Global Cement Newsletter

Issue: GCW446 / 11 March 2020

Headlines


Announcements from two very different countries serve to highlight the global cement sector’s on-going and seemingly intractable overcapacity issues this week.

First up, India, the world’s largest democracy and second-largest cement market, will reportedly struggle to exceed 70% capacity utilisation in the forthcoming 2020-2021 fiscal year, according to the credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil. In the same week, however, we have heard that UltraTech Cement will launch a 3.5Mt/yr capacity expansion at its Bhogasamudam plant in Andhra Pradesh, while ACC committed to launching a 2.5Mt/yr plant in Chandrapur, Maharashtra early last week. In February 2020 Deccan Cements firmed up plans to expand its Mahankaligudem plant in Telengana and JSW wants to turn its Bilakalagudur plant into a 6Mt/yr beast. Back in January 2020. Shree Cement launched ambitious plans to spend US$1.3bn on upgrades in the period to 2023. With Indian capacity estimated to hit 500Mt/yr by the close of 2020, what do all of these producers know that ICRA et al don’t?

Second on the list is centrally-planned Vietnam, the world’s third-largest producer, having produced 96.5Mt of cement in 2019. Here, long-standing excessive capacity is looking increasingly ridiculous following a massive collapse in export sales in January and February 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. This, of course, continues to affect cement producers and users alike.

Just today, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce a whopping 103Mt of cement this year. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt. A 2.5Mt/yr plant in Tân Thắng Commune in the central province of Nghệ, and a 4.6Mt/yr plant in Bỉm Sơn Commune, Thanh Hóa, will come online in 2020, further adding to the country’s capacity. Exports were touted as the saviour of the sector back in January 2020. This assertion may now have to be revisited.

The drivers behind the overcapacity are different in each country. Indian producers have a long history of capacity addition in order to maintain or improve their market share. Standing still is tantamount to walking (or even running) backwards, so the biggest producers (and those that want to become big producers) tend to go ‘over the top’ with their expansion aims. Market forces eventually catch up with the smaller players, which find themselves bought up or shut down. This has the seemingly inevitable effect of maintaining low capacity utilisation rates.

In Vietnam, the overcapacity is due to central targets, which, as noted previously, are an entirely alien concept for cement producers across much of the rest of the world. As Vietnam’s obsession with high cement production has developed, it has become hooked on exports, entering a void recently vacated by Chinese exports. It often sells at scarcely-believable prices and now, with the introduction of the coronavirus into the mix, even these seem to be too high. After all, Vietnam’s cement association cannot ‘set targets’ for cement demand in other countries.

So… how to reduce capacity? There are two examples, again from different types of market. China has, of course, reduced its overcapacity massively to eliminate outdated capacity and improve the country’s environmental performance. This has been possible due to orders from the top of government. The other example can be found in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has finally found its teeth, with the oldest and least efficient plants now feeling the financial bite of their CO2 emissions.

It remains to be seen whether the collapse of the export market will force the Vietnamese cement sector to rationalise its inventory. From a market-based mindset it is clear that it should follow China’s lead. India, meanwhile, has a massive overcapacity that market forces seem slow (or indeed unable) to clear. The EU route may be more applicable here, but one might expect resistance from cement producers. Also, the development and demographic differences between India and Europe are stark, indicating that there may be a need, at some point in the future, for 500Mt/yr of capacity. The Indian majors are counting on this and laying the groundwork for a step-change in the future. Indeed, in a few years, 500Mt/yr may look vanishingly small if demand increases rapidly. What are the chances of that?


Algeria: Fives has reported that it has installed and produced a batch of clinker with a new 6000t/day FCB kiln line at Entreprise des Ciments et Dérivés d'El Chellif (ECDE)’s integrated 1.0Mt/yr Chlef cement plant. When commissioned, the line will bring the plant’s capacity to 3.2Mt/yr.


Argentina: Loma Negra’s total comprehensive income in 2019 was US$61.8m, up by 3.7% year-on-year from US$59.6m in 2018. Its revenue fell by 15% to US$147m from US$173m in 2018. The company said that this was due to decreased demand in Argentina, where its cement, masonry and lime sales declined by 11% year-on-year to 1.28Mt of products from 1.44Mt in 2018, with bulk sales falling further than bagged. Profit growth was hampered by non-recurrent costs from cost-control and streamlining initiatives.

Loma Negra CEO Sergio Faifman said, “Argentina's business suffered more in 2019 than previously expected, however we were able to thrive and present results that we can feel proud of.” He lobbied the new government to adopt policies to ‘re-establish financial stability and economic growth.’

An expansion to Loma Negra’s 1.7Mt/yr integrated L’Amali plant is set to bring the plant’s capacity to 2.4Mt/yr when commissioned in mid-2020.


Vietnam: Cement producers in Vietnam are reported to be facing a ‘double whammy’ due to falling domestic demand from a slowdown in the domestic property and infrastructure sectors, as well as a marked decline in exports due to the ongoing Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic.

However, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce 103Mt of cement during 2020. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt.

