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Yesterday, on 14 April 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast a 3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth contraction in 2020 due to negative economic effects from the coronavirus outbreak and its containment. Most regions around the world may experience negative growth in 2020 with exceptions only in so-called Emerging and Developing Asia and Low-income Developing Countries. This is just one projection among many coming out at the moment but the prognosis is downward. This begs the questions: how will cement companies cope?

Markets for building materials are not going to disappear in these conditions but demand looks likely to be reduced. Added to this, an industry that’s been facing increasing production overcapacity over the years may be challenged by additional competition effects. Here we will look at the debt profile of some of the major multinational cement producers outside of China. Please note that this is a cursory examination of corporate debt that only looks at simple financial indicators. Company financial officers want to present themselves in best possible light and will have alternatives that point to their strengths. For a detailed view we refer readers to the credit rating agencies and the companies’ published financial information directly.

Graph 1: Net debt and EBITDA for selected multinational cement companies in 2019. Source: Company financial reports and investor presentations. Note, Conversion for reporting currencies to US$, HeidelbergCement uses Result from Current Operations Before Depreciation and Amortisation (RCOBD) and UltraTech Cement results from 2018 – 2019 financial year.

Graph 1 presents a comparison between net debt and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in real terms. The bigger the gap between debt and earnings then the more one starts to wonder how it can be repaid. One feature to note in this graph is the size of the debt of the three largest producers – LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and Cemex – despite the fact that the companies are of different sizes. Cemex’s high debt to earnings ratio has been much commented on previously following its acquisition of Rinker just before the financial crash in 2007 and 2008. Unfortunately though, despite strenuous mitigation efforts, it remains prominent. Other positions to note are those of Buzzi Unicem and Dangote Cement, which have higher earnings than debts. These are envious positions to be in.

Graph 2: Net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA Margin for selected multinational cement companies in 2019. Source and notes as in Graph 1.

Graph 2 shows the ratio of net debt and EBITDA and the EBITDA Margin, a company’s earnings divided by its revenue. This graph better shows the relationship between debt and earnings. This can be seen well in a comparison between LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. The latter has higher debts with respect to its earnings. Its debt jumped in 2016 following its acquisition of Italcementi. LafargeHolcim’s debts ballooned followed its formation by merger in 2015 but this was in line with the jump in its equity. Where it struggled was with slow earnings in the years afterwards. However, bold divestments in South-East Asia in 2018 and 2019 appear to have fixed this.

Other companies to watch in the higher Net debt/EBITDA category include India’s UltraTech Cement and both of the large Brazilian multinationals, Votorantim and InterCement. In recent years UltraTech Cement has been busy buying up other cement producers in India. The difference between the Brazilian companies may reflect the fallout from their fight to buy Cimpor back in 2012. InterCement and its parent company Camargo Corrêa won the battle to acquire the Portuguese company but Votorantim was given selected international assets outside of Brazil. Unfortunately, the Brazilian market then collapsed and Camargo Corrêa has reportedly been trying to sell some or all of its cement assets ever since.

The other financial indicator in Graph 2 is EBITDA margin or earnings/operating profit as a percentage of revenue. Higher is generally seen as better here in comparison to other companies in the same sector. Note how LafargeHolcim is ahead of HeidelbergCement and Cemex, possibly due to its cost cutting and synergies since the merger. InterCement also has a relatively high EBITDA margin, boosted by a pickup by the Brazilian economy in 2019. Again, Buzzi Unicem and Dangote Cement stand out. Both of these are public companies but are associated with family or individual ownership, although in very different markets. Neither has really indulged in any large-scale acquisitions in recent years. Dangote Cement has been steadily expanding but through building its own plants and distribution networks.

We’ve not mentioned CRH as its figures seem ‘average’ compared to the other cement producers discussed here. Average is of course relative for one of the world’s biggest building materials manufacturers with a net of debt of US$7.4bn in 2019! Yet, despite battles with activist investors over board member pay aside, CRH might be the rare producer that knows when to stop expanding. Notably in 2018 after an expansion phase, including acquisitions of Ash Grove Cement and LafargeHolcim assets previously, it publicly decided in 2018 to take a pause. There may be weaknesses in the company’s balance sheets yet to be revealed but they are not apparent using these metrics.

In summary, we’ve focused on corporate acquisitions here as the main source of debt in cement producers. This is simplistic but timing is everything when taking on a large amount of debt. Cemex is still carrying the scars from buying Rinker over a decade ago and InterCement and HeidelbergCement, to a lesser extent, are ones to watch through the next bad patch. Other things to consider are a general move to a more regional model for these producers away from a global one. UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian sub-continent or Dangote Cement’s work in Africa are examples of this. This approach could go wrong if the sole regions they operate in suffer disproportionately from the economic fallout from coronavirus. Or, if any producer, even one with high debts, has the good fortune to be present in a territory that suffers less from the downturn it may benefit. On a final note, it is worth mentioning that government data reports that China’s domestic cement production capacity utilisation in the two-week period ending on 10 April 2020 bounced back to 95% following the relaxation of the lockdown.

