Displaying items by tag: Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia: Mattar Alzahrani has resigned as the chief executive officer of Hail Cement. He will leave the post at the end of August 2018 to take up another position elsewhere. Ahmed Sulaiman Abdul Aziz Al Rajhi has also resigned as an independent member of the company’s board.

No consolidation has happened yet in the Saudi Arabian cement industry but exports have started to be announced. Yanbu Cement signed an export deal in March 2018 to despatch 1Mt of clinker and 0.5Mt of cement from one year from 1 April 2018. Prior to that, Al Jouf Cement Company started a contract to export 72.000t/yr to Jordan from late February 2018. Earlier still, Bahrain was expected to benefit from a lifting of cement export tariffs at the end of January 2018.

Its early days yet but some of sort of action is starting to happen about the country’s falling cement sales. If export deals are in the early stages of being set following the lifting of the ban, then local movements of cement have intensified. As Al Rajhi Capital reports in its latest market update, that producers have been forced by low sales and high inventory levels to take action. It says that cement companies have started to sell products in different parts of the country than they do normally leading to a ‘price war’. The financial services and analytical company has pinpointed the central region as the key battleground as company market shares have fallen over the last six months as northern producers have moved in.

Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to March 2018. Source: Yamama Cement.

Cement sales fell by 15% year-on-year to 11.8Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 13.7Mt in the same period in 2017. This is the first time in recent years that sales did not rise from the fourth quarter to the following first quarter. Not a good sign. Despite the bad news, a few producers did mange to increases their deliveries in the first quarter, including Saudi Cement, Hail Cement, Umm Al Qura Cement and United Cement.

Bizarrely, into this sales environment, plans for the long delayed Al Baha Cement cement plant project have re-emerged. The project previously has received coverage at various stages over the years. This time it has reportedly gained a licence to set up the company and it hopes to start tendering for the build in the second half of 2018. The investors may want to leave it a little longer given the current state of the Saudi cement industry.

Saudi Arabia: Badr Jawhar has resigned as the chief executive officer of Najran Cement for personal reasons.

In a separate announcement, Najran Cement has appointed Turki Bin Ali Al Shanifi to its board of directors. Turki Bin Ali Al Shanifi holds a degree in Computer Science, specialising in Information Systems and has over 20 years of experience in working with private sector companies in leadership positions. His appointment follows the resignation of Abdulwahab Bin Saud Al Babtain as an independent member of the board.

Arabian Cement Company had some choice words for a contractor this week when it blamed it in a bourse statement for a delay for a new mill at its Rabigh plant. The project has been pushed back to the third quarter of 2018 from the fourth quarter of 2017. The second phase of the plan, to build a new clinker production line, has also been placed under review.

The contractor may have given Arabian Cement an excuse to put a question mark over its new line, but the market reality has been stark. Also this week, Saudi Cement Company reported that its net profit had fallen by 51.5% year-on-year, to US$92.3m in the first nine months of 2017 compared to US$190.4m in the previous period. It blamed falling sales.

Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to September 2017. Source: Yamama Cement.

As Graph 1 shows, cement sales volumes in Saudi Arabia have been dropping since 2015. Sales fell by 5.3% year-on-year to 10.5Mt in the third quarter of 2017 from 10.9Mt in the same period in 2016. Year to date figures show a worse trend with a drop of 17.4% to 35.2Mt in the first nine months of 2017 compared to 42.7Mt in the same period in 2016. This decline has accelerated compared to a decrease of 5.4% from 45.1Mt in 2015 for the first three quarters.

Analyst Al Rajhi Capital provided some context to this situation in its September 2017 report on the August 2017 sales figures. It reported particularly steep declines in cement sales volumes of over 35% for Northern Cement, Najran cement and Hail Cement for the first eight months of the year. However, some producers - including City, Qassim, Yanbu and Al Safwa - did manage modest gains. Overall though the financial services company did not expect any pickup for the second half of 2017.

Last time this column covered the kingdom’s cement industry in early 2016 it asked when the government was going to relieve the export ban. Cement production was high, inventory was pilling up and infrastructure spending was falling. The ban was subsequently lifted but commentators worried that it would be too restrictive to have much effect due to tariffs and volume restrictions. A steady stream of cement producers has applied for export licences since then, but exports have not alleviated the situation. With inventory remaining high for the producers, current export policy failing to help and the local construction market subdued, it is unlikely that anything is going to change soon for the local cement industry. In fact it may even get worse if the government decides to revise its energy price policy later in 2017 or in early 2018, adding to the input cost burden of the producers.

Talk of market consolidation in this kind of market environment seems inevitable. This is exactly what happened earlier in the month when Jihad Al Rashid, the head of the Saudi National Committee for Cement Companies, said to local press that the local market only needed four large cement producers rather than the 17 companies it has at present. The question at this stage seems to be when, rather than if, will this process start.

