Displaying items by tag: coronavirus

US: Portland Cement Association (PCA) chief economist and senior vice president of market intelligence Ed Sullivan forecast a recovery of the US economy in the second half of 2024 at the World of Concrete conference in Las Vegas, Nevada. However, Sullivan told attendees that the economy will ‘gradually weaken’ in the first half of the year. The anticipated weakening is compounded by the end of Covid-19 relief programmes, delayed monetary policy effects and credit tightening. Supporting growth throughout the year are some of the US$550bn infrastructure investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The US government says that 40,000 new projects under the act are either in progress or completed.

Ed Sullivan said "In terms of the construction outlook, there will be a battle between interest sensitive construction sectors and less interest sensitive construction activity such as infrastructure spending and the construction of large manufacturing plants associated with the CHIPS and Science Act."

Uzbekistan: Hengyuan Cement has held a ground-breaking ceremony at the site of its up-coming cement plant in the Kattakurgan district of Samarkand. The plant, a joint-venture between Chinese and Uzbek partners, will have a capacity of 3Mt/yr and cost US$350m to construct. Cement will be sold in the local market and, according to developers, exported to as far afield as the European Union.

At the opening ceremony, the Hokim of Samarkand region Erkinjon Turdimov and Chinese partners noted that cooperation between Uzbekistan and China has been developing steadily in recent years. The project will lead to 600 new direct jobs. The long-awaited cement plant was first announced in 2018, but has repeatedly been delayed, particularly by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Norway: The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has signed a new agreement with Heidelberg Materials Sement Norge, confirming funding of up to US$14.1m for the producer’s construction of a full-scale carbon capture system at its Brevik cement plant. Under the agreement, Heidelberg Materials Sement Norge will absorb extra costs that have arisen, and retain a larger share of any return on the project. Costs rose due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and international supply chain pressures.

Nordic Daily News has reported that Heidelberg Materials Northern Europe director Giv Brantenberg said "We are in the process of completing the world's first full-scale plant for carbon capture in the cement industry, and have had great support from the Norwegian authorities throughout the project's many phases. Today's agreement reflects the good cooperation with the Norwegian government, and we look forward to completing this unique facility.”

The close of the first half of 2023 brought the latest crop of seasonal cement data from the Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA). Vietnam sold 61.4Mt of cement and clinker during the first half of 2023, up by 2.7% year-on-year.¹ Graph 1 (below) tracks the progress of full-year Vietnamese cement and clinker sales over the six years up to 2022, as well as the most recent half-year.

Graph  1 - Vietnamese annual cement production, January 2017 – June 2023

The first half of 2023 marks the first half-year in which lockdown restrictions have been absent in both Vietnam and its main export market, China, since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.² Vietnam was especially hard-hit: it implemented the first lockdown outside of China in March 2020, and has recorded the 13th most Covid-19 cases of any country up to July 2023. Then, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused uncertainties for cement producers and importers all around the world. Yet the price of imported coal across Southeast Asia had returned to pre-war levels by the end of June 2023.³ This indicates that the first half of 2023 may represent a ‘typical’ first half for the Vietnamese cement industry, for the first time this decade. During the 2010s, this meant growth margins of over 10% year-on-year.

During the first half of 2023, Vietnam’s sales volumes grew by 30% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 47.1Mt in the first half of 2019, confirming the industry trend of rapid capacity expansion. Just in the course of the half year, Vietnam’s integrated cement capacity rose by 7.9% to 123Mt/yr.⁴ It previously rose by 6.9% year-on-year to 114Mt/yr in 2022. That year, first-half cement sales also grew by 6.9% year-on-year, to 59.8Mt from 55.9Mt. In the first half of 2023, capacity growth has outstripped the country’s sales growth, of 2.7% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam exported 15.7Mt of cement and clinker in the first half of 2023, 26% of its total despatches.⁵ This corresponds to a decline of 31% year-on-year from 22.7Mt (38% of despatches) in the first half of 2022 and a rise of 0.5% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 15.6Mt (33%) in the first half of 2019.

