Displaying items by tag: Demonetisation

It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.

Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.

Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.

Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.

This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.

India: The credit ratings agency ICRA has forecast that cement demand is likely to increase by 5% year-on-year in the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to increases in infrastructure and residential housing. In a report on the Indian cement sector it said that demand for cement fell by 1.2% to 280Mt in the 2016 – 2017 period, according to the Hindu newspaper. It added that the government’s demonetisation policy had decreased sales volumes by 9% between November 2016 and March 2017 as construction activity fell. However, in July 2016 ICRA failed to anticipate the negative effects of demonetisation predicting that cement demand would grow by 6% in the 2016 – 2017. Since then sales picked up by 17% in April 2017 leading to the current optimistic outlook.

India: The India Ratings and Research has blamed demonetisation and elections for a poor fourth quarter for cement producers in the 2017 Indian financial year. Cement production volumes fell by 15.8% year-on-year in February 2017 and by 5% on a month-on-month basis. India Ratings also attributed the decline to a strong equivalent quarter in the 2016 financial year.

It reported that volumes for the major cement producers contracted by 5% year-on-year in the third quarter. On a regional basis it fell by 3% and 6% for producers in central and northern regions. However, volumes rose sharply, by 21%, in the south. Growth in the southern region has been supported by increases in government spending in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

The agency also reported that changes announced by the Ministry of Railways, which requires long-term agreements and contracts for industries like cement, steel and fertilisers, could potentially drive demand for cement. The new policy will provide conditional discounts that could increase the transport of cement through the rail network and cement manufacturers will be able to control freight costs more effectively. However, the availability of wagons during peak periods might also constrain the policy.

India: A report by HDFC Securities suggests that the Indian cement industry will witness its first decline in cement sales volumes since 2001 due to demonetisation. The research by Ankur Kulshrestha and Sarfaraz Singh says that cement volumes fell by 13% year-on-year in January 2017 following a 9% decline in December 2016. They added that cement demand, although weak, is recovering from the shock with the south of the country least effected.

"Our channel checks across the country show cement demand, though still weak, is recovering from the effect of this move. Though states undergoing political processes (Uttar Pradesh and Punjab) are an exception to this recovery as of now, there is a possibility demand may pick up once the government formation is complete," said Kulshrestha and Singh. They added that energy prices contributed much of a surge of cement industry profitability in the last financial year or so.

India: The India Ratings and Research credit agency predicts that the cement industry will grow by 4 – 5% in the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to demand from infrastructure activities and a revival in housing demand in rural areas led by government spending. In a report it has revised downwards its growth estimates for the 2016 – 2017 period to 3 – 3.5% from 4 – 6% due to the negative effects of demonetisation. It added that, although the price of petcoke and coal has almost doubled since September 2016, it expects that stable cement demand will allow producers to pass these costs onto consumers in the 2017 – 2018 period.

Cement producers will add 50Mt/yr additional production capacity in the 2016 – 2018 period with the eastern region leading growth at 17Mt/yr followed by the north at 14Mt/yr. However, it fears that capacity increases in these regions may outpace demand. India Ratings said that the country’ cement production capacity utilisation rate was 70% in the 2015 – 2016 period and that it was likely to decrease to 65% following the effects of demonetisation. It is expected to rebound back to 70% in the next financial year.

India: India Cement’s sales revenue has risen by 19% year-on-year to US$187m in the quarter than ended on 31 December 2016 from US$156m in the same period in 2015. Clinker and cement sales volumes rose by 22% to 2.36Mt from 1.94Mt. The cement producer said that it found the result ‘gratifying’ in view of the uncertainty created by the government’s demonetisation policy from November 2016 although the company had not experienced any negative impact itself. It also reported that a ‘steep’ price increase for petcoke and imported coal had been noted during the period.

Overall, India Cement’s income rose by 8% to US$558m for the nine months of 31 December 2016 from US$518m in the same period in 2015. Its profit rose by 78% to US$20.9m from US$11.7m.

India: Burnpur Cement has blamed an ‘irregular’ non-payment to its lenders on demonetisation and a depressed market. It added that it was discussing the matter with its lenders, including the option of restructuring the debt. The cement producer operates two plants in the east of the country.

