Displaying items by tag: Ratings agency

Mexico: Cemex announced that it has reached full investment grade status after being upgraded to BBB- by rating agency Fitch Ratings. This follows Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings' upgrade announced in March 2024.

Fernando González, CEO of Cemex, said "Achieving investment grade is a milestone for Cemex. This rating is confirmation of both our strategy and our execution against it.”

India: Axis Bank subsidiary Axis Securities has predicted a 4 – 6% year-on-year drop in Indian cement sales volumes during the third quarter of the 2022 financial year, which ended on 31 December 2021. The Hindu newspaper has reported the reasons for the predicted drop as extended monsoons, especially in the south of the country, and a construction ban in the National Capital Region due to pollution. Monthly sales grew slightly year-on-year in December 2021.

Axis Securities has also forecast a revival of demand in the fourth-quarter, driven by infrastructure and housing projects. Overall, it expects national demand for cement to grow by 8 – 9% in the 2022 financial year.

UK: Fitch Ratings says it does not expect the financial profiles of cement producers to be changed by decarbonisation efforts in its rating horizon. The credit rating agency expects that regulatory scrutiny, investor pressure and societal awareness are likely to accelerate the building materials sector’s decarbonisation drive. However, it predicts that producers will pass on costs to consumers as there are no substitutes for its products. In addition, demand for building materials will grow, supported by increasing needs for infrastructure to cope with the transition to a low-carbon economy and the physical effects of climate change.

It added that, since there are no low carbon solution readily available, such improvements will require ‘significant’ investment and research. Fitch Ratings expect this to arrive after 2030 to meet the tight 2050 sustainability targets by both governments and companies. The cost of this may be large especially as government incentives to support it are, as yet, uncertain.

Fitch Ratings noted that the industry had made significant progress with an 18% reduction in the global average CO₂ intensity of cement production since 1990. However, due to growing demand for cement, the sector’s gross emissions have increased by 50%. It pointed out the large role China and India have to play in emissions reductions as they are the largest concrete producers in the world. However, Europe is seen as the most demanding region for decarbonisation regulations at present.

Fernando A González and Cemex took to the virtual airways this week with Cemex Day 2021. The investors’ update comprised the usual greatest hits package explaining how well everything is going: earnings growth and leverage levels about to hit desired targets, selective investments and divestments on the way, new production capacity round the corner and punchy sustainability goals turning up earlier than expected. Or at least that’s the way that chief executive officer González and the team told it.

To be fair to Cemex, it seems to be in a good place right now. It weathered 2020 well and now its first quarter results in 2021 compared to the same period in 2019, before coronavirus hit, are looking rosy with cement sales volumes growth of 9%. How much of that is attributable to pent up demand from 2020 remains to be seen though. Its strategy of focusing on markets in North America and Europe appears to have paid off in recent years with its competitors copying it as they have retreated from riskier climes and concentrated on core territories. Its obsession with righting the ratio between its debts and earnings is closer than ever to being realised, with a 4.07x net leverage ratio in 2020 and a target of 3x or lower planned for 2023. That last target is crucial both materially and psychologically for the company as it starts to put it back in the same financial field as its Western multinational competitors and opens up new investment opportunities.

From a production angle, the big news from the event was a 10Mt/yr cement production expansion project between now and 2023. This wasn’t quite as promising as it sounded, as just under half of this was attributed to legacy projects in Mexico, Colombia and the Philippines and some of the new projects had already been announced, but it does bookmark a move from divesting plants to upgrading and building new ones.

The new projects comprise an additional 5.7Mt/yr capacity from on-going debottlenecking, new integrated plants, new grinding plants and reopening idle or mothballed plants. During the event José Antonio González, the Executive Vice President of Strategic Planning & Business Development broke it down into 3.5Mt in Mexico, consisting of 1.5Mt additional grinding capacity at the integrated Tepeaca plant, a 0.5Mt/yr expansion at the integrated Huichapan plant and 1.5Mt/yr from bringing both idled lines back into production at the CPN Hermosilla plant in Senora to support the US market. That last one notably was partly announced in February 2021. In Europe and the US the group plans to add 1.2Mt/yr including expanding grinding capacity at two plants in Europe with details to be announced later. Finally, the company plans to add 1Mt/yr of additional capacity in South American including restarting an idled 0.5Mt/yr kiln at a plant in the Dominican Republic and building a new 0.5Mt/yr grinding mill in Guatemala.

