Displaying items by tag: Guangdong

In case you’ve missed it there’s been a boom in cement demand in China during the current quarter. Henan province saw a run on cement prices in November 2019 that the local press described as ‘crazy.’ Some companies were issuing price adjustments twice a day, according to the China Cement Association. The article on the CCA’s website also includes a video showing dozens of cement trucks queuing at a mill with the caption ‘all the plants are like this, don’t ask the price any more.’

The CCA’s blamed the situation in Henan on pollution controls on production and a rebound in cement demand. Weather-based pollution controls enacted in late October 2019 shut-down or limited production at 66 of the province’s 72 clinker production lines. Builders were then forced to source cement from neighbouring Shanxi, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces. At the same time demand for cement from real estate and infrastructure sectors picked up in the fourth quarter of 2019. Following advice from the local cement manufacturers’ association, the provincial government relaxed the rules on peak shifting that normally run from November to February in a bid to control the situation. Cement prices in Henan hit a high in mid-to-late November 2019 and have since subsided somewhat.

Nationally, Chinese cement prices hit a high in late November 2019 beating the highest level in 2018 and also setting the highest price since 2011. The key regions driving the increase have been in central and south China, including Guangxi, Guangdong and Henan. One more thing to note here is that peak shifting or seasonal shutdown of production capacity has different dates in different provinces. So, potentially, the situation could repeat itself if unexpected demand continues and provincial governments fail to monitor the situation.

Recently a couple of economic indicators in China have suggested a recovery in infrastructure spending in recent months, supporting increased cement demand. Data from Wind quoted by the Financial Times newspaper suggests that the cement price rose by 15% since September 2019 in large cities. Reinforced steel (rebar) and aggregates prices have increased similarly. At the same time the South China Post newspaper has reported a growth in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing activity that could also point to renewed infrastructure spending. Central government is also reported to be taking measures to support provincial infrastructure development.

If true then this may be creating some pretty direct lessons in economic interventionism. The Chinese government appears to be stimulating demand for cement via infrastructure growth while restricting production at the same time. Cement prices have reacted in a ‘crazy’ fashion. The real tension here is between two conflicting desires: protecting the economy and protecting the environment. The state planners may be grappling with this one for a while.

The publication of CNBM’s financial results presents a good opportunity to take stock of the Chinese cement industry in the first half of 2019. Looking at the big picture first, cement sales rose by 5% year-on-year to 1.03Bnt in the first half of 2019 from 0.98Bnt in the same period in 2018. Graph 1 below shows the sales over the last five years since 2014. Generally, sales are decreasing each year but there has been some variation in the half-year periods.

Graph 1: Cement sales in China, 2014 – 2019. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

As the China Cement Association (CCA) pointed out in its summary for the first half of 2019, the cement industry ‘swelled in volume and price’ as industry efficiency grew but that the growth rate dropped ‘significantly’ compared in 2018. By region, as Graph 2 shows, variation can be seen between the south-east of the country where growth was slow or even fell compared to stronger performance elsewhere. Cement production increased by above 20% in Jilin, Shanxi, Shandong, Tibet and Heilongjiang and by over 10% in Hebei, Gansu, Tianjin, and Liaoning. However, it fell in Hainan, Beijing, Qinghai, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Ningxia. Most of these changes were attributed to either rising or falling demand for cement, except for Jilin where reduced imports from neighbouring provinces pushed up its demand. In most of these latter regions it attribute the decline to falling demand for cement.

Graph 2: Cement production growth by province in first half of 2019. Source: China Cement Association.

Other points of note from the CCA include the surge in imports to China. Imports of cement and clinker rose by 149% year-on-year to 8.97Mt in the five months from January to May 2019. Vietnam supplied 68% of this followed by 11% from Thailand. On the production side, 10 new production lines with a total capacity of 15.5Mt/yr were commissioned in the period. These were fairly scattered across nine provinces, in Shanxi, Anhui, Hubei, Fujian, Guangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Gansu and Yunnan respectively.

Sales and profits were supported by growing demand and prices on the corporate side. CNBM’s operating income for its cement businesses grew by 16% to US$8.14bn from US$7.04bn. Its adjusted profit increased by 40% to US$2.76bn from US$1.98bn. Anhui Conch’s sales rose by 17.9% to US$2.15bn from US$2.11bn. It blamed poorer profits in the south of the country on adverse weather leading to weakened demand.

The weaker sales in the south could be seen in China Resources Cement’s (CRC) results with its turnover down by 6% to US$2.22bn from US$2.36bn. Likewise, its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 8.5% to US$820m from US$896m. The majority of its cement plants are based in Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. Jidong Cement was also reported as having received US$30m in subsidies from the government during the first half of 2019 in relation to its ‘daily activities.’

