an 8% fall in gross domestic product in Brazil in 2020 due to its coronavirus, “mitigation measures, plunging investment and soft global commodity prices.”

Peru, in contrast to Brazil, implemented a strong lockdown early in March 2020. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to work as well as hoped possibly due to informal and structural issues such as reliance on markets, the informal economy and residential overcrowding. This means that production and sales of cement are significantly down without any public health benefit. Both production and despatches fell by about 40% to around 2.9Mt in the first half of 2020 with close to total stoppages in April 2020. In terms of coronavirus, Peru is at the time of writing in the top 10 worldwide for both total cases and deaths, behind only Brazil in South America. It should be pointed out though that Peru’s testing rate is reportedly high for the region and this may be making its response look dire in the short term. All of this is particularly sad from an industrial perspective given that Peru was one of the continent’s strongest performers prior to 2020. One consolation though is that the economy is expected to recover more quickly compared to its neighbours.

Argentina started 2020 with a downward trend in its local market. Cement sales had been falling since 2017, roughly following a recession in the wider economy. Throw in a strong lockdown and sales more than halved at its peak in April 2020. So far this has led to a drop of 31% to 3.83Mt for the first half of 2020 compared to 5.51Mt in the same period in 2019. Unfortunately, a recent spike in cases in Buenos Aires has led to renewed lockdowns in the capital. Due to this unwelcome development and the general economic situation Fitch Ratings has forecast an overall decline in cement sales volumes of 25% for 2020 as a whole.

Finally, Colombia’s cement production fell by 24% year-on-year to 3.90Mt in the first five months of 2020 from 5.14Mt in the same period in 2019. April 2020 was the worst month affected. The country’s lockdown ended on 13 April 2020 for infrastructure projects and on 27 April 2020 for cement production and residential and commercial construction. On 5 May 2020 Cementos Argos said that domestic demand was at 50% of pre-lockdown levels. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics authority, shows that local sales fell by around a third year-on-year to 0.71Mt in May 2020 from 1.06Mt in May 2019.

Most of the countries examined above follow the pattern of reduced cement production and sales in relation to the severity of the lockdown imposed and the resulting intensity of the coronavirus outbreak. Stronger lockdowns suppressed cement production and sales in the region of 20 – 40% in the first half of the year as governments shut down totally and then released industry and commerce incrementally. The exception is Peru, which has suffered the worst of both worlds: a severe lockdown and a severe health crisis. Local trends have continued around this, like the recovery in Brazil in the construction industry and the general recession in Argentina.

SNIC’s president has said that making and selling cement needn’t be exclusive with public health measures. He’s right but Brazil’s surging case load is an outlier compared with most of its continental neighbours and the rest of the world. Cement sectors in countries with growing economies like Peru and Colombia are expected to bounce back quicker than those with stagnant ones like Argentina. The risk for Brazil is what its government health strategy will do to the construction sector in the second half of 2020.

Colombia: Cementos Argos says that 70% of its total cement orders between 1 January 2020 and 9 July 2020 were placed online via its Argos One automated booking, order management and delivery monitoring platform. The platform handled 81% of orders of cement in the Dominican Republic, 39% in the US, 34% in Honduras and 19% in Panama. The company said, “Argos One has become even more relevant in the current context and will continue to evolve in function to continue its purpose of providing extraordinary solutions to clients.”

Colombia: Cementos Argos Colombia has reported on its situation and shared its business outlook as it returns to full operations post-coronavirus lockdown. The company says that 1700 people are currently active in operations, with 910 working from home and 660 on furlough. In May 2020 it served 5300 customers, down by 74% year-on-year from 7210 in May 2019. Cement volumes fell by 41% and concrete volumes by 43%. 44 of Cementos Argos Colombia’s 58 concrete plants were operational, and 73 of its 92 work centres.

During the lockdown period the company completed over 100 new infrastructure project supply contracts. Cementos Argos Colombia regional vice president Tomás Restrepo said, “We are confident in a positive future, in our resilience, in the ability to face challenges and that we have extraordinary talent who are aware of the importance of self-care and who work every day on good ideas to continue to be the best allies of our client.”