Uzbekistan: Eurocement subsidiary Akhangarantsement has reported the successful installation of rotary kiln housing at its upcoming 3.0Mt/yr integrated Akhangarantsement plant. The Uzbekistan Daily newspaper has reported that workers completed internal and external welding on the kiln body, while work on jaw and hammer crushers for the raw materials and clinker grinding plants is ongoing. The project is on schedule for completion in mid-2020.

Greece: Titan Cement has published its integrated annual report for 2019, a year in which its net profit fell by 5.5% year-on-year to Euro50.9m from Euro53.8m in 2018 and sales rose by 8.0% to Euro1.61bn from Euro1.49bn. The company noted its ‘sustained performance and stronger cash flow generation’ throughout the year, with growing demand in the US and Southeastern Europe and the beginning of growth in Greece, in spite of a 7.0% year-on-year fall in cement volumes to 17.0Mt from 18.2Mt in 2018. Challenging conditions in Egypt and Turkey caused the group’s performance to deteriorate.

Titan Cement said that it is ‘on track to meet the Group’s 2020 sustainability targets and has already met ‘all targets related to emissions and water consumption.’
It acknowledged inevitable ‘short-term impacts’ of coronavirus, including reduced sales volumes ‘particularly and more severely in the second quarter of 2020,’ and has strengthened its liquidity position to Euro400m.

Egypt: Arabian Cement has reported an 88% decline in profit year-on-year to Euro 1.60m in 2019 from Euro13.3m in 2018. Sales were Euro181m, down by 5.5% from Euro 192m in 2018 due to depleted demand. Expansión newspaper called 2019 ‘the worst year in history for Egypt’s cement industry.’

Egypt: Misr Cement Qena has announced its donation of US$127,000 to the government’s Tahya Misr coronavirus rapid response fund. The fund aims to provide unemployed irregular workers with US$31.7/day, increasing the healthcare budget by 75% and providing ventilators to all who need them, as well as equipping hospitals with masks and detergent. Misr Cement Qena chairman Abd al-Fattah Harhour said, “We are very proud to take a leading part in the initiative as part of our ongoing social responsibility towards our country and our people.”

China: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has published data showing 94% domestic cement production capacity utilisation in the two-week period ending 10 April 2020, marking an end to coronavirus shutdowns in all provinces. Excavator sales in March 2020 numbered 49,400, up by 12% year-on-year from 44,300 in March 2019. Construction materials analyst Xu Xianchun said, "Demand in the construction industry has basically recovered to 2019's level, driven by new and resumed projects." Xinhua News Agency has reported that cement prices have also climbed on a month-by-month basis.

Colombia: Mexico-based Cemex has announced the resumption of operations at its 2.8Mt/yr Caracolito plant in Ibagué, Tolima Department on 13 April 2020. Noticias Financieras News has reported that Cemex Colombia will resume the supply of its products to ‘infrastructure and public works that cannot be suspended, as well as for emergency care projects and road projects.

Cemex will have to wait for the Colombian government to lift its coronavirus lockdown to restart supplies to customers.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement sold 236,000t of cement in the first three months of 2020, down by 11% year-on-year from 266,000t in first quarter of 2019. Its sales were US$9.36m, down by 10% from US$10.4m. Regulatory News Service has reported that Steppe Cement’s Kazakh cement market share decreased to 13% from 17% in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Steppe Cement estimated that Kazakhstan's cement demand will decrease in 2020 due to the uncertainty of the oil market and the negative effects of coronavirus. It says that its 3.6Mt/yr integrated Karaganda plant continues to operate at 100% capacity.

Ireland: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has postponed a four-day hearing over Irish Cement’s alternative fuel (AF) licence application, scheduled for May 2020, to an as yet unspecified date due to the coronavirus. Under the terms of the proposed licence, Irish Cement will be able co-process a maximum of 90,000t/yr of refuse-derived fuel (RDF), including tyres, in the single dry line of its 1.0Mt/yr Mungret plant in County Limerick. The EPA said that emissions from operations under the terms of the licence ‘will meet all required environmental protection standards.’

Irish Cement received its preliminary licence to burn refuse-derived fuel (RDF) in September 2019. The move attracted local resistance, with 4500 people participating in a protest on 5 October 2019.

The EPA has said that it will give all relevant parties notice ‘well in advance’ of the date of the rescheduled hearing, which will take place after the government lifts the country’s coronavirus lockdown. On 14 April 2020 County Limerick had 234 coronavirus cases out of an Irish total of 10,647.

Germany: Red Dot has awarded Vecoplan its Red Dot Design Award for the new Vecoplan VEZ 3200 pre-shredder for refuse-derived fuel (RDF). The prize ‘acknowledges the aesthetics and workmanship’ of the product, as well as its ergonomiocs and functionality. Vecoplan CEO Werner Berens said, “The design impacts on the machine construction, making the shredder easier to handle for operators.”