Displaying items by tag: Outlook

Switzerland: The first nine months of 2025 yielded a 2% year-on-year decline in sales for Holcim, from US$15.3bn to US$15bn. Nonetheless, the company succeeded in raising its recurring earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) by 2% to US$2.86bn. It recorded year-on-year organic growth of 3% in sales and 11% in EBIT. Holcim noted the centrality of sustainability in its growth in the period. Its sales of ECOPlanet reduced-CO₂ cement rose from 32% to 35% of total cement sales, while its sales of ECOPact reduced-CO₂ concrete sales from 26% to 31% of total ready-mix concrete sales. Its use of construction-demolition materials (CDM) in production rose by 20% year-on-year.

During the period, Holcim continued its on-going diversification through the acquisition of Germany-based walling systems producer Xella. At the same time, the company’s cementitious division continued to target ‘profitable growth in highly attractive markets,’ as exemplified through its Australia-based joint venture Cement Australia’s acquisition of BCG Cement. Across all divisions, Holcim closed 14 value-accretive transactions in the period. It spun off Holcim North America and sold its Nigerian cement business and Iraq-based Karbala Cement Manufacturing.

CEO Miljan Gutovic thanked Holcim’s 45,000 employees, saying "We are delivering on Holcim's vision to be the leading partner for sustainable construction. With accelerating net sales growth in the third quarter of 2025, we delivered strong profitable growth for the first nine months of the year, with a 10% increase in recurring EBIT in local currency and an industry-leading margin of 19%. Margin expansion was driven by our high-value strategy, scaling up our sustainable offering to meet customer demand, and accelerating decarbonisation and circular construction for profitable growth.” Gutovic confirmed Holcim’s full-year guidance for 2025, namely: recurring EBIT growth of 6 – 10% in local currency, with a margin of above 18% and free cash flow before leases of US$2.51bn.

India: Sagar Cements reported sales of US$146m in the first half of the 2026 financial year, up by 22% year-on-year. Its costs also rose steeply, by 11%, to US$149m. As such, its loss before interest and taxation was US$2.58m. This represents a successful reduction of 82%, from US$14.4m in the first half of the 2025 financial year. Sagar Cements proceeded with expansion projects at its Andhra Cements and Jeerabad cement plants ‘as per plan.’ Subsidiary Andhra Cements has since commissioned a six-stage preheater at its Dachepalli Plant in Andhra Pradesh on 23 October 2025. By the end of the 2026 financial year, Sagar Cements expects to commission a 4.35MW waste heat recovery plant at its Gudipadu plant in Andhra Pradesh and complete a 50% capacity expansion at its Jeerabad plant in Madhya Pradesh, up to 1.5Mt/yr. The group forecast full-year sales volumes of 6Mt.

Capital Markets News has reported that Joint Managing Director Sreekanth Reddy said "Our focus on operational efficiency and cost optimisation helped us sustain healthy margins even in a softer pricing environment. EBITDA/tonne remained resilient, supported by higher plant utilisation levels and disciplined cost management across the value chain. We have maintained our growth momentum in the second quarter of the 2025 financial year, despite the seasonal impact of the monsoon. As expected, realisations softened during the quarter; however, the overall operating environment remained stable, with costs remaining low.” Looking ahead to the current, second half of the financial year, Reddy said "With the monsoon season now behind us, we expect demand momentum to pick up, led by the continued push in infrastructure, housing and other construction activities.”

India: Aditya Birla Group subsidiary UltraTech Cement will invest US$1.23bn to grow its cement production capacity by 10% to 241Mt/yr. The company’s board has approved new plant projects and expansions amounting to 22.8Mt/yr of additional capacity, scheduled to begin coming online from the start of the 2028 financial year on 1 April 2027.

Chair Kumar Mangalam Birla said “The latest capacity expansion follows US$5.69bn invested in the past five years. The investment reflects the company’s confidence in the Indian economy and the scale of its infrastructure ambitions. When capital is deployed strategically, it energises ecosystems, deepens industrial linkages and creates durable employment. As India enters a transformative era of infrastructure and economic development, UltraTech is well-positioned to meet the rising demand for cement.”