Panama: Grupo Argos subsidiary Cementos Argos has announced the “gradual reactivation” of its operations in Panama. The first stage of the post-coronavirus start of operations consists of “supply to prioritised public infrastructure works and sale to hardware stores,” begun on 9 June 2020. Presently the company is awaiting clearance from the Panamanian government to resume deliveries to “construction customers and other types of projects.”

Guatemala: Colombia-based Cementos Argos has announced that it is “exploring opportunities for importing cement into Guatemala.” Subsidiary Argos Guatemala will be responsible for the import and commercialisation of the cement, which will be produced by Cementos Argos in Panama.

Colombia: Cementos Argos has joined other Grupo Argos companies in delivering food packages and parcels to 15,200 unemployed informal construction workers under the ‘A Call to Empathy’ campaign. On 15 May 2020 the campaign has already made 8,500 deliveries in 15 cities across 15 departments of Colombia. It makes use of door-to-door drops and pick-ups from collection points and allied retailers.

Cementos Argos estimates that 100,000 families will benefit from the initiative.

Colombia: Cementos Argos’ first quarter profit was US$1.00m, down by 73% year-on-year from US$3.76m in the corresponding period of 2019. Sales fell by 0.2% to US$545m from US$547m. The volume of cement it sold fell by 6.1% to 3.62Mt from 3.86Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. The company launched RESET, a savings initiative in response to the coronavirus outbreak, which aims to save between US$75.0 and US$90.0m in 2020.

Cementos Argos’ CEO Juan Esteban Calle said, “Given the US$154m-strong cash position of the company, the saving initiatives within RESET, the support from our stakeholders, and the passionate commitment of our more than 7000 employees, we firmly believe that Argos is fully prepared to face the current market conditions.”

Colombia’s coronavirus lockdown ended on 13 April 2020 for infrastructure projects and on 27 April 2020 for cement production and residential and commercial construction. On 5 May 2020 Cementos Argos said that domestic demand was at 50% of pre-lockdown levels.

Mexico: Elementia’s first quarter sales were US$49.0m, down by 5.0% year-on year from US$52.0m in 2019. Group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) was US$20.4m, down by 7.0% from US$22.0m in the first quarter 2019. Cement volumes fell by 11% year-on-year to 1.08Mt from 1.22Mt.

The company suspended all operations in Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador from 20 March 2020 and in Colombia and El Salvador from 30 March 2020. It says that it has moved its 2020 strategic focus to ‘inventory reduction and sustained US cement growth.’

Colombia: Cemex Latam Holdings (CLH)’s net sales in the first quarter of 2020 were US$214m, down by 11% year-on-year compared to sales of US$240m in the same period of 2019. Operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) throughout the quarter declined by 12% year-on-year to US$46.0m from US$52.3m. Cement volumes over the period were 11% below their first-quarter 2019 level, however prices were 3% higher. Total debt decreased by 8% year-over-year, reaching US$766m as of March 2020.

Cemex Latam Holdings CEO Jesus Gonzalez 
said, “We came into 2020 with favourable demand momentum in Colombia, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador, and a stabilising trend in Costa Rica. The coronavirus outbreak began to impact on this in March 2020. With respect to capex, US$20.0m has been postponed until 2021. Also, members of CLH’s Board and senior leadership have agreed to voluntarily waive a percentage of their second quarter salaries. Other employees voluntarily deferred a percentage of their salaries for the period. I would like to thank my colleagues for their support in these challenging times.”

Colombia: Mexico-based Cemex has announced the resumption of operations at its 2.8Mt/yr Caracolito plant in Ibagué, Tolima Department on 13 April 2020. Noticias Financieras News has reported that Cemex Colombia will resume the supply of its products to ‘infrastructure and public works that cannot be suspended, as well as for emergency care projects and road projects.

Cemex will have to wait for the Colombian government to lift its coronavirus lockdown to restart supplies to customers.