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Under the current circumstances it’s not surprising to see how much Indian cement production fell in April 2020. Like many other countries, its lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus outbreak suppressed industrial output. Yet seeing an 86% year-on-year fall in the world’s second largest producer is shocking. Cement production declined to 4.1Mt from 29.2Mt. Further data shows, as part of the Indian government’s eight core industries, that steel and cement production suffered the most. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers and electricity generation all fell by far less.

Graph 1: Change in Indian cement production year-on-year (%). Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

By comparison in China monthly cement output only fell around 30% at the peak of its outbreak. The difference is that China implemented a graduated lockdown nationally, with the toughest measures applied in Wuhan, the place the outbreak was first identified. As we reported in April 2020 demand for cement in Wuhan had fallen by around 80% at the time its lockdown ended. Production and demand are different, but India’s experience feels similar except that it’s on a national scale. The last time the country had a dip in cement production recently was in late 2016 when the government introduced its demonetisation measures and dented cement production growth rate (and national productivity) in the process.

UltraTech Cement, Orient Cement, Ambuja Cement, India Cement, Dalmia Bharat, JK Lakshmi Cement, Shree Cement and others all suspended operations to varying degrees in the first phase of the lockdown in late March 2020. Operations of industrial plants in rural areas was then cleared to restart in mid-April 2020, although subject to local permissions and social distancing rules, as the country’s lockdown zones took shape. All of this started to show in company results towards the end of March 2020 as sales started to be hit. The worst is yet to filter through to balance sheets.

March 2020 was a particularly bad time for the government to shut down cement plants because it is normally the month when annual construction work peaks. Cement production usually hits a high around the same time. The monsoon season then follows, reducing demand, giving producers a poor time to restart business. Credit ratings agency Care Ratings has forecast that capacity utilisation will drop to 45% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year. This follows a rate of 65 – 70% over the last six years with the exception of 2019- 2020, which was dragged down to 61% due to lockdown effects. On top of this labour issues are also expected to be a major issue to the sector returning to normality. The mass movement of workers back to their homes made world-wide news as India started its lockdown. Now they have to move back and Care Ratings thinks this is unlikely to complete until after the monsoon season, by September 2020. Hence, it doesn’t expect a partial recovery until the autumn, nor a full recovery until January 2021 at the earliest.

Not everybody is quite as gloomy though. HM Bangur, the managing director at Shree Cement recently told the Business Standard newspaper that he was expecting a rebound following the resumption of production in May 2020. He also reported a capacity utilisation rate of 60% at his company, higher than Care Rating’s prediction above, and he noted a difference between demand in rural areas and smaller cities (higher) compared to bigger cities (lower).

India is now pushing forward with plans to further unlock its containment measures to focus on the economy. However, daily reported news cases of coronavirus surpassed 8000 for the first time on Sunday 31 May 2020. How well its more relaxed lockdown rules will work won’t be seen for a few weeks. While this plays out we’ll end with quote from HM Bangur that will resonate with cement producers everywhere: “sales are imperative.”

Azerbaijan: Cement producers produced 0.91Mt of cement in the first quarter of 2020, down by 8.7% year-on-year from 1Mt in the first quarter of 2019. Ready-mix concrete production rose by 9.9% to 0.46Mt from 0.51Mt, while the total value of construction materials produced fell by 4.5% year-on-year to US$120m from US$126m. The decline was attributed to a decrease in demand due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Dominican Republic: Cement companies produced 5.6Mt of cement in 2019, up by 4% year-on-year from 5.4Mt in 2018. This corresponds to 82% utilisation of the Dominican domestic capacity of 6.9Mt/yr. The Dominican Association of Portland Cement Producers (ADOCEM) said that domestic cement consumption rose by 7.2% to 4.7Mt from 4.3Mt.

US: The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has reported that total US cement shipments in the first three months of 2020 were 20.9Mt, up by 7.9% year-on-year from 19.4Mt. Imported cement accounted for 2.98Mt (14%) of shipments over the period, up by 22% from 24.4Mt.

The USGS said, “Measures instituted to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic may cause disruptions in the cement industry across the United States and around the world. However, no US cement plant closures or idlings were reported in March 2020.”

Vietnam: Producers sold 29.2Mt of cement between 1 January and 30 April 2020, down by 7% year-on-year from 27.3Mt over the corresponding period of 2019. The Vietnam National Cement Corporation (VICEM) has reported that domestic sales fell by 4% to 19.3Mt (66% of total sales) and exports fell by 11% to 9.90Mt (34%), according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. April 2020 cement sales were just 8.08Mt, including 2.42Mt of exports, due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on cement demand from construction.

