Displaying items by tag: Europe

Cement cartels (or at least cases of cartel-like behaviour) have reared their ugly heads this week... again. In two different markets, Australia and Brazil, competition authorities are at various stages of taking major action against large proportions of their respective cement industries. In another, Europe, it is the cement producers that are taking on the authorities.

This week, the Australian Federal Court has found five producers guilty of agreeing anti-competitive contracts with regard to fly-ash supply contracts from power stations in the state of Victoria. Only Cement Australia Holdings was not accused. Penalties are to be determined at a later date – watch this space.

As drastic as the Australian situation may be, it is Brazil's anti-trust authority Cade that looks set to make the biggest 'splash' in a cement industry in 2014. On 13 March 2014 it was reported that a US$1.32bn fine, split over six cement producers, has been put on hold after the producers disputed a ruling that would see them lose an average 24% of their cement assets each. So big is this fine that it actually eclipses the US$1.1bn fine seen in India in 2012. In light of the amount of influence that they look set to lose, it now looks extremely likely that the producers will appeal. This sets the scene for indeterminably long waits for legal proceedings and more evidence to be collected. Whatever happens in Brazil, there will be major implications for its increasingly-concentrated cement market.

Elsewhere, in a strange inversion of the normal situation, in Europe it is the cement producers that are taking action. This week the European Court has rejected an appeal from eight major cement producers including Holcim, HeidelbergCement and Cemex subsidiaries with respect to the European Commission's handling of an anti-cartel investigation that began in 2008. That case saw anti-trust investigations start in 2010. Proceedings continue.

As stated previously in this column, cartel-like behaviour is not necessarily indicative of a formal cartel. There are innumerable factors that make every case different and, in each, proving actual collusion is very hard indeed. In the cement industry however, it appears that 'convictions' in cartel cases are easier to spot than in other sectors.

"The first thing for any new competition regulator is to go out and find the cement cartel. My experience of this subject is, it is always there, somewhere," wrote Richard Whish, a Professor of Law at King's College London in 2001. "The only countries in which I had been unable to find the cement cartel is where there is a national state-owned monopoly for cement."

The authorities will keep looking and producers, guilty or not, will continue to wait for their call.

Recovery in the European cement markets arrived slowly in 2013. Balance sheets at HeidelbergCement, Cemex, Italcementi, Vicat and Buzzi Unicem appear to have stalled into something less than the recovery that everybody wants. The picture is more stable in Western Europe but declining revenues have headed east.

The European Commission's Autumn 2013 Economic Forecast has summed it up well, predicting that the European Union's (EU) gross domestic product (GDP) would remain static in 2013. On the strength of the results seen so far that feels about right. The cement industry in Europe hasn't continued to decline but the 'recovery' is slow. Yet a recovery is happening on the strength of these financial results so far. Compared to some of the sales declines seen in 2012 this is good news.

With results from the big European-based cement producers Lafarge and Holcim due later in February 2014, here is a summary of the European situation.

HeidelbergCement's revenue has remained flat in 2013 at Euro13.9bn although its cement, clinker and ground-granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS) sales volumes have risen by 2.6% to 91.3Mt. Compare this with the 8.7% bounce in revenue from 2011 to 2012. By region, the problem areas have now shifted from losses in Western and Northern Europe to losses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Market pickup in the UK has driven this turnaround, despite diminished sales volumes in Germany.

Similarly, Cemex's sales have also remained flat at US$15.2bn. Both of its European areas have improved their sales, with sales losses only reported for the Northern Europe region. Again, sales in the UK drove overall business with France starting to improve too.

Italcementi had it tougher in 2013 with its sixth consecutive drop in revenue since 2008. Just like HeidelbergCement, the problem regions for Italcementi have shifted east in 2013 from Western Europe to the group's Emerging Europe, North Africa and Middle East area. However Italcementi is losing revenue in Western Europe faster than HeidelbergCement, mainly due to the poor Italian market.

