Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Vietnam: Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) members sold 77.5Mt of cement in the first nine months of 2021, up by 3.5% year-on-year. Vietnamese cement exports rose by 19% over the same period, to 31.9Mt. This corresponds to 41% of total sales. State-owned Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM) exported 14.5Mt of cement, 45% of national cement exports. Viet Nam News has reported that the country ended the nine-month period with 3.6Mt of cement and clinker in inventory.

Vietnam: SCG Packaging plans to invest US$354m to establish a new 370,000t/yr packaging plant in Vinh Phuc province. The Tuoi Tre newspaper has reported that operations at the plant will commence in early 2024. The product will be Vina Kraft Paper brand bags. The Siam Cement Group (SCG) subsidiary will finance the expansion through cash and debt.

Vietnam: Member of the Vietnam Cement Association produced 70.7Mt of cement and clinker in the first eight months of 2021, up by 4% year-on-year from 27.2Mt in the corresponding period of 2020. Its exports rose by 12% to 27.2Mt. Viet Nam News has reported that the main importers of Vietnamese cement and clinker were China, the Philippines and Bangladesh. During the period, domestic demand fell by 5% to 43.5Mt.

It’s time for a macroscopic view of the Chinese cement sector this week with the release of the half-year financial results by some of the larger Chinese cement producers. On the national level the picture so far in 2021 has been one of continued recovery from the coronavirus lockdowns at the start of the year and then a slowing market as state controls on real estate speculation started to take effect. However, poor weather in the spring and mounting raw material prices appear to have compounded the effects of the real estate regulations, leading to price falls.

Cement output data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China in Graph 1 shows that local production took a knock in the first quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic and this strongly recovered in the same period in 2021. The market recovered fast in mid-2020 and so the year-on-year growth for the second quarter was less in 2021. Output on a monthly basis remained ahead year-on-year from April 2020 and stayed ahead until May 2021. However, output in June 2021 was behind the figure in June 2020 and the figure for July 2021 was behind both July 2020 and July 2019.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 – mid-2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The Chinese Cement Association (CCA) was lamenting falling cement prices at the start of July 2021. It blamed the situation on slowing infrastructure development in some regions, increasing government restrictions on real estate development, especially poor mid-year weather and higher input prices such as for steel. China Resources Cement (CRC) expanded upon the point about increasing real estate regulations in its financial results for the first half of 2021 explaining that the Chinese government has been promoting a policy that aims to ensure that “residential properties are not for speculation” including controls on the financing of real estate. Later in mid-August 2021 the CCA reported that prices were recovering in east and central-southern regions although the situation remained poor in Guizhou province with shipments down to 60% of normal levels. Production control measures are expected to be implemented to stabilise the situation.

Graph 2: Sales revenue of large Chinese cement producers in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Company reports.

On the corporate side the sales revenue from some of the large Chinese cement producers mostly show the usual gap-tooth pattern that coronavirus has created everywhere as the market recovered. Notably Anhui Conch managed to avoid falling sales year-on-year in the first half of 2020. However, the CCA’s observation above about rising input costs is visible in the falling profits of some (but not all) of the companies covered here. For example, Anhui Conch’s net profit fell by 7% year-on-year to US$2.32bn in the first half of 2021. It blamed this on a significant rise in the price of raw coal. CRC also reported falling profits attributable to increased production costs.

CNBM reported an increase to cement and clinker sales volumes of 7.6% to 177Mt and concrete sales volumes by 13.4% to 52Mm³. It noted that, “In the first half of 2021, the national cement market showed the characteristics of high price level fluctuation adjustment.” From January to April 2021 local fiscal policy boosted demand for cement but from May 2021 continuous heavy rainfall and increasing bulk commodity prices slowed infrastructure project development. Anhui Conch’s cement and clinker sales volumes for both production and trading grew by 11.5% to 208Mt. It reported stable market demand in eastern, central and southern regions but noted falling prices in the west.