Chinese construction is the lynchpin in the Vietnamese cement industry’s current growth model. Over successive Five-Year Plans, it has consumed increasing volumes of clinker from Vietnam, as well as cement, at diminishing prices. This strategy overreached itself in the first quarter of 2023, more than a year into an on-going Chinese property market slump, when the value of Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to the country fell by 95% year-on-year, to US$11.4m.⁶

By lowering prices, Vietnam’s cement sector charts a careful course within the contested waters of global trade rules, but it has run aground before. Most recently, from the start of 2023, the Philippines attached tariffs of up to 28% (and up to 55% for blended cement) to Vietnamese cement from 11 different producers.⁷ The Philippines Tariff Commission had found that ‘dumped’ cement from Vietnam – constituting over 50% of cement imports over the 18 months up to the end of 2020 – threatened the domestic industry. The failure to diversify its markets is a further sign that Vietnam’s current positioning in the cement and clinker trade is, at best, medium-term.

From October 2023, cement entering the European Union (EU) will become subject to extra taxes under the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).⁸ The EU is a relatively small trade partner for Vietnam, but the longer-term effect of this policy will be to replicate itself in the statute books of other nations and trade blocs, beginning in the Global North. With forecast lignite imports of 70 – 75Mt to Vietnam in 2023 – 2026, opportunities for cement exports from Vietnam, and countries like it, are diminishing.

The best situation for Vietnam would be accelerated growth in its domestic consumption base. The government is attempting to trigger a construction boom with its 2023 budget, which includes US$5bn in residential construction funding. Meanwhile, full-year infrastructure spending will rise by 25% year-on-year.⁹ To this end, it also needs to keep the cement price low. From 1 January 2023, Vietnamese exporters paid a tax of 10% of value on shipments of cement and clinker, instead of the previous 5% rate. If successful, this will nourish booming consumption with booming, and cheap, supply. Vietnam is grafting its Chinese model back onto the domestic market.

Producers will keep exporting. In May 2023, Nghi Son Cement Corporation despatched a first shipment of 31,500t of cement to the US. Nghi Son Cement Corporation’s cement, produced with fly ash, is clearly considered by the company and its owners to have some long-term marketability in the US. Said owners include Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement, which produces cement in the US via its CalPortland subsidiary.

In Vietnam, the cement industry has undergone a period of unparalleled growth, fuelled by exports. It can now reinvest the proceeds in establishing a self-sufficient construction sector around an ever more sustainable cement industry, ready to become the first choice across new markets as they arise in Southeast Asia and beyond.

1. Global Cement, 'Vietnam's first-half cement production declines in 2023,' 29 June 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15941-vietnam-s-first-half-cement-production-declines-in-2023

2. The Observer, ‘‘It was all for nothing’: Chinese count cost of Xi’s snap decision to let Covid rip,’ 29 January 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/chinese-cost-covid-xi-lockdowns-china

3. Reuters, ‘Column: Asia thermal coal prices get the blues from Europe and LNG,’ 20 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-thermal-coal-prices-get-blues-europe-lng-russell-2023-06-20/

4. Việt Nam News, ‘Record input costs thwart cement groups,’ 12 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?mod=SavedSearch_SelectSearch&page_driver=SavedSearch_SelectSearch#./!?&_suid=168119771197707004455190223307

5. Việt Nam News, ‘Industry: Vietnam’s Cement, Clinker Exports +82.2% y/y to $116M in Jun: GSO,’ 4 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?page_driver=searchBuilder_Search#./!?&_suid=168908188871006418595282713178

6. Vietnam Investment Review, ‘A strenuous year ahead in cement,’ 9 May 2023, https://vir.com.vn/a-strenuous-year-ahead-in-cement-101707.html

