Displaying items by tag: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

Kenya: Cement sales fell by 8% year-on-year to 8.47Mt in 2024, the sharpest annual decline in over two decades, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The fall reflects budgetary cuts on public infrastructure projects and a broader slowdown in construction activity, which contracted by 3% in the third quarter of 2024, following a 2% drop in the second quarter.

KNBS said in its report “The contraction was reflected by trends in key industry indicators. For instance, cement consumption declined by 10% to 2.2Mt in the third quarter of 2024, from 2.4Mt in the same quarter of 2023.”

According to the Nation newspaper, the slowdown follows delays in the government’s payments to contractors and the stalling of infrastructure projects. The government indicated that most of the stalled projects will begin to receive funding in the next few days and weeks.

Kenya: Cement consumption rose by 27% year-on-year in January 2025, up by 4% in December 2024, according to provisional data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Cement production also grew by 21% year-on-year in January following more than a year of contraction. In the 12 months to January 2025, cement consumption fell by 5% year-on-year and cement production dropped by 6% year-on-year.

National Cement is preparing to open its new integrated West Pokot plant in September 2023. Readers may recall that the long-running project was taken over by Devki Group from Cemtech and Sanghi Industries after the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) gave it permission to do so in 2019. The original feasibility report by the Kerio Valley Development Authority dates back to 2010. The new plant will have a production capacity of 2.5Mt/yr.

However, this isn’t the only new clinker production capacity that Devki Group, which sells cement under the Simba Cement brand, is preparing to commission. Local media also reports that the company is also preparing to restart the former Athi River Mining Cement integrated plant at Bondora in Kaloleni, Kilifi County. After five months of trial runs the unit should be ready for full operation from April 2023. Devki Group also picked up this plant in 2019 following the long breakup of ARM Cement, after the latter producer entered financial administration back in mid-2018.

Devki Group started out in the steel sector but it has been steadily carving out a presence in the cement industry. The group opened its first cement grinding plant in 2013 and then built a 1.95Mt/yr integrated plant in Kajiado County, south of Nairobi, in 2018. Once the West Pokot plant is commissioned, the company will reportedly have a clinker production capacity of 7.5Mt/yr from three plants.

This kind of growth is making waves in the local cement sector. Since Global Cement Weekly covered the situation in September 2022 (GCW576), an argument has been brewing in Kenya over whether the country should import clinker or manufacture more of its own. This has moved to lobbying the government on whether the duty on imports of clinker should rise from 10% to 25%. Unsurprisingly, the country’s largest clinker producer, National Cement, even before the new plants are operational, has been a major advocate for putting up the import tariff. This carried over into 2023, when local press revealed the minutes of a meeting between the State Department of Industry and the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM), with input from the cement producers. Rai Cement, Bamburi Cement, Savannah Cement, Ndovu Cement and Riftcot were all against raising the tariff, saying that it would enable the largest clinker producers, National Cement and Mombasa Cement, to dominate the market. However, unlike the last such meeting, Mombasa Cement was said to be non-committal on the proposal to increase the duty. Despite the disagreement over the tariff, all of the cement companies imported clinker in 2021.

Graph 1: Rolling annual cement production in Kenya, 2019 - October 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

Rolling annual cement production in Kenya peaked at just over 10Mt in May and June 2022. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that monthly production started to fall on a year-on-year basis from July 2022. This is likely to be connected to the elections that took place in August 2022, although wider economic trends such as inflation and high input material prices may not have helped either. Despite this, cement production rose by 5% year-on-year to 8.02Mt in the first 10 months of 2022 from 7.65Mt in the same period in 2021.

Other recent news of note in Kenya includes the restart of clinker production at East African Portland Cement’s (EAPC) Athi River Plant in mid-2022. The upgrade was conducted as part of a general five-year upgrade and expansion campaign by the company. The next steps were announced in January 2023 with a stated intention to consider entering markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. The other story of note was in December 2022, when China-based Sinoma International Engineering announced that it had signed a deal with Savannah Cement to build a new 8000t/day clinker production line with a 2400t/day cement grinding unit, a 35MW captive power unit and a 13MW waste heat recovery unit. As is standard for Sinoma’s new contract releases, it said that the contract would become active once an “advance payment guarantee” had been received. Later in December 2022 the Kenya High Court intervened to stop two creditors from seizing assets from Savannah Cement and putting it into administration, although the court did acknowledge the company’s debts and a loan repayment default. In January 2023 Mauritius-based Barak Asset Recovery, another related creditor, was approved by the competition regulator to buy a majority stake in Savannah Cement. The current state of that new production line is unknown.

