Displaying items by tag: India

India: The Tamil Nadu Federation of Panchayat Presidents, an overarching organisation for local government leaders, has begun a protest against unlawful cement plant practices in the state. The New Indian Express newspaper has reported that the federation’s president Sellam Kadamban said that limestone mines and trucks are operating illegally, creating pollution and traffic collisions.

India: Shree Digvijay Cement plans to more than double the capacity of its Digvijaygram cement plant in Gujarat’s Jamnagar District to 3Mt/yr from 1.2Mt/yr. Projects Today News has reported that the project will begin by mid-2023, and will also include the establishment of a waste heat recovery (WHR) plant.

India: UltraTech Cement has entered into a collaboration with Finland-based Coolbrook to implement the latter’s roto dynamic heater (RDH) electric kiln technology in Indian cement plants. RDH technology uses renewable power to heat kilns to up to 1700°C.

UltraTech Cement managing director Kailash Jhanwar said “UltraTech is a forerunner in utilising renewable energy in its manufacturing operations. We are constantly looking at opportunities to improve process efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from our operations.” Jhanwar concluded “We believe that our collaboration with Coolbrook will help to further accelerate the decarbonisation of our operations.”

Coolbrook executive chair Ilpo Kuokkanen said “India is one of the most important potential markets for Coolbrook, as we want to make a global impact on CO₂ emission reductions. Cooperation with India’s largest cement producer UltraTech is a significant step in our strategy to decarbonise heavy industry processes globally. UltraTech is also an excellent addition to our comprehensive and responsive partnership ecosystem spanning across leading industrial actors, academic institutions, and the public sector.”

India: Ramco Cements plans to make capital expenditure (CAPEX) investments of US$154 – 167m in the 2023 and 2024 financial years. At the beginning of the 2023 financial year on 1 April 2022, Ramco Cements’ net debt was US$489m. It plans to pay back US$64.3m during the current financial year, with the ultimate aim of becoming net debt-free before the 2026 financial year.

We return to India to discuss a potential fight that may be brewing in the cement sector. Competition between UltraTech Cement and Adani Group started when the latter won the race to buy Holcim’s cement assets in the country in May 2022. However, the rivalry stepped up a notch this week when UltraTech Cement responded by approving a US$1.7bn investment for expansion.

The leading Indian producer announced that it was committing the funds towards increasing its cement production capacity by 22.6Mt/yr. This will include a mixture of expansions to existing sites and building new plants such as new integrated units, new grinding units and new terminals. UltraTech Cement currently has a previous round of expansion that is set to be completed by the end of the 2023 financial year. Commercial production at the newly announced projects is forecast to start by the end of the 2025 financial year. The company finished off by saying that the upgrade projects would maintain its position as the third largest cement producer outside of China, with its total production capacity rising to 159Mt/yr.

Unusually for these kinds of press releases though, UltraTech Cement made of point of doing the calculation for any readers who might want to know how much this new capacity might cost. It is US$76/t. Adani Group didn’t do this when it said it had agreed to buy Ambuja Cements and ACC from Holcim but, unsurprisingly, it cost more, at least US$94/t based on the cash figure Holcim released for the deal. Note that Adani Group has valued the acquisition at US$10.5bn, which would put the capacity cost up to US$150/t. Other zingers in the press release included Kumar Mangalam Birla’s quote that his company held, “... a deep and nuanced understanding of the market dynamics of the cement industry.” Both of these additions to the statement suggest that UltraTech Cement is making a point about its new competitor.

Bloomberg has framed the actions of UltraTech Cement and Adani Group in the cement sector as a brewing corporate battle between old and new money. Both Kumar Mangalam Birla, chair of Aditya Birla Group - the owner of UltraTech Cement, and Gautam Adani were in the top 10 of the Forbes list of the richest people in India in 2021. Birla comes from inherited wealth, although he has undeniably expanded UltraTech Cement greatly during his tenure as chair. Adani is self-made. Cement is just part of the empires of both men but one risk to UltraTech Cement is just how fast an expansion-driven competitor with concerns in power generation and logistics might decide to try to shake up the cement sector.

It is interesting at this early stage to glimpse part of the potential strategies both cement companies may be employing. Adani Group is in the process of buying its way into the cement sector at a relatively high price for capacity. UltraTech Cement is responding by building new capacity at a lower price. Research by Kotak Institutional Equities cited in the Bloomberg article suggests that Adani Group could increase its 70Mt/yr capacity up to 100Mt/yr at US$80 – 90/t. This would cost up to around US$2.5bn but it’s not impossible. Kotak also reckons UltraTech Cement can eke out around US$3 – 4/t more in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) compared to the existing Ambuja Cements and ACC assets. Adani Group might be able to cut this gap down through creating synergies by further merging the two companies.