Saudi Arabia: Hail Cement has appointed Abdul Aziz Bin Saad Al Saud as its chairman. The move follows the resignation of Saud Bin Abdul Mohsen Al Saud in the role, according to Reuters.

Saudi Arabia: Tabuk Cement has appointed Saeed Bin Saeed Obaid as its new chairman. He succeeds Khalid Bin Saleh Al-Shathry.

A Sinoma subsidiary was raking in the big bucks this week with the announcement that it had booked a Euro1.05bn order with the Egyptian government. The order was for six 6000t/day cement production lines plus assorted maintenance contracts from Chengdu Design and Research Institute of Building Materials Industry (CDI).

The order caps a busy month for Sinoma. At the start of June, another subsidiary, CBMI, said that it had picked up deals to build two new lines in Algeria for Groupe des Ciments d’Algérie. Around the same time another project in the country, a joint venture between Lafarge Algeria and Souakri Group, revealed that it had started commissioning its mill. Other assorted cement projects announced so far in 2016 include a waste heat recovery unit for Thai Pride Cement in Thailand, a conversion to coal burning at South Valley Cement in Egypt and various orders for mills via Loesche for Sinoma projects in Vietnam.

The scale of that latest Egyptian order becomes apparent when one looks at Sinoma, or China National Materials Group Corporation’s, annual results. It reported revenue of US$8.08bn in 2015, a slight decrease from US$8.38bn in 2014. Those six lines represent 13% of the group’s entire turnover in 2015. That’s one humongous order. The last time Sinoma signed a cement deal on this magnitude was in August 2015 when Nigerai’s Dangote placed an order at a value of US$1.49bn.

Elsewhere on the balance sheet for 2015, its profit fell markedly by 25% year-on-year to US$150m from US$200m. However, its new order intake grew by 14% to US$5.1bn. Overseas orders accounted for over three quarters of this or US$4.32bn, its highest level on record. This compares to its rival FLSmidth’s new order intake of US$2.8bn in 2015. It declared that it would continue to seek business outside of China in line with the country’s ‘One belt, one road’ policy focusing on Central Asia and South America.

This growth by Chinese engineering companies on the world stage may have been stymied in 2015. The Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (VDMA) in Germany reported in April 2016 that the members of its Industrial Plant Manufacturers’ Group (AGAB) had booked orders of Euro19.5bn in 2015, a similar figure to its orders in 2014. This compared to a drop of 63% of large plant orders (not just cement) in 2014 from Euro5.29bn in 2013. AGAB saw opportunity in service industries for its German members as markets stalled in Russia and Brazil, and China’s property market faced its own problems. Research by UBS Evidence Lab, as reported by the Financial Times in May 2016, has taken a different view, suggesting that Chinese construction quarry equipment manufacturers such as Sany, Zoomlion and XCMG were likely to expand their market share outside of China to 15% by 2025. At present the research pegged them at 7%.

Expansion comes with its risks though. In late May 2016 Sinoma International Engineering reported details of a tax dispute it was suffering in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi subsidiary of the company was levelled with a request for unpaid back taxes from 2006 and 2008. At the time it was appealing against a bill of US$18m. In a changing global marketplace some things never change. Global success it seems is taxed.

The Saudi Cement Company has been complaining in recent weeks about market conditions in Saudi Arabia. Following a meeting of its board of directors in early February 2016, it decided to temporally a 3500t/day production line and halt further upgrades. At the meeting it blamed the local market and the country’s export ban.

In January 2016, the cement producer reported that its net profit had fallen by 35% year-on-year to US$49m in the fourth quarter of 2015 from US$76m in the same period in 2014. The trend for the year as a whole was less pronounced but still downward. Its net profit fell by 14% to US$257m.

Saudi Cement’s experience may be indicative if one looks at wider figures for the industry. Cement output is high, inventory is piling up and government infrastructure spending is falling. If the country’s industry isn’t feeling the pain right now surely it must be wondering what might happen next.

Figure 1 – Saudi Arabian cement production and inventory, 2011 – 2015

As Figure 1 shows data from Yamama Cement for the industry as a whole. Cement output has been steadily growing over the last five years since 2011 to the current declared level of 61.5Mt. However, in the background, cement inventory has also been growing. The particular jump appears to be between 2012 and 2014 when the stock grew from 6.4Mt to 21.5Mt. In mid-2013 King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud issued an urgent command ordering 10Mt of cement to cope with a local shortage at that time. Subsequently cement producers were asked to build a 'strategic' reserve of two months inventory at each plant. It looks like they took that message to heart.

Alongside this the Saudi Ministry of Finance slashed its Infrastructure and Transportation budget down to more than half to US$6.37bn in 2016 from US$16.8bn in 2015. Local media reported that value of new contracts won by the Saudi contractor Abdullah A M Al Khodari & Sons in 2015 fell by nearly 50% in the lead-up to the 2016 budget announcement in December 2015. Previously, Al Khodari had typically earned about 95% of its revenue from government-related contracts.

