Displaying items by tag: GCW674

The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km². All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).

A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.

Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.

In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.

Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.

Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.

Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.

Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).¹ One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.

Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.² This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.

In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.

In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO₂ emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.

Based on the average specific CO₂ emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO₂eq/€.³ By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO₂eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO₂eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO₂ emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.⁴

The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.

As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO₂ global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.

References

1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#

2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index

4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/

US: Gabriel Carrero has taken on the role of Chief Commercial Officer (COO) at Carbon Limit, developer of the CO₂-sequestering concrete additive CaptureCrete. Carrero previously served as Senior Vice President, Sales & Marketing at fellow additive developer CarbonCure, and has held directorial roles in multiple companies in the cement and concrete chemicals innovation space, including working as COO of Sysdyne Technologies and NITROcrete and as Global Director, Specialty Construction Chemicals at GCP Applied Technologies. Carrero holds a Mechanical Engineering degree from the Centre Technological University (UNITEC) and an MBA from the University of Carabobo, both in Venezuela.

China: Anhui Conch Cement recorded a decline in its net profit of 49% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, Reuters has reported. The group’s Building Materials Industry business reported a 21% year-on-year decline in its sales to US$4.71bn. Its Cement business also recorded declining sales, by 23% to US$3.87bn.

Ireland: Sabancı Holding subsidiary Çimsa Çimento has signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 95% stake in Mannok. Reuters has reported the total enterprise value of Mannok as €330m. In determining the eventual purchase price, Çimsa Çimento says that it will make adjustments for any debt or related items. The deal marks the group’s entry into Ireland and the UK, where Mannok also distributes cement.

Mannok chair Adrian Barden said "Çimsa and the broader Sabancı group are a superb fit for Mannok as new long-term strategic owners, with excellent sustainability credentials and know-how. The group is steeped in cement manufacture and building products and, as a diverse conglomerate, it also has interests in retail and food, important sectors for our packaging business. We are very pleased that Sabancı has endorsed the Mannok brand and has agreed to back local management's plans to accelerate our sustainability and growth ambitions.”

Çimsa Çimento CEO Umut Zenar said "We believe this agreement marks the beginning of a new era for Mannok. At Çimsa, our model is to back great local businesses and management, and we look forward to creating new employment opportunities in the region as we support Mannok's continuing growth and sustainability ambitions. Given its border location, Mannok has unique access to UK and EU markets, and we see it as a key stepping stone in expanding our footprint in Western Europe. For Mannok staff, joining the Sabancı ecosystem will also present a world of opportunity for career development and progression and exposure to innovation in product development, sustainability and digitisation."

Kenya: Savannah Clinker has offered to acquire Bamburi Cement outright for US$197m, 8% higher than an existing bid for the company of US$183m from Tanzania-based Amsons Industries. Business Daily News has reported that Savannah Clinker requires a minimum stake of 60% in order to finalise the deal. The company said that it could aim to complete the deal before March 2025.

Savannah Clinker owns an upcoming clinker plant and limestone mine in Kitui. Its owner Benson Sande Ndeta formerly held a majority of shares in Savannah Cement, which went into administration in mid-2023.

Kyrgyzstan: China-based Yunsheng Mining (Yunnan) and China Yunsheng Group have signed an agreement with the Kyrgyz government to build a cement plant in Tyup, Issyk-Kul region. Business World Magazine has reported that the partners will also establish a hydroelectric power plant next to the plant. Yunsheng Mining (Yunnan) said that the project will help to promote a new model of economic cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and China, based on the integration of commodities and energy.

Kyrgyzstan: The government says that construction of the upcoming 1Mt/yr Tash-Kumyr cement plant in Jalal-Abad region is 60% complete, and the plant is on track for commissioning in 2025. Central Asia News has reported that the facility will employ 250 – 300 people.

India: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has opened a 2Mt/yr grinding plant in Guna, Madhya Pradesh, Mint News has reported. Together with a neighbouring firearms plant, the Adani Group subsidiary invested US$417m in the project.

Pakistan: Fauji Cement recorded sales of US$287m in the 2024 financial year, which ended on 30 June 2024. This corresponds to year-on-year growth of 18% from US$244m in the previous financial year. The company’s operating costs rose by 14% to US$195m. Nonetheless, it succeeded in growing its net profit by 10%, to US$29.5m.

India: JK Cement plans to invest US$584m in its construction of a new cement plant in the Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan. IM News has reported that the producer has already secured environmental clearance for the upcoming plant.