To help firms overcome the current difficulties, Cung proposed that the government, the State Bank of Vietnam and other parties offer support to manufacturers in the form of tax cuts and lower interest rates.

Global Cement is sceptical that Vietnam’s cement producers will meet the MoC’s 2020 forecast. In January and February 2020 the country’s domestic sales were 40% lower year-on-year compared to 2019, while exports fell by 49% year-on-year.


France: Hoffman Green Cement Technologies, a pioneer in low-carbon cement production, has announced the publication of its Life Cycle Inventories (LCI) in the INIES database, France’s national reference database for environmental and health performance in the construction sector.

The LCI published by Hoffmann Green summarises all incoming and outgoing flows of raw materials and energy resources used to manufacture its H-UKR and H-EVA cements to allow an assessment of the environmental impacts. They will serve as input data for the software that carries out the life cycle analysis of a construction product, often comprising several materials.

H-UKR is a binder that is based on alkali-activated blast furnace slag, which is sold into the precast concrete, ready-mix concrete and bagged cement markets. H-EVA is a high ettringite binder that is used in the mortar, coatings, road binder and ready-mixed concrete markets.

Julien Blanchard and David Hoffmann, the company’s founder’s stated, "The publication of the LCI of our cements is a first in France and is part of our determined ambition to decarbonise the construction sector and be fully transparent vis-à-vis all our stakeholders. It also illustrates our commitment in the face of the climate change emergency and the need to reconcile cement and the environment.”


Panama: Guatemala-based Cemento Progreso, which acquired Cemento Interoceanico on 21 November 2019, has shared plans to expand its 0.25Mt/yr La Chorrera plant to 0.3Mt/yr production capacity. Noticias Financieras News has reported that the company will also establish three new concrete plants, in David, Chiriquí province, Columbus, Columbus province, and Tocumen, Panama province. Through these it hopes to serve major infrastructure projects such as the construction of a fourth Panama canal bridge and to increase its cement market share from 10%.


Bangladesh: LafargeHolcim Bangladesh has posted a 56% year-on-year increase in profit to US$20.5m in 2019 from US$13.1m in 2018. Sales rose by 100% to US$210m from US$105m in 2018. New Nation Independent Daily News has reported that LafargeHolcim Bangladesh CEO Rajesh Surana said, "2019 was a challenging year for the cement industry. The impact of increased raw material costs and taxes was significant. Despite this, LafargeHolcim demonstrated a strong performance trend. Our focus on improving operational efficiencies, driving commercial innovation and cost optimisation continues to be effective. We are determined to build on this thrust and further increase value to our stakeholders."


Bosnia & Herzegovina: Germany-based HeidelbergCement subsidiary Tvornica Cementa Kakanj (TCK) recorded a profit of Euro7.35m in 2019, down by 15% year-on-year from Euro8.63m in 2018. Sales rose by 1.8% over the period, to Euro37.7m from Euro37.0m. The company explained the profit drop in terms of increased operating costs, which rose by 3.8% to Euro29.4m from Euro22.7m in 2018.


Sri Lanka: Norochcholai Coal Power Plant (NCPP) is courting buyers for its fly ash, of which it says it produces US$5.5m-worth annually. In 2019 NCPP sold US$3.3m to Sri Lankan cement producers. Daily News Sri Lanka has reported that the company has undertaken measures to increase the value of the fly ash to cement producers, in order to obtain a higher price. NCPP manager Indrasiri Gallage said, "By selling fly ash to cement producers the plant has also helped to free the country from reliance on clinker imports."

An expansion, including the installation of a new 300MW coal-fired power plant, will eventually bring the NCPP’s capacity to 1200MW. The plant is currently working to increase the value of its bottom ash for paving block production.


Spain: Cementos Portland Valderrivas has said that it has donated to Cáritas Internationalis’ Samuel Project, which provides values and family workshops and quarterly excursions to disadvantaged people aged between six and 18. Cementos Portland Valderrivas Alcalá de Guadaíra plant environment manager Pedro Lanagrán said that the company is a part of the Alcalareño fabric, and therefore has a ‘responsibility towards society, which includes providing minors with the best education and the best values in order to coexist with society.’


India: Aditya Birla subsidiary UltraTech has announced plans for a 3.5Mt/yr clinker production capacity expansion to its integrated Andhra Pradesh plant in Bhogasamudram, Anantapur district, to 10Mt/yr from 6.5Mt/yr. The new kiln line will cost US$169m and reach completion in March 2022.


Egypt: Germany-based HeidelbergCement subsidiary Suez Cement’s losses fell by 11% year-on-year to US$75.0m in 2019 from US$84.1m in 2018. Mubasher News has reported that sales also fell, by 13% to US$41m from US$0.47bn.

Suez Cement is seeking buyers for its 51% stake in Kuwait-based Hilal Cement.


Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan imported 3.27Mt of cement in 2019, down by 6.8% year-on-year from 3.51Mt in 2018. The value of cement imported fell by 13% to US$154m from US$176m. Trend newspaper has reported that cement imports from Kazakhstan fell by 32% to 0.97Mt from 1.43Mt. Imports from Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also fell, but rose by 85% from Iran, to 0.59Mt from 0.32Mt.