The second quarter of 2025 saw Russian GDP growth slow to 1.1% year-on-year, with a revised full-year growth forecast of 0.9%.¹ An economy bulked up on injections of military spending (budgeted at 33% of GDP in 2025)² since the invasion of Ukraine may slowly be keeling over. Faced with this eventuality, the Russian cement industry will likely be reviewing strategies not to be dragged down with the rest of the economy.

Prior to the release of the latest economic data, Russian construction had been forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% in 2026 – 2029. Drivers included anticipated investments in oil and gas, transport, airports and renewable energy.

Purely in cement terms, the data no longer appear to corroborate this outlook. Market leader Cemros expects total domestic demand to drop from 67Mt in 2024, by 10 – 15% year-on-year, to 57 – 60.3Mt in 2025. In the first half of the year, Russia consumed 28.4Mt of cement, just 4% above production volumes of 27.2Mt in the same period. Cemros cited ‘declining cement consumption’ to account for its upcoming instigation of a four-day working week at its plants across Russia from October 2025.

On 12 August 2025, Cemros spoke out about a threat to the interests of the domestic industry: increased imports from Belarus. It said that Belarus’ three-plant industry is supplying Russia with cement at a rate equivalent to the combined production volumes of two-to-three cement plants. Time to cap them, it told the government, suggesting a ceiling of 1.5Mt/yr.
The producer may have received a shock on 18 August 2025, when Belarus-based Krasnoselskstroymaterialy announced an upcoming US$100m upgrade to its 700,000t/yr Vaŭkavysk cement plant in Grobno Oblast, Belarus.

By that time, the Russian cement association, Soyuzcement, had already called for an anti-dumping investigation into all cement imports. It expects that import volumes of 3.74Mt in 2024 may rise to 5Mt/yr ‘in the near-term future.’

Lingering behind these discussions is the fact of high operating costs, partly precipitated by Russia’s continuing burden of international sanctions.

Here, the cement sector’s hopes are riding on a very particular marketing campaign: that of President Vladimir Putin on the global diplomatic circuit. He must sell his war (or peace on his terms) in a way that fends off increased international sanctions or support for Ukraine. Existing sanctions were on show at the Alaska Summit in Anchorage, US, on 15 August 2025, where the Russian leader made his pitch to US President Donald Trump – including a request for de-sanctioning, alongside various proposed punishment measures against Ukraine. Before travelling back to Moscow, the Russian delegation reportedly had to offer to pay cash for aeroplane fuel.³

Though President Trump did not secure a ceasefire, he nonetheless held back from making good on threatened new sanctions, and rated the Alaska Summit ‘10/10.’⁴ Putin might be equally pleased with the inconclusive outcome as precisely the goal of all his obfuscations. For Russia’s cement producers, costs won’t suddenly rise, but nor will they come down any time soon.

Far from sitting idly by, the industry is seeking new ways to actualise the value of its product. On 20 August 2025, Soyuzcement hosted a meeting of nine producers and four retail chains to strategise ways to increase sales of bagged cement. It will be subject to mandatory digital labelling from 1 October 2025. Discussions included the possibility of batch labelling of bags on the pallet for ease of scanning at retail outlets.

For now, producers’ online media spaces give the impression of work continuing as usual. On 18 August 2025, Cemros announced a US$186,000 renovation of buildings at its Mikhailovsk building materials plant in Volgograd Oblast.

The cement business in Russia is big, established and diffuse. Transformation has been its defining feature in the 33 years since the fall of the USSR, including in the relatively stable latter decades of that period. Should macroeconomic or geopolitical events overtake it once again, we can expect some shapeshifting – but also survival.

