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The European Commission’s decision to investigate Duna-Dráva Cement’s (DDC) purchase of Cemex Croatia sticks out in a busy news week. There have been a few noteworthy news stories this week from the Indonesian government making preparations to fight overcapacity, LafargeHolcim retreating from Chile, Cemex restructuring its management in Colombia after investigations into a land deal and the announcement of merger plans between two of the larger refractory manufacturers. Yet the commission’s probe is a response to what may be in effect a ‘land grab’ by DDC. How on earth did HeidelbergCement and Schwenk, the joint-owners of DDC, think they were going to pass this one past the relevant competition bodies?!

As the commissions describes it, the “proposed transaction would combine Cemex Croatia, the largest producer in the area, and DDC, the largest importer.” So far, so bad. Then add the observation that Cemex Croatia and LafargeHolcim control all the cement terminals in ports along the Croatian coast. Cemex has three cement plants in the south of the country with no nearby competition. Giving the owners of DDC those assets ties up the market southern Croatia nicely. Understandably, the European Commission has concerns.

Croatia has five cement plants. LafargeHolcim runs a 0.45Mt/yr plant at Koromačno and Nasicecement run a 0.6Mt/yr plant at Nasice. Cemex’s three plants are all in the south near Split within about 10km of each other. When Global Cement visited in late 2014 Cemex Croatia told us that the plants were so close together that the company considered them as one plant. The sites also share one quarry for their raw materials. Only one of three plants, Sv Juraj the largest, has a bagging unit and Sv 10 Kolovoz was mothballed due to poor market demand. Together the plants have a cement production capacity of 1.92Mt/yr. This gives Cemex 65% of the market by production capacity.

Describing the three plants as one certainly makes sense for a company that might have been considering selling them. However, it is a fair comment given the close proximity of the plants to each other and the joint-capacity below that of some of the larger single site multi-kiln plants around the world. In this sense, the real questions for the European Commission will be how much of a dent to competition will it make to hand over the area’s main importer to the area’s main producer?

Graph 1: Cement consumption in Croatia, 2011 - 2015 (Mt). Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics.

Looking at the national cement market since 2011 in Graph 1 using data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, sales volumes fell to a low in 2013 and have picked up since then, although not to the same levels. Prior to this cement sales halved from 2008 to 2013. Under these kinds of conditions Nexe Grupa, the owner of Nasicecement, filed with pre-bankruptcy settlements in 2013. HeidelbergCement expressed interest in the cement assets around this time, although nothing eventually happened. Imports of cement grew by 11% year-on-year to 312,000t in 2015 from 280,000t in 2014. This compares to a 1% increase to 2.36Mt in domestic cement sales in 2015.

As the commission suggests, combining the region’s biggest producer and its biggest importer seems like a recipe for reduced competition and inflated prices. This could be mitigated, in theory, if DDC decided to flood the region with imports from HeidelbergCement’s new assets from Italcementi once it completes its purchase of that company. Although a dominant player in a region undercutting its own prices seems far fetched. Theoreticals aside, it seems very unlikely that the European Commission will let the purchase go ahead without taking some sort of action.

Jamaica: Chris Dehring has resigned as chairman of Caribbean Cement with immediate effect. He was appointed chairman of Caribbean Cement in October 2014, months after joining the board of its parent company, Trinidad Cement, according to the Jamaica Observer. He has left the cement producer to commit to his next business venture in broadcasting. Previously, Dehring founded the Dehring, Bunting and Golding investment bank, and served as managing director of the 2007 ICC Cricket World Cup, chief marketing executive of the West Indies Cricket Board, manager at Citibank NA and chairman of LIME Caribbean/Cable & Wireless.

Indonesia: The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has reported that cement sales in September 2016 fell by 3.3% to 5.64Mt compared to August 2016. It blamed the decline on lower demand from the local housing industry. Cement sales fell sharply in Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, while eastern parts of Indonesia, including Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua, saw an increase in sales, according to the Jakarta Globe.

"Weakening sales may be due to the lower demand from houses and apartments. Demand from infrastructure projects has been picking up since the second quarter of 2016, but still can't make up for the lack of demand from the property sector," said ASI chairman Widodo Santoso.

National cement sales rose by 2.95% year-on-year to 44.7Mt in the first nine months of 2016 and the ASI expects sales growth of 3 – 4% for 2016. However, cement producers fear that this growth rate will be insufficient to sustain investments in new cement plants. The ASI says that cement production in Indonesia has exceeded demand by more than 30%.

Zimbabwe: Mortal Investments Manufacturing Company expects to complete construction of its US$10m cement plant in Redcliff by the end of October 2016. The Chinese investor started construction of the project in August 2016 and testing is set to begin by the end of October 2016, according to the Business Chronicle newspaper. Commissioning is scheduled for the end of 2016. The plant will use slag to make its cement.

