Displaying items by tag: peak shifting

In case you’ve missed it there’s been a boom in cement demand in China during the current quarter. Henan province saw a run on cement prices in November 2019 that the local press described as ‘crazy.’ Some companies were issuing price adjustments twice a day, according to the China Cement Association. The article on the CCA’s website also includes a video showing dozens of cement trucks queuing at a mill with the caption ‘all the plants are like this, don’t ask the price any more.’

The CCA’s blamed the situation in Henan on pollution controls on production and a rebound in cement demand. Weather-based pollution controls enacted in late October 2019 shut-down or limited production at 66 of the province’s 72 clinker production lines. Builders were then forced to source cement from neighbouring Shanxi, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces. At the same time demand for cement from real estate and infrastructure sectors picked up in the fourth quarter of 2019. Following advice from the local cement manufacturers’ association, the provincial government relaxed the rules on peak shifting that normally run from November to February in a bid to control the situation. Cement prices in Henan hit a high in mid-to-late November 2019 and have since subsided somewhat.

Nationally, Chinese cement prices hit a high in late November 2019 beating the highest level in 2018 and also setting the highest price since 2011. The key regions driving the increase have been in central and south China, including Guangxi, Guangdong and Henan. One more thing to note here is that peak shifting or seasonal shutdown of production capacity has different dates in different provinces. So, potentially, the situation could repeat itself if unexpected demand continues and provincial governments fail to monitor the situation.

Recently a couple of economic indicators in China have suggested a recovery in infrastructure spending in recent months, supporting increased cement demand. Data from Wind quoted by the Financial Times newspaper suggests that the cement price rose by 15% since September 2019 in large cities. Reinforced steel (rebar) and aggregates prices have increased similarly. At the same time the South China Post newspaper has reported a growth in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing activity that could also point to renewed infrastructure spending. Central government is also reported to be taking measures to support provincial infrastructure development.

If true then this may be creating some pretty direct lessons in economic interventionism. The Chinese government appears to be stimulating demand for cement via infrastructure growth while restricting production at the same time. Cement prices have reacted in a ‘crazy’ fashion. The real tension here is between two conflicting desires: protecting the economy and protecting the environment. The state planners may be grappling with this one for a while.

The publication of CNBM’s financial results presents a good opportunity to take stock of the Chinese cement industry in the first half of 2019. Looking at the big picture first, cement sales rose by 5% year-on-year to 1.03Bnt in the first half of 2019 from 0.98Bnt in the same period in 2018. Graph 1 below shows the sales over the last five years since 2014. Generally, sales are decreasing each year but there has been some variation in the half-year periods.

Graph 1: Cement sales in China, 2014 – 2019. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

As the China Cement Association (CCA) pointed out in its summary for the first half of 2019, the cement industry ‘swelled in volume and price’ as industry efficiency grew but that the growth rate dropped ‘significantly’ compared in 2018. By region, as Graph 2 shows, variation can be seen between the south-east of the country where growth was slow or even fell compared to stronger performance elsewhere. Cement production increased by above 20% in Jilin, Shanxi, Shandong, Tibet and Heilongjiang and by over 10% in Hebei, Gansu, Tianjin, and Liaoning. However, it fell in Hainan, Beijing, Qinghai, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Ningxia. Most of these changes were attributed to either rising or falling demand for cement, except for Jilin where reduced imports from neighbouring provinces pushed up its demand. In most of these latter regions it attribute the decline to falling demand for cement.

Graph 2: Cement production growth by province in first half of 2019. Source: China Cement Association.

Other points of note from the CCA include the surge in imports to China. Imports of cement and clinker rose by 149% year-on-year to 8.97Mt in the five months from January to May 2019. Vietnam supplied 68% of this followed by 11% from Thailand. On the production side, 10 new production lines with a total capacity of 15.5Mt/yr were commissioned in the period. These were fairly scattered across nine provinces, in Shanxi, Anhui, Hubei, Fujian, Guangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Gansu and Yunnan respectively.

Sales and profits were supported by growing demand and prices on the corporate side. CNBM’s operating income for its cement businesses grew by 16% to US$8.14bn from US$7.04bn. Its adjusted profit increased by 40% to US$2.76bn from US$1.98bn. Anhui Conch’s sales rose by 17.9% to US$2.15bn from US$2.11bn. It blamed poorer profits in the south of the country on adverse weather leading to weakened demand.

The weaker sales in the south could be seen in China Resources Cement’s (CRC) results with its turnover down by 6% to US$2.22bn from US$2.36bn. Likewise, its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 8.5% to US$820m from US$896m. The majority of its cement plants are based in Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. Jidong Cement was also reported as having received US$30m in subsidies from the government during the first half of 2019 in relation to its ‘daily activities.’

As is usual for these kinds of roundups the dynamic in China is between government industrial policies, like peak shifting and pollution mitigation, and local demand and price trends. One of the latest spins on peak shifting, for example, is a rating system that is being considered to decide which companies should be subject to production limits and for how long. General cement sales are slowly falling each year but the rise of imports into the word’s biggest cement producing nation (!) mark an interesting trend. Also, it may not be connected, but lots of those provinces with falling demand so far in 2019 are those on the south coast facing the heavy clinker exporting nations of South-East Asia. Given the decisiveness with which the Chinese government dispensed with imports of waste materials under its National Sword initiative since 2017, those countries importing cement to China should beware. It could change very quickly. The Chinese cement market is never dull.

China: The government is considering introducing a rating scheme for companies in 15 key industries, including steel, coal and cement. Those with the highest emissions will be subject to the strictest production limits, according to the Economic Information Daily newspaper. Those with an A-rating, the highest, will be required to suspend production only in extreme weather, while the C-rated companies will be subject to additional bans during the winter heating season, when pollution is the most severe. The scheme is intended to incentivise companies to upgrade their equipment.