7. Global Cement, 'Philippines Department of Trade and Industry to impose anti-dumping duties on cement from Vietnam,' 22 December 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15084-philippines-department-of-trade-and-industry-to-impose-anti-dumping-duties-on-cement-from-vietnam

8. Global Cement, 'Too taxing? How the CBAM affects cement exporters to the EU,’ 29 June 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/14316-too-taxing-how-the-cbam-affects-cement-exporters-to-the-eu

9. Customs News, ‘Cement enterprises expect a "brighter" second half of 2023
https://english.haiquanonline.com.vn/cement-enterprises-expect-a-brighter-second-half-of-2023-25368.html

Bahrain: Fives Services Gulf has held the inauguration ceremony for its Bahrain workshop. The facility includes offices, warehouses and machining, parts production and repair facilities. The site first entered operation amid Covid-19 restrictions in early 2021.

Fives Services Gulf chief executive Frederic Gicquel said "We are proud to be part of the industrial development of Bahrain and support the government's efforts to improve the foreign investor experience. This workshop will enable us to provide better quality services to our clients in the region and contribute to the sustainable growth of the industrial sector."

The subsidiary of France-based Fives employs 134 people.

Spain: Cement consumption grew by 4% in Catalonia in the first quarter of 2023 to reach almost 600,000t. This slight improvement after the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic reflects continued pessimism in the autonomous region’s construction sector. This has been accentuated in recent months by the stoppage of real estate developments due to the uncertainty that inflation causes in costs and the increase in the price of money, which has slowed down the granting of mortgages.

While an 8.3% year-on-year improvement in sales was seen in March 2023, a large portion of this this improvement is due to artificially low consumption in March 2022 when there was a cement trucker strike.

Pakistan: Bestway Cement has ignited the kiln of Line 1 of its Mianwali cement plant in Punjab. The line has a capacity of 2.3Mt/yr. The Pakistan Observer newspaper has reported that it increases the producer's cement capacity by 18% to 15.3Mt/yr and brings its total number of production lines to eight. The Mianwali cement plant is equipped with a 20MW solar power plant and will run on 50% renewable energy. It also has a 9MW waste heat recovery (WHR) plant, an air cooled condenser (ACC) system and a rainwater harvesting system.

Bestway Cement CEO Lord Zameer Choudrey said "It's a great day for the company. Our new greenfield production line at Mianwali has been set up in a record time, despite various hurdles and supply chain disruptions caused by Covid-19."

The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.

What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.

As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.

Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.

France: Vicat’s full year results for 2022 show a 16.6% year-on-year rise in consolidated sales, from Euro3.12bn to Euro3.12bn. Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDTA) came to Euro570m, a 7.9% fall compared to Euro619m in 2021. Its net income for 2022 was Euro156m, a fall of 23.6% year-on-year from Euro204m in 2021.

Commenting on these figures, Guy Sidos, the Group’s chair and chief executive officer, said “In 2022, the Vicat Group demonstrated resilience amid tough conditions. Faced with an unfavourable basis of comparison as a result of the sharp post-Covid rebound in business trends during 2021, a very strong increase in energy costs and non-recurring industrial costs in the US, France and India, we responded rapidly, raising our selling prices significantly across almost all the markets in which we operate to offset the impact of inflation. We have made progress with our policy of lowering our greenhouse gas emissions by harnessing existing solutions and investing in technologies that will enable us to reach our new 2030 targets.”

Vietnam: Analysis by SSI Research forecasts that the reopening of the Chinese economy, following its change in public health policy towards Covid-19, should increase cement exports in the second half of 2023. If this happens it is expected to reduce competition between producers in central and northern regions, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. Signs of a recovery in cement exports to China were already noted in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, an increase in clinker export tariffs from the start of 2023 may presents a fresh issue for the producers. Cement and clinker exports from Vietnam fell by 29% year-on-year to 31.7Mt in 2022.