It should be noted that Saudi Cement is based in the east of the country and some regional variation is possible here. The country’s other major cement producers - Yamama Cement, Yanbu Cement and Southern Province Cement have all reported that their net profits rose in 2015. Yet the inventory keeps piling up.

The other reason than Saudi Cement pointed out for its woes was the country’s cement export ban. The government introduced an export ban on cement exports in February 2012. Since then local cement producers have asked on several occasions to have the ban repealed. Most recently the chairman of Saudi Arabia's Cement Association asked in March 2015 to lift the ban so that his producers could supply Egypt with 6Mt of cement. At the time, as now, the chairman would have been well aware of all the cement lying around.

Local press reported in late November 2015 that government bodies were considering cutting the ban on cement exports. The ban was originally introduced in Saudi Arabia to keep prices down and production flowing for large infrastructure projects built using oil revenue. These same projects were designed to wean the economy off its reliance oil revenue. With investment falling as the price of oil stays low the cement industry is in a tight spot. The government and cement producers will need to think very carefully what the consequences are of opening the gates for Saudi cement exports.

Saudi Arabia: Halla Waleed Al-Juffali has been appointed as a member of the Board of Directors (independent director) of the Saudi Cement Company. Her appointment is subject to shareholder approval. She replaces Waleed Ahmed Al-Juffali, who resigned with effect from 4 February 2016 due to health reasons.

Halla holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business administration degree, majoring in International Business, from the International University of America in London. She has been a director with Ebrahim Al-Juffali and Brothers and Walid Juaffali & Partners. Halla has previously worked as a business analyst for British, European and Chinese investment markets.

At today's official launch of LafargeHolcim, CEO Eric Olsen was asked to comment on the group's position in Iran. It doesn't have one, but that won't necessarily always be the case given events in Austria this week.

On Tuesday 14 July 2015, Iran and the P5+1 countries (US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) agreed an historic deal to limit Iranian nuclear activity in return for a significant lifting of existing trade sanctions at a meeting in Vienna. The country's cement industry will be delighted by this agreement. The talks, in progress since 2006, could mark what has been termed a 'new chapter' in relations between Iran and the rest of the world by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. For his part, US President Barack Obama stated that the deal would ensure that 'every pathway to a nuclear weapon is cut off' for Iran, but critics from the US, Iran, Israel and elsewhere, suggest that cutting all routes will not be possible. They are alarmed and have warned that the deal could lead to an arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia, amid increasing animosity in the Middle East.

While the geopolitical implications of the deal are huge, the lifting of trade restrictions will greatly improve Iran's ability to deal internationally. This includes allowing increased oil exports. An article by Reuters anticipates that Iranian oil production could increase drastically from around 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) at present, possibly to its former peak of 3mbpd. (What this might do to the global oil price could be the subject of an entirely separate column). The easing of banking restrictions will make Iranian products more competitive and increase trade in many sectors.

Against this backdrop sits the Iranian cement industry, the world's third or fourth largest by production in 2014, depending on your source. It has an incredible 84.4Mt/yr of cement production capacity in a country of 77.5 million people. Assuming that it could produce and consume all of that cement at home, this would represent consumption of around 1100kg/capita/yr, far above the 600-800kg/capita/yr rate that is typical of a rapidly-developing economy.

Of course, Iran has not been consuming anything like this level of cement recently. According to figures released by its Employers Guild Association this week, Iran made 66.4Mt of cement in its 1393 calendar year, which ended on 21 March 2015. Assuming the above capacity, this gives Iran a cement utilisation capacity of around 78%.

Much of the cement made in Iran was exported in 2014 and so far in 2015. The country exported an incredible 18.4Mt/yr of cement and clinker in the year to 21 March 2015, up from 18.8Mt a year earlier. A large amount of this cement was available at low cost, to the extent that Iran has been accused (along with Pakistan) of dumping cement in the Middle East and East Africa. (Pakistani producers have even pointed out that Iranian cement is making inroads into the Afghan market, more traditionally a target for exports from Pakistan).

So what might happen to the cement trade dynamic in the region? Some suggest that the easing of sanctions can only increase the potential for Iranian cement imports in the region. Trade should become easier, facilitating exports.

Indeed, this is a factor, but it is only part of the equation. Instead, it is likely that, having earned foreign exchange via increased oil sales, Iran will be able to spend more at home. Reuters anticipates that demand for steel and cement will skyrocket as the country undertakes much-needed construction and infrastructure works. This situation would be similar to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. How Saudi Arabia reacts to this, both politically and in terms of cement trade, will be of high interest in the region and around the world.

Instead of increasing cement exports, the effect of the lifting of sanctions may decrease them. This will surely be welcome news to local producers currently being undercut in East Africa, as well as exporters in Pakistan, India and elsewhere. Could Pakistan even find itself exporting to Iran? If a US-Iran nuclear deal is possible, anything can happen...