Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Vietnam: State-owned Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem) has projected that national full-year cement production will rise by 1.7% to 118Mt. Meanwhile, the cement market leader believes that demand will rise by 5.4% to 68.3Mt in 2023. This corresponds to an oversupply of 73%, compared to 78% in 2022.

Việt Nam News has reported that the government recorded a 7% year-on-year decline in Vietnamese cement production to 43Mt and a 10% drop in demand to 39Mt in the first half of 2023.

The close of the first half of 2023 brought the latest crop of seasonal cement data from the Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA). Vietnam sold 61.4Mt of cement and clinker during the first half of 2023, up by 2.7% year-on-year.¹ Graph 1 (below) tracks the progress of full-year Vietnamese cement and clinker sales over the six years up to 2022, as well as the most recent half-year.

Graph  1 - Vietnamese annual cement production, January 2017 – June 2023

The first half of 2023 marks the first half-year in which lockdown restrictions have been absent in both Vietnam and its main export market, China, since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.² Vietnam was especially hard-hit: it implemented the first lockdown outside of China in March 2020, and has recorded the 13th most Covid-19 cases of any country up to July 2023. Then, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused uncertainties for cement producers and importers all around the world. Yet the price of imported coal across Southeast Asia had returned to pre-war levels by the end of June 2023.³ This indicates that the first half of 2023 may represent a ‘typical’ first half for the Vietnamese cement industry, for the first time this decade. During the 2010s, this meant growth margins of over 10% year-on-year.

During the first half of 2023, Vietnam’s sales volumes grew by 30% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 47.1Mt in the first half of 2019, confirming the industry trend of rapid capacity expansion. Just in the course of the half year, Vietnam’s integrated cement capacity rose by 7.9% to 123Mt/yr.⁴ It previously rose by 6.9% year-on-year to 114Mt/yr in 2022. That year, first-half cement sales also grew by 6.9% year-on-year, to 59.8Mt from 55.9Mt. In the first half of 2023, capacity growth has outstripped the country’s sales growth, of 2.7% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam exported 15.7Mt of cement and clinker in the first half of 2023, 26% of its total despatches.⁵ This corresponds to a decline of 31% year-on-year from 22.7Mt (38% of despatches) in the first half of 2022 and a rise of 0.5% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 15.6Mt (33%) in the first half of 2019.

Chinese construction is the lynchpin in the Vietnamese cement industry’s current growth model. Over successive Five-Year Plans, it has consumed increasing volumes of clinker from Vietnam, as well as cement, at diminishing prices. This strategy overreached itself in the first quarter of 2023, more than a year into an on-going Chinese property market slump, when the value of Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to the country fell by 95% year-on-year, to US$11.4m.⁶

By lowering prices, Vietnam’s cement sector charts a careful course within the contested waters of global trade rules, but it has run aground before. Most recently, from the start of 2023, the Philippines attached tariffs of up to 28% (and up to 55% for blended cement) to Vietnamese cement from 11 different producers.⁷ The Philippines Tariff Commission had found that ‘dumped’ cement from Vietnam – constituting over 50% of cement imports over the 18 months up to the end of 2020 – threatened the domestic industry. The failure to diversify its markets is a further sign that Vietnam’s current positioning in the cement and clinker trade is, at best, medium-term.

From October 2023, cement entering the European Union (EU) will become subject to extra taxes under the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).⁸ The EU is a relatively small trade partner for Vietnam, but the longer-term effect of this policy will be to replicate itself in the statute books of other nations and trade blocs, beginning in the Global North. With forecast lignite imports of 70 – 75Mt to Vietnam in 2023 – 2026, opportunities for cement exports from Vietnam, and countries like it, are diminishing.

The best situation for Vietnam would be accelerated growth in its domestic consumption base. The government is attempting to trigger a construction boom with its 2023 budget, which includes US$5bn in residential construction funding. Meanwhile, full-year infrastructure spending will rise by 25% year-on-year.⁹ To this end, it also needs to keep the cement price low. From 1 January 2023, Vietnamese exporters paid a tax of 10% of value on shipments of cement and clinker, instead of the previous 5% rate. If successful, this will nourish booming consumption with booming, and cheap, supply. Vietnam is grafting its Chinese model back onto the domestic market.

Producers will keep exporting. In May 2023, Nghi Son Cement Corporation despatched a first shipment of 31,500t of cement to the US. Nghi Son Cement Corporation’s cement, produced with fly ash, is clearly considered by the company and its owners to have some long-term marketability in the US. Said owners include Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement, which produces cement in the US via its CalPortland subsidiary.

In Vietnam, the cement industry has undergone a period of unparalleled growth, fuelled by exports. It can now reinvest the proceeds in establishing a self-sufficient construction sector around an ever more sustainable cement industry, ready to become the first choice across new markets as they arise in Southeast Asia and beyond.

