Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: Credit rating agency ICRA expects that cement demand growth will fall to 7% year-on-year in the first quarter of the 2019 – 2020 financial year from 13% in the previous year. It has blamed this on a slowdown in infrastructure projects due to the general election and resulting labour shortages. However, higher cement prices and lower input costs - including power, fuel and distribution expenses – are forecast to improve profits. Cement consumption is predicted to increase in the third quarter due to housing demand and pickup in infrastructure schemes.

The agency also said that around 18 – 20Mt/yr of cement production capacity would be added in the 2019 – 2020 year. This will be from a variety of integrated and grinding projects. This is below the projected demand growth of 24Mt/yr but overall sector production overcapacity is expected to continue at around 71%.

Brazil: Data from the National Union of Cement Industry (SNIC) shows that cement sales rose slightly to 12.7Mt in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 12.6Mt in the same period in 2018. Regional sales fell slightly to 6Mt in the southeast of the country including the major markets of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. However, most of the other regions reported growth, particularly the centre-west. SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said that March 2019’s performance was better than expected and that it was forecasting growth of 3% in 2019.

Indonesia: Indocement is aiming for 4% growth in sales year-on-year to around US$1.12bn in 2019 due to sluggish cement consumption. This compares to 5% growth in revenue in 2018. The subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement expects demand to increase in the second half of 2019 following elections, according to the Jakarta Post newspaper. It predicts that cement consumption will be driven by government infrastructure projects and the construction of residential projects and buildings. It plans to spend up to US$70m towards setting up a quarry in West Java and completing new cement terminals.

The cement producer is also preparing to increase its thermal substitution rate with alternative fuels like refuse-derived fuel (RDF). This follows a 50% rise in production costs due to coal in 2018. In September 2018 to agreed to buy 500t of RDF from the West Java government.

Germany: HeidelbergCement expects increasing sales volumes for its cement, aggregate and ready-mix concrete products in 2019. It plans to raise its prices to regain margins it lost in 2018. The building materials producer also intends to continue the cost cutting programme it started in November 2018. It said that energy cost inflation, improvements in Indonesia, Europe and North America, and new state infrastructure projects should result in a ‘solid result improvement.’

“In view of our strong positioning in raw material reserves and production sites in attractive locations, the unique vertical integration, our excellent product portfolio, and our industry-leading margin management, we believe we are well equipped for the opportunities and challenges of 2019,” said Bernd Scheifele, chairman of the managing board of HeidelbergCement. He added that the group will continue the digitalisation process of its entire value chain in order to further improve operational excellence.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) forecasts that cement consumption will grow by 2.3% year-on-year in 2019. It is a slight drop from the rate of 2.6% it previously forecast in November 2018.

“While there are several phenomena that confront the economy in the next two years, the PCA believes the economy is strong,” said Ed Sullivan, PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. He added that rising interest rates are expected to drag on economic growth, leading to a slowdown in private construction. Cement consumption is expected to slow as a result.

The PCA also said in its Spring Forecast that rising state deficits had forced many states to adjust budgets, reduce costs, and re-prioritise spending. Infrastructure spending had been falling in priority as a consequence. In the medium term the PCA expects cement consumption growth to soften until 2021. It then thinks that President Donald Trump’s supplemental infrastructure initiative will arrive in 2022 leading back to increased cement consumption.

Saudi Arabia: Demand for cement is forecast to fall in 2019. A report by Al Rajhi Capital expects this due to reduced government spending on infrastructure projects and growing construction costs, according to Trade Arabia. Cement producers will focus on pricing rather than volume in this environment. Exports are also expected to increase. Local sales volumes of cement decreased by 13% year-on-year in 2018.

Thailand: Fitch Ratings forecasts that demand for cement will rise due to recovery in the private construction sector. It is expected to grow by over 5% in 2019, according to the Bangkok Post. Cement sales rose by 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, the first quarterly growth in 10 quarters. Data from the Office of Industrial Economics showed that this was followed by a rise of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The forecast said that local cement producers were expanding regionally due to domestic oversupply and a profitability gap between domestic sales and exports. Government infrastructure projects are expected to continue to drive sales, with nearly US$100bn planned on projects from 2018 to 2026.

Peru: Research from Scotiabank forecasts that cement consumption will grow by 6.5% in 2019 due to construction sector growth. The market will be supported by both private and public investment, according to the Gestión newspaper. Private investment will be supported by the mining industry. Infrastructure projects including Line 2 of the Lima Metro, the expansion of the Jorge Chávez Airport, the Port of San Martín, the Port of Salaverry and others are expected to support public investment. Local consumption of cement grew by 3.7% year-on-year in 2018, the highest rate of growth since 2013.

US: Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, forecasts that cement consumption will grow ‘moderately’ in 2019 alongside similar performance in the general US economy. However, he flagged gradual increases in interest rates, the aging recovery and accompanied trade issues as possible factors slowing down the cement market. Sullivan made his comments at the World of Concrete event in Las Vegas, where he revealed details from his forthcoming spring forecast.

“The US economy’s long run of growth should continue in 2019,” said Sullivan. “Since 2011 we have averaged 2 million jobs being created each year and the unemployment rate is below 4%. Despite the headlines, the impact in the near term of the rising interest rates and inflation are relatively benign. Simply put, fundamentals like these take a long time to unwind.”

China: China National Building Material (CNBM) says that its profit will rise ‘substantially’ in 2018. It has attributed this to rising cement prices.