A few days ago my family faced a financial crisis caused by demonetisation. The family piggy bank holds a number of one-pound sterling coins. However, the Bank of England is set to introduce a new 12-sided one-pound coin in March 2017 and withdraw the old type circular coin by the end of October 2017. Unfortunately the piggy bank in question is of the variety that can only be opened by smashing it. There followed various attempts to extract the coins via the narrow opening.

Now just imagine if a country of over 1.25bn inhabitants and a gross domestic product of US$8.7tr faced a similar problem. Well, you don’t have to imagine it because India’s demonetisation plan to remove 500 and 1000 rupee banknotes from circulation started in November 2016. Some commentators reckoned that the banknotes represented nearly 85% of its currency by value. Indian citizens then had until the end of December 2016 to take the old bank notes to a bank to have them exchanged. The government has said that the plan was conceived to cut corruption, increase tax revenue and reduce cash hoarding. However, critics have attacked the policy for unduly penalising the poorest members of society as they struggle to move from using cash to electronic methods.

That’s the background. Global Cement is interested in cement markets. Although its early days yet some reactions and data are starting to emerge. Ambuja Cement launched a marketing campaign in December 2016 to help its customers cope with a cashless business environment. The initiative has included working with a bank to operate a helpline assisting people in opening bank accounts as well as putting out the message in various media including sending one million text messages. Clearly, at least one of India’s major cement producers is taking the problems caused by demonetisation seriously.

Alongside this, various reports have trickled out since November 2016 trying to work out the effects of the financial transition on the cement industry. Firstly, the India Cements reported in mid-November 2016 in a financial report that demonetisation had not impacted its cement sales. Deutsche Bank Markets Research then predicted that the policy would reduce cement demand by up to 20% for the last few months of 2016 and then reduce growth by 3% in the first three months of 2017. Its analysts reckoned that the residential sector would suffer the most and that although infrastructure spending might offset this a little, reduced taxation from a punctured property market would also adversely affect infrastructure funding. A report in the Hindu newspaper in early December 2016 feared that cement demand might be reduced by up to 50% in November 2016. It also raised the concerns of the managing director of Shiva Cement who said that contractors were finding it difficult to buy raw materials and pay wages.

Now in early January 2017 the India Ratings and Research credit ratings agency released a research note predicting that cement production growth was likely to fall to 4% for the 2017 financial year ending on 31 March 2017 from a previous estimate of 6%. It reported that production growth rose by only 0.5% year-on-year in November 2016 following a growth rate of 4.3% from April to November 2016 and rates of 5.5% and 6.2% in September and November 2016 respectively. It added that the housing sector constitutes around 65% of cement demand and that this share is likely to fall.

After a strong start to the year the Indian cement industry was looking forward to a growth rate above 5% in its 2016 - 2017 financial year. The figures aren’t out yet and the year isn’t finished but it is looking likely that demonetisation, a direct government policy, has smashed demand for cement in India in the short term.

Global Cement would be interested to hear from any readers in India for their comments on demonetisation and its effect on the cement industry – This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

India: The India Ratings and Research credit ratings agency has said that demonetisation of the economy is likely to reduce growth in the cement industry by 2% to 4% in the 2016 – 2017 financial year that ends on 31 March 2017. Previously it had predicted growth of up to 6% in this period. The agency reported that cement production grew by 0.5% in November 2016 following rates of 5.5% and 6.2% in September and November 2016 respectively. It added that all India volumes fell by up to 25% in November and December 2016. The agency expects demand for cement from the housing sector will to decline further from its current contribution of 65% of all demand.

India: Ambuja Cement has launched a ‘Go Cashless’ campaign encouraging its business partners – retailers, contractors and masons - to adapt to cashless business transactions. The campaign follows the country’s decision to remove circulation of certain high denomination bank notes in November 2016. The campaign went live on 7 December 2016 and it is aimed to create awareness on various available cashless options amongst the cement producer’s business partners. Ambuja Cement is also working with ICICI Bank to launch a helpline to assist stakeholders open current accounts for regular business transactions.

“The ‘Go Cashless’ campaign is yet another endeavour empowering the construction community through knowledge transfer. We are successfully seeding innovative thinking at the grass-roots level and bringing information and technology to the forefront of all our esteemed business partners,’’ said Ambuja Cement’s managing director and chief executive .

The campaign has included sending out over 1,000,000 text messages, 200,000 Whatsapp messages and an educational radio campaign across 17 different stations in New Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and West Bengal. Ambuja Cement estimates that it has contacted 42,000 business partners via media channels and over 4.5 million via radio.