Puerto Rico: Puerto Rico’s two cement plants produced 37,100t of cement in March and April 2020, down by 55% year-on-year from 83,300t in March and April 2019. Domestic consumption over the period was 41,700t, down by 58% year-on-year from 98,800t. Esmerk Latin American News has reported that the decreases were caused by the suspension of construction work due to the government’s coronavirus lockdown.

Argentina: The Portland Cement Manufacturers Association (AFCP) has reported that cement dispatches in the period between 1 January 2020 and 30 April 2020 were 2.3Mt, down by 36% year-on-year from 3.6Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. Between March and April dispatches fell by 20% to 408,000t, down by 55% year-on-year from 907,000t in April 2019. The El Economista newspaper has reported that the decline ‘reflects the worsening of the fall in the private and public demand for housing, road, public works and infrastructure in all the districts of the country.’

Gabon: Data from the Directorate General of Economy and Tax Policy shows that national cement production rise by 10.6% year-on-year to 0.54Mt in 2019. The improving trend has been attributed to better use of existing manufacturing equipment and the resumption of activity at the CimGabon plant in Ntoum, according to the L’Union newspaper. Clinker imports also grew, by 14.6% to 0.44Mt. Overall cement sales increased by 8.5% to 0.53Mt.

Vietnam: Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. The value of these exports declined by 17.4% to US$301m, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Exports to China dropped by 5.4% to 2.73Mt, exports to the Philippines dropped by 27.5% to 1.47Mt, exports to Bangladesh dropped by 5.5% to 1.34Mt and exports to Taiwan dropped by 7% to 0.46Mt.

Data is starting to emerge about how the Chinese cement industry has coped with the economic effects of government action regarding the coronavirus. National cement industry output fell by 29% year-on-year to 150Mt in the combined months of January and February 2020. Output then picked up to 149Mt in March 2020, a drop of 17% compared to March 2019. These are massive figures, larger than the annual output of most countries, but they give some idea of what shutting down economies does to demand for cement and concrete.

Graph 1: Year-on-year change in cement output in China, April 2018 - March 2020. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Note that accumulated data is issued for January and February each year so these months show a mean figure.

Graph 1 above gives the general picture of changes in cement output in China over the last couple of years. Growth fell in early 2018 as the government implemented its supply-side reforms, including measures such as industry consolidation and peak shifting. This improved in the second half of the year and throughout 2019. January and February output has been steady for the last few years, possibly due to peak shifting, but this year the trend was massively more pronounced. In March 2020, meanwhile, output fell by 17% compared to a rise of 17% in 2019. On the demand side, reporting from the Chinese Cement Association reveals that national infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 19.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. National real estate development investment fell by 7.7% to US$310bn.

The figures above are for the whole of China whilst the outbreak was centered in Wuhan in Hubei province. The government implemented its toughest public health measures in this city and the surrounding Hubei province, with other regions using social distancing and tracking methods to various degrees. The Chinese Cement Association explains that, once other cities in Hubei province were released from lockdown, construction projects were allowed to resume but that progress was limited due to a lack of workers. Three weeks after measures were relaxed, the average shipping rate for cement producers was only 60% in these outer regions. In Wuhan the situation was more stark with demand for cement at only 20% of expected levels at the time the lockdown ended on 8 April 2020. Data from the Hubei Cement Association reports that on 30 March 2020 only half of Hubei province’s 57 clinker production lines were producing cement. The rest were suspended. To compound the problems here once logistics networks started to reopen imports of cement from other provinces flooded in taking advantage of price differences.

Few if any of the larger domestic producers have released their first quarter financial results for the first quarter of 2020. Huaxin Cement has said that its sales fell by 36% and that this is expected to cause a profit drop of 46% year-on-year to US$100m. Shanshui Cement has said likewise, although it has not released any forecasts. In its annual report for 2019 released in early April 2020, Anhui Conch said that the coronavirus had exerted a ‘short-term negative impact’ on the group’s business due to the slowdown in supply and demand in the construction materials industry. CNBM also acknowledged the situation in its 2019 report saying that it would, ‘impact on economic activity.’ CNBM’s subsidiary BNBM, a gypsum wallboard manufacturer, has released a forecast for the first quarter predicting a 90% drop in net profit due to poor sale volumes.

How this can inform the cement industries of other countries around the world that have enacted restrictions on their populations is unclear. China, as ever, is an exceptional outlier both economically and as a cement producer. Plus, the severity of how a country enacts a lockdown is crucial here. If the early reports above are indicative then half of Hubei’s clinker lines were forced to suspend production, demand for cement fell by 80% at the time the lockdown ended and imports headed in once transport networks were reopened. Issues were also noticed with labour shortages. Forewarned is forearmed as they say. The next point of focus will be how fast the Hubei and Chinese cement industry recovers from this shock. More on this as we have it.