Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: Ratings agency Crisil forecasts that the operating profitability of cement producers will decline by around 15% year-on-year to around US$11/t in the 2023 financial year due to growing fuel costs. However, it added that a 17% growth in cement demand in the quarter from April to June 2022 would mitigate the impact of this. It expects that growth in the cement market in the 2023 year will be driven by non-residential sectors such as infrastructure development and commercial projects. By region, growth is anticipated to increase fastest in eastern regions, followed by central and southern regions but the northern and western regions could be more subdued. It added that any significant delay in the reduction of petcoke and coal prices or any company that was unable to increase its cement prices would add further pressure to the market.

South Africa: PPC says that the consumption of cement in South Africa will ‘remain subdued’ without new ‘significant’ infrastructure investments. The producer forecast demand growth of 2.5% year-on-year in 2022. It concluded that growth will likely not suffice to offset its cost inflation.

The company said “PPC will continue its efforts to counter input price inflation through price adjustments, operational efficiencies and improved industrial performance.”

Pakistan: Cherat Cement expects cement consumption in Pakistan to fall by 3 – 4% year-on-year in the 2023 financial year, which will end on 30 June 2023. Amid the general decline, the company foresees a slight rise in areas devastated by recent flooding with the onset of repair and rebuilding works during the second half of the financial year. Exports are expected to fall by 20%, with prices remaining level while costs increase due to the high price of imported coal.

Pakistan Business News has reported that Cherat Cement is reappraising the investment cost and planned commercial operation date of its upcoming 8000 – 9000t/day new cement plant. It previously valued the project at US$158 – 173m.

Vietnam: Cement producers and exporters will pay an additional 5 – 10% tariff on their exports of cement and clinker from 1 January 2023. Viet Nam News has reported that the move aims to bring down local cement prices by increasing supply in the country. These have risen over the past six months, while export prices have remained level.

The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) says that its members are struggling to increase exports in a highly competitive export market. In the six months up to the end of August 2022, China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Taiwan all reduced their imports of Vietnamese cement. The decline included a ‘substantial’ reduction of imports by China and the Philippines. Exporters faced logistical difficulties in shipping cement to the Philippines, while China’s consumption dropped due to new Covid-19 restrictions and low residential construction activity there.

The VNCA forecasts cement production of 108Mt in 2022, against a national demand of 65Mt. It projected that a series of infrastructure projects will bolster domestic consumption between 2022 and 2025.

India: JK Cement’s consolidated sales were US$272m in the first quarter of its 2023 financial year, up by 33% year-on-year from US$205m. The company sold 3.56Mt of cement, up by 18% from 3.02Mt in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year. Its costs per tonne rose to US$62.32/t from US$51.32/t. This restricted the group’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth to 0.1% year-on-year, at US$50.3m, compared to US$50.2m one year previously.

JK Cement forecast 10% year-on-year cement volumes growth in the 2023 financial year as a whole. It said that it expects to accelerate its rate of sales growth from September 2022. Its focus throughout the financial year will be on capturing new markets and increasing its blended cement share.

China: West China Cement’s preliminary results indicate a profit drop of 40 – 45% year-on-year in the first half of 2022 to US$85.6 – 93.4m from US$156m. The group said that its finance costs rose by US$10.8m, while its foreign exchange gains were just US$4.05m in the half, compared to US$51.2m in the first half of 2021.

Australia: James Hardie recorded sales of US$1bn in the first quarter of its 2023 financial year, up by 19% year-on-year from US$843m in the first quarter of its 2022 financial year. Its net profit was US$163m, up by 34% from US$121m. The group increased its North America fibre cement board sales by 28% to US$740m, its Asia Pacific fibre cement board sales by 9% to US$140m and its Europe building products sales by 7% to US$112. James Hardie launched its new European subsidiary James Hardie Fiber Cement Europe during the quarter.

James Hardie lowered its full-year adjusted net profit forecast to US$730 – 780m from US$740 – 820m. Interim chief executive officer Harold Wiens said "The current calendar year has seen the macro-economic environment change around us quite significantly, with unprecedented levels of inflation, global supply chain disruptions and a war in Europe. The current macro-economic environment is not only creating uncertainty for the housing markets in all three regions we do business in, but it is also putting pressure on our fiscal year 2023 financial results due to increased input and freight costs. That said, we are confident we will be able to deliver growth above market and strong returns in fiscal year 2023, and that is reflected in our updated guidance we provided today, which at its midpoint represents 22% growth in adjusted net income versus the prior year."

Poland: Poland produced 9.3Mt of cement in the first half of 2022, up by 8.6% year-on-year from the same period in 2021. The Polish Association of Cement Manufacturers (SPC) recorded an 11% increase in national cement consumption to 6.8Mt during the reporting period. The Institute of Economic Forecasts and Analyses has estimated that full-year demand will reach 20Mt in 2022.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded sales of US$337m in the first quarter of the 2023 financial year, up by 3.7% year-on-year from US$325m in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year. Despite this, the company reported a loss for the quarter of US$8.23m, compared to a net profit of US$20.5m in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year. For the first half of the current 2023 financial year, Sumitomo Osaka Cement expects to deliver sales of US$726m and a net profit of US$3.71m.

Sri Lanka: Tokyo Cement Group increased its turnover to US$45.2m in the first quarter of it 2023 financial year, up by 53% year-on-year from first-quarter 2022 financial year levels. A shortage of imported raw materials and the country’s on-going fuel crisis hampered local cement demand. The group’s cement sales volumes declined during the quarter, while its cost of sales increased by 24% year-on-year. ‘Steep’ currency depreciation compounded the effects of the increase in expenses. Nonetheless, the company recorded a profit of US$1.48m.

The producer said “Tokyo Cement has taken many proactive measures to minimise the impact of economic downturn on the group's performance. Anticipating a challenging environment, the group has reforecasted demand, rescheduled sourcing and production plans, and adjusted cash flows accordingly. The group has deployed drastic cost saving measures, streamlined operations, and postponed capital expenditure. While the short to medium term economic landscape remains uncertain, Tokyo Cement has a proven track record of resilience and resurgence, and is committed to rebuilding the nation, stronger than ever before.”