Uzbekistan, which has a 12.9Mt/yr installed cement production capacity, removed its zero rate of customs duty on cement in October 2019 in order to help align domestic demand with production.


US: Mexico-based Cemex has confirmed that its 75% subsidiary Kosmos Cement, which it holds jointly with a subsidiary of Italy-based Buzzi Unicem, has completed the sale of its 1.7Mt/yr integrated Louisville plant to Eagle Materials for US$665m. Cemex says that it will receive US$499m in proceeds from the sale.


North Korea: The Pyongyang Times newspaper has reported that the state-owned integrated Komusan Cement Factory in Komusan, North Hamgyong province, has successfully trialled cement production at a new dry line. The line will reportedly use lignite as fuel.


Nigeria: Dangote Cement has shared plans for the installation of a fifth production line at its 13.3Mt/yr integrated Obajana plant in Obajana, Kogi State, that will raise the plant’s capacity to 16.Mt/yr. Business Day newspaper has reported that the upgrade will be a jointly private and public project aimed at ‘boosting the economy and creating jobs for the unemployed youth,’ with tax reliefs and other incentives available to investors. Dangote Cement executive director Edwin Devakumar said during a visit of the Nigerian Minister of State for Mining and Steel Development Samson Ogar that the company ‘will leverage on the state’s support.’


Ukraine: Italy-based Buzzi Unicem subsidiary Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine has reported a profit of Euro29.2m in 2019, up by 362% from Euro5.67m in 2018. Ukrainian News has reported that the company increased its assets and decreased its accounts receivable and long-term liabilities during the year.


El Salvador: Switzerland-based LafargeHolcim subsidiary Holcim El Salvador has announced a planned investment of US$7.5m to establish six concrete plants in 2020, which will bring its total to 18 plants. Esmerk Latin American News has reported that the investment also covers ‘new trucks and other machinery.’ Holcim El Salvador also announced its intention ‘in the long term’ to resume operations at its 1.6Mt/yr Maya cement plant, mothballed in 2008, at an estimated cost of US$20m. It is currently investigating the possibility of installing a US$5m solar power plant at its 1.7Mt/yr El Ronco cement plant.

In 2019 Holcim El Salvador produced 1.2Mt of cement and 710,000m3 of concrete.


Germany: Hazemag has announced that Hazemag Systems will now market the entire product portfolio of Hazemag raw materials processing and mining equipment division Hazemag & EPR. The group says its ‘sales and process know-how’ will now be bundled at a single Düsseldorf location. Hazemag & EPR employs 400 people in serving industries including cement in 40 countries with plants and equipment for raw materials processing.


Saudi Arabia: Saudi Cement has posted a profit of US$120m in 2019, up by 13% year-on-year from US$108m in 2018. Mubasher has reported that increased sales offset higher costs, with notable growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 of 15% year-on-year, to US$38.3m from US$33.3m in the last three months of 2018.


Vietnam: Producers exported approximately 2.82Mt of cement in January and February 2020, down by 49% year-on-year from 5.75Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. Vietnam News has reported that this is a result of the coronavirus outbreak. In February 2020 Vietnam’s Ministry of Construction said that Vietnamese cement exporters would face fierce competition as China and Thailand increase exports over the coming year.

Vietnam Cement Association president Nguyễn Quang Cung previously predicted that Vietnamese cement exports would hold steady at 34.0Mt in 2020 before falling by 26% to 25.0Mt in 2021 as a forecasted rise in domestic demand reduces the reliance on low-priced exports. China remains the primary importer of Vietnamese cement, which it buys at US$36.3/t. Domestic demand fell by 37% year-on-year to 2.88Mt in January 2020 from 5.43Mt in January 2019, according to Arab News.

Production rose by 0.1% year-on-year to 13.0Mt in January and February 2020 from 12.9Mt one year previously.


Pakistan: Pakistan has recorded year-on-year production growth of 34%, to 4.49Mt in February 2020 from 3.35Mt in February 2019. Consumption grew by 31% to 3.74Mt from 2.84Mt in February 2019. Exports throughout the month were 753,000t, up by 48% from 508,000t. Export growth was bolstered by a weak Pakistani rupee and was stronger in southern Pakistan than in northern Pakistan, with the latter feeling the effects of lowered Afghan demand and zero exports to India.


Russia: Germany-based Gebr. Pfeiffer has reported that it has received an order from ECO-Zoloproduct Invest for a lime hydrating line with a KLV 07/1000-6,3 lime hydrator for installation in the company’s upcoming lime plant in Kassimow, Ryazan. The plant, which will produce lump lime as well as ground and hydrated lime of various fractions, is already set to receive a Gebr. Pfeiffer vertical roller mill MPS 160 B for quicklime grinding in mid-2020, in time for commissioning in late-2020. Gebr. Pfeiffer will deliver and install the lime hydrating line in 2021.