References

1. Reuters, ‘Russia's GDP growth slows to 1.1% in Q2, says Rosstat,’ 13 August 2025, www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-gdp-growth-slows-11-q2-says-rosstat-2025-08-13/

2. Global Data, ‘Russia Construction Market Size,’ 30 June 2025, www.globaldata.com/store/report/russia-construction-market-analysis/

3. Spiegel, ‘Russen boten Rubio zufolge Barzahlung für Betankung ihrer Flugzeuge an,’ 18 August 2025, www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/trump-putin-gipfel-russen-boten-offensichtlich-barzahlung-fuer-betankung-ihrer-flugzeuge-an-a-fdd9303c-546a-43aa-89dd-4f746b8e9df3

4. Focus, ‘Jäger deutlich: "Putin verkauft Trump eine Illusion - und hat ihn jetzt in der Hand",’ 16 August 2025, www.focus.de/politik/ausland/jaeger-putin-braucht-trump-nicht-zu-fuerchten-er-hat-trump-jetzt-in-der-hand_67785013-a14b-485c-9a4a-51755ec483fa.html

Mexico: Cement consumption fell by 8 – 10% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, according to José María Barroso Martínez, CEO of Cementos Moctezuma. He attributed the drop to factors such as the change of government in Mexico, the US government's tariff policy, a decrease in small-scale private works and on-going negotiations towards a replacement for the United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) for North American free trade, among other factors.

In an interview with Grupo Reforma News, Martínez said “Cement is the first variable that moves when the economy accelerates or decelerates. In the second half of 2025 we can achieve additional volumes to correct the trend and close the year similar 2024, when the industry reached close to 42Mt sold."

India: Management guidance for Indian cement demand growth in the 2026 financial year for ‘most companies’ in the sector was 6 – 7% year-on-year.

In the 2025 financial year, UltraTech Cement and JK Cement raised their cement sales volumes by 17% and 15% year-on-year respectively, due to to demand recovery and the effects of new acquisitions. Ambuja Cement’s volumes grew by 13%, while Dalmia Cement Bharat’s fell by 2% and Ramco Cements’ by 5%.

The Business Standard newspaper has reported that the all-India cement capacity ended the 2025 financial year at 655Mt/yr, up by 5% year-on-year. 60Mt/yr-worth of new cement production capacity is due to come online later in the 2026 financial year, which would increase that figure by a further 9%.

North America: Switzerland-based Holcim has announced the name for its upcoming spin-off of its North American operations: Amrize. Amrize will operate as an independent public company and a leader in the North American building materials sector ‘from foundation to rooftop.’ Holcim says that the new name combines the business’ values and vision of ‘ambition’ and ‘rising.’ A spin-off on the New York Stock Exchange and SIX Swiss Exchange is scheduled for completion before 30 June 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Holcim Chair and designated Chair and CEO of Amrize Jan Jenisch said "This is an exciting time for construction in North America, with the ongoing modernisation of infrastructure, the reshoring of manufacturing and the opportunity to bridge the housing gap with the most advanced building solutions. With our planned spin-off of Amrize, we aim to be the partner of choice for our North American customers and unlock value for all our stakeholders.”

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement's sales declined by 0.8% year-on-year to US$1.09bn in the first nine months of the 2025 financial year. Nonetheless, the producer succeeded in raising its pre-tax profit, by 16%, to US$44.9m. The company forecasts full-year sales of US$1.47bn (up by 0.6%) and profit of US$54.4m (down by 2%), maintaining previous estimates.

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) has forecast a 5% year-on-year rise in its full-year revenues due to economic revival and the government’s current stimulus package. President and CEO Thammasak Sethaudom said that increased customer purchasing power in Vietnam will raise SCG’s local cement and building material sales

SCG’s additional focuses will be on entering the Australia and North America markets and developing its high value-added products segment.

Vietnam: The general director of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM), Nguyen Thanh Tung, says that Vietnam will suffer continued cement overcapacity amid high production costs in 2025. Full-year production is forecast at 125Mt, 96% greater than an expected domestic demand of 63.5Mt. Việt Nam News has reported that Vietnam’s cement exports face an on-going investigation in Taiwan, and are already subject to anti-dumping duties in the Philippines.

VICEM aims to raise its domestic clinker sales volumes by 8% year-on-year to 18Mt, in order to generate sales of US$1.16bn. To this end, Tung urged the government to adopt cement reinforcement in roadbuilding, as well as lifting the export tax on cement.