Displaying items by tag: Indonesian Cement Association

One of the surprises from the recent round of half-year results has been HeidelbergCement’s struggle to grow its sales so far in 2017. Part of this has been down to a variable market in Indonesia where the German cement producer runs the second largest player, Indocement.

Cement consumption for the country as a whole dropped by 1.3% year-on-year to 29Mt in the first half of the year, according to Indonesian Cement Association figures. This appears to be due to a particularly poor month in June 2017 where local consumption fell by 27% to 3.7Mt. Prior to that, consumption was actually showing 4% growth up until the end of May.

Fairly reasonably HeidelbergCement blamed the decline in part on this year’s timing of Ramadan. Unfortunately this could not explain everything, as its total sales volumes including exports fell by 2.4%. Remove the exports and its sales volumes fell by 4.4%, more than the national average. It said this was due to its concentration in weaker markets in Jakarta, Banten, and West Java where competition pressures had forced prices down ‘significantly.’

They weren’t alone in feeling the pain in June 2017 with both Semen Indonesia and LafargeHolcim reporting reduced sales. However, LafargeHolcim also raised the issue of production overcapacity creating increased sales volumes and pushing down prices. This was reflected in lower earnings for its Asia Pacific division. HeidelbergCement too saw its earnings crumble.

Graph 1: Cement production capacity and consumption. Source: Semen Indonesia investor presentation, March 2017.

Graph 1 shows quite nicely the fix the Indonesian cement market is in at present. Consumption surpassed production capacity in the early 2010 before incoming capacity jumped ahead again around 2013. You can also view Global Cement’s version of this graph here. Even at an optimistic annual growth rate of 8%, consumption won’t get close to capacity until 2020. Yet before the market collapsed in June, consumption was growing at 4%, which is the weakest of Semen Indonesia’s growth scenarios.

Admittedly the graph is in an investor document so we can forgive ebullience but they are going to need a magic bullet to dodge this one. Lucky then that the graph also has infrastructure highlighted. The cement producer says that the Indonesian government earmarked US$26bn for infrastructure spending in 2017 and that this spending campaign can be seen in the changing ratio of bulk to bagged cement it has been selling. Independent of Semen Indonesia, the Fitch credit rating agency was also predicting rising consumption off the back of infrastructure plans in a report it put out in June.

However, as more cement plants are being built, cement plant utilisation rates seem destined to stay subdued for the foreseeable future unless the government seriously ups its infrastructure investment or unless the economy goes into overdrive. Unsurprisingly exports have shot up so far in 2016, by 74% to 1.14Mt. Cement producers in neighbouring countries beware!

Indonesia: The Fitch credit rating agency says that cement sales are starting to rise due to increased investment in infrastructure projects but that overcapacity will continue to limit improvements in cement producers' profitability. Indonesian Cement Association's (ASI) data show that domestic cement sales volumes rose by 7% year-on-year in May 2017 to 5.5Mt. Sales volumes for January to May 2017 increased by 4% to 25.3Mt.

Fitch has attributed this growth to a 13% growth in sales of bulk cement, which is used mainly for infrastructure-related developments. By region, the main driver of the increase was in central Java, where toll road projects are underway and where sales rose by 17%. Demand for bagged cement, which is generally used for property developments, rose by 5% in May 2017.

Holcim Indonesia inaugurated a new cement terminal in Lampung last week. Unfortunately, the spectre of industry overcapacity haunts the country at present and the subsidiary of LafargeHolcim may be late to the party. The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has been publicly warning the government of overcapacity since the end of the summer. Its first line of action has been to lobby for restrictions on producer permits to slow the growth of new plants.

ASI figures show that cement sales in September 2016 fell by 3.3% to 5.64Mt compared to August 2016 due to lower residential sector demand. Domestic cement sales rose by 2.95% year-on-year to 44.7Mt in the first nine months of 2016 and the ASI expects sales growth of 3 – 4% for 2016 overall. Yet, the risk of overcapacity is stark. Cement production capacity has nearly doubled from 59.3Mt/yr in 2012 to 92.7Mt/yr in 2016 but demand is projected to only reach 65Mt in 2016, leaving a production oversupply of 27.7Mt. Regional consumption has fallen in Jakarta, Banten and West Java, particularly in the first two. Elsewhere, it has grown, particularly in Central Java, as well as Yogyakarta and East Java to a lesser extent.