This adds to the feeling that UltraTech Cement is in a stronger position as the incumbent market leader. Yet risks abound in the current inflationary conditions and even less is certain if Adani Group is prepared to invest heavily enough. After all, UltraTech Cement had a production capacity of only 23Mt/yr in 2010. Less than a decade later it became India’s largest cement producer. It is now Adani Group’s next move in the battle of the cement billionaires.

India: UltraTech Cement plans to invest US$1.67bn to expand its cement production capacity to 160Mt/yr. This corresponds to a capacity cost of US$76m/Mt/yr. The Business Standard newspaper has reported that the investment is part of parent company Aditya Birla’s planned US$9.91bn spending package to expand existing capacities and enter new sectors, including paints, via its subsidiary Grasim Industries. The investments will affect both its Indian operations and those overseas.

India: Star Cement plans to invest US$129m to establish a new 3Mt/yr clinker line. BusinessLine Online News has reported that producer currently operates 2.8Mt/yr-worth of clinker capacity across two units in Meghalaya. Star Cement says that it plans to increase its presence in the Northeast India, Bihar and West Bengal markets. It will additionally invest US$90 – 103m to establish two new grinding units with a combined capacity of 4Mt/yr at Guwahati and Silchar in Assam.

Star Cement said that projected infrastructure investment growth in Northeast India inspired its investment decision, while it opted for a 3Mt/yr kiln over a 2Mt/yr alternative due to the improved efficiencies it offers.

India: State-owned coal supplier Coal India has recorded a 17% year-on-year decline in deliveries of coal to cement plants in May 2022. Its coal supply to captive power plants also dropped in the month, by 40% year-on-year.

Coal India is the leading coal mining company globally. Its main customers are energy, cement and steel companies.

One big story in India in recent weeks has been the start of action by the central government to tackle rising cement prices. First it reduced tax duties on petrol and diesel in late May 2022. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman also said that they were looking at ways of improving the availability of cement in the country, including better logistics, to help lower its cost. A delay to a change in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate structure is also being considered to slow inflation generally. Local press then reported a few days later that the government had set up a panel to explore ways of reducing the price of cement by distributing supplies better around the country. Specifically, it was talking to the South India Cement Manufacturers’ Association to work out ways for their members to meet the rising demand in other parts of the country. Reported options included looking at better use of rail and sea connections.

Chart 1: Map of Indian regions showing integrated/clinker production capacity per capita. Note: the chart does not include standalone grinding plant capacity. Source: Global Cement Directory, Indian census data. Map image adapted from Filpro CC BY-SA 4.0.

The map above (Chart 1) summarises the general problem the country faces from a clinker production point of view. More clinker can be produced in the south of the country than elsewhere. This map is partly a reflection where the limestone reserves are. However, it does not show that the East region of India has a higher concentration of cement grinding plants than elsewhere. Additionally, a number of new integrated/clinker plants have been built in the East and more have been proposed. The data in Chart 1 suggests that India has an integrated production capacity of 312kg/capita nationally. This compares to a cement consumption of 200 – 250kg/capita as reported by the ratings agency Crisil.

Data from Crisil indicates that cement prices grew by 9% from the start of 2021 to March 2022. A similar rise of 8.1% month-on-month was reported in April 2022. It is not a direct comparison but retail inflation in India was reported as being 7.8% in April 2022. The cause of this has been blamed on a general tightening in energy supplies in the autumn of 2021 followed by the effects of the war in Ukraine that started in early 2022. Rising international coal and petcoke prices have made manufacturing cement more expensive. Growing petrol and diesel prices have made moving it around costlier still. Looking at the cement market generally, Crisil noted that demand for cement grew sharply in the first half of the 2022 financial year but then slowed in the second half due to poor weather, issues with sand supply and a labour shortage. The ratings agency has forecast stable growth in the 2023 financial year but with the caveat that the mounting costs of construction, including building materials, could dent this.

The fundamentals for the world’s second largest cement market look good as Adani Group’s recent deal to buy Holcim’s Indian assets for US$6.34bn attests. This won’t be much comfort for end-users though who are watching the price of cement rocket upwards. Yet how far the central government will be able to help the southern cement producers move their wares around more easily remain to be seen. If it succeeds, it may slow the rise in prices but it seems unlikely to halt it. The reaction of the more northerly producers is also key, since one option they have is to slacken their own price increases by just enough to fight off the new competition. Already they are facing the dilemma of raising their prices to cover input costs versus the effect this may have on overall demand. All of this looks set to put pressure on the producers’ margins. Indian cement prices look set to go up whatever happens next, making everyone unhappy. Some may be more unhappy than others.

India: Jindal Group has signed a memorandum of understanding with the state government of Chhattisgarh for the establishment of its planned Raigarh cement plant. The Times of India newspaper has reported that the plant will have an integrated capacity of 2.5Mt/yr, in addition to a further 2.5Mt/yr in clinker capacity. It will also operate a 12MW waste heat recovery (WHR) plant.