This week a Nigeria-based government regulator has concluded that there may be some anti-competitive behaviour occurring in the local cement sector. One of the other countries it compared Nigeria to was Tanzania. However, Tanzania has been having its own problems with cement supply recently. Let’s explore what’s been happening.
Arguments over the price of cement in Nigeria are a regular occurrence that this column has covered multiple times over the last decade and beforehand. Our last one, in February 2026, covered a think-tank that blamed the situation on structural issues with the market. The latest allegations come from the Anticompetitive Practices Department (ACP) of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC). In a preliminary report its findings “...suggest possible manipulation of prices of cement in the Nigerian market.” The ACP started the investigation due to the apparent high price of cement locally, compared to other countries, despite plenty of limestone sources and surplus production capacity. All the major cement producers in the country cooperated with the ACP apart from one. The department then goes on to note that three large companies account for 90% of cement production in the country.
The ACP actually compared prices in different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to Nigeria. For example, it says that the retail price of cement is US$5.40/bag (50kg) in Nairobi, Kenya or US$4.80/bag in Tanzania. The commission notes that the price of cement rose significantly in the first half of 2026. Its exemplar prices suggest that cement in Nigeria sold for US$7.20/bag in January 2026, US$9.65/bag by the middle of the year and as high as US$11.13/bag by July 2026. The FCCPC press release doesn’t do the calculations but the figures it provides suggest that Kenya has a cement production capacity of 160kg/capita but Nigeria has one of at least 252kg/capita. Nigeria apparently produces more cement per person than Kenya but it may cost twice as much! The FCCPC has asked the large producers to explain their pricing methods, production capacity utilisation and export data and “relevant commercial relationships.”
Local press coverage in Nigeria over the last week included the assessment of cement expert Kevin Tar, who concluded that cement shouldn’t cost more than US$6.00/bag including production and logistics costs. His figures even included 20 - 25% profit for the manufacturers. For comparison, the net profits of two of the main cement producers in Nigeria - BUA Cement and HBM Nigeria - each increased by at least 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. Dangote Cement in its half-year results noted that inflation had been an issue due to rising fuel prices connected to the US - Iran war.
Unfortunately, one of the countries the FCCPC used to try and show that cement prices might be unduly high in Nigeria was Tanzania, which has been having troubles of its own in recent months. The government has given cement producers eight days to cut prices and improve supply after prices reportedly nearly hit US$10/bag in some places. Producers have blamed the situation on mechanical failures at some of the main integrated plants. The cement companies will be back before the Ministry of Industry and Trade on 28 August 2026 for a progress report on the situation.
A number of cement producers raised their prices in July 2026 blaming rising input and production costs, and tax changes amongst other reasons. One tax rise was an increase in specific excise duty rates for the 2026 - 27 tax year that started in July 2026. The government told local press at the time that the country has 15 cement plants with a production capacity of 13.6Mt/yr. These plants had produced 10.3Mt in the last year against a demand of 8.5Mt/yr. The remainder was exported to Malawi, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Burundi and other countries. Global Cement Magazine published an overview of the cement market in Tanzania in its January 2025 issue by authors Holtec Consulting. At the time they noted the country’s relatively low cement consumption per capita and high potential for growth in the sector as the economy developed. Hopefully the current debacle is merely a hiccup on that path.
Nigeria and Tanzania possess cement sectors at different stages of development. Yet both are encountering price spikes at the moment. Nigeria’s industry is more concentrated and much larger. It may be suffering from its perennial structural problems and inflation-based issues. Tanzania’s sector is more diverse. In its case import tariffs on clinker from East African Community countries may be making the market less nimble in the face of a local clicker supply bottleneck. In addition, inflation on fuel prices and the new tax system could be playing their part too. Exports may also be an issue as, anecdotally, they appear to have risen in 2025 and so-far in 2026.
Whether an eventual FCCPC investigation finds anything in Nigeria remains to be seen. Yet, mounting cement prices in another country in Sub-Saharan start to flesh out an argument for a wider trend going in the region.