Initial Global Cement Directory 2017 research places active production capacity at 66.3Mt/yr suggesting that the ASI may be exaggerating the risk of overcapacity. The additional c30Mt/yr capacity arises from plants that have been proposed, that are actually under construction or that have been mothballed. However, the ASI data should be more accurate as it represents the local producers. Either way, capacity is growing faster than consumption as can be seen in graph 1.

Graph 1: Cement consumption and production capacity in Indonesia, 2012 – 2016. Source: Indonesian Cement Association, Global Cement Directory 2012 – 2017.

Semen Indonesia, the country’s largest producer, reported that its revenue fell very slightly to US$1.4bn in the first nine months of 2016 and its net profit fell by 8.4% to US$215m. It blamed this on a fall in sales volumes and prices due to rising competition. The other large producers have said similar in the past. Indocement, the country’s second largest producer after Semen Indonesia, saw its revenue fall by 11.9% to US$837m in the first nine months of 2016 and its profit fell by 2.2% to US$231m. LafargeHolcim described the market as affected by overcapacity and ‘a difficult competitive environment.’

Back in May 2016 a feature on the predicament facing the Indonesian cement industry in the Jakarta Post suggested that producers were building new capacity despite the risks of overcapacity to win market share. Cement producers are about to find out whether this will work or not. Meanwhile it seems unlikely that the measures the ASI is suggesting will do much to alleviate the looming crisis. Still, on the positive side, it’s looking like a good time to buy cement as a consumer.

For more information about the cement industry in Indonesia view the first part of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) feature in the October 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Indonesia: The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has reported that cement sales in September 2016 fell by 3.3% to 5.64Mt compared to August 2016. It blamed the decline on lower demand from the local housing industry. Cement sales fell sharply in Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, while eastern parts of Indonesia, including Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua, saw an increase in sales, according to the Jakarta Globe.

"Weakening sales may be due to the lower demand from houses and apartments. Demand from infrastructure projects has been picking up since the second quarter of 2016, but still can't make up for the lack of demand from the property sector," said ASI chairman Widodo Santoso.

National cement sales rose by 2.95% year-on-year to 44.7Mt in the first nine months of 2016 and the ASI expects sales growth of 3 – 4% for 2016. However, cement producers fear that this growth rate will be insufficient to sustain investments in new cement plants. The ASI says that cement production in Indonesia has exceeded demand by more than 30%.

Indonesia: The Indonesia Cement Association (ASI) has urged the government to restrict the issuance of new licenses as the country's cement industry has been experiencing oversupply. Widodo Santoso, chairman of the ASI, told an industry seminar that there are 13 cement producers in the country with total production capacity of 92Mt/yr but that local demand is only reaching 63 – 65Mt/yr, according to Cogencis.

"The government should restrict investment in cement industry by leading the new cement investment to outside Java where there is no cement industry," said Santoso said.

Santoso added that 10 cement plants opened in 2015 and that four more are set to start operation in 2016. By 2017 the country’s cement production capacity may surpass 100Mt/yr. He recommended that local producers increase their exports. The ASI estimates that exports will increase to 2Mt/yr in 2016 from 0.5Mt/yr in 2015. Countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Australia, African countries, and West Asian countries are among the destinations.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia’s cement sales volumes rose by 1.2% year-on-year to 12.4Mt in the first half of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. Local sales rose by 1.6% to 12.2Mt but export volumes fell sharply by 20.1% to 0.19Mt. The decline in export sales was attributed to the Indarung cement plant in Padang province.

Cement consumption for the country as a whole rose by 3.1% to 29.5Mt for the first half of 2016, according to Indonesian Cement Association data. Increases in consumption were noted in most regions, with the exception of Kalimantan, where consumption fell by 16% to 2Mt. Notable increases in consumptions were recorded in Sulawesi, Maluku and West Papua. Overall exports of cement fell by 19.3% to 0.21Mt but clinker exports rose by 380% to 0.42Mt in the period.

Indonesia: Cement sales for the first seven months of 2015 have continued to decrease. Weak demand, in addition to the Eid al-Fitr holiday period, caused national cement sales for July 2015 to fall by 4.2% year-on-year to 31.3Mt.

Regions with the largest cement consumption drop for July 2015 were Bali and Nusa Tenggara, which saw a 26.5% drop to to 214,540t, Kalimantan with a drop of 23.6% to 208,939t, Java with a 13.9% decrease to 1.79Mt and Sumatra with a drop of 3.3% to 726,000t.