As is usual for these kinds of roundups the dynamic in China is between government industrial policies, like peak shifting and pollution mitigation, and local demand and price trends. One of the latest spins on peak shifting, for example, is a rating system that is being considered to decide which companies should be subject to production limits and for how long. General cement sales are slowly falling each year but the rise of imports into the word’s biggest cement producing nation (!) mark an interesting trend. Also, it may not be connected, but lots of those provinces with falling demand so far in 2019 are those on the south coast facing the heavy clinker exporting nations of South-East Asia. Given the decisiveness with which the Chinese government dispensed with imports of waste materials under its National Sword initiative since 2017, those countries importing cement to China should beware. It could change very quickly. The Chinese cement market is never dull.

China: China Resources Cement’s turnover fell by 6.7% year-on-year to US$957m in the first quarter of 2019 from US$1.03bn in the same quarter of 2018. Its profit fell by 16% to US$189m from US$226m. Its cement sales volumes dropped by 7.7% to 15.2Mt from 16.5Mt, clinker sales fell by 2% to 1.16Mt from 1.18Mt and concrete volumes declined by 15% to 2.58Mm³ from 3.03Mm³. Sales volumes fell in the company’s main markets in Guangdong and Guangxi.

China: Guangdong Tapai has ordered two coal mills from Germany’s Loesche for its two 10,000t/day clinker production lines in Jiaoling, Meizhou in Guangdong. This is a repeat order, following an order for two LM 35.3 D coal mills that was made in 2015. The 3-roller mill grinds 50t/hr of pulverised coal to a fineness of 3% with a sieving residue of 0.08 mm. The installed power is 1200kW. The order has been placed through Loesche Shanghai and the two newly ordered coal mills are expected to be delivered in April 2019.

There is plenty to mull over on the Chinese cement market at the moment as the half-year reports for the major cement producers are being published. Anhui Conch revealed this week a glowing balance sheet with a 33% jump in its sales revenue to US$4.79bn. It attributed the boost to a ‘significant’ increase in prices and continued discipline with production and operation costs. Although CNBM is scheduled to release its results at the end of August 2017, Anhui Conch appear to be well ahead of its next largest rivals locally as can be seen in Graph 1.

Graph 1: Sales revenue of major selected Chinese cement producers. Sources: Company financial results.

Beyond the headline figures it is interesting to pinpoint the areas in China where Anhui Conch says it isn’t doing as well. Its South China region, comprising Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, suffered from competition in the form of new production capacity, which also in turn dented prices. Despite this ‘black spot’ in the company’s regional revenue still grew its sales in double-digits by 14%.

The other point to note is the growing number of overseas projects with the completion of a cement grinding plant in Indonesia, new plants being built in Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos, and projects being actively planned in Russia, Laos and Myanmar. The cement producer also opened seven grinding plants at home in China during the reporting period. It’s not there yet but it will mark a serious tipping point when the company starts to open more plants outside of China than within it. With the government still pushing for production capacity reduction it can only be a matter of time. On that last point China Resources Cement (CRC) reckoned in its half-year results that only four new clinker production lines, with a production capacity of 5.1Mt/yr, were opened in China in the first half of 2017.

After a testing year in 2016 CRC’s turnover has picked up so far in the first-half of 2017 as its sales revenue for the period rose by 17% to US$1.67bn. Despite its cement sales volumes falling by 9% to 33.6Mt, its price increased. Given that over two thirds of its cement sales arose from Guangdong and Guangxi it seems likely that CRC suffered from the same competition issues that Anhui Conch complained about.

Graph 2: Chinese cement production by half year, 2014 – 2017. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Graph 2 adds to the picture of a resurgent local cement industry suggesting that the Chinese government’s response to the overcapacity crisis may be starting to deliver growth again. After cement production hit a high in 2014 in fell in 2015 and started to revive in 2016. So far 2017 seems to be following this trend.

Returning to the foreign ambitions of China’s cement producers brings up another story from this week with news about the Nepalese government’s decision to delay signed an investment agreement with a Chinese joint venture that is currently building a cement plant in the country. With the prime minister visiting India the local press is painting it as a face-saving move by the Nepalese to avoid antagonising either of the country’s main infrastructure partners. This is relevant because the cement industries of both China and India are starting look abroad as they consolidate and rationalise. Once China’s cement producer start building more capacity overseas than at home, conflicts with Indian producers are likely to grow and present more awkward situations for states caught in the middle.