1. Global Cement, 'Vietnam's first-half cement production declines in 2023,' 29 June 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15941-vietnam-s-first-half-cement-production-declines-in-2023

2. The Observer, ‘‘It was all for nothing’: Chinese count cost of Xi’s snap decision to let Covid rip,’ 29 January 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/chinese-cost-covid-xi-lockdowns-china

3. Reuters, ‘Column: Asia thermal coal prices get the blues from Europe and LNG,’ 20 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-thermal-coal-prices-get-blues-europe-lng-russell-2023-06-20/

4. Việt Nam News, ‘Record input costs thwart cement groups,’ 12 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?mod=SavedSearch_SelectSearch&page_driver=SavedSearch_SelectSearch#./!?&_suid=168119771197707004455190223307

5. Việt Nam News, ‘Industry: Vietnam’s Cement, Clinker Exports +82.2% y/y to $116M in Jun: GSO,’ 4 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?page_driver=searchBuilder_Search#./!?&_suid=168908188871006418595282713178

6. Vietnam Investment Review, ‘A strenuous year ahead in cement,’ 9 May 2023, https://vir.com.vn/a-strenuous-year-ahead-in-cement-101707.html

7. Global Cement, 'Philippines Department of Trade and Industry to impose anti-dumping duties on cement from Vietnam,' 22 December 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15084-philippines-department-of-trade-and-industry-to-impose-anti-dumping-duties-on-cement-from-vietnam

8. Global Cement, 'Too taxing? How the CBAM affects cement exporters to the EU,’ 29 June 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/14316-too-taxing-how-the-cbam-affects-cement-exporters-to-the-eu

9. Customs News, ‘Cement enterprises expect a "brighter" second half of 2023
https://english.haiquanonline.com.vn/cement-enterprises-expect-a-brighter-second-half-of-2023-25368.html

Vietnam: The People’s Committee of Hoa Binh Province authorised Xuan Khiem Group to begin building its Xuan Son cement plant earlier in July 2023. Việt Nam News has reported that the upcoming plant will commence operations in late 2024, and will have a capacity of 2.3Mt/yr.

Vietnam: Tan Quang Cement says that it fell short of its first-half 2023 cement production target by 80,000t at it 800,000t/yr Trang Da cement plant in Tuyen Quang. The plant will ‘presently’ enter a shutdown period for maintenance. Việt Nam News has reported that the producer attributed the shortfall in production to low demand, amid general national overcapacity.

Vietnam: Vietnamese cement producers manufactured 61.4Mt of cement in the first half of 2023. This corresponds to a year-on-year rise of 2.7% from levels reported by Global Cement one year ago of 59.8Mt during the first half of 2022. Việt Nam News has reported that full-year production was 116Mt in 2022, up by 5.8% year-on-year from full-year 2021 levels.

Vietnam: Nghi Son Cement Corporation has despatched its first batch of cement to customers in the US. The shipment consisted of 31,500t of cement produced at the company's Thanh Hoa cement plant. Việt Nam News has reported that the producer moved into the US market due to declining cement demand domestically.

Nghi Son Cement Corporation is a joint venture of Vietnam Cement Corporation (Vicem), Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement and Japan-based Mitsubishi Materials.

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) expects members to record a 13% drop in their gross profit in 2023 due to a 3% rise in electricity prices. At the same time, it expects cement demand to fall due to the slowing of residential construction activity. During the first quarter of 2023, Vietnamese cement exports to China fell by 90% in value terms.

Việt Nam News has reported that electricity costs constitute 15% of operating expenses for the Vietnamese cement sector.

Vietnam: Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) members produced 40Mt of cement during the first four months of 2023. The volume corresponds to a 4.8% drop from four-month 2022 levels.

Vietnam produced 116Mt of cement in 2022, up by 5.8% year-on-year from 2021 levels.

Vietnam: Cash flow issues have been noted as a risk for local cement producers struggling to create enough revenue to continue operations. Revenue is reliant on output, local consumption and exports but these are all falling with raw material costs rising and no improvement forecast for the real estate in the short-term, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. Examples of cement companies reporting a loss include Quang Ninh Construction and Cement in the fourth quarter of 2022. An estimate by the Quang Ninh Tax Department also showed that the company owed more than US$4.m in July 2021, making it the largest debtor in the province’s building materials industry. Quang Son Cement, based in Thanh Hoa province, also reported an after-tax loss of US$13.5m in 2022.

Data from the Vietnam Association for Building Materials (VABM) shows that the cement industry’s production capacity reached 114Mt/yr in 2022, with an estimated output of 93Mt in 2022, giving it a capacity utilisation rate of 82%. However, domestic consumption accounts for around 60 –65Mt/yr, with exports accounting for the remainder. Information from the General Statistics Office reveal that local cement production fell by just under 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.

Thai Duy Sam, vice president and general secretary of VABM, told Vietnam Investment Review “In recent years, the cost of input materials, particularly coal, has increased multiple times. It has an effect on both production and output.” He added, “Currently, several significant corporations continue to ensure production. However, small enterprises with production lines that can produce 1 - 2t/day face both manufacturing and consumption challenges.” He continued by saying that the production lines of older plants have high depreciation costs and greater heat and electricity consumption than modern units. In addition, these smaller and older plants often lack a trademark, which can make the sales process harder. Commenting on the real estate market, Sam noted complicated payment processes can cause problems with both construction companies and building material suppliers. He cited examples of how the payment for the building materials used to build the Dong Tru and Vinh Tuy bridges had still not been settled 10 years after completion.

Vietnam: The General Statistics Office recorded domestic cement production volumes of 27.4Mt throughout the first quarter of 2023. The figure corresponds to a drop of 9.9% year-on-year from first-quarter 2022 levels. Việt Nam News has reported that the country produced 116Mt of cement in 2022, up by 5.8% year-on-year.