Displaying items by tag: Coal

Jamaica: Caribbean Cement plans to launch an upgrade to expand its Rockfort cement plant’s capacity by 30% to 1.3Mt/yr in October 2023. The producer says that the expansion will cost US$40m and that the new capacity will come online in early 2025. The work will include enlargements of multiple kiln sections and the installation of a new coal dosing system, clinker cooler and clinker transport system.

Japan: Cement plants consumed 70Mt-worth (50%) of total limestone shipments in Japan during the 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023. Nikkei Industry Summary News has reported that limestone is the only mineral resource for which Japan is self-sufficient. However, it reported that the country’s cement sector is exposed to effects from the global coal market. Producers expect that the rising price of coal from China may diminish their earnings due to increased costs.

Pakistan: The Central Development Working Party (CDWP) has cleared four development projects worth US$528m that are likely to lead to increased cement demand. This includes the Coal Rail Connectivity Project to connect significant coal reserves in the Thar Coal Mines with the existing rail network, including last mile connectivity to the Port of Qasim, according to the Nation newspaper. The project, part of the government’s Pakistan Vision 2025 policy, has been designed to provide reliable and efficient railway infrastructure to ‘break the geographical barriers’ of accessing domestic coal for industrial use, including cement production, which is currently reliant on more expensive imported fuels.

Separately, funding has been approved for a road project to connect the N50 and N70 national highways, to serve as the main route to connect the Central Cities of Northern Balochistan to Southern Punjab. This is expected to raise cement demand in these areas.

Pakistan: Cement producers in Northern Pakistan have reported a 13% drop in the price of coal to US$126/t. The Pakistan Today newspaper has reported that this is due to the Afghan government lowering taxes on exports of coal from Afghanistan. The Taliban reduced its royalties on coal exports by 12% to US$30/t. Meanwhile, it reduced customs duties on coal exports by 33%, also to US$30/t.

Northern Pakistan is comprised of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. In 2022, regional cement plants were over 70% reliant on Afghan coal. That year, they paid coal prices of US$170 – 200/t.

China: Anhui Conch Cement is seeking coal suppliers for two of its subsidiaries. The producer has tendered for bids for contracts to supply 410,000t of bituminous coal, high-sulphur coal and lignite to Naiman Banner Hongji Cement and 10,000t of lignite to Chifeng Conch. Online bidding will open on 25 August 2023 and close on 27 August 2023.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement says that it expects sales to rise by 14% year-on-year to US$761m during the first half of the 2024 financial year. Nikkei Financial Summary News has reported that the producer expects a drop in its cement volumes, offset by price hikes. Currency effects will also impact its result. Meanwhile, coal prices remained lower than expected. The company expects to record a net profit of US$26.6m, compared to a loss of US$20.4m in the first half of the 2023 financial year. It previously forecast a US$13.3m loss.

Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded US$52.8m in sales in the first quarter of the 2024 financial year (1 April - 30 June 2023). This corresponds to year-on-year growth of 16%. Nonetheless, it made a net loss of US$7.6m.

Throughout the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, Japanese cement despatches fell by 15% to 10.1Mt. Exports declined most sharply, by 43%, to 1.51Mt.

India: Prism Johnson has ordered US$2.42m-worth of coal for use as cement fuel from Vikas Ecotech. Press Trust of India News has reported that the supplier will complete the order by 31 October 2023.

India: Dalmia Bharat sold 7Mt of cement during the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, up by 12% year-on-year from 6.2Mt in the first quarter of the 2023 financial year. The company's income also rose, by 10% to US$442m, while its net profit dropped by 30% to US$17.6m. Hindu BusinessLine News has reported that the producer noted a continued downward trajectory to its fuel costs. During the quarter, Dalmia Bharat commissioned its new 2.5Mt/yr Bokaro cement plant in Jharkhand, and completed de-bottlenecking work at its 0.6Mt/yr Midnapore plant in West Bengal.

Managing Director and CEO Puneet Dalmia said "This quarter has been a disappointment as against our expectations. Having said so, we remain focused on seizing the emerging demand opportunities.”

Cement Managing Director and CEO Mahendra Singhi added “Given the promising outlook for cement demand, the expectation of stable cement prices during the rest of the year, and the softening in commodity costs, we anticipate a gradual improvement in profitability."