Belgium: Data from the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) suggests that the carbon intensity of European Union (EU) cement increased from 2008 to 2014, according to analysis by the environmental campaign group Sandbag. It adds that the sector made greater strides in reducing emissions in the years prior to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Since 2011, the EU cement sector has increased exports of cement clinker outside the EU, demonstrating that the EU ETS has not made the sector globally uncompetitive.

“EU policymakers have overprotected the cement sector in the EU ETS to such an extent that companies have not taken any action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The EU’s approach is killing with kindness; by maintaining the status quo on free allocation of allowances they are making their own climate targets undeliverable,” said Wilf Lytton, analyst at Sandbag.

Sandbag say that this highlights the inability of the EU’s climate policy, as currently designed, to address European cement sector emissions. Meanwhile, low-carbon new entrant cement companies operating outside of the EU ETS have commercialised technologies to dramatically reduce the carbon footprint of cement, yet are struggling to scale-up as they fight through a mass of regulation and product standards that support the high-carbon status quo.

Research by Sandbag revealed in March 2016 that incentives in the design of the EU ETS have driven higher greenhouse gas emissions emissions in the cement sector.

Croatia: The European Commission has opened an investigation to check whether the proposed acquisition of Cemex Croatia by HeidelbergCement and Schwenk is in line with the European Union (EU) Merger Regulation. The commission has concerns that the proposed takeover may reduce competition for grey cement in Croatia. It will make its decision by 23 February 2017.

"The construction sector, like any other sector, needs competition. As cement is an essential part of the sector we need to make sure that consolidation does not lead to higher prices for construction companies and ultimately consumers in Croatia," said commissioner Margrethe Vestager.

The commission has concerns regarding the supply of grey cement in southern Croatia, including Dalmatia in particular, where Cemex Croatia operates three cement plants in Split and faces competition from DDC's imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is not an EU member. The proposed transaction would combine Cemex Croatia, the largest producer in the area, and DDC, the largest importer. The commission's initial investigation indicates that the proposed transaction may remove a significant competitor from an already concentrated regional market.

The remaining actual or potential suppliers may exercise only limited competitive pressure on the merged entity because of the transport costs to reach southern Croatia. Additionally, the domestic cement suppliers Cemex Croatia and LafargeHolcim control all the cement terminals in ports along the Croatian coast. The commission has preliminary concerns that the transaction may strengthen the market power of Cemex Croatia in southern Croatia and result in price increases for grey cement.

HeidelbergCement and Schwenk plan to acquire, via their joint subsidiary DDC, assets in Croatia and Hungary that currently belonging to Cemex. The Hungarian part of the transaction as been referred to the Hungarian competition authority, so the commission's investigation will focuses on the acquisition of Cemex's Croatian assets.

India: ACC has said that its new cement grinding plant at Sindri, Jharkhand will become operational in November 2016. This follows the start of commercial production of a new clinker production line at its plant at Jamul, Chhattisgarh in July 2016 and the start of that site’s grinding plant on 14 September 2016.

Ghana: The Cement Manufacturers Association of Ghana (CMAG) has asked the government to investigate all cement imports to the country. The association sent a letter on 6 October 2016 to the Commissioner of the Ghana Revenue Authority (Customs Division) concerning a Chinese vessel carrying 37,000t of cement anchored at Tema, according to the Daily Guide newspaper. The letter, copied to many other government departments, questioned whether licences to import cement to the country could be issued following changes in legislation.

Chile: LafargeHolcim has signed an agreement with Inversiones Caburga, part of the Hurtado Vicuña Group, to sell its 54.3% stake in Cemento Polpaico for US$225m. The transaction will be carried out by a public tender offer by Inversiones Caburga to all shareholders of Cemento Polpaico.

Cemento Polpaico operates one integrated plant and two grinding plants with an annual cement capacity of 2.3Mt/yr. The company is also a leading ready-mix concrete producer operating 25 plants and produces aggregates. The launch of the public tender offer is subject to the approval of the Chilean competition authorities, which is expected for the first half of 2017. Following the successful completion LafargeHolcim would exit Chile completely.

Indonesia: Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto has said that the government is preparing regulations to restrict new cement plant permits being issued in a bid to maintain stable cement prices. The ministry’s director general for chemicals, textile and miscellaneous industry, Achmad Sigit Dwiwahjono, has also confirmed the proposed regulation, according to the Jakarta Post. Airlangga added that his ministry has also been considering other measures to tackle cement oversupply.

The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has lobbied the government to take action on oversupply. Cement production capacity has nearly doubled from 59.3Mt/yr in 2012 to 92.7Mt/yr in 2016. However, demand is projected to only reach 65Mt in 2016, leaving a production oversupply of 27.7Mt.