Looking ahead, two issues, among many, to consider are carbon trading and imports. The former has been coming for a while and was launched formally online nationally in mid-July 2021 for the power generation industry. The carbon price was nearly Euro7/t in late July 2021 in China compared to around Euro53/t in the European Union. Cement and steel are expected to join the Chinese national scheme in the next phase although analysts believe that issues such as data gathering, permit allocation rules, accounting standards, sector reduction targets and related financial support all need to be improved before this can happen. Imports are a connected issue and it has been interesting in recent months to hear financial analysts point out the risks, for example, of major exporting nations such as Vietnam relying on China so much. The CCA reckons that China imported 33.4Mt of clinker in 2020, an increase of 47% year-on-year, with 60% of this derived from Vietnam. With the Chinese government trying to tackle cement production overcapacity and meet growing environmental targets, imports look set to become a ‘hot ticket’ issue. In this context it is telling to see talk from the CCA of ensuring standards for imports such as verified carbon emissions. Naturally, the imports that could be trusted the most will probably be the ones from plants that Chinese cement producers have built themselves overseas. As waste importers into China found out previously, relying heavily on one market with strong state controls carries considerable risks. Cement exporters in South-East Asia take note.

Vietnam: SSI Securities says that the local cement sector faces a ‘huge’ risk due to its over-dependence on export markets, particularly its reliance on China. The securities company reports that cement shipments have risen due to China’s current investment policies on limiting the output of its own cement plants and increasing imports from foreign countries, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. China was the largest buyer of Vietnamese cement from 2017 to 2019. In 2020 China scooped up 57% of Vietnam’s combined cement and clinker exports. This represented 22% of the country’s total sales.

However, SSI Securities has warned that exports to China are unlikely to grow as demand stabilises. It expects a fall of 20 – 25% in the short to medium term as China stops its infrastructure stimulus packages. The brokerage company also noted that the sector’s second biggest export destination, the Philippines, has accused Vietnam of dumping cement.

Thailand: Siam City Cement says that coronavirus-related public health measures reduced demand for cement towards the end of the second quarter of 2021. The group noted that the domestic market for cement ‘softened’ despite strong sales overseas in Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Its overall net sales fell by 3.6% year-on-year to US$616m in the first half of 2021 from US$639m in the same period in 2020. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 4.4% to US$142m from US$149m. It also reported reduced sales from its ready-mixed concrete and aggregate business lines due to the pandemic’s effects on construction markets and the related closures of construction worker camps.

Vietnam: The Ministry of Finance has proposed increasing the export tariff for clinker to 10% from 5%. The ministry said that exports of cement and clinker were not sustainable as they use non-renewable resources, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. It added that cement producers also benefit from low electricity prices. Customs data shows that the country exported nearly 33Mt of cement and clinker in 2020. 22Mt or 73% of this total consisted of clinker.

Vietnam: State-owned Vicem’s cement and clinker sales grew by 8% year-on-year to 12.7Mt in the first half of 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that the company recorded cement and clinker production volumes of 14.8Mt, up by 7%. Its 2021 full-year production targets are 30Mt of cement and clinker sales, up by 5%, and production of 26Mt of cement, up by 8%, and 22Mt of clinker, up by 1%. The producer recorded sales of US$709m in the first half of 2021, up by 5%. Its profit before tax rose by 23% to US$54.4m.

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) has reported a 27% year-on-year rise in cement and clinker exports to 21.0Mt in the first half of 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that the value of cement exports rose by 32% to US$812m. The growth was attributed to China’s environmental policies and the promotion of clinker imports.

Philippines: The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has launched a new investigation into imports of cement, currently subject to safeguarding tariffs of US$0.20/bag. The investigation follows a request by Cemex Philippines, Holcim Philippines and Republic Cement. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that the Vietnam National Cement Association has asked the DTI and the Philippine cement industry to consider whether imports from Vietnam did real damage. In 2020, Vietnam’s export cement prices fell by 15% year-on-year. Its excess production of cement was 36Mt during the year, and its clinker prices were 20% below the regional average.