India: Aditya Birla subsidiary UltraTech Cement recorded cement sales volumes of 30Mt during the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, which began on 1 April 2023. This corresponds to growth of 20% year-on-year from first-quarter levels in the previous financial year. The Economic Times newspaper has reported that ICICI Securities expects UltraTech Cement's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to fall by 3% year-on-year. Declining fuel prices are expected to have contributed to a drop in the producer's costs. Throughout the quarter, its capacity utilisation rate was 90%.

The government in Indonesia made building new cement capacity harder this week. The new rules are intended to strengthen the local sector in the face of a utilisation rate of only 53%. A moratorium policy and/or new investment arrangements have been placed on new cement plant projects. Instead, companies have been asked to focus on the regions of Papua, West Papua, Maluku and North Maluku instead, where demand for cement is higher than what the local production base can produce. Ignatius Warsito, the Director General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industry at the Ministry of Industry, said that the new rules would be reconsidered once the capacity utilisation rate reaches 85%.

Other measures the government is also looking at include increasing exports of cement, changing regulations related to the coal Public Service Agency (BLU) and improving overland transport. On that last point the authorities and the cement producers are looking at how logistics costs can avoid rising in the face of the impending Zero Over Dimension Over Load (ODOL) policy. Proposals the sector has submitted include implementing a multi-axle policy for trucks and improving the quality of certain roads to allow for higher capacity vehicles.

As one of the government’s focus areas - coal - suggests, fuel prices have been a headache for the cement sector in recent years. Warsito noted that international coal prices started to rise in late 2020. This was likely due to the logistical mess that the coronavirus pandemic caused to the global economy. Higher coal prices caused a “significant” effect on the cement industry through both higher production costs and restrictions on supplies. One irony to note here is that Indonesia is one of the world’s leading coal producers. Donny Arsal, the head of Semen Indonesia, told the government in 2022 that the war in Ukraine had enticed local coal companies to export more coal due to the rising international price. At this time he lobbied the administration to use its local domestic market obligation (DMO) subsidy to better serve the cement sector by giving it more coal at a fixed price.

Graph 1: Cement demand and capacity in Indonesia. Source: Semen Indonesia and Indonesia Cement Association.

Overcapacity has been a recurring feature of the Indonesian cement market since at least the 1990s as the demand and capacity have grown sometimes out of step. The capacity utilisation rate reached 90% in the early 1990s only to fall to 50% by the end of that decade due to the Asian financial crisis. More recently Holcim left the market in 2019 when it sold its business to the Semen Indonesia. The state-owned company consolidated more than half of the country’s cement production capacity at the time. According to its data for the first quarter of 2023 it has a 51% market share and a 46% production capacity share. It also said that 92% of local demand was catered for from four of the country’s 14 producers, namely: Semen Indonesia; Indocement; Conch; and Merah Putih.

A recent study by the Jakarta Post newspaper suggested that after a poor first half in 2023, cement demand was expected to rebound and create modest overall annual growth by the end of the year. The key reasons for this outlook are increased government infrastructure spending, ongoing work on the new capital city Nusantara and anticipated price stability. The new city project, for example, is expected to require 1.6Mt of cement in the 2022 - 2024 period. Risk factors, of course, abound such as a global economic slowdown, financial problems at some of the government-owned construction companies like Waskita Karya and new capacity. A new 8Mt/yr (!) plant owned by local company Kobexindo and China-based Honshi Cement, for instance, is scheduled to start operation in the second half of 2023 in East Kalimantan. Even though the government says that the new unit will export 90% of its production, it will place pressure on other existing sites hoping to increase exports.

The country’s largest cement producer being majority owned by the government is a pertinent feature here given that the same government has also effectively banned new capacity. Semen Indonesia’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have fallen each year consecutively since 2020. As mentioned above overcapacity has long been present in the local sector and recent events have made it worse. Yet, the companies that are likely to benefit the most from a block on newer, competitive cement plants are likely to be the established players. That said, though, with the utilisation just above 50% and new projects like the Kobexindo-Honshi plant on the way, the government likely feels it has to take some form of action. Other tools at its disposal include a national carbon exchange set to launch in September 2023. Power companies will participate from the start with cement producers anticipated to follow at a later stage. Despite the uncertain short-to-medium term outlook the cement sector in Indonesia remains one of the largest in the world with plenty of business to be done. Denmark-based FLSmidth was clearly mindful of this when it opened a new office in Jakarta in April 2023.