Displaying items by tag: Forecast
PCA forecasts slower growth in the US
21 November 2018A couple of long-running news stories popped up this week, led by the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) latest forecast for the US market. Chief economist Ed Sullivan and the Market Intelligence Group predict slowing cement consumption growth to 2020 as the recovery period ends following the financial crash in 2008. The background to this is an expected rise in interest rates dragging on the construction market, a limited boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts and rising debt levels hitting federal infrastructure spending.
This marks an abrupt turnaround from the PCA’s April 2018 forecast in which potential federal infrastructure spending was anticipated to kick in towards the end of 2019 creating 4% growth in 2020. To give the PCA credit, it did say at the time that this was contingent on a couple of key steps, including passage of an infrastructure bill, federal and state paperwork, bid letting and review and finally, contract awards leading to construction. Following the US mid-term elections in early November 2018 the prospect of an infrastructure bills seems remoter than before given the political differences between the US House of Representatives and the Senate. This may have been the final straw for the PCA and it adapted its forecast accordingly.
Graph 1: Cement shipments in the US, January – August 2013 - January – August 2018. Source: Portland Cement Association (PCA).
It is also worth reflecting on the third quarter financial results of the multinational cement producers over the last few weeks. CRH may have been crowing this week about how its US performance was driving its business in the wake of its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement and other assets, but many of the other multinational cement producers weren’t. HeidelbergCement, Buzzi Unicem and Titan all blamed the weather in the US for dragging on their results. LafargeHolcim said it suffered less with a ‘soft’ first quarter in 2018 followed by recovery.
The other story this week with relevance to the US was the continued speculation in the Canadian press about the future of the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec. The latest update is that the plant’s shareholders have asked the provincial government if they can swap the debt the province holds in the venture for equity. This has been seen as a potential bid to keep the company operational while it continues to hunt for a buyer. Rumours of a sale have swirled around since the start of 2018, with the Global and Mail newspaper naming HeidelbergCement as being potentially interested. Three bids have been reportedly made by unnamed parties but they were rejected for being too low. A slowing US cement market is particularly bad news for McInnis Cement. The plant is situated on the Atlantic Coast of Canada and exports to the US have been seen as a major part of its business. To this end it officially opened its marine terminal in the Bronx, New York in October 2018.
The main US market needs to find an alternative to the ‘fabled’ infrastructure bill if it wants better growth. Yet, reduced US cement consumption growth won’t help McInnis’ shareholders recoup the money they have sunk in the project. Somebody seems certain to lose in this situation and, with a protectionist incumbent in the White House, it seems likely to be somebody north of the border.
Portland Cement Association forecasts ebbing growth in 2019 and 2020
16 November 2018US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) forecasts that cement consumption growth will drop to 2.6% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020. This compares to 2.9% in 2018. The PCA’s Market Intelligence Group has blamed the softening on rising interest rates, local financial problems at the state level and a general end to the recovery period following the financial crash in 2008.
“We are expecting relatively modest but sustained interest rate increases after 10 years of low and stable rates,” said PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The Federal Reserve’s actions will gradually slow the construction sector’s growth due to, among other things, the higher mortgage rates for residential buildings and higher borrowing cost for non-residential buildings.” He added that tax cuts passed at the end of 2017 had boosted the overall economy but that rising debt levels was likely to frame the discussion of future federal public infrastructure spending.
French cement industry forecasts 3% growth in 2018
15 November 2018France: Bénédicte de Bonnechose, the president of the French cement industry union (SFIC), says that country’s cement market is expected to grow by 3% in 2018. She made the comments whilst unveiling local CO2 reduction targets by 2050, according to the Agence France Presse. The local industry recorded growth of 4% in 2017. She described 2018 as a ‘positive recovery’ with sustained growth following a good first half.
SFIC forecasts that new low-clinker cement products will enter the market by mid-2020. These products include EMC II / CM, EMC VI and LC3 types of cement. These should reduce the CO2 emissions related to current sold cement products by 35%. Other CO2 capture initiatives including Oxyfuel, Leiliac and calcium looping cleanker technologies were also mentioned.