Elsewhere, Vicat reported that its consolidated cement sales fell by 4% to Euro1.11bn. Sales decline lessened in France and the rest of Europe even saw sales rise by 4% to Euro427m. Buzzi Unicem saw its cement sales volumes remain static in 2013 at 27.4Mt.

Overall it may not feel great but it's better than the cement industry news for Europe we've been used to in recent years. With the European Commission Economic Forecast suggesting a 1.4% rise in GDP in 2014, the next 12 months look more promising.

Cemex's decision to head deeper into eastern Europe as part of the Cemex-Holcim asset swap announced this week suggests some nerve. Cement production levels started to fall in the region from 2012, according to Cembureau figures, with continued problems reported so far by the multinational cement producers in 2013. Cemex seems likely to lose money from the start with its new assets in the Czech Republic.

In more detail, Cemex will acquire all of Holcim's assets in the Czech Republic, which include a 1.1Mt/yr cement plant, four aggregates quarries and 17 ready-mix plants. In return Holcim will give Cemex Euro70m and Cemex will give Holcim its assets in western Germany including one cement plant and two grinding mills that encompass a total capacity of 2.5Mt/yr, one slag granulator, 22 aggregates quarries and 79 ready-mix plants.

Cemex must believe that it can wait out the recovery of the construction sector in eastern Europe or make savings from having a more easterly spread of assets. Certainly Cemex said in its press release on the asset swap that its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) would start to rise from US$20m to US$30m from 2014.

The question for the buyers at Cemex who considered this deal is whether the construction market has bottomed out in the Czech Republic yet. According to World Bank figures, following the 2008 financial crisis Czech Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to a low of US$197bn in 2009, rose again until 2011 but then fell to US$196bn in 2012. Currently the Czech National Bank is anticipating a further fall in growth in 2013. Meanwhile, data from a third quarter 2013 Czech construction sector analysis by CEEC Research reported that a drop of at least 4.7% was expected in 2013 with a follow-on decline of 2.7% in 2014.

Possibly one deal-maker for Cemex was the prospect of combined operations with Holcim in Spain across cement, aggregates and ready-mix. Similar to the Lafarge-Tarmac joint-venture in the UK, the move offers reduced risk in a declining western European market. How the Spanish competition authorities will respond remains to be seen. Elsewhere on the continent this week the decision by the Belgian Competition Council to fine the Belgian cement sector shows an example of behaviour the Spanish authorities will want to avoid.

Half-year results from some of the major global cement producers are starting to present a detour from the usual European doom-and-gloom and optimism for the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) of recent years.

Yes, Europe is dragging balance sheets down (particularly certain countries), but some indicators are starting to stabilise following a good second quarter. Very possibly the cost cutting programmes of the multinational cement producers are starting to kick in. Alternatively, perhaps these cement markets have finally bottomed out.

Lafarge has suffered a bad six months with cement sales down by 6%. However, its sales decline in Western Europe has slowed down with the worst news now coming from Central & Eastern Europe. Cemex has reported a better second quarter in 2013 with overall sales up by 4%. It too can show softened declines in its European territories. Italcementi and its subsidiary Ciments Français both saw revenues falling in the half year but either at a reduced rate or with a slowdown in the rate that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are declining.

Only HeidelbergCement's results have resisted any direct signs of an improvement in Europe. Overall revenue has remained stable for the half year with its profit up year-on-year. In Europe its revenue reduction has worsened to 4.7% for the half year. However it did observe a 'significant' improvement in cement sales in the UK.

Meanwhile, one of the cement industry's more reliable markets in recent years – India – is showing signs for concern.

As our news roundup this week reports, the country's largest standalone cement producer, UltraTech, had its profits drop year-on-year by 13.5% to US$111m for the most recent quarter and its net sales actually dropped slightly. Holcim has also been active in India with the announcement that it is simplifying its corporate structure to cut costs. In addition Lafarge reported that its market growth in India was 'subdued', considerably down from the 24% growth in cement sales seen in that country in the first half of 2012.

