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The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) International Seminar is running this week in New Delhi and this gives us a good opportunity to take a snapshot at the world’s second largest cement industry.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows comfortable cement production growth of 4.4% year-on-year to 255Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As graph 1 shows there was higher production growth in 2018 but this followed a decline in 2017, due to partly to the government’s demonetisation policy. October 2019 confirms a trend of falling year-on-year growth from August 2019 onwards following a peak growth rate in mid-2017.

Graph 1: Indian cement production in the first nine months of the year, 2015 – 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Year-on-year change in monthly Indian cement production, 2017 – October 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Analysts like ICRA have blamed the growth slowdown on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. By region in the six months from April to September 2019 it noted a slowdown in demand due to slowing government projects in northern, eastern and central areas. Labour concerns were reported in the north, centre and Gujarat in the west. Raw material shortages were picked up on such as water in Maharashtra and sand in the east and Andhra Pradesh. Positive growth was reported in Kerala, driven by post-flood reconstruction and low-cost housing schemes, and in Karnataka due to general construction activity. Broadly, UltraTech Cement, the country’s largest cement producer, in its November 2019 investor’s presentation, agreed with this assessment. It noted growth in the northern region and declines elsewhere. Like ICRA it too picked up on low cost housing declaring it to be a ‘key cement consumption driver.’

Away from the figures the main news stories have been continued consolidation such as the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. The sale of the former for plants in east and central regions has been linked to all the major local producers, including those owned by LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. A report in the Hindu newspaper last week quoted a source placing UltraTech Cement and Nirma Group as the frontrunners with a valuation of around US$700m and an announcement at some point in December 2019. Despite UltraTech Cement’s market dominance nationally, its 17% production share in the east is low compared to its presence elsewhere. Nirma Group’s subsidiary Nuvoco Vistas is one of the smaller producers but, notably, it picked up Lafarge India’s assets in 2016.

Investment in new production capacity has continued with announcements from both JSW Cement and HeidelbergCement in recent weeks about expansion plans well into the mid-2020s. This follows planned projects from Dalmia Bharat Cement and Ramco Cement as well as orders from the JK Cement and Shree Cement. This ties into the capacity growth forecasts of around 120Mt over a similar timescale that the analysts were predicting in the middle of 2019. JM Financial, for example, pinned most of this growth on the south followed by the east and north. However, The India Cements said in November 2019 that it was delaying its expansion projects in Uttar Pradesh due to slowing government spending.

As is usual for a country with a low per capita cement consumption, on the national scale, one of the tensions in the Indian cement industry has been the balance between the capacity utilisation rate and the commissioning of new capacity. Its utilisation rate was below 60% in 2018 and a number of producers started reporting the negative effects of higher input and raw materials costs on their financial results. Knowing when to stop and start capacity growth is critical in this kind of environment. Specifically in India’s case curveballs such as government action on pollution and the country’s growing need for imports of coal as well as a burgeoning waste fuels sector are factors to keep an eye on. Finally, general trends such as UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian market, despite buying assets outside the country, are also compelling to watch as it chooses to concentrate on just one country. There are parallels here with other similarly-sized multinational that have also been focusing on core markets elsewhere in the globe.

India: Dalmia Bharat CEO and managing director Mahendra Singhi will continue to serve as president of the Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA), a role to which he was previously appointed in December 2018. Signhi said, “Indian cement is working on low carbon technology map and remaining fully sustainable. I look forward to making 2020 an even more prolific year.” The Indian Express has reported that the new CMA vice president will be LafargeHolcim subsidiary ACC CEO and managing director Neeraj Akhouri.

Ireland: CRH has appointed Shaun Kelly as a non-executive director and chairman of the Audit Committee.

Kelly, aged 60 years, a dual Irish and US citizen, was the Global Chief Operating Officer of KPMG International until September 2019, where he was responsible for the execution of the firm’s global strategy and for the delivery of various global initiatives. Over a 30-year career with KPMG, the majority of which was spent in the US, he held a variety of roles, including Partner in Charge, US Transaction Services (2001 - 2005), Vice Chair and Head of US Tax (2005 - 2010) and Vice Chair Operations and Chief Operating Officer Americas (2010 - 2015), before his appointment as Global Chief Operating Officer in 2015.

Kelly is a fellow of Chartered Accountants Ireland, a US Certified Public Accountant and graduated from University College Dublin with a Bachelor of Commerce and Diploma in Professional Accounting. He also holds an honorary doctorate from Queen’s University Belfast.

Denmark: FLSmidth’s chief financial officer (CFO) Lars Vestergaard has agreed with the board of directors to resign from the company, effective immediately. FLSmidth has stated as the reason for the change a need for ‘a different set of competences to strengthen our organisation and execute long-term financial targets.’ It thanked Vestergaard for his commitment and dedication in helping FLSmidth achieve milestones in ‘creating a stronger and more focused organisation. FLSmidth Head of Group Reporting and Compliance Naja Barrisøe supersedes Vestergaard as interim CFO until the newly appointed CFO joins the company on or before 1 July 2020.

US: Lehigh Cement and Lehigh White Cement have agreed to an investment of US$12m for the installation of pollution control technology across their 11 active cement plants. US Fed News has reported that the upgrades can be expected to reduce net emissions of nitrous oxised (NO_x) by 4550t/yr and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) by 989t/yr. Lehigh Cement will additionally pay a US$1.3m civil penalty for past Clean Air Act violations.

India: UltraTech Cement has announced a planned expansion of its Bhogasamundram waste heat recovery (WHR) power plant to 36MW from 20MW. The plant serves its 5.6Mt/yr integrated Andhra Pradesh cement plant. The upgrade is part of an investment of US$14.0m which will also serve to expand the area of the cement plant by 326 hectares.

Pakistan: The Peshawar High Court has rejected a petition by local residents to prevent the construction of a US$245m cement plant in Haripur by the military Frontier Works Organisation. The Balochistan Times has reported that the project will entail the relocation of people from an area of 0.66km2 and the felling of ‘thousands of trees.’ The Supreme Court gave a preliminary hearing to the case on 2 December 2019, giving the Attorney General, Advocate General Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Defence Ministry until 9 December 2019 to submit their replies.

Azerbaijan: Cement producers in Azerbaijan produced 2.8Mt in the 10-month period ending 31 October 2019, down by 3.4% from 2.9Mt in the corresponding period of 2018. Ready-mix concrete production swelled by 25% to 1.5Mt from 1.2Mt in 2018’s first 10 months. Trend has reported the total value of construction materials produced in Azerbaijan over the period at US$382m.

Belgium: A team of researchers from the University of Mons in Hainaut province has concluded a study in the use of amine-based solvents for carbon capture on between 20% and 60% CO₂ flue gas with funding from HeidelbergCement and the European Cement Research Academy. Lab tests and industrial-scale simulations showed that the solvents lowered regeneration energy, equivalent work and operating costs of carbon capture across the CO₂ concentration range of flue gases tested.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement has installed an ash washing facility at a waste incineration plant in Kumagaya, Saitama prefecture for desalination and lowering of chloride content. After rinsing, the installation will supplement cement production at Taiheiyo Cement’s 1.8Mt/yr integrated Kumagaya plant with up to 69,400t/yr of ash. The total cost of investment was US$7.17m.