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As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

Vietnam: Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that clinker exports fell by nearly 40% year-on-year to 7.5Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Clinker export values dropped by 19% to US$360m in the same period, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Previously, the Ministry of Construction forecast that cement demand would increase by up to 5% to 103Mt in 2020 due to a recovery in the real estate market. Around a third of this was expected to be exported. Local consumption of cement and clinker grew by 2% year-on-year to 98Mt in 2019.

Pakistan: Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows that local cement sales fell by 17% year-on-year to 3.2Mt in March 2020 from 3.9Mt in the same period of 2019 due to a contraction in construction activity, according to the News International newspaper. Exports rose by 5% to 0.51Mt but this is expected to fall as markets decline around the world due to the coronavirus outbreak. Both local sales and exports grew in the first two months of 2020.

The government has introduced an incentive package for the construction industry which is expected to help increase local cement consumption. The cement industry is also anticipating a reduction in federal excise duty, which it described as ‘very high’ regionally.

Uzbekistan: The total volume of cement produced in January and February 2020 in Uzbekistan was 1.02Mt, down by 20% year-on-year from 1.22Mt in the first two months of 2019. February 2020 production rose by 16% month-on-month and fell by 13% year-on-year, to 551,000t from 474,000t in January 2020 and 659,000t in February 2019.

Uzbekistan Newsline has reported that the level of utilisation of Uzbekistan’s 11.1Mt/yr cement production capacity in January and February 2020 was 55%.

Spain: Andalusian cement demand typified the slight slow down of the Spanish construction sector in the first two months of 2020, with a fall of 4.6% year-on-year to 435,000t from 441,000t in 2019.

Work continues as normal however Arquitectura y Sostenibilidad Online newspaper has reported that Andalusian Cement Manufacturers Association (AFCA) president Isidoro Miranda forecasts a sharp drop in consumption in March 2020. He said, "We support the communiqué of the Spanish Confederation of Associations of Manufacturers of Construction Products (CEPCO), regarding not stopping the works.” He called construction a ‘pillar of the Spanish economy,’ adding, “It is of utmost importance that all current works, including infrastructure works, maintain their activity.”

Germany: Currax and Siemens have announced their collaboration on a mill operations digitisation pilot project involving the Simotics Connect 400 motor data collector and transmitter. They hope that analysis of data processed via the Simotics 400 will better enable the remote operating of mills ‘to increase efficiency and component life’ and speeding the shift towards automation and production that is resilient to crises such as the coronavirus outbreak.

Spain: Oficemen, the Spanish cement industry association, has joined other voices in the construction sector to advocate for the continuation of construction works, including infrastructure projects, during the coronavirus outbreak. According to the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, "The closure of the works is not obligatory, as this activity has not been expressly suspended." However, increasing numbers of local authorities are stopping them, including those in Barcelona, which has ordered the closure of all building work in the city, both public and private.

Oficemen's president, Víctor García Brossa, argued, "Once the service sector is paralysed, construction becomes one of the main pillars of the Spanish economy" asserting that its work is "of the utmost importance… to prepare our country for the way out of this crisis." Regardless of whether works can officially continue or not, García Brossa has confirmed that the current situation predicts a ‘sharp short-term drop’ in cement consumption.

In February 2020, cement consumption in Spain fell by 0.5% year-on-year to 1.17Mt, about 5500t less than in February 2019, according to Oficemen’s latest data. This represented the fourth consecutive month of falls, although in year-on-year terms (from March 2019 to February 2020) consumption increased by 3.9%.

Exports continued their dire performance, falling for the 33rd consecutive month. A decrease of 31.4% month-on-month was seen in February 2020, which was down by 24.2% year-on-year compared to February 2019.

India: Production capacity utilisation in the cement industry is expected to remain below 70% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year due to new plant projects in the next two years. Credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil all forecast relatively low demand for cement compared to a decade-high of 13% in the 2019 – 2020 period, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production rose by 0.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019 – 2020 period. However, production growth has hastened since then. The ratings agencies offer different outlooks on anticipated profits look forward.

Saudi Arabia: Producers in Saudi Arabia sold 4.7Mt of cement in December 2019, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%. The figure exceeded November’s sales volumes of 4.3Mt by 9.3%.

Last month Soyuzcement, the Union of Russian Cement Producers, reported that cement production was on course to grow by 8% year-on-year to 58Mt in 2019. This estimate was based on growth from January to October 2019 followed by a modest rise in November.

Graph 1: Cement production in Russia, 2010 – 2019. Source: CM Pro, Ernst & Young.

The pickup is significant because it’s the country’s first annual resumption of growth since 2014. At that time low commodity prices, a worsening economy and international sanctions broke a fairly steady growth cycle that had started in 2000. The only blip in that run was the global economic downturn around 2008. In the medium to long term Soyuzcement’s review pinpointed growth drivers as being government-backed residential housing schemes, integrated land development projects and an increase in the construction of concrete roads. This increase has been driven by consumption growth in most regions, led by a 12% rise in the Central Federal District although the Volga Federal District started to slow in the second half of 2019.

Figure 1: Russian Federal Districts by cement production in 2016. Source: Soyuzcement.ru.

Anecdotally, this change in the fortunes of the Russian cement industry can be seen in the volume of news coverage on the Global Cement website over the last few years. The mean number of news stories on the country in 2016 and 2017, increased by half in 2018 and then again in 2019. Partly this is down to our attempts to increase our coverage of the region but it also shows a general trend. In the news specifically there haven’t been many new plant projects domestically but there has been a steady stream of upgrades and maintenance related stories. For example, Eurocement subsidiary Kavkazcement reported in recent weeks that it had installed a replacement dry kiln. This has been part of a group of upgrades that Eurocement has started in 2019. On the supplier side both Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer and Italy’s Bedeschi opened subsidiaries in Russia in 2019.

One thing that didn’t seem to slow down the growth were mounting tariffs on Russian exports into Ukraine. Russia’s neighbour first blocked imports of cement from Russia in May 2019 due to, what it said was a Russian ban on imports. It then followed this with an antidumping rate of 115% for imported clinker and Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from Russia. It also penalised imports from Belarus and Moldova, although at lower rates. Russia’s cement export rates seemed untroubled by this, rising by 13.5% year-on-year to 0.8Mt in the first 10 months of 2019. Exports hit of high of just below 2Mt/yr in 2014 but have since stabilised at around 1Mt/yr. Imports reached around 5Mt/yr in the early 2010s and have been slowly declining since then, reaching 1.5Mt in 2018.

The lowered production rate that the Russian cement industry has faced over the last five years has been noteworthy given the apparent low capacity utilisation rate. The Global Cement Directory 2019 records the country as having a production capacity of 111Mt/yr. This gives Russia a capacity utilisation rate of 48% in 2018! Unlike, say, the countries in southern Europe that have had to rationalise their cement industries following the post-2008 decline, Russia may have structural aspects to the industry that have helped protect it from lower utilisation rates. These include relatively low export-import rates and the large size of the country with limited sea access to many regions. Most of its production capacity is located in the west but a sizable minority of plants are based further east across the Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern regions. Even under subdued economic conditions, plants in these places are likely to be less susceptible to foreign imports, for example.

Looking ahead, the question is whether the current growth that the cement industry is enjoying is viable once government spending slows down. Alongside this the industry could also focus on sustainability. As the government announced in early January 2020, the country expects to face both negative and positive effects from climate change. The cement industry could be at the front of this trend if it decides to clean up production and/or move into new markets as the Arctic region opens up.