HeidelbergCement warns of slower earnings so far in 2018
18 October 2018Germany: HeidelbergCement has warned that its result from current operations before depreciation will be lower than expected so far in 2018 due to poor weather in the US and rising energy costs. It maintained that its sales volumes and revenue for the first nine months of 2018 would be ‘within expectations.’ The building materials company also reassured investors that its group share of profit for 2018 would also be as expected. It will release its results for the third quarter of 2018 on 8 November 2018.
India Cements chief predicts upturn for southern market
21 September 2018India: N Srinivasan, the vice-chairman and managing director of India Cements, predicts that cement demand is improving in the south of the country. At the company’s annual general meeting in Chennai he said that demand for cement is expected to improve the 70% capacity utilisation rate recorded in the 2017 – 2018 financial year, according to the Financial Express newspaper. The region had a cement production capacity of 160Mt/yr but demand was only up to 80Mt.
He added that India Cements reported a utilisation rate of 71% in the previous financial year and that this had improved to 80% in the first quarter of the current year. He also expected that the second quarter would be better despite floods in Kerala and a transporters' strike.
Germany: ThyssenKrupp has decreased its earnings forecast for its 2017 – 2018 financial year due to the poor performance of its Industrial Solutions division. The division is expected to report a negative adjusted earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) of Euro200m in the third quarter of the year due to higher expected total costs, particularly for a cement plant in Saudi Arabia and two other industrial projects. The group said that the number of major projects in the cement and fertiliser sector had decreased ‘considerably,’ partly due to the production overcapacity in the cement market.
"It is important to me to call it what it is. The results of our analysis at Industrial Solutions are anything but satisfying. The structure of plant construction must be adjusted to the changed market conditions in order to achieve a turnaround and finally become competitive again. We must act swiftly here," said Guido Kerkhoff, chairman of the executive board of ThyssenKupp. The group has proposed focusing its Industrial Solutions division on small and medium-sized projects and targeting plant construction on the higher-margin service business.
In mid-2017 the group announced plans to reorganised its Industrial Solutions division, including the decision to cut 1500 jobs in operational areas.
Cuba: The Nuevitas cement plant expects to produce 0.12Mt of cement in 2018. Nearly 80% of this output will be used to build houses, according to the Adelante newspaper. The plant serves the Camagüey province as well as Las Tunas, Granma and Ciego de Ávila.
China: Anhui Conch expects that its profit will double year-on-year for the first half of 2018. The company reported an unaudited net profit of US$1.01bn in the first half of 2017. It has attributed the growth in profit to a ‘significant’ increase in the price of its products and an increase in revenue. The cement producer plans to release its half year report by the end of August 2018.
Saudi Arabia: Cement sales revenue is expected to fall quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2018 due to restructuring in the industry and holidays in the period. A report by Al Rajhi Capital found that cement sales volumes fell by 16.7% year-on-year in April and May 2018. 15 cement companies reported falling sales volumes, led by Riyadh Cement and Cement City with 44.1% and 37.5% declines respectively. Only two companies, Tabuk Cement and Hail Cement, reported growth. Total inventory for the industry grew by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter to around 36.2Mt at the end of May 2018. The financial services company forecasts that revenue in the cement sector will fall by 6% year-on-year.
ACC forecasts cement demand to grow by 7% in 2018
18 June 2018India: ACC forecasts that demand for cement will grow by up to 7% in 2018. However, intense competition and insufficient consumption will lead to excess capacity it added, according to the Press Trust of India. Demand is expected to benefit from government-based infrastructure projects, rural development and affordable housing schemes.
Around 66% of ACC’s cement demand came from the housing sector, followed by infrastructure with 18% and 16% from the commercial sector. The country has a total cement production capacity of 465Mt/yr but it is only producing 305Mt/yr, giving it an utilisation rate of 66%. Cement plants in the south of the country are pulling the rate down compared to northern, central and eastern regions. Excess capacity is expected to continue until 2019, with the increased outlays on housing, infrastructure development and agricultural sector initiatives.