Widodo Santoso, chairperson of the Indonesian Cement Association, is optimistic that cement sales and consumption will increase in the second half of 2015 as the government starts actualising its budget to boost the infrastructure sector. Santoso said that the cement industry would gain 11Mt/yr of additional production capacity from the operation of four new plants from Semen Bosowa, Holcim Indonesia, Semen Merah Putih, Semen Jawa and Semen Conch. The additional cement supply and weakening of cement demand may cause oversupply in the cement industry and create higher competition.

Meanwhile, Semen Indonesia has revised its domestic cement sales growth target to 0% from the initial target of 5%, in line with weak demand in the cement market in the first half of 2015. Agung Wiharto, corporate secretary of Semen Indonesia, said that unsupportive macroeconomic conditions, depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and the weakening of commodity prices affected the company's sales for the first semester. Its sales volume for the first half of 2015 decreased by 4.2% year-on-year.

"Semen Indonesia's sales volume in several regions was affected by tight competition with new players and new plants," said Wiharto. He added that he expects the domestic cement market to improve in the third quarter of 2015, in line with actual infrastructure developments to boost cement demand in the private and retail sectors. "Cement sales are expected to again grow by 6 - 8% in 2016 if infrastructure developments continue." Semen Indonesia plans to resume several cement plant expansion projects in Rembang and Padang to meet cement demand growth in the future. The plants in Rembang and Padang will each have capacities of 3Mt/yr.

Indonesia: Cement consumption fell by nearly 4% year-on-year during the first five months of 2015, the biggest decline in the January - May period in the last six years. The fall has been blamed on the country's slowing economy.

Data released by the Indonesian Cement Association show that cement demand in January - May 2015 fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 22.9Mt. It was the steepest drop so far in 2015. Consumption has declined consistently since February 2015. It was also the biggest drop recorded since 2009, when domestic demand fell by nearly 7% year-on-year due.

Indonesia's economy grew by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2015, the slowest in six years and since the start of the global financial crisis. Cement consumption has been a parameter in emerging markets' economic growth. "Cement demand has not fully recovered yet due to slower economic growth, relatively high interest rates, changes in property regulations and bleak commodity exports, which hampered property demand and consequently reduced cement consumption," said Marwan Halim from the stockbroking arm of United Overseas Bank Ltd, UOB KayHian, in a report. Bank Indonesia has maintained its interest rate at 7.5% to curb inflation and maintain its currency, while mortgage regulation and a lower price threshold for property products subject to 20% income have contributed to constraining the property industry.

Cement consumption in May 2015 fell by 7.9% year-on-year, much steeper than the 1.1% decline recorded in April 2015. It was the biggest May drop recorded since May 2009. Lower sales in May 2015 occurred in almost every part of the country, although East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara Provinces saw monthly sales rise by nearly 50% year-on-year. Commodity-based provinces experienced the highest declines during the month, with South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan making the steepest plunges with 41% and 24%, respectively. Even West Java, which traditionally has one of the highest cement consumption rates in Indonesia, suffered a sales decline of 8.3% year-on-year in May 2015.

Indonesia: The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has warned that imported cement from Thailand and Vietnam is damaging the fortunes of local cement producers. ASI chairman Widodo Santoso predicted that demand for Indonesian-made cement in eastern Indonesia fell by 29.5% year-on-year to 93,000t in the first quarter of 2014. He blamed the 'drastic' fall of demand from Nusa Tenggara and Papua on imported cement.

National demand for cement in Indonesia grew by 1.6% year-on-year in February 2014 with cement sales at 4.47Mt. Cement demand in Java, the country's largest provincial consumer, rose by 3.4% year-on-year in February 2014.

In December 2013 the Indonesian Trade Ministry issued the Trade Minister Regulation No.40/2013 on the Import of Cement Clinker and Cement, which required cement importers to have a registered license prior to receiving imports approval. According to Widodo, imports would be prioritised for cement producers who build new cement plants. Other reasons for the country's lower increase in cement demand have been attributed to excessive rain, the eruption of Mount Kelud and preparations for elections.

The ASI estimates that cement sales in 2014 will reach 62Mt/yr, an increase of 5 - 6% over 2013. Exports are predicted to reach 1.5 - 2.0Mt/yr.

Indonesia: Holcim Indonesia has reported that its sales volumes fell by 2% year-on-year to 8.43Mt in 2013 from 8.58Mt in 2012, according to the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI). Its sales accounted for 14.5% of the domestic market share.