As the two stories above show, it is not just National Cement that is trying to move towards increased clinker production in Kenya. The whole situation is reminiscent of the time before Nigeria declared itself self-sufficient in cement in the early 2010s. Local producers became prominent and the market battle between producers and importers became public. Kenya’s range of different cement companies seem to be more diverse than Nigeria’s were, but a similar type of national interest argument may be rolled out by one side. The other parallel to note with Nigeria is that Dangote Cement is said to have attempted to buy National Cement previously and has also been trying to build its own plant in the country since the mid-2010s. Kenya’s demographics and location make it a prime place for this kind of producer-importer tussle. Let’s wait and see how much the situation has changed when the new plants open over the next six months.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Kenya: Cement producers recorded a 28% year-on-year increase in production in the first five months of 2021 to 3.35Mt from 2.65Mt in the first five months of 2020. The Business Daily newspaper has reported that the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics recorded a 27% increase in cement consumption to 3.35Mt from 2.64Mt. The increases follow a rise in infrastructure investment by the government, especially in the roads and dams segments. Increased credit requests by property developers also indicate a recovery in the private sector following the decline of the Covid-19 outbreak. Kenyan gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast at 6% in the 2021 full year.

Kenya: Data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics shows that cement production fell by 6% year-on-year to 1.46Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 1.55Mt in the same period in 2018. Cement consumption dropped by 3% to 1.46Mt from 1.50Mt. Cement consumption previously grew by 2.8% year-on-year to 5.9Mt in 2018 from 5.8Mt in 2017. However, production fell by 2.6% to 6.07Mt from 6.23Mt. Imports increased by around 50% to 23,000t but exports decreased by 63% to 0.14Mt from 0.39Mt, mainly due to a major drop in deliveries to Uganda and Tanzania.

Kenya: Cement production fell by 8.5% year-on-year to 5.64Mt in 2018 from 6.16Mt in 2017. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics also shows that consumption decreased by 5% to 5.49Mt from 5.79Mt. This follows drops in production and consumption since 2016. Local cement producers, including East African Portland Cement (EAPCC) and ARM Cement, have reported on-going financial difficulties since 2018.

Kenya: Cement consumption has fallen for the first time since 2000. It fell by 8.2% year-on-year to 6.2Mt in 2017 from 6.7Mt in 2016, according to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported on by the Daily Nation newspaper. Reduced demand for building materials in the construction sector occurred at the same time as a fall in the value of building plans approved in 2017.

ARM Cement’s declining fortunes this week may signal the end of the current growth cycle in the Kenyan cement industry. The cement producer posted a 20% year-on-year drop in its sales revenue to US$52m for the first half of 2017. Its financial returns have been turbulent since 2015. However, inward investment from the UK’s CDC Group in 2016 had appeared to help the company enabling it to pay of debts and even consider an upgrade project to the grinding capacity at its Athi River plant.

Graph 1: Cement production in Kenya for first half of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Graph 2: Cement consumption in Kenya for first five months of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Unfortunately it now appears that the Kenyan cement market may have peaked in 2016. As can be seen from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures in Graph 1 and 2, production hit a high of 3.31Mt in the first half of 2016 and it has fallen to 3.18Mt for the same period in 2017. Consumption too has fallen, to 2.5Mt for the first five months of 2017. At the same time the value of building plans approved by the Nairobi City Council dropped by 12% to US$1.02bn for the first five months of 2017 with falls in both residential and non-residential applications although the decline in residential was more pronounced. One of the country’s larger infrastructure projects, the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Nairobi entered its final stage of construction towards the end of 2016 with the completion of track laying.

Bamburi Cement has also reported falling revenue and profit so far in 2017. Its turnover fell by 8% to US$170 and its profit decreased by 36% to US$18m for the half year. Bamburi blamed it on a contracting market, low private sector investment leading to residential sector issues, delays in some infrastructure projects and droughts. The drought also hit the company’s operating profit via higher energy costs. On the plus side though Bamburi’s subsidiary in neighbouring Uganda did record a good performance.

It’s likely that the general election in Kenya in early August 2017 has slowed down the construction industry through uncertainty about infrastructure investment and general fears about political unrest. Thankfully these latter concerns have appeared unfounded so far but the memory of the disorder following the poll in 2007, where over 1000 people died, remains acute. And of course the 2017 election is not over yet following the intervention of the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the first ballot and call for a second. A longer election period with the impending rerun will further add to the pressure on the construction and cement industries.

An industry report on East Africa in February 2017 by the Dyer & Blair Investment Bank fleshes out much of the situation in the region. One particular point it makes though is that, as it stands at present, building materials may be too expensive to grow the market fully. Dyer & Blair suggest that lower construction costs and more affordable home ownership methods might be the key to driving low end housing demands and in turn this might grow cement consumption.

With lots of new production capacity coming online both locally and in neighbouring countries such as Uganda and Ethiopia, the Kenyan cement market faces the dilemma of trying to balance the medium to long-term demographics with the picture on the ground. Low per capita cement consumption suggests growing markets but if the demand isn’t present in the short term then the impetus for cement producers to expand shrivels especially with aggressive imports, rising energy costs and growing local competition. Once the election period finishes the picture will be clearer but the boom times may have abated for now.

Kenya: ARM Cement’s revenue fell by 20% year-on-year to US$52m in the first half of 2017 from US$65m in the same period in 2016. Its loss for the period grew to US$14m from US$2.6m. Cement production dropped by 3.93% to 3.18Mt in the half year of 2017 according to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported by the Kenyan Star newspaper. Cement consumption also fell during the first five months of the year, by 2.34% to 2.5Mt.