It’s been a strong start to 2025 for the Brazilian cement sector. The National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) reported recently that cement sales in the first quarter of 2025 have been the strongest since 2015. Producers sold 15.6Mt in the three month period, a rise of 5.9% year-on-year from 14.7Mt in the same period in 2024.
The result has been attributed to a growing real estate market boosted by housing schemes such as the ongoing Minha Casa Minha Vida programme. SNIC also noted a growing labour market and wage increases, although sales from infrastructure projects failed to keep up. Unfortunately, SNIC is wary of whether the positive news will continue in the second half of 2025. Risks such as interest rates, growing general debt levels and the effects of any potential international trade wars all lie ahead.
Graph 1: Cement production in Brazil, 2017 - 2024. Production estimated for 2024 based on National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) preliminary data on sales. Source: SNIC.
Based on preliminary SNIC data from December 2024, the country likely had its best year in 2024 since the market peaked in the mid-2010s. Cement sales were reported to have risen by 3.9% to 64.7Mt in 2024. Consumption was 73Mt. An estimate of production based on the same rate of growth suggests that cement production may have grown to 69Mt in 2024 from 66.5Mt in 2023.
The three main cement companies - Votorantim Cimentos, InterCement and CSN - each reported domestic earnings growth in 2024. In Votorantim’s case net revenue in Brazil was flat in 2024 at US$1.39bn but its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 4% year-on-year to US$390m supported by higher prices, volumes and lower costs. InterCement has been in a debt resolution process since December 2024, which will be discussed below. Its sales volumes of cement were flat at 8.6Mt and sales revenue fell by 6.6% to US$557m. Yet, adjusted EBITDA rose by 10.2% to US$135m. CSN’s sales volumes of cement increased by 5.9% to 13.5Mt and its cement business sales revenue by 5.7% to US$810m. However, its adjusted EBITDA zoomed ahead by 39.5% to US$231m. The group attributed its higher sales volumes of cement to its strategy of focusing on logistics and distribution centres to target new markets, build market share and boost synergies.
As covered by Global Cement Weekly previously, InterCement has been trying to sell assets since at least the early 2010s. High debt levels have been a problem more recently and the company entered into judicial recovery, a court-led debt recovery process, in December 2024. How this process plays out should inform the nature of any subsequent divestment of assets. InterCement attempted to sell its subsidiary in Argentina, Loma Nega, to CSN in 2024. Unfortunately, this reportedly failed due to the appreciation of Loma Negra and due to disagreements between bondholders and shareholders of parent company Mover, according to the Valor Econômico newspaper. At home in Brazil, Buzzi, CSN, Huaxin Cement, Polimix, Vicat and Votorantim have all been linked to a potential sale of InterCement assets in a piecemeal fashion. Votorantim, in particular, is expected to face opposition from the local competition regulator CADE if it attempted to buy all of InterCement’s cement plants.
It’s positive to see the cement industry in Brazil starting to reach the sales levels last recorded in 2014. SNIC, understandably, isn't taking anything for granted. It’s warned of more modest growth in 2025, compared to the strong opening quarter, with levels forecast to be somewhere between 1 - 1.5%. It says that this will depend on the “evolution of the economy, monetary policy and investments in infrastructure and housing.” It has also warned of “uncertainties arising from the US.” The other big ‘if’ is whether InterCement can actually start selling cement plants in 2025. Time will tell.