Cemex has also stepped up its target reduction in CO₂ emissions to below 475kg CO₂/t of cementitious material, an approximately 40% reduction in CO₂ emissions compared to 1990 levels, by 2030. The previous target for 2030 of 520 kg CO₂ has been brought forward to 2025. This compares to LafargeHolcim’s similar target of 475kg CO₂/t by 2030, HeidelbergCement’s target of 500kg CO₂/t by 2030 and CRH’s target of 530kg CO₂/t by 2030. The group is planning to spend US$60m/yr on its decarbonisation projects. This compares to a spend of around US$140m/yr on its 10Mt/yr cement production capacity expansion drive over the next three years. Or to put it another way, the group is spending more on growing than sustainability.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good public relations for Cemex this week with the news in the Colombian press that one of its former executives is set to be investigated by the authorities over his alleged involvement in the ongoing Maceo cement plant corruption case. The background to this one is that in 2016 Cemex fired several senior staff members, and the local subsidiary’s chief executive resigned, in relation to the building of a new integrated plant at Maceo. This followed an internal audit and investigation into payments worth around US$20m made to a non-governmental third party in connection with the acquisition of the land, mining rights and benefits of the tax free zone for the project. Legal proceedings followed in Colombia and the US. Many large companies have legacy problems to deal with. Just take LafargeHolcim’s continued connection to Lafarge Syria’s conduct in the early 2010s. At the time of writing the Maceo plant is still yet to start operation and is likely to be one of the ongoing projects mentioned above.

Cemex’s second quarter results are due to arrive towards the end of July 2021 but the group is presenting an upbeat image. Sales are up, debts are down, divestments are out and expansions are in. Confidence is important for a multinational trying to convince the rating agencies to give it back its investment grade, so whether this is strictly true or not it certainly knows how to talk the talk. One question going forward at least is how strictly Cemex will want to stick to its core markets if the good times really have returned?

India: Production capacity utilisation in the cement industry is expected to remain below 70% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year due to new plant projects in the next two years. Credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil all forecast relatively low demand for cement compared to a decade-high of 13% in the 2019 – 2020 period, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production rose by 0.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019 – 2020 period. However, production growth has hastened since then. The ratings agencies offer different outlooks on anticipated profits look forward.

Indonesia: The Fitch credit rating agency says that cement sales are starting to rise due to increased investment in infrastructure projects but that overcapacity will continue to limit improvements in cement producers' profitability. Indonesian Cement Association's (ASI) data show that domestic cement sales volumes rose by 7% year-on-year in May 2017 to 5.5Mt. Sales volumes for January to May 2017 increased by 4% to 25.3Mt.

Fitch has attributed this growth to a 13% growth in sales of bulk cement, which is used mainly for infrastructure-related developments. By region, the main driver of the increase was in central Java, where toll road projects are underway and where sales rose by 17%. Demand for bagged cement, which is generally used for property developments, rose by 5% in May 2017.

Germany: The rating agency S&P Global Ratings has assigned a BBB-/A-3 company rating to HeidelbergCement. The classification in the Investment Grade is associated in particular with the strong business profile after the Italcementi acquisition and an improved creditworthyness. It attributed the decision to the strong market position and wide geographic diversification of HeidelbergCement following the acquisition of Italcementi.

“We are very happy about the positive rating decision by S&P,” said Bernd Scheifele, CEO of HeidelbergCement. “It is proof of the strong operating business of HeidelbergCement and the continuous improvement of our capital structure and cashflow in the last years. With the classification in the Investment Grade, we have achieved one of our core strategic targets. As a consequence, we are very well positioned to significantly enlarge our investor base and improve our financing conditions.”

S&P also upgraded the issuance ratings of Italcementi from BB/B to BBB-/A-3. The outlook on all ratings is stable.

India: Government plans to increase spending on infrastructure projects will benefit LafargeHolcim according to Moody's Investor Service. The second largest cement producer in India will gain from uneven regional demand, with a much larger scale and more prominent operations in northern India, where it sells almost 42% of its local cement volume.

LafargeHolcim and other European cement manufacturers with a presence in India are likely to benefit if the Indian government's plans to ramp up infrastructure spending happen in the next 12 to 18 months. The 2016 Union Budget contained plans to hike public infrastructure spending, especially on roads, which could revive stagnant cement demand in the country.

According to the government's 12th Five Year Plan (2012 - 17) investment in infrastructure should increase from 7.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 to 9% in 2017. However, cement demand for government-funded projects has been weak in the last four years with many construction schemes delayed or put on hold. As a result, while infrastructure investment will be a key growth driver, the timing of such investment remains uncertain.

However, Moody’s also noted that European multinational cement producers based in the south of the country with limited geographical spread would be more exposed to local overcapacity in this region. This included HeidelbergCement, Italcementi and CRH.