China: China Resources Cement has started operation at its 6000t/day cement plant in Lianjiang, Guangdong. The integrated cement plant is aimed at markets in the west of Guangdong and the southeast of Guangxi. The company has completed the construction of all of its planned production lines in Guangdong. Its total clinker and cement production capacities in Guangdong are 14.4Mt/yr and 22.5Mt/yr respectively.

China: China Resources Cement (Fengkai), a subsidiary of the China Resources Cement, has started operation of its sixth 5000t/day clinker production line at its cement plant in Fengkai County, Guangdong Province. The site has a total clinker production capacity of 9.3Mt/yr and a cement production capacity of 8Mt/yr. the plant mainly serves the Pearl River Delta area of Guangdong Province.

China: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and related departments are considering draft guidelines on eliminating outdated production capacity in cement, ship-making, electrolytic aluminium and glass industries, according to Xinhua. At least 500Mt of ‘low-grade’ cement production capacity will be phased out.

The central government decided to promote supply-side reform at the end of 2015. Eliminating outdated capacity is a top priority. Methods to do this include phasing out outdated capacity, removing ‘zombie’ enterprises and promoting industrial reorganisation.

Kong Xiangzhong, vice president of China Cement Association, has advised the central government to provide certain compensation for the industry and establish a special fund so as to appropriately deal with the re-employment of redundant personnel and enterprise debts. Several provinces have specified their targets. Guangdong Province plans to cut clinker production capacity to 110Mt by the end of 2018.

China: Guangdong Tapai Group plans to invest about US$570m towards building a new clinker production line in Meizhou City in Guangdong Province. The line will include two 10,000t/day rotary kiln clinker production lines and two 20MW low-temperature waste heat power generation system. The project will produce 6Mt/yr of clinker and is pending government approval.

In late November 2013 Guangdong province in China announced that it will be launching its carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) in December 2013. Together with six other pilot projects in China the scheme will be the second largest carbon market in the world after the European Union (EU) when fully operational. Yet with the EU ETS floundering from excess carbon permits, with a resulting low price of permits and large cement producers such as a Lafarge reported as stockpiling permits, what are the Chinese schemes planning to do differently to avoid these pitfalls?

Overall, China has announced that it intends to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by up to 45% by 2020 compared to 2005. In Guangdong, emissions from 202 companies will be capped at 350Mt for 2013, according to the local Development and Reform Commission. As shown in an article in the December 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Guangdong province has a cement production capacity of 132.7Mt/yr, the second highest in the country after Anhui province.

From the perspective of the cement industry, Chunfang Wang from Huaxin Cement spoke about the importance of monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) at an International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) workshop that took place in Guangzhou, Guangdong in early 2013. From Wang's perspective, emission assessment standards were at a 'developmental' stage in China and 'smooth' carbon trading would depend on consistent standards being adopted everywhere. Although at the time the particulars of the Guangdong scheme were unknown, participants at the IETA event advised cooperation with scheme planners to ensure emission producers and purchasers remained part of the decision process. Sliding carbon prices in the EU ETS may have been beneficial for permit buyers but once the government planners become involved to revive the market they might lose out.

As the Economist pointed out the summer of 2013, an ETS is a cap-and-trade scheme. Since China appears to have no definite cap to carbon emissions, how can the trading work? The Chinese schemes cap carbon per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet since GDP is dependent on production, any ETS run in this way would have to include adjustments at the end of trading. This would give central planners of the scheme plenty of wiggle room to rig the scheme. Worse yet, analysts Thomson Reuters Point Carbon have pointed out that the Chinese schemes face over-allocation of permits, the same issue that sank EU carbon prices. Additionally, one of the criticisms of the Guangdong Emissions Trading Scheme (GETS) pilot scheme was that the carbon prices may have been higher than expected due to market collusion.

The Chinese ETS projects face issues over their openness. If traders don't know accurately how much carbon dioxide is being produced by industry, such as cement production, then the scheme may be undermined. Similarly, over-allocating carbon permits may make it easier for producers to meet targets but it will cause problems in the trading price of carbon. However, given that a carbon emissions cap is an artificial mechanism to encourage markets to cut emissions, should any of these concerns really matter? The main question for Chinese citizens is whether or not China can cut its overall emissions and clear the air in its smog filled mega-cities.

Specifically for cement producers, it seems likely that large producers will be able to cope with the scheme best, from having more carbon permits to sell, to rolling out unified emissions assessment protocols, to liaising better with scheme planners. In Europe smaller cement producers, like Ecocem, have criticised the EU ETS for slowing a transition to a low carbon economy by subsidising the larger producers' emissions through over-allocation. In China, with its self-declared intention to consolidate an over-producing cement industry, whatever else happens it seems likely that smaller cement producers may become lost in the haze.