The news from UltraTech and Lafarge suggest that the rate of growth of the Indian cement industry is slowing. The unanswered question from Holcim's activity in India is whether they are doing it to counteract European losses or to counteract a loss of profitability in India.

Holcim's half-year results will make interesting reading when they are released in mid-August 2013 and may help to decide whether the worst is over in Europe.

Once again the winter weather was bad in Europe. Once again the major European cement producers reported a fall in sales. So what has changed between the first quarters of 2012 and 2013?

Lafarge's cement sales volumes in Western Europe for the first quarter of 2013 fell by 24% year-on-year, compared to an 11% drop in 2012. Holcim's decline in volumes stabilised, compared to a 13.2% drop in 2012. HeidelbergCement's volume decline increased slightly, from a drop of 8% in 2012 to one of 10% in 2013. Cemex didn't release sales volumes figures for cement but overall net sales in its Northern Europe region fell by 13% in 2013 compared to 11% in 2012. Italcementi's cement sales volumes maintained a steady decline in both the first quarters of 2012 and 2013 at about 19%.

Even with the reduced number of working days for the quarter in 2013 taken into account, things are not looking good. Generally the results fit the prediction made by the UK Mineral Products Association (in the UK at least) that construction activity remains subdued in 2013 so far.

Profitability measures for the European divisions of the big producers, such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), reinforce the gloomy outlook, suggesting that most of the cost cutting exercises aren't having much effect on investor balance sheets quite yet. Lafarge's EBITDA in Western Europe fell by 94% to Euro5m. HeidelbergCement's loss before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased to Euro91m. Cemex's operating EBITDA fell from US$55m in 2012 to a loss of US$17m in 2013. Italcementi's EBITDA decreased to Euro12.8m.

Only Holcim reversed this trend, growing its EBITDA by 43% to Euro23.5m. The Holcim Leadership Journey appears to be working. Although the sale of a 25% stake in Cement Australia certainly helped.

Elsewhere, we have an additional story at add to last week's focus on Iraq, with the announcement that Mondi has opened an industrial bags plant in Iraq. It's based in Sulaimaniyah in northern Iraq near to the new Sinoma-Lafarge project that we reported on.

Finally, the news that the Competition Commission of India has been asked to investigate a complaint against a Chinese waste heat recovery vendor raises tensions between the world's largest two cement producers. The story echoes similar trends in the gypsum wallboard business in April 2013 where a selective anti-dumping duty was imposed on imports from China, Indonesia, Thailand and the UAE. Watch this space.

With the annual results for 2012 in from Lafarge, Holcim and CRH we now return to look at how the European markets coped.

Holcim summed up the mood perfectly in its media release on its annual results for 2012. First it pushed the big positive (net sales up overall) but then finished its first (!) sentence with: '...despite the difficult economic environment in Europe.'

Overall in Europe, Lafarge saw its cement volumes fall by 9% to 29.6Mt from 32.5Mt. Notably sales volumes fell significantly in Spain and Greece, by 26% and 37% respectively.

Holcim saw its cement volumes fall by 2% in Europe to 26.3Mt from 26.8Mt. There were specific country figures from Holcim but it did comment that the 'severe crisis' in southern Europe had 'contaminated' economies further north such as a France, Benelux, Germany and Switzerland.

CRH was less candid about its cement business in Europe although it did report that its sales revenues fell by 10% to Euro2.69bn in 2012 from Euro2.99bn in 2011. Notable losses occurred in Poland (11% volume decline), Ireland (17% decline) and Spain (30% decline).

These figures compare against a 4% decline in volumes in Western and Northern Europe to 22.1Mt from 21.3Mt by HeidelbergCement, a 13% drop in overall net sales to Euro3.05bn in Cemex's Northern Europe section and a 16% drop in volumes to 16Mt from Italcementi in its Central Western Europe region.

The question to ask at this point is how HeidelbergCement and Holcim managed to suffer smaller losses compared to everybody else. Less exposure to southern Europe is one answer. Depressingly though they both suffered similar drops in profit indicators such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to the others (20% and 33% respectively).

Both Holcim and CRH are expecting continued tough conditions in Europe in 2013. However, both companies are mildly optimistic that the worst has passed, with talk of the work of the European Central Bank supporting peripheral Eurozone economies showing some effect. Lafarge doesn't even mention Europe in its outlook.

As mentioned in Global Cement Weekly #87 on 13 February 2013, EU regional GDP growth is forecast to become positive in 2013. Everybody is going to be watching the European quarterly results for the cement majors in 2013 very carefully indeed. In the meantime all every cement producer with a presence in Europe can do is to carry on cutting costs.

Three of the big multinational cement producers - HeidelbergCement, Cemex and Italcementi - have already released preliminary reports for 2012. Here's what they tell us.

Geographically, performances in the Americas and Asia propped up balance sheets. Europe, however, continued to ruin the party in 2012.

In its Western and Northern Europe section HeidelbergCement saw a 3.9% decrease in sales of cement and clinker to 21.3Mt from 22.1Mt in 2011. However this was still higher than the sales in 2010 of 19.7Mt.

Cemex's Northern Europe section witnessed a 13% drop in overall net sales to Euro3.05bn. Its Mediterranean section did worse, with a 15% drop in net sales to Euro1.08bn. Both declines were similar to the falls in cement volumes in these regions. Italcementi watched its Central Western Europe region plummet by 16.1% to 16Mt.

To demonstrate the comparative exposure to Western Europe, 25% of HeidelbergCement's sale volumes came from Western Europe and 35% of Italcementi's sale volumes came from Western Europe. Cemex hasn't released any figures for sales of cement in its preliminary results but overall in cement, aggregates and concrete, 37% of its sales came from its two European regions.

HeidelbergCement noted that demand for construction materials remained stable in Germany and Northern Europe. However it weakened in the UK and the Netherlands. By contrast Cemex noted a decrease in cement volumes for the year in Germany although it became stable by the fourth quarter. For the UK it had the same experience as HeidelbergCement, with a similar downturn in France and Poland. In its Mediterranean region Cemex recorded a whopping 40% decrease in cement volumes. Although light on detail, Italcementi pointed out a 25% drop in cement consumption in Italy and a 8% drop in France and Belgium.

In November 2012 the European Commission forecast that gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) in 2012. Broadly in line with the national situations reported above, Germany's GDP is forecast to have risen in 2012; the UK's, the Netherlands', Belgium, Italy and Spain's GDPs looks to have fallen in 2012. Curiously though, both France and Poland were forecast to have improving GDPs in 2012. HeidelbergCement and Cemex's experiences suggest that this didn't happen in the French construction industry. The (next) light at the end of the tunnel for 2013 is that EU regional GDP growth is forecast to become positive again.

With Lafarge and Holcim due to release their annual report for 2012 in late February 2012, we'll revisit this topic in a few weeks time.

Europe: Koen Coppenholle took over as the new Chief Executive of Cembureau on 1 July 2012. He follows Dr Jean-Marie Chandelle, who retired at the end of June 2012.

Following a distinguished legal career, Koen Coppenholle has been Head of European Affairs for ArcelorMittal in Brussels since November 2007. Between September 2000 and November 2007, he was Senior Counsel European Affairs with General Electric Europe in Brussels. Coppenholle joined the Cembureau team on 2 April 2012 to help to ensure a smooth transition.

Jean-Marie Chandelle has held the position of Chief Executive of Cembureau since 1996. A qualified lawyer, with a Master of Law and a PhD, Chandelle has held numerous